Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

So, how will the public perception of 13-0 affect the spreads for the Colts the rest of the year?

Sun. Dec. 18 1:00 p.m. ET Chargers
Sat. Dec. 24 4:15 p.m. ET at Seahawks
Sun. Jan. 1 1:00 p.m. ET Cardinals

If Dungy follows through and takes resting for the playoffs over perfection, will the early Colt lines be the best ones to fade?
The next two games are big ones for the opponents, though the Seahawks might not need the game if they clinch NFC home field (only the Bears and Bucs can match/beat their NFC record) and the Seahawks can fall back on the last game of the year against the Packers to clinch HFA. Of course, the Colts will be a home game for the Hawks.

Any strategy that we can plan for? We can discuss the Seahawks next week, if they win and the Bears and Bucs both lose.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

I don't think this is a sound and sure strategy. The line out this week (Indy -7.5) reflects pretty well Indy's perceived lack of motivation for the upcoming game. If this game were more meaningful for Indy, I think we'd be seeing Indy -10 or 10.5.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

Wagerline has the line at -9?

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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Wagerline has the line at -9?

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I saw this too. Do we think public betting is going to drive the line even further? I like SD at +10. Maybe it'll get there.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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Wagerline has the line at -9?

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That's a wrong line, it's 7.5 at most places. Besides the difference between 7.5 and 9 isn't that large anyway. I really think normally it would be 10.5/11.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

There's no way they're going to give everybody a month off before the playoffs. No coach would do this even if they weren't chasing history.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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There's no way they're going to give everybody a month off before the playoffs. No coach would do this even if they weren't chasing history.

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True, but there may be more opportunities for garbage time points when Dungy pulls the starters in the middle of the 3rd quarter.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

There is this big misconception of the term "giving starters rest".

I was listening to an ESPN program some time last week and they were speculating on this very topic. One point they brought up is the fact that you can indeed rest your "key" players such as Manning, Edge, and Harrison....but it's very difficult to rest starting linemen and defensive players. The rosters are simply not big enough. So, while you can rest these key players if needed, the main thrust of the team is still in place. I agree with what they had to say and do think the skilled position players might see some rest in the 3rd and 4th quarters much like you see in the last preseason game, but only if there is a comfortable lead.

Backdoor covers may happen but for the most part, the starting defensive players are still being mixed into the game. Benches are not deep enough. I'm not touching any of these games. There are better bets out there rather than taking something so unpredictable.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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There is this big misconception of the term "giving starters rest".

I was listening to an ESPN program some time last week and they were speculating on this very topic. One point they brought up is the fact that you can indeed rest your "key" players such as Manning, Edge, and Harrison....but it's very difficult to rest starting linemen and defensive players. The rosters are simply not big enough. So, while you can rest these key players if needed, the main thrust of the team is still in place. I agree with what they had to say and do think the skilled position players might see some rest in the 3rd and 4th quarters much like you see in the last preseason game, but only if there is a comfortable lead.

Backdoor covers may happen but for the most part, the starting defensive players are still being mixed into the game. Benches are not deep enough. I'm not touching any of these games. There are better bets out there rather than taking something so unpredictable.

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great points, NoChance.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

I would think Edge would get the most rest out of all the "key" players that the Colts have. He is on pace for over 400 carries this season which is a ton for a RB to have. Plus a RB would not have to worry about rust since there isn't as much timing involved like the QB/WR have to worry about losing with too much rest.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

I don't know how anyone could think the Colts might be counterfeit, and even whether the lines are truly inflated is somewhat debateable. There are certain outstanding teams that are so dominant, no matter how much they keep winning and covering, no matter how 'public' they become, the lines are never able to catch up with them.

The only reason the lines don't go through the roof is because there are "sharps" out there (who seem to know everything about square line movements, over-adjustments, regression, fading the public, etc. but nothing about sports) who are willing to fade these teams, on the perception of some kind of elusive "value" (I know a guy who bet against the Bulls in the NBA Finals all six times using this philosophy). Why be one of them?

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

I'd seen these points too. I'm a Colts fan, so I've followed them for years. The thing that makes this team better than the past couple years is the ability to produce long, clock-killing drives since it allows their defense to get off the field for a rest. Since the defense is predicated on speed, this is essential.

If Dungy pulls the first string offense, the defense will struggle to keep up, get fatigued, and possibly injured.

Most pundits seem to think losing Manning, Harrison, or James would kill the Colts. This may be true; certainly it is with Manning, but Harrison and James' backups get more playing time and would be more ready to go. But an injury to the defensive stars (Freeny, Mathis, Sanders) would be almost as costly. And the only way to avoid overplaying them (with the limited rosters) is to keep playing the first-string O.

I think Dungy knows this, and expect we'll see the first-string offense for at least three quarters against SD and Seattle, and a quarter or a half against Arizona.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

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I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. They've played 4 games against good teams:

2 against Jax, 7 & 8 pt wins.
@Cin 8 pt win
v.Pitt 19pt win.

Also credit for a 19pt win @ a decent NE team.

The rest has been a joke: Bal, Cle, Tenx2, SF, StL, Houx2.

I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far.

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That's a valid point. But they've easily handled everything that's come their way, which is all they can do (and being able to consistently destroy bad teams is just as important as winning the tough games as far as ATS is concerned).

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I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

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You're probably right, but more because variance would be more likely to catch up to them than any on-the-field reason. They're unquestionably the best team in the NFL, and it's not close.

Are they one of those super elite teams who can keep outrunning the line (almost) week after week? Maybe not, but they have all the makings of one. I decided months ago that no matter how tempting the line looked, I wouldn't fade them all season. It's a rule that's done well for me so far, and I'm not about to break it now.

There are so many better values out there.

Re: Fade the Colts the rest of the season?
 

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I don't think it's ever smart to fade the great teams, much less the hands down best team in the league, unless you think that both the lines are inflated and the team is somewhat counterfeit.

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I won't argue that Indy is at all counterfeit, but keep in mind they have played probably the easiest schedule in the NFL so far. They've played 4 games against good teams:

2 against Jax, 7 & 8 pt wins.
@Cin 8 pt win
v.Pitt 19pt win.

Also credit for a 19pt win @ a decent NE team.

The rest has been a joke: Bal, Cle, Tenx2, SF, StL, Houx2.

I'm not saying it's easy to go 8-0 against these teams, nor that their 5 solid wins aren't impressive. But if they play even an average schedule, I doubt they're 13-0.

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by the time they get to the playoffs they will have played a fairly tough schedule, and they have been really damn good so far