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- - really? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=396278)

PokerBob

12-11-2005 05:47 PM

really?

villain here is 50/14/3 over only 75 hands. I have seen none of his SD's. Am I this unlucky? What's your play here?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, MP folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB folds, Hero jfal;kjf;kj?

Entity

12-11-2005 05:49 PM

Re: really?

I'm not 3-betting and I'm not folding.

12-11-2005 05:51 PM

Re: really?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not 3-betting and I'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerBob

12-11-2005 05:52 PM

Re: really?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not 3-betting and I'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is your plan for the river?

POKhER

12-11-2005 05:53 PM

Re: really?

He's got JT or TT.
Edit: ohh his stats, hmm he could have a T but the turn raise is odd so i reckon its better than one pair.

Call down and hope the board rivers a .... 5... then pray he held JT.

if you 3bet, JT will cap(TT also obviously)... And folding when you have outs blows. Also pot will be bigger on river and we all know folding a big pot sucks too.

So i want to see SD and i dont want to get capped so its a call.

12-11-2005 06:02 PM

Re: really?

Plan for the river? Pray that a nine of clubs falls, or as one of the other posters says hope for the five. Regardless, I am check/calling because I'll be wondering for at least five minutes about what he had. And for me, thats worth it.

MicroBob

12-11-2005 06:06 PM

Re: really?

his stats are rather maniac-like.
Yup...he might have you beat. But he could easily have AJ or even AT here with stats like that so call-down.

He could even be on a flush draw here (most likely with hearts of course...but maybe As9s and he's ultra-happy about top-pair AND nut-draw or J9 and he's got top-pair and straight-draw).

If he has JT then you have outs-a-plenty (9,s 8's, 5's and Q's).
Even if he has 97 or 9Q you have outs.

jba	12-11-2005 06:10 PM

Re: really?

I'm getting to showdown as cheaply as possible.

Spicymoose

12-11-2005 06:12 PM

Re: really?

He has either JT or 99. 6 combos of 99, and 4 combos of JT, but his play is more consistent with JT, so I think it is more likely. You must call the turn because if you arn't ahead, you still have probably 12 outs. On the river, the pot is around 12 BB, so you don't have to be right that often. If you think he will play 99 like this as little as 5% of the time, you have to call the river.

Edit: I guess he could also have QJ, KJ of hearts, or occasionally KQ of hearts, although that is pretty rare.

jba	12-11-2005 06:14 PM

Re: really?

TT/JJ are not out of the question

neither is 55/88

27offsooot

12-11-2005 06:18 PM

Re: really?

You have an overpair vs. a LAGGY opponent on a semi-dangerous board who has shown a lot of aggression. Plus you have outs. How is this not a routine call down UI? I know u've been struggling and u're questioning a lot, but i can't imagine three betting or folding here. The only play is to call down.

Spicymoose

12-11-2005 06:18 PM

Re: really?

[ QUOTE ]
TT/JJ are not out of the question

neither is 55/88

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I missed those. TT and JJ are much less likely because of preflop however. So instead of 12 total combos, I would say that all of these hands together add up to 10 combos.

My initial math analysis was off because I didn't include the possibility of QhJh or KhJh. So we have somewhere around 14 combos of hands that are beating us at the river, and 2 that we beat. If you add 99 into the mix with any probability, that makes it even more. I still think we can call the river UI.

jba	12-11-2005 06:20 PM

Re: really?

spicy,

I agree with you, just nitpicking on a pure hand reading basis. i think your 10/12 discount is probably pretty close.

Spicymoose

12-11-2005 06:22 PM

Re: really?

Thanks for the nitpick. I think I am capable of reading hands, I just get to lazy, and don't put enough effort into it. I really need to start to change this.

27offsooot

12-11-2005 06:25 PM

Re: really?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TT/JJ are not out of the question

neither is 55/88

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I missed those. TT and JJ are much less likely because of preflop however. So instead of 12 total combos, I would say that all of these hands together add up to 10 combos.

My initial math analysis was off because I didn't include the possibility of QhJh or KhJh. So we have somewhere around 14 combos of hands that are beating us at the river, and 2 that we beat. If you add 99 into the mix with any probability, that makes it even more. I still think we can call the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sets seem less likely also b/c some % of the time (a large in my opinion), players like this don't raise the flop with sets with two people behind them. Your hand analysis is fine. But u can also throw in A9h, AJh, and random crap hands. He is v. aggressive, although over a small sample, so I think u have to add in the idiot factor.

Edit- u're not good 50% of the time, but u're ahead at least 10%, so call.

PokerBob

12-11-2005 07:05 PM

ok...called...now a river line please....

MrWookie47

12-11-2005 07:06 PM

Re: ok...called...now a river line please....

not the pair of the board you wanted to see, but I think I c/c.

Spicymoose

12-11-2005 07:08 PM

Re: ok...called...now a river line please....

I don't see how that T changed anything we were saying earlier about calling the river. A jack, on the other hand, would make things tricky.

POKhER

12-11-2005 07:17 PM

Re: ok...called...now a river line please....

Well as he's aggressive there was slight chance he had ATo... so now we're fecked.

However raising turn with AT after a jack hits is DAM AGGRESSIVE but the same size is to small to pin down a precise AF so 3 is probably due to sample size.

I'd say we can C/C still.

PokerBob

12-11-2005 08:23 PM

results

Spicymoose

12-11-2005 08:26 PM

Re: results

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about the river call. Is it a huge error given the pot size?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get why you keep asking questions instead of responding to what other people write. Agree with them; disagree with them; but don't just listen to them, respond.

A few people have already said it is not a huge error to call. I still don't think it is.

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