Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

This isn't intended as a bad beat post, because I'd like to know whether I played this wrong.
Compliments of PokerGeek
PokerStars NL Hold'em Tournament - 100/200 Blinds (7 handed)

Starting Stacks
Seat 2: MP (Hero) (T6984)
Seat 3: LP (T3062)
Seat 4: CO (T4634)
Seat 5: Button (T6560)
Seat 7: Small blind (T5653)
Seat 8: Big blind (T7650)
Seat 9: UTG (T10969)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero raises (1000), LP folds, CO folds, Button folds, Small blind folds, Big blind calls (800)

Flop: (T2100) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Big blind checks, Hero bets (1600), Big blind raises (3600), Hero all-in (5959), Big blind calls (2359)

Turn: (T9659) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(0 players)</font>


River: (T9659) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(0 players)</font>


Final Pot: T14218

Results in white below:
<font color="#FFFFFF">Big blind has 9d 9h (three of a kind, Nines)
MP has Ac Ah (a pair of Aces)
Outcome: Villian wins T14218
</font>
When I re-raised him on the flop, I'd hoped he was on a strong K or flush draw. I figured he wouldn't have called $800 with something as weak as K-9. But should I have been more cautious at this point? At that point, I didn't think a call was right. it was either push or fold. I'd love your thoughts.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

I'd say about 90% of the time your looking at Ak KQ KJ here and you made the right play. You got 2-outed... [censored] happens.

Though im a little more confused about the 5xBB bet preflop. You want 1-2 opponents to call you preflop.. And a raise that puts people in for 15-20% of their stack is not going to give you that. While you got the call from the BB, most of the time this is going to get folded around..

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

You raised enough that he didn't have the right implied odds to fish for a set. That means that even if you go ahead and pay him off when he hits one, it's still a mistake for him to call pre-flop.

I generally don't like raising a larger than ordinary amount with AA, because I think it sends up red flags, and I don't want my opponents to know I don't have AA when I make a standard raise.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

Sometimes they flop a set. Other times they have KQ.

NH.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You raised enough that he didn't have the right implied odds to fish for a set. That means that even if you go ahead and pay him off when he hits one, it's still a mistake for him to call pre-flop.

I generally don't like raising a larger than ordinary amount with AA, because I think it sends up red flags, and I don't want my opponents to know I don't have AA when I make a standard raise.

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True.. but your assuming the 99 knew he was up against an overpair. Way to often I see overbets preflop signalling AK or AQ (though JJ comes up occasionally too). A flop of a 9 OR all undercards (or no A or K) could have been exactly what the BB was looking for as he did not put you on an overpair.

Which brings up the dilemma of AA.. bet to much and you get no action... bet to little and you give the odds to be drawn out against. Hence the saying, "with AA you usually win a small pot, or lose a massive one"

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You raised enough that he didn't have the right implied odds to fish for a set. That means that even if you go ahead and pay him off when he hits one, it's still a mistake for him to call pre-flop.

I generally don't like raising a larger than ordinary amount with AA, because I think it sends up red flags, and I don't want my opponents to know I don't have AA when I make a standard raise.

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So calling a 800 raise to stack someone of upwards of 9500 chips is not getting the right IMPLIED odds?

If I have 9s and I think I can take someone's remaining chips, then those are the implied odds. He had nowhere near the immediate odds to call the bet, but the BB didn't know he had Aces. Original raiser has a wider range that include AK, AQ, KQ, maybe even AJ. If I was the BB, I call it.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

As a point of clarification, I'd raised T$1000 a few times when opening so while the consensus seems to be it was an overbet, it wasn't an USUSUAL bet size. i.e. larger than previous ones.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

Sorry for the confusion, when I say it's a mistake for 99 to call pre-flop, I mean that Hero, knowing he holds Aces, has raised enough that a hand like 99 will not have the correct implied odds to call. I don't know where you are getting 9K from, Hero has ~7K in his stack and BB has to call 800, which means he's got to take Hero's stack better than 1/10 times PLUS avoid losing his stack when they both flop a set or an overpair.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

This is a bad beat post, to me. Everyone goes broke in this spot. Don't worry about it. Only had on that flop that beats you is pocket nines, to me. KK would have pushed to that raise and the other set potentially would have laid it down in a $55 MTT.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

Not a chance 55 was laying this down... ever. If, for whatever reason, he called preflop with 55, and then folds when a 5 hits.. why in the hell was he in the hand then? To hit a 1 carded straight?

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

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Not a chance 55 was laying this down... ever. If, for whatever reason, he called preflop with 55, and then folds when a 5 hits.. why in the hell was he in the hand then? To hit a 1 carded straight?

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I'm pretty sure he meant the 55 was folding pre-flop, though he did word it ambiguously. But he was definitely talking about KK would have played pre-flop in the same sentence, so that's what I took him to mean.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not a chance 55 was laying this down... ever. If, for whatever reason, he called preflop with 55, and then folds when a 5 hits.. why in the hell was he in the hand then? To hit a 1 carded straight?

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I'm pretty sure he meant the 55 was folding pre-flop, though he did word it ambiguously. But he was definitely talking about KK would have played pre-flop in the same sentence, so that's what I took him to mean.

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O... yeah just reread that. Makes sense that way too :-)

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

Sure, tripping a pair on the flop is lucky, but did villain make a mistake? I don't think so.

What you have is less important than what your opponent thinks you have. While you say that your 5X BB pre-flop raise was not unusual, it often represents a mid-pair that does not especially want to be called or an Ax less than K. Since, heads up, pockets nines will play well against smaller pairs or AT AJ AQ, villain was right to call. He was up there in M, and reasoned, rightly, that he could grab your stack if he tripped up on the flop and you had a strong holding, and could fold if he didn't (losing T$800 on T$7650, and letting you catch up to his stack) He would be is pretty much the same situation as he is now if he didn't flop trips, but be way ahead if he did flop.

Not so much a bad beat as being outplayed. BTW: Did you have any reads on villain's style of play? If so, his raise on the flop may have been a warning. There was T$2100 in the pot at the flop, you bumped T$1600. He raised T$2000 into a $3700 pot. This can not be seen as any type of probe or continuation... he wasn't drawing, he was made. Depending on his playing style it COULD have been K-9 suited that became two-pair (loose style) or even KK that tripped (tight).

Since you had no overt pressure to raise your stack NOW, (M=23.28) I don't think you should have gone all-in at that point unless you had a definte read on him.

While we're talking about reads, do you think he had a read on you? Do you vary your raises, or do you fall into a pattern? Did he take a flyer that paid off, or did he read you as beatable?

Of course, hind-sight is always 20/20.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

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Sure, tripping a pair on the flop is lucky, but did villain make a mistake? I don't think so.


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By the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, he made a mistake. He called with a hand that he would have folded if he knew what Hero held (ie, he had neither the correct expressed or implied odds to see the flop. That fact that Hero could have held other cards is what enabled Hero to induce a mistake by Villain, but it doesn't mean Villain did not make a mistake in this sense.

Re: Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not so much a bad beat as being outplayed. BTW: Did you have any reads on villain's style of play? If so, his raise on the flop may have been a warning. There was T$2100 in the pot at the flop, you bumped T$1600. He raised T$2000 into a $3700 pot. This can not be seen as any type of probe or continuation... he wasn't drawing, he was made. Depending on his playing style it COULD have been K-9 suited that became two-pair (loose style) or even KK that tripped (tight).

Since you had no overt pressure to raise your stack NOW, (M=23.28) I don't think you should have gone all-in at that point unless you had a definte read on him.

Of course, hind-sight is always 20/20.

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I did not really have a good read on him. He was a fairly new comer to the table. However, I had raised two or three times in two orbitz and he could have thought I was stealing certainly. I wasn't I had a pretty good card rush, but that's besides the point.

In hindsight, I think you're right. I bet, he called. flop. he checked, I make what is likely just a continuance bet. He re-raises me.

That should have been a bright red flag. If I folded at that point, I would still have been in it with a shot at the tourney. I just think it's hard to get away from AA without some really obvious "You're so beat" sign.