Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Garland, i hope you don't mind. I'm reposting this from the medium stakes forum...I had very strong feelins about this hand and was shocked by the replies. I'm very curious to see what y'all think

Here's the thread if you're curious...

Opponent is very tight, but his preflop raise selection is wide: VP$IP = 16.52 and Preflop raise % = 7.83 over 345 hands

What do you think?

Garland

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP3 ($517.60)
CO ($253.70)
Button ($78.80)
SB ($418.95)
Garland ($482.40)
UTG ($399.90)
UTG+1 ($539.60)
MP1 ($231.90)
MP2 ($460.70)

Preflop: Garland is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds,MP3 raises to $14, SB calls, Garland raises to $52, MP3 calls $52, 1 fold.

Flop: ($118) K, 6, Q (3 players)
Garland checks, MP3 bets $76, Garland folds.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

I hate this as played.

Why not bet the flop and fold to a raise? 10 10, JJ, AK are all impossibilities?

This just seems incredibly weak tight. If this is going to be the play, why not just push preflop?

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

weak

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Given people's tendencies to slowplay, I would imagine you're facing AK here a good amount of the time.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Cause then everything but KK folds.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Real Weak.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cause then everything but KK folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

and if checked to, does AK bet this flop? JJ? AQ?

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cause then everything but KK folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if you understood what he was saying

[ QUOTE ]
If this is going to be the play, why not just push preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What he was probably trying to say is (correct me if i'm wrong Mens)... If your going to play this so weak tight postflop because you're gonna be scared of the nuts then you're probably better off just pushing preflop.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

I'm not sure I see your point.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hate this as played.

Why not bet the flop and fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

I was just answering why we shouldn't push preflop. It just so happens I agree with the flop play.

Hoping your opponent has an unlikely AK or JJ is just too much for me.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Huh? Unlikely why?

You can't put him on AK here? I'd certainly bet that. I'd also at least take a shot with JJ (which, by the way, would have worked in Villain's case here).

Also, you wouldn't check KK here?

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

There are 8 combinations of AK left. There are 6 combinations of TT and 6 more of JJ. There are only 3 combos of KK and 3 combos of QQ and of course 1 where we tie with AA.

We win - 20 times
we tie - 1 time
we lose - 6 times

Of course AK, TT, and JJ MIGHT fold preflop, but i find this doubtful

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Why can't he have JJ/TT/AK here? IF he has AK, I think he's going to be able to outplay you on the turn, but I think you have to bet 2/3 on the flop here; then shut down.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

I'm also reposting this from the MSNL forum.

[ QUOTE ]

Ok to understand why a weaker line is better than a lead on this flop you have to put yourself in the villains shoes. Based on the information Garland provided the Villain is your average weak/tight.

Both Garland and Villain have deep stacks. Villain raises to 10, then Garland (correctly) re-raises him to 50.

If YOU were the Villain what would you do here (with deep stacks) holding KK?

I'd fold. I really would, considering the stack sizes. Some of the looser players would push. Most "Weak/Tight" Players here would think folding PF to be far too weak, while pushing against a very likely AA as not a very prudent play.

So he calls.
[Keep in mind hes 16% VPIP and a very weak/tight player. It is VERY unlikely he's making this play with 45s, j10s, 22, 1010, or JJ]

Now lets assume villain called with 45s, j10s, 22, 1010, or JJ.

Villain says to himself, "Ok, This guy just re-raised me 50 preflop and when the flop landed high he checked it to me..." Do you REALLY think your average weak/tight player is going to bet into a very likely C/R against another deep stack?

<font color="red"> Would you guys really bet this if checked to with a hand like JJ/1010 or 22? I think thats far too loose... Guys raises you to 50 PF and then checks to you on the flop? Cmon... It smells fishy. </font>

Regardless, understand this guy is just as scared of Garlands hand as Garland is of his. In fact less so, since this guy (again) is a weak/tight.

Guys I implore you to consider stack sizes because it is the most important factor. Shortstacked players are more likely to make moves and are less scared of their plays, for right reason. &lt;Most of those reason's revolving over building a large pot and implied odds&gt;

This player is not making a move here with anything except QQ-KK-AK. He would bet AK, I'll give you that BUT again he won't have AK often enough here to warrant a lead.

I agree 100% with Garlands play, and ask people who disagree to strongly reconsider the play and understand ALL of the factors before making an argument.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also play on 1/2 and the 2/4 tables is very different than the very aggressive play on the 5/10 10/20 and 50/100 tables. So keep that in mind, and this isn't shorthanded.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Estimation -

If I am villain in this hand, and Garland checks the flop to me, I am betting from 1/2 pot to full pot 95% of the time with AK, JJ, 10 10, or 78s.

Edited to add: Granted, I hear you about Villain's possible holdings, but he's got AK or JJ here more than often enough for me not to just give up the pot.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
Estimation -

If I am villain in this hand, and Garland checks the flop to me, I am betting from 1/2 pot to full pot 95% of the time with AK, JJ, 10 10, or 78s&gt;

[/ QUOTE ]

I should check monsters more often.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
Would you guys really bet this if checked to with a hand like JJ/1010 or 22? I think thats far too loose... Guys raises you to 50 PF and then checks to you on the flop? Cmon... It smells fishy.


[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that if i'm villian, i'm more inclined to bet this flop with JJ/TT/22 than i am to bet it with AK/KK/QQ. When i have 22, betting is the only way i can win.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would you guys really bet this if checked to with a hand like JJ/1010 or 22? I think thats far too loose... Guys raises you to 50 PF and then checks to you on the flop? Cmon... It smells fishy.


[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that if i'm villian, i'm more inclined to bet this flop with JJ/TT/22 than i am to bet it with AK/KK/QQ. When i have 22, betting is the only way i can win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aggie, You missed your set and your facing a large hand on a large board. You aren't the least bit worried your walking into a trap c/r?

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Sure. I'm worried about it. I love to know if I'm getting trapped. So I bet.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aggie, You missed your set and your facing a large hand on a large board. You aren't the least bit worried your walking into a trap c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 22 and missed my set....Sure i'm worried about a c/r but i can't win if i don't bet so i bet anyway. When i get checkraised i have a very easy decision. It's basically like a continuation bet when you brick the flop. Sure somebody might have flopped something but you don't know that unless you bet to find out.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Man, Garland was just castigating me for folding a nut flush on a paired board, but at least I was facing a reraise there.

This is baffling.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

There are players I might make this fold against as well but I've played a hell of a lot more than 345 hands with them.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

why is this cross posted?

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

What does villian think that Garland has when Garland checks the flop?

-SmileyEH

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

i like it.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

this hand is appalling. is an explanation even required?

fine, here's one: the preflop calling range of a random opponent with those stats includes *almost every hand he raised preflop*. You can profitably bet this flop to win the existing pot when expecting no action from worse hands. You can almost certainly expect action from AK (hey, a worse hand!) because AK calls ~50%+ preflop and puts more money in on this flop 100% of the time. check-folding is just bizarre.

i don't know any game online where people are only calling reraises from random players with QQ+. if you think for some reason that your opponent can put you squarely on AA-QQ when you reraise preflop and play accordingly, uhm, adjust. it takes a sophisticated read to make the play garland made on this flop (tons of info is required), and you just don't have that in most situations. if garland had it he shouldn't have posted the hand.

is this an actual q? i mean, wtf?

and, uh, your opponent can call without sufficient "implied odds" when he has position and you've shown a willingness to fold when faced with resistance or pressure on a significant % of flops w/your 'preflop reraise' hand range. his post-flop 'steal/fold equity'is more than enough to make up for whatever he loses by not making a superior hand and getting paid often enough.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

You have some good points, but:

[ QUOTE ]
the preflop calling range of a random opponent with those stats includes *almost every hand he raised preflop*.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. I think he would release at least 75% of the hands to the size of my re-raise. He's raising pre-flop light--almost 8% of his hands and probably open-raises with a very broad range. This would include KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, AQ, AJ and AT and probably some other assorted suited connectors. It was kind of subtle, and I don't know if anyone paid attention, but SB called the original $14 raise so my re-raise to $52 was bigger than it would be if it were just the original open-raise. The original raiser should be releasing all of the aforementioned hands.

[ QUOTE ]
You can almost certainly expect action from AK (hey, a worse hand!) because AK calls ~50%+ preflop and puts more money in on this flop 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, suppose he has AK. I bet 1/2 pot or 3/4 pot and he flat calls. Now what? I've got to shut down, right? I give up the initative, then I'm almost certain to face a big bet on the turn or the river putting me in a big quandry.

Garland

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

"The original raiser should be releasing all of the aforementioned hands."

Should be. You never steal in this spot? You think he never thinks you're trying to steal in this spot? I haven't played a player yet (and I've played a ton of players) who do what they 'should do', even vs. very tight reraisers. "I'm bored, let's play" alone should put a 10% call frequency across the board for all of those hands. Every pocket pair that raised called the reraise (see: another active thread). If you agree this is true, and that your opponent doesn't attempt steal raises with underpairs on this flop, then you must agree that a bet has a positive expectation even if villain never gives action with a worse hand. But he will.

You're in a tricky spot on the turn if your opponent flat calls a bet. But check-folding this flop is undoubtedly wrong unless you know something specific (about preflop calling range or his flop action frequency w/different hands, i.e. he will only bet a set).

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
What does villian think that Garland has when Garland checks the flop?

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

If I was villain &amp; i for some bizarre reason called that large raise I'd think... "Ok this guy just made a huge PF re-raise and checked it on a KQX board...Something doesn't seem right, CHECK."

Unless I had a set of Kings or Queens.
Then its, "Haha I caught a lucky flop on the bastard, I know he's gotta have AK/AA and his stacks mine, BET!"

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

I'm fairly glad you are posting again. You are sweet.

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

Guys, I'd make a standing bet for $250.

* Provided Garland still has the Hand History or can remember the name of the villain
* and the villain isn't blocked from searching
* and the villain is sitting at a table or somewhere we can communicate with him
* and remembers this hand
* and doesn't lie

That the villain discloses the fact that he flopped a set of Kings/Queens. 1:1 odds.

However unfortunately I don't think this bet capable of being fulfilled...because of all the "ands".

However if someone wants to take the bet and actually try and see it through to the end, with Garlands help...my moneys up there.

Edit: This should be easy money because villains only .8% to have KK or QQ and only 13.3% to hit a set if he holds those hands, Your looking at a .005% chance at most. So basically your getting an insane return against my money (i feel like an idiot) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: This would really be an insurmountable waste of time, and a very results orientated thing to do... I cannot be results orientated so I'd actually rather not know what he had...BUT! penguins can't fly.

Edit: I just thought this post needed a third and final "Edit:"

Edit: Ok...last one I promise!

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
You never steal in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. No need to at these stakes.

[ QUOTE ]
You think he never thinks you're trying to steal in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm about as tight as they come if he's paying any attention at all. My raises and re-raises especially from blinds often command respect.

This is fairly small stakes, and I think we play fairly straightforward, but it's an awfully big call and an awfully big gamble by him if he's calling with the extremely marginal hands I've listed before.

There is a saying: "Sometimes you have to fold the winning hand to be a winning player." Obviously, I'm not sure if this is one of the cases as I wouldn't post it otherwise; it's the first time I've ever folded AA so easily post-flop. I'm eliciting opinions from other players and so far it seems that in general, the tighter players agree with check-folding, while the looser players think leading the flop and shutting down is proper. Opinions are still about half and half. At least no one thought check-calling or check-raising is correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Garland

Re: Interesting AA post by Garland from medium stakes
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm eliciting opinions from other players and so far it seems that in general, the tighter players agree with check-folding, while the looser players think leading the flop and shutting down is proper.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is the age old opinion of me and just about every other man around the globe that, " Tighter is usually better ."