AKo in the CO
 

QTip's recent JJ hand reminded me of this one which I thought was interesting...

Most players are pretty loose and bad. MP1 is pretty tight so the cap likely means QQ+ and maybe AK. MP2 is especially loose and terrible.

5/10 (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.8 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero...

Re: AKo in the CO
 

You're getting waaaaay too much to fold here. Peel one off.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

I think this hand is a lot more complicated than that, but yeah the pot is pretty damn big.

How many outs are you giving Hero?

At what pot size would you change your mind?

Re: AKo in the CO
 

I'm peeling, but a little part of me is hoping I don't turn an ace or especially king. FWIW, I'm not the opponent (I don't think, anyway), but I'm much more apt to cap with AK from OOP if there are 1 or more bad players in the pot as well.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

you have 4.5 outs, peel!

Re: AKo in the CO
 

im folding this flop, you had a chance to hit and you missed. If this guy is that tight than you could have no solid outs and be drawing to two running cards. At best you have 6 outs in which case you have the odds, but the hands going to SD with you or without. I say watch and take notes.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
you have 4.5 outs, peel!

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting 4.5?

I say 3.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

You could even discount a little further, like to 2.5 or so, based on the possibility that one of the donks just reverse dominated you on the flop.

But the pot is ginormous, the donks will pay off (even if the capper won't) if you catch your ace and it's good, and you'll actually probably have odds to continue if you turn a gutshot.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
You could even discount a little further, like to 2.5 or so, based on the possibility that one of the donks just reverse dominated you on the flop.

But the pot is ginormous, the donks will pay off (even if the capper won't) if you catch your ace and it's good, and you'll actually probably have odds to continue if you turn a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, don't worry. I wasn't planning on folding this puppy.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

I understand the desire to peel here, but how can you find value in it. For the sake of discussion, MP1 has QQ, giving you Two clean overcards. Now you have two other players to consider, a flush draw on the board, you have to instantly discount 2 outs at least partially, plus a lame little str8 draw out there that you could be drawing with, and the possibility of reverse domination. While the pot is HUGE no doubt, peeling one now is just grounds for folding on the turn. What card are you hoping for? An Ace, a King, a str8 draw card? Now lets re-open MP1's hand range and he could already have two of your outs in his hand. In this case he has JJ and your drawing to a straight and praying the board doesnt pair.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

Image questions aside, I don't think that folding the flop here is bad, for many of the reasons you listed. But I do think that there is value in peeling, albeit very slight value if so.

Yes, it's very possible that you could be drawing to only the runner runner straight, and at the same time having to dodge another spade. But it's also possible that MP1 has QQ &amp; nobody has the flush draw, or that MP1 has picked up on the loose/terrible read Hero has on the two other opponents and is trying to bull Hero over with an AK of his own, or that MP1 got up to take a whiz and his 8 year-old son grabbed the mouse and started betting. Okay, maybe not the last one so much, but you get my drift. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

It's a very close call either way, and like I said, I don't think there's anything wrong with folding either. But I take one off here.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

ill give you that, if you were to peel one you would definately be able to make a better decision on the turn based on the turn action.

as far as your last possiblity, ive had a cat jump on my keyboard and raise with T4o UTG so its not REALLY all that far fetched [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: AKo in the CO
 

I argue that winning a big fat pot via runner runner straight is lot more fun than hitting the fold button.

Re: AKo in the CO
 

This hand was played by GoT. He folded. The original thread can be found here.

From that thread:

"The problem with giving myself full overcard outs based on his range of hands is that 1/3 of my overcard outs give redraws to anyone with any spade. Couple that with the times that I hit an overcard that isn't good anyway and my sucky reverse implied odds when that happens and I think I have a fold."

"My pro's are my good pot odds. My con's are facing a capping hand, having strong redraws against 1/3 of my outs and still very live redraws against the others, and my really crappy reverse implied odds when I hit and am no good. If you think the pro's outweigh the cons, you should call. I didn't, so I folded."