Folding QQ preflop!
 

This happened a few days ago. I didn't have any stats or reads on the villain. Fold, or beat him into the pot?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($20.40)
Button ($16.95)
SB ($2.30)
BB ($27.05)
UTG ($49.90)
UTG+1 ($64.95)
MP1 ($20.75)
Hero ($23.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $12.35

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

Without stats, I'm looking him up. Could be any pp 88-AA or AK. You are ahead of most of villain's holdings.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

Dude this is 25nl, he could have 77, AK, AJs, and maybe KK and AA, but I tend to find our opponents like to make small raises with the bigger pairs. Put him in and laugh as you drag his stack towards you. Then type "you suck fishtard lolol"

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

In my experience, this has AK written all over it. At these levels, donkeys don't know how to play aces or kings preflop after a raise. I'm pushing.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

You're probably ahead, but I don't lose sleep over these folds. I only remember the times I call and see AA, KK and get pissed. Or when villain has AK (or worse), I lose the coinflip and get REALLY pissed.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

i would fold, but apparently i am a weak-tight bitch. btw, this is only without ANY reads. if i have seen him do anything stupid at all, or raise a little too often, i would push. a year ago, i would insta-push. the games are a little different now.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would fold, but apparently i am a weak-tight bitch. btw, this is only without ANY reads. if i have seen him do anything stupid at all, or raise a little too often, i would push. a year ago, i would insta-push. the games are a little different now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is not weak tight. It might not be optimal play, but it is not weak tight. I would say it is more tentative. You could probably flip a coin every time here. Just depends how much gambooooooooool you are feeling at that moment [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

I'm curious. Given that QQ is only a small favorite against AK, how often do you need to see JJ-22 or Ax for this to be profitable?

Given the way it played, I probably fold, because I expect to see AA, KK or AK most of the time here, and JJ pretty rarely. When you're up against AA or KK, you're crushed, and those times you're up against AK, you're really not giving up much equity.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious. Given that QQ is only a small favorite against AK, how often do you need to see JJ-22 or Ax for this to be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you mean excluding AA/KK then how 'bout never?

You're telling me you'd fold if you somehow knew he had AK? Me confused [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

Isura-

FWIW, I think folding here is okay. I think he most interesting part of the hand is the amount CO raised.

As I remember that game, which I am not too far removed from, players will occasionally make these huge raises with jj, tt, and even smaller pairs. they just want to take down the pot right then and there. However, the majority of the time they seems to have what they are representing.

Without any notes/reads/or stats I am comfortably folding here.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious. Given that QQ is only a small favorite against AK, how often do you need to see JJ-22 or Ax for this to be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you mean excluding AA/KK then how 'bout never?

You're telling me you'd fold if you somehow knew he had AK? Me confused [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that if his hand range AA/KK/AK, it's a clear fold, because you're either slightly ahead or way behind. So my question is, how often do you have to be way ahead for this to be profitable?

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

I am sure that someone who has no reads on you isn't raising with JJ or worse... I wish someone would point me to the tables with guys like that. I am quite sure that the few reraises preflop that you will see are from AA or KK... would you have reraised preflop with QQ?

Guin

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

I folded it preflop today as well. I put Villain on AKo, Aces or Kings. I was out of position as well. I don't have a problem folding it when the pot has been reraised before it gets to me.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

"Could be any pp 88-AA or AK"

Where are you playing? lol At the $25 tables, I don't think I've seen anyone (unless its a known maniac) reraise someone from 6bb to 40bb with a pair of 8s. I have seen shortstacks push... but not someone with 80BB.

I would even say most people at those tables will call with AK. (there are exceptions of course, but I would need a read on that person since its rare.)

Without a good read, I don't mind the fold at all. If the person was shortstacked or clearly on tilt, it would be a different story.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

Get your money in the pot.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm curious. Given that QQ is only a small favorite against AK, how often do you need to see JJ-22 or Ax for this to be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've done rough math calculations in the past, and I do recall that we don't need to see a bluff or JJ-22 etc very often to make a call correct. This has a lot to do with that fact that we still win about 20% of the time against AA and KK. [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

I REALLY disagree with the consensus on this one. I just dont see villains fast playing big pairs preflop at these stakes, how many times have you been re tiny raised by a big pair, flopped a set and stacked it, or had a smaller big pair and been stacked.

This kinda raise looks alot more like please dont call me than ahahahahaha youre stack is mine.

I would move in here for sure.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I REALLY disagree with the consensus on this one. I just dont see villains fast playing big pairs preflop at these stakes, how many times have you been re tiny raised by a big pair, flopped a set and stacked it, or had a smaller big pair and been stacked.

This kinda raise looks alot more like please dont call me than ahahahahaha youre stack is mine.

I would move in here for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree that in general, players at this level tend to slowplay big pairs, I don't see them playing JJ or worse like this.

OT: I need to learn to drop KK pre-flop.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

Yea, JJ isnt as likely as a hand like AQs, or 77, but I dont think his range is AA, KK, AKs (gotta include mid pairs, strong aces, and other garbage)
We are def +ev against that range

OT: Dude that was vicious last night, I donked off 3 stacks, 2 missed combo draws and one donkish bluff that you saw. And you owe me 6.5 for pizza.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
OT: I need to learn to drop KK pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone knows that open folding KK is standard. After all, it's not like you have the pre-flop nuts [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Isura - sorry for the hi-jack, but I could not resist.......

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

Easy fold, not close against 95% of opponents.

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious. Given that QQ is only a small favorite against AK, how often do you need to see JJ-22 or Ax for this to be profitable?

Given the way it played, I probably fold, because I expect to see AA, KK or AK most of the time here, and JJ pretty rarely. When you're up against AA or KK, you're crushed, and those times you're up against AK, you're really not giving up much equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
PoBoy:
I've never seen anyone post about how exactly to do a weighted EV calculation, but I think I'm doing them correctly (someone please correct me if I'm wrong!)

Let's say he has two classes of hands here, and that he treats each hand within a class identically. That is, whatever he's going to do with JJ, he's going to do the exact same thing with 44.

AA,KK,AK: 6+6+16=28 combinations, we own 38% of the pot
JJ-22: 6*10=60 combinations, we own 81% of the pot

There was $0.85 in the pot, you raised to $1.50 and he re-raised to $10. Let's make it simple and assume that you'll push and he'll call. At that point, you'll be risking ($20.40 - $1.50 = $18.90) to win ($20.40+$0.85+$1.50=$22.75) (let's ignore the rake).

Here's the way I thought about this at first: let him have AA,KK,AK x% of the time and JJ-22 (100-x)% of the time. Then, we need to end up with 18.90/(18.90+22.75) = 45% of the pot. So, we need

x*0.38 + (1-x)*0.81 = 0.45.
x*0.38 + (100-x)*0.81 = 0.45.
.38x + .81 -.81x = .45
.43x =.36
x = .36/.43 = .84

That is, he only needs to have JJ-22 16% of the time for us to break even. That's pretty sweet.

I don't think that's quite the right way to think about it, though. Instead of saying "well, I think he'll have JJ-22 x% of the time here," I think it's better to say "well, I think he'd do this x% of the time with JJ-22. So, let's say he does this 100% of the time with AA,KK,AK and x% of the time with JJ-22. I think the right way to weight things is to say that he has 28 combinations of AA,KK,AK and 60*x combinations of JJ-22. does this sound right to people??. That gives (28+60x) total combinations, and we can say

(28/(28+60*x))*0.38 + (60*x/(28+60*x))*0.81 = 0.45.

Edit: note: I switched the meaning of x in my equations. In the first one, it went with his winning hands, but in this one it goes with his losing hands. Sorry about that.

Solving that tells us that we need x to be greater than or equal to 10%. It makes a lot of sense that this is lower than the 16% we got earlier: there are more combinations of JJ-22, but we were weighting them equally before.

So, that's my longwinded way of saying this:

He only needs to do this 10% of the time for you to push with QQ.

Someone please tell me if this looks right.

Note: I forgot that you included Ax in his "bad" range .. the math's the same, but you'll be farther ahead because there will be more hands that you're ahead of.

-poincaraux

Re: Folding QQ preflop!
 

At NL $25, I push. I've seen many a player at this level assume that every raise is AK and make an overbet with any pair to either induce a fold or get themselves in "a coinflip at worst" (as far as they know). You're behind two hands that make this play (and even then, many players at this level play AA/KK more trappishly) and ahead of way more.