big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

UTG is 40/25/1.13 over 40 hands
Button is 57/25/2.13 over 100+ hands

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (15.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

Wow that's tough. I'd probably fold the river.

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

That would be tough to lay down, but in this situation given that a Jack is usually played by loose players (or any player with another good card), it might be best to fold. The pot is huge too so in theory, a call may be your best play since you will get a huge payoff if your fours hold up.

Again, I'm new at this kind of stuff so don't rip me up if i'm wrong.

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

Cap the turn, no reason to think you are behind to JJ and you have outs against 22.
It also makes the river an easy fold. Or possibly just one to call.

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cap the turn, no reason to think you are behind to JJ and you have outs against 22.
It also makes the river an easy fold. Or possibly just one to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we don't cap, we get to see if UTG will. Does this effect anything for you?

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

I only see him capping hands with trips or better. 45s is definately something he would limp. As is A4s. But I see him raising the field here with a pocket pair 55-88, or Ahxh, and not capping. Button could have anything.
I think I loss value by not capping.

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I only see him capping hands with trips or better. 45s is definately something he would limp. As is A4s. But I see him raising the field here with a pocket pair 55-88, or Ahxh, and not capping. Button could have anything.
I think I loss value by not capping.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could be. Just figured I throw that out there.

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

What can you beat? With PFR% = 25, no one slowplayed a big pocket pair

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

yeah, fold the river.

I don't cap the turn, I figure I'm drawing to three outs most of the time there.

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

Clear river fold (but it hurts).

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

That sucks - The river is a fold. You're going to pay 4 BB with the basement of a fullhouse?

I suspect UTG did a delayed-raise with his 4-K or 4-A. Possibly 22. I can be 80-90% sure button has a J and is overplaying the turn.

With that turn action and insufficient odds (you know it will be capped), I would argue for folding the turn instead of investing 3 BB there and 4 more on the river. I know it seems weak but the situation looks very costly. If you fold a winner, move on and make a note.

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

I'd say go ahead and cap the turn. utg is generally neutral aggression with him playing 40% of his hands. THe button is an out and out LAG, so I would almost disregard him having a hand that beats us here

as far as the river, I really dunno. I think utg has a 4 more then he has a J to be honest. A 40% guy isn't limping with a crap jack all that often, and this guy raises a fair amount of hands, so he'd raise any Jack down to J9s, IMO. So basically the only jacks that he can logically have are J8s, J7s, and J9o.

I think that he is limping with a fair amount of 4s as he would limp there with suited connectors that contain a 4 plus K4s and A4s type hands.

Now the LAG rasising this river presents a conundrum, he plays enough hands to where he may have a crap jack. This pot is really big, and though I have an underfull, I really don't want to completely give credit to the button here and may just go ahead and coldcall. I'm not liking the situation all that much though

Re: big blind, baby trips, bloated pot (party 5/10)
 

[ QUOTE ]
That would be tough to lay down, but in this situation given that a Jack is usually played by loose players (or any player with another good card), it might be best to fold. The pot is huge too so in theory, a call may be your best play since you will get a huge payoff if your fours hold up.

Again, I'm new at this kind of stuff so don't rip me up if i'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot may be big, but our hand sucks right now. Look at the action, and realize that even though they are agro, at least one of them will often have a jack. We are getting about 10:1 on our call, but it could easily get capped behind us. We are not good even 10% of the time here. At best we split, but even that is a bit far fetched.