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-   -   More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count! (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394613)

gonzopro 12-09-2005 12:59 AM

More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
This is primarily an out counting exercise. Obviously the pot is getting big but my outs are dirtier than a public toilet in New York City (New York City?). Pot is 9BB (assume rake is .5BB) so I need >5 outs to call. How many do I have and what is our plan if 10 or ace falls on the river?

UTG is weak tight 27/11/1.8 over 500 hands (most datamined. His UTG raising has been any suited Ace (even A2), high pocket pair, Q9s or higher, ATo and up.

SB is a true fish with the gift of luckbox. He is 47/2.5/.6 over 300 hands. He is calling from the SB with any two suited, and any card over T. He has shown down several times with bottom pair (any piece will do).


Prima 2/4 5 handed

Preflop:
UTG raised, 2 folds, SB call, <font color="red">Hero calls </font> A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, <font color="red">Hero calls </font> , UTG calls

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, <font color="red">Hero calls </font> , UTG raises, SB calls, <font color="red">Hero??? </font>

smartalecc5 12-09-2005 01:09 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
I'd call the turn bet without doing any calculations.

jba 12-09-2005 01:13 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
how can UTG be raising with such a wide range with an 11 PFR?

Peter Harris 12-09-2005 06:45 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
Odd that this thread didn't get more comments, it's a tricky decision for lime.

I mean, UTG may have AJ and hero is drawing dead to a J, it's a nasty board and few would raise here without either a J or a set. If it's either lime is dead to the J.

8.5-1 (less rake) isn't really enough to draw, i don't think, and do we want to invest another 1BB if we have to showdown? Considering the river action may be SB bets and UTG raises hero may have to fold to SB's river donk too.

I'd say your outs are 3 jacks (i don't count the flush draw worthy of concern here, you have the A :clubs: so someone would have to have exactly QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or QT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here methinks).

I would assign 1 out to the remaining 2 tens in case someone has a set or the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] completes an unlikely flush, and i'd assign 0.5 outs to the remaining aces as 2 pair may not cut it either. That's 4.5 outs; getting 8.5-1, you stand to win about 10% of the time if you hit the river and the pot would need to be laying 9-1 for you to take it; since 0.5BB at least is being raked, i think this is a turn fold.

Does anyone dispute my reasoning? Does anyone think we can make up 2BB of implied odds?

Weatherhead03 12-09-2005 06:53 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
Call the raise. I check call any A or 10 and expect to not win. If we spike a J I am leaning towords C/R.

POKhER 12-09-2005 07:19 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
Well i dont think a ten or ace will win it for us, so if they call i'd be check/calling or folding if 2back to me(if things kick off).

If a jack falls i'll C/r the river but as this is the case i'm folding because we don't have outs/odds to continue and even if you can get us to 4outs or so, They're not outs if we lose when hitting them [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

PETER - we're not drawing dead to AJ, we have 3outs to split.

Peter Harris 12-09-2005 08:35 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
[ QUOTE ]
we're not drawing dead to AJ, we have 3outs to split.

[/ QUOTE ]

i know, i wrote "drawing dead to a J" meaning only a J would split it. i will be more concise next time.

gonzopro 12-09-2005 09:23 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
[ QUOTE ]
how can UTG be raising with such a wide range with an 11 PFR?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question and I'll answer yours when you answer mine. J/K. For some reason, his PFR decreases as you get closer to the button and his VPIP stays about the same. From UTG his PFR is 22.8, MP 17.2, CO 14.1, Button 11.1, SB 1.1, BB 7.1. How's that for odd? This strategy has disastrous results for him as his WR UTG is (.40) vs Button .23.

gonzopro 12-09-2005 09:32 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
Peter, thanks for your reply. I thought this hand would get some more discussion. At first glance it looks like an obvious call. But you are assigning the majority of outs to jacks. If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?

oreogod 12-09-2005 09:42 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
looks like 4-4.5 outs.

J = 2outs (split. If u dont belive it will split then 4)
T = 1 out (possibly 2)
A=1-1.5 outs (maybe less)

==4.5 outs.

Id say u have enough to take off. But wtf do I know late at night and no sleep in ages.

Also Im not so worried about drawing dead here...unless UTG has AJ or J8, I see no worries. SB maybe, but once he calls, looks like u are still drawing live. If thats the case then your T outs are tainted if UTG has a set or something, in which case u lose the T outs but possibly gain more J outs. Anyway, my 2 cents.

Peter Harris 12-09-2005 09:43 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
[ QUOTE ]
If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split. The problem here is you have to work out if someone is already holding a J - even if they do, opponents will need an A for the chop - i think for UTG to play this way AK and JJ are possible given the player's nature. In a way both shaft you because you're behind in both.

With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly. I know i said 3 outs earlier but the more i think about this the more it's a turn fold...

such a tricky hand. we need some MHHUSHers to read this. Btw, it's already on the shortlist for the digest.

Pete

TomBrooks 12-09-2005 10:10 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
I'm going to count only your Jack outs to the nut straight as good here. That's four outs and you can call getting 9:1 due to implied odds.

If a T falls on the river, you can probably fold. If an Ace comes, I would check and maybe call one bet, but certainly not two.

Queery for you: Why do you characterize 27/11/1.8 as Weak-Tight? Not enough preflop raising? 1.8 post flop seems pretty aggro to me.

As far as public bathrooms in New York City go, I don't think there are any except at the beaches and some parks. The ones at Coney Island last year weren't so bad. Probably because most people have been in the water and their stinky butts have gotten washed.

oreogod 12-09-2005 10:18 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
Im a MHHUSH poster. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Peter Harris 12-09-2005 10:23 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
[ QUOTE ]
Im a MHHUSH poster. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i apologise profusely oreo. I knew that too, for shame.

TomBrooks 12-09-2005 10:27 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where can this be found?


[ QUOTE ]
With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]
This makes sense to me. I'll revise my estimate from 4 outs to an optimistic 3. You would want 15:1 for that. Your're unlikely to collect three more bets from each of your opponents on the river if a J came, and if you did it would almost certainly be because someone else had the nut straight for a split.

Although it's a small chance, the possibility of someone making a flush detracts a little from Hero's hand also. I would say the chance of an Ace or Ten being good makes up for that factor, so I'll call that a wash.

Regardless, I now think this is a Fold.

Spicymoose 12-09-2005 10:29 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
It seems like your weak tight villain has AJ, JJ, or if you are lucky, AK. SB could have a wide range of stuff, but I guessed he has something that looks a bit like 99, KQs, QTs-Q9s, T9s, KQo, QTo-Q9o.

Unless you can find some other probably hands for villain, it is looking like we have 5% equity in this pot. That would be around 2.5 outs, which would make the title of your post pretty false.

The pot is 9 BB, and if we wanted to call, we would need at least 10% equity.

Fold.

Peter Harris 12-09-2005 10:43 AM

Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where can this be found?

[/ QUOTE ]

SSHE p101:
[ QUOTE ]
Even if a card makes you the nuts, you should only count it as a partial out if someone else is likely to have the same hand, splitting the pot. This situation commonly occurs with one card straight draws. If you have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the board is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], any ten gives you the nuts. But if you have several opponents, one of them may also have an ace. You could make your hand, but win only half (or even one-third) of the pot. If you knew someone was drawing to the same hand, you would count each ten as about half an out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since i discount the FD from landing and someone making the flush, there are 4 unseen jacks, but we could only assign 2 outs to them.


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