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-   -   why am i always in these spots? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394475)

PokerBob 12-08-2005 09:03 PM

why am i always in these spots?
 
SB here is an idiot. he likes to run his mouth and is 50/10/1.8. BB is a fishy (45/5/1). 3-better i know nothing about.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (28 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero does huh?

POKhER 12-08-2005 09:09 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
So button 3bets preflop, Caps the flop, and raises turn... man he must have a monster or hes AGGRESSIVE.

I mean, Doesn't AA take a breather after the flop cap? KK doesn't.

Then SB donk 3bets the turn, T7? Two pair?

Then he bets river... and BB raises out of the blue. Bleh i'm calling but this is crazy with a huge pot and button to act behind.

Would i want to pay 4BB to see a SD? Probably not.. But i guess im paying 2 and hoping i dont pay 4.

WordWhiz 12-08-2005 09:13 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
You're in this spot because of your flop play. The pot is huge, and a set of sixes is not an invulnerable monster on this board against 4 opponents. There are two straights draws and a flush draw available. Try to win this thing now. That means either betting out on the flop, so that the rest of the field faces two cold when Button raises, or just call button's raise and then pump the turn to keep the pot small enough so that the other 3 players aren't getting correct odds to hang around with gutshots, bdfd's, and other weak hands facing two cold on the turn.

With SB and BB both being idiots, it's tough to say what their bet/raise on the river means. It could be as stupid as a crappy two pair, but I'd guess at least one of them hit his JT gutshot.

Oh, and with the pot this huge, hero calls and prays.

27offsooot 12-08-2005 09:16 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
tough one. only hand that makes sense for bb is J10. I really don't think he would raise this with KQ on the end given the previous action. That said, u could be behind to sb as well. But of course the pot is effing huge. It could be three bet and capped here and when it is u're pretty much never good.

so i say fold but i hate ed miller in these situations.

jba 12-08-2005 09:20 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You're in this spot because of your flop play. The pot is huge, and a set of sixes is not an invulnerable monster on this board against 4 opponents. There are two straights draws and a flush draw available. Try to win this thing now. That means either betting out on the flop, so that the rest of the field faces two cold when Button raises, or just call button's raise and then pump the turn to keep the pot small enough so that the other 3 players aren't getting correct odds to hang around with gutshots, bdfd's, and other weak hands facing two cold on the turn.

With SB and BB both being idiots, it's tough to say what their bet/raise on the river means. It could be as stupid as a crappy two pair, but I'd guess at least one of them hit his JT gutshot.

Oh, and with the pot this huge, hero calls and prays.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with everything in this post, except the the part about BB having JT.

i'd fold it.

PokerBob 12-08-2005 09:24 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
i can't really protect my hand.

Spicymoose 12-08-2005 09:32 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
I had to read that action I think 8 times, and I am still not exactly sure what happend. There is no way I would be able to follow all that action as it was happening, so in the heat of it, I would have to call getting 15:1, and hoping that someone is a huge idiot. If it was capped back to me, I woul have to fold though.

Looking at it a bit more rationally (if I can even do that), I would say that BB really looks like he has JTs. He will often call preflop, then he has to call on the flop with his gutshot becuase of pot size. On the turn he picks up a double gutter, so has to call some more. It looks odd for him to be calling 3 bets cold on the turn, and I think that has to be JT. On the river, he hits, and pounds! BB could also have QQ, and just be too stupid to cap preflop. Then he needs to peel a bunch for the same reason as SB...

...On top of BB, who almost certainly has JT, it looks like SB has 88. He called preflop, and then on the flop, pot was big, so he called the first bet to try and hit trips. When it comes back for two more, pot is even bigger, and he call again. When he hits, he goes for good old trusty check raise.

Then we still have the button to deal with. It would look like KK, except that he only called the 3-bet on the turn instead of capping, last to act. I guess he could have just been frightened by all that action, and seeming coordination of the board, or just spazzed out for some reason. More likely looks like AA. A hugely overdone AK could be possible, but not all that likely.

In summary, I the most likely holdings of BB crush you. SB probably has you beat as well. Luckily, you may get 3rd place, but even then, button could be stupid with his KK.

Pot is huge, but there are so many reasons to fold.

27offsooot 12-08-2005 09:32 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
i can't really protect my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If i were to bet the flop it would be for value, b/c u will protect absolutely nothing, like u said. The idiots will call, but u can three bet. I'm not sure if flop c/r or b-3-bet is better, my guess is that c/r is best b/c a 3-bettor will almost always bet this flop in a huge pot but won't always raise.

Spicymoose 12-08-2005 09:37 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
I like leading this flop. Button may have 3-bet, but if he has AQ, AJ, AT, QJs 77, 88, TT, JJ, QQ, he may decide to check the flop. This would be horrendous. Not all of those hands are entirely likely, but they are all possible. Furthermore, if we bet, and he has a hand that would have bet the flop, he usually will raise us. This doesn't really protect our hand too much, as people will draws will still be getting great odds on their draws. But, a benefit is that we can then 3-bet very often, and force people to pay. You got lucky here, and button 3-bet, allowing your cap, but this does not happen all that often.

LoaferGee12 12-08-2005 09:39 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
I think you need to bet this flop, but not because of protection. 5-handed, this guy is only going to bet this flop if he hit it. A hand like AQ/AJ is going to check here. He will also often raise here with AK,KQ,QQ,AA in which case you can 3-bet. Having this getting checked through is a complete disaster.

12-08-2005 09:45 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
All hope is gone.

Jstyal 12-08-2005 09:53 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
Didn't have time to read all responses, just read the board. Bet the flop, too mnay draws out there AND if given the chance, you need to cap, which you did, phew, good. Checking on this flop is not too smart given your late position. Raise the turn. Only 7T of the draws has gotten there. Call the river. If they're behind and still betting, you want this. If you're beaten, you dont want to continue raising.

Jstyal 12-08-2005 10:00 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]

so i say fold but i hate ed miller in these situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does Ed Miller have to do with 6-max and this topic? You cannot possibly fold this river in a 6-max 3/6 internet game.

27offsooot 12-08-2005 10:26 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

so i say fold but i hate ed miller in these situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does Ed Miller have to do with 6-max and this topic? You cannot possibly fold this river in a 6-max 3/6 internet game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ed Miller said it's a huge mistake to fold in big pots (SSH, although he said it for one bet really). It's not really though, i was kind of being sarcastic. But i don't feel like elaborating. If u say folding is never correct, then u won't understand what else i have to say.

27offsooot 12-08-2005 10:35 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I like leading this flop. Button may have 3-bet, but if he has AQ, AJ, AT, QJs 77, 88, TT, JJ, QQ, he may decide to check the flop. This would be horrendous. Not all of those hands are entirely likely, but they are all possible. Furthermore, if we bet, and he has a hand that would have bet the flop, he usually will raise us. This doesn't really protect our hand too much, as people will draws will still be getting great odds on their draws. But, a benefit is that we can then 3-bet very often, and force people to pay. You got lucky here, and button 3-bet, allowing your cap, but this does not happen all that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points. I think it's close. I guess i think that I would bet almost any hand i three bet with on this flop in this size pot with these opponents. Many people would not though. I think pocket pairs almost always bet. Any chance of folding out hands drawing live in this pot with A high hands is a good thing. Perhaps hands like QJ i might check with, but i don't think they comprise much of villains range unless he's a maniac, which means he will bet anyway. Again, this is how i would play the flop checked to me. Smaller pot or really ugly flop, of course i'm not betting, but here i do.

I think it's close and depends on reads though.

damaniac 12-08-2005 10:37 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
Right. That advice applies as good general advice to people who haven't thought about it before, and to people who want to be too cute with river folds, making "amazing" reads. But you still look at the action and the players, and if you aren't getting appropriate odds compared to that, you fold. Ed Miller never said "Just throw out everything you learned about hand reading and looking at the board and call just because the pot is big".

I think Ed including a revision with a Bobbyi-like analysis of the river decision might clear up some confusion.

Jstyal 12-08-2005 10:50 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Ed Miller said it's a huge mistake to fold in big pots (SSH, although he said it for one bet really). It's not really though, i was kind of being sarcastic. But i don't feel like elaborating. If u say folding is never correct, then u won't understand what else i have to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said folding here is 'always' incorrect; however, given that this is a low-limit 6-max internet game, folding here would be ruinous and boderline 'always' incorrect.


fyodor 12-08-2005 10:53 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
SB has K8
BB has KQ
Button has AK
Your hand is good.

Now wake up and smell the coffee. That was a dream.

27offsooot 12-08-2005 10:59 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
SB has K8
BB has KQ
Button has AK
Your hand is good.

Now wake up and smell the coffee. That was a dream.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, because players that call and don't raise the flop with TP2ndK, then cold call three on the turn and raise the river because they hit two pair.

Edit - i just realized u meant that u have to fold. My bad, but i'll leave this post up b/c i think it's important.

Jstyal 12-08-2005 11:08 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
If they knew how to play poker consistent with optimal strategy then they wouldn't do what they do and they would cease to be donks and would actually be winners in this game, right?

damaniac 12-08-2005 11:09 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
Is it wrong to limp preflop? You've got two very loose blinds who are probably coming along anyway, so we're bloating a multiway pot with a hand that will probably need to hit to win as a result. Ordinarily I raise too but with blinds that loose and whatnot...

PokerBob 12-08-2005 11:46 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is it wrong to limp preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]
i don't think it matters much either way.

RunDownHouse 12-08-2005 11:55 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
I also bet the flop, but for a slightly different reason than most. Like you said, absolutely no protection here, so throw that out. IF button hit, he will always bet/raise. If button missed, he will sometimes bet and sometimes check, but raising is less likely than either.

You really don't want to risk a check, that I agree with, and betting protects against that. But even if he hit, he may not 3bet a c/r, where he'll almost always raise a bet, letting you 3bet. I think you want the money flowing in, and the donks will call two with almost any hand really, so getting that 3bet is huge, and preventing a check through is important as well.

After that, the rest of the hand is easy!

<font color="white">Not really, I like putting BB on JT, but in the heat of battle there's no way I'd come up with that. Tough river.</font>

Wynton 12-08-2005 11:56 PM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
It really is hard to follow the action here. I've only skimmed the posts, but someone's got to be pretty damn fishy if they called all those early bets with just J10 (unless they had a flush draw too).

I have a hard time getting away from this. Just remember what a wise man once said, if you lost with trips and didn't lose a lot, that means you didn't play them correctly.

Finally, I don't think anything you did on the flop makes a difference. These people were obviously calling down no matter what.

LoaferGee12 12-09-2005 12:12 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is it wrong to limp preflop? You've got two very loose blinds who are probably coming along anyway, so we're bloating a multiway pot with a hand that will probably need to hit to win as a result. Ordinarily I raise too but with blinds that loose and whatnot...

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I think that given the looseness of these blinds this should be a limp.

tolbiny 12-09-2005 12:14 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
check raise the flop, call his three bet, check raise the turn.

smartalecc5 12-09-2005 01:14 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
im intrigued, what happened?

jba 12-09-2005 01:17 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
[ QUOTE ]
someone's got to be pretty damn fishy if they called all those early bets with just J10 (unless they had a flush draw too).

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno man, SB is getting 16-1, 23-2 and 30-1 on his calls. it's at least close

Wynton 12-09-2005 08:46 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
Yeah, but look how many bets J10 had to call pf.

27offsooot 12-09-2005 10:02 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
BB has a 45 VPIP and gets the BB discount. He very easily could have J10s.

raze 12-09-2005 11:29 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
I give button AK

Cold calling THREE big bets on the turn must indicate BB's huge draw, ie. JdTd

SB calling three pre-flop is very fishy, as is the turn check/reraise, although he is 50 VP$IP and an 'idiot'.. but w 50VPIP his range is pretty hard to nail.. I say pay the BB off, you'll get it back later anyways

PokerBob 12-09-2005 11:29 AM

results if you care
 
i called like a fish. the best part of the hand is that button went on a tirade after the hand.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (28 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 36 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Td 7d (straight, ten high).
BB has Ts Jc (straight, king high).
Hero has 6s 6c (three of a kind, sixes).
Button has 9h 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: BB wins 36 BB. </font>

JerseyTom 12-09-2005 11:30 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
Ugh... I think this is one of those "Hero calls and prays" hands. Maybe fold if it gets capped behind me after I call the first two. Even if BB is fishy, he can still read the board and probably realizes that KQo ain't quite da bomb after all the previous action. I dunno... I'd want to throw up in my mouth.


Tom

raze 12-09-2005 11:40 AM

Re: why am i always in these spots?
 
crazy results

I didnt believe the SB's c/3bet because when I think 'idiot' I think of situations where I've seen players check/reraise or even check/cap with nothing

JerseyTom 12-09-2005 11:40 AM

Re: results if you care
 
So as not to influence those who haven't seen the results:

<font color="white">
Other than the PF call, I thought SB played his hand quite well, though I would have 3-bet the river and gotten reamed. I did actually think about something like a diamond gutshot for him, but discounted it because he hd to call 2.5 bets cold with it... So much for my read...

Wow, BB is a mega-fish. Buddy list!

Tough hand, Bob. You were just destined to lose a sh*tload of $$$ this hand.
[/white]

jba 12-09-2005 12:21 PM

Re: results if you care
 
JerseyTom -

If you're BB, how do you play this hand differently post-flop?

Thinking a 50 VPIP guy is not going to call two in the BB with this hand is crazy...

JerseyTom 12-17-2005 07:14 PM

Re: results if you care
 
[ QUOTE ]
JerseyTom -

If you're BB, how do you play this hand differently post-flop?

Thinking a 50 VPIP guy is not going to call two in the BB with this hand is crazy...

[/ QUOTE ]

While very true (cold-calling 2 OOP with JTo is pretty much the definition of "buddy"), that doesn't make him any less fishy.

Unfortunately, there is no other way to play this hand post-flop, since JTo has pretty much no value vs a 3-bet other than to make a straight. He flopped his draw, now he has to lie in it. A JTo gutshot typically has max 16% pot equity on the flop; with a two-toned board and one or more sets (like this hand), it's more like 10% with negative implied odds because he'll sometimes hit on the turn, and the flush/boat will come in on the river and he'll get ripped a new one. Chase away little fishy...


Tom


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