Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

Villains seems kinda loose passive. Basically, his flop minraise means that he has a monster. Your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($59.28)
MP ($69.95)
CO ($112.65)
Button ($48.90)
SB ($54.40)
Hero ($48.22)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.5</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $1.25.

Turn: ($6.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($14.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

If he's definitely firing another shot into this pot, I checkraise him all in.

edit: On further consideration, I don't know how much value we're going to be getting out of that line. Checkraise to $30? If villain just has a weak 2 pair hand I doubt he'd be calling a push.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

I see two options. 1 is weak lead, inducing a push/raise. I think if villan will raise your bet, leading is fine.

If not, you can c/r. Only problem is, it looksmore like a monster. But with your stack/read, I think c/r is best play.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's definitely firing another shot into this pot, I checkraise him all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my problem. I'm not sure that he's definitely firing another bullet. Like I said, he seems kinda of passive. Do I check/raise, bet and hopefully push, or just open-push?

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's definitely firing another shot into this pot, I checkraise him all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my problem. I'm not sure that he's definitely firing another bullet. Like I said, he seems kinda of passive. Do I check/raise, bet and hopefully push, or just open-push?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he seems passive he's not biting on an open-push. If he's passive, what percentage of the time is he going to raise so you can 3-bet him all-in? I think ideally check-raising him would be the best line.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

Because 43 is the nuts here (and was double-gutter style), he'll NEVER see it coming. You said that the flop minraise meant strength, and he's betting pretty hard for a "passive" player. Checkraise the river for as much as you think he'll call. If he has a set or top 2 pair, it's probably your whole stack.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

You have to use your reads, if you are confident he'll bet ... I'd say around 80% then i'd check to him, but if you're not sure just make a value bet. Probably around 10

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

If you don't have a really solid plan for extracting on the river then you have to fold the turn. I've actually seen people that check behind on the river with their sets on boards like this. But if he's loose/passive and he has a set here, you could try something ridiculous like open-pushing the river.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

would a smaller bet of $5 or do induce a raise, or would he flat call it?

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

I think any LP Villian that has fired on the flop and turn has a hand that hell call a push with. I think I lead however, because checking behind would be a disastorus outcome for you. If you lead and he folds, Itd be the same amount of win for you as if he checked behind. If he calls, value, and if he min raises, life is good.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

"his flop minraise means that he has a monster. Your play?"

If monster means Aces up or a set, push the river.
That 2 doesn't look scary so I don't think he'll fold those hands.
Or you could check and have him bet something like 8 bucks and then raise, but personaly I like an overbet on the river.
A small river bet might only get called by a passive player.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
would a smaller bet of $5 or do induce a raise, or would he flat call it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to induce passive players to raise is not a very good plan.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
would a smaller bet of $5 or do induce a raise, or would he flat call it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to induce passive players to raise is not a very good plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

guess i didnt pay attention to the fact that he's passive.

is this because a passive player will only raise with hands that beat you?

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
would a smaller bet of $5 or do induce a raise, or would he flat call it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to induce passive players to raise is not a very good plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain would call a bet/3bet all in or a checkraise all in on river then he will call your open push.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
would a smaller bet of $5 or do induce a raise, or would he flat call it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to induce passive players to raise is not a very good plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

guess i didnt pay attention to the fact that he's passive.

is this because a passive player will only raise with hands that beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to beat the nuts here, I think?

Many passive players can barely read the board, much less read hands. They don't know how many/what hands can beat them. That's why you see totally ridiculous things like players calling the river closing the action with the nuts. The read given for this player was that he may not bet again if checked to... well if he's not going to bet his hand, then he certainly isn't going to raise a bet in front of him for value.

I stand by my original point... if you don't already have a plan for extracting a lot on the river, then you have to fold the turn. Drawing against passive players sucks (if they've actually made a decent bet) because it's hard to cash in on your implied odds. Chasing isn't the best way to exploit them.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
would a smaller bet of $5 or do induce a raise, or would he flat call it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to induce passive players to raise is not a very good plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

guess i didnt pay attention to the fact that he's passive.

is this because a passive player will only raise with hands that beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to beat the nuts here, I think?



[/ QUOTE ]

wasnt referring to this hand so much as passive players in general.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

i'd pot it, you'll probably get a call

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd pot it, you'll probably get a call

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a strong ace he will call 2x pot. If he has aces up he will probably call an open push. If he has a set he will definately call and open push.

Just push and see what happens, it will be fun.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

Check raise, he thinks he has you and can't possibly think the river helped you.

Even if he doesn't call your check raise, you'll still take his original river bet, but no way does villain get a cheap showdown here.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check raise

[/ QUOTE ][ QUOTE ]
...but no way does villain get a cheap showdown here.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh...unless he checks behind.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

If the opponent is agressive, I weak bet then re-raise.

Here your saying hes passive, if he does indeed have a monster, such as trip 7s, He will still put a bet in on the river. I just cant see him checking behind.
I highly doubt he even sees your straight.

For what you descibed, I think the check raise is the best.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

haven't read any of the posts, but I think if are going to lead the flop, the bet should have been 3$, and if you are going to check-raise, I think a big bet would be a better line to take. As played I would have re-raised to like 7.50 or so, hoping to get a free turn card against this passive player and probably getting paid-off for the full pot amount or more if you do hit your hand.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

If I were in position, I might have raised the flop. OOP, however, I think it's just way too likely that I'd get 3-bet all-in.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

I might bet the full pot amount on the river, hoping to get raised by the monster, but if he is a loose passive player with a monster, I think you might be better off check-raising all in, since a player like that might flat-call the $14 with 55 or 77, but will bet the river and call an all-in bet with it.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villains seems kinda loose passive. Basically, his flop minraise means that he has a monster. Your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($59.28)
MP ($69.95)
CO ($112.65)
Button ($48.90)
SB ($54.40)
Hero ($48.22)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.5</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $1.25.

Turn: ($6.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($14.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero... bets 12, villain pushes, hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having called the $4 on the turn, getting about 2.5:1 on my 4:1 draw, I needed to extract at least $12 on the end for the hand the turn call to be longterm profitable. Given that he was fairly loose/passsive, I expected that I would at least get called almost 100% of the time. Luckily for me, Villain showed 77, pushed against my bet and I won the max.

I had considered a weak lead, but against loose/passives, you all too often find that even with incredibly strong holdings, those bets only get called, and you lose out on a lot of value. I didn't like the open push because if he ever folds, I'm losing a ton of value, so I value bet for an almost full pot bet, although I think I probably could have overbet the pot and extracted more those times that he only calls me.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I were in position, I might have raised the flop. OOP, however, I think it's just way too likely that I'd get 3-bet all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is a good play there, but I like check-raising the flop. Passive players love to slowplay with a set there, allowing you a good look at the river for free, and if they bet the turn it is usually to small for the pot size, allowing you to see a cheap river. I like keeping the pot small, and it was probably good since you didn't have a flush draw with your straight draw, but if you are against a known passive player that will slowplay his monster hands, then I like throwing in a play like that every now and then.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villains seems kinda loose passive. Basically, his flop minraise means that he has a monster. Your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($59.28)
MP ($69.95)
CO ($112.65)
Button ($48.90)
SB ($54.40)
Hero ($48.22)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.5</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $1.25.

Turn: ($6.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($14.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero... bets 12, villain pushes, hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having called the $4 on the turn, getting about 2.5:1 on my 4:1 draw, I needed to extract at least $12 on the end for the hand the turn call to be longterm profitable. Given that he was fairly loose/passsive, I expected that I would at least get called almost 100% of the time. Luckily for me, Villain showed 77, pushed against my bet and I won the max.

I had considered a weak lead, but against loose/passives, you all too often find that even with incredibly strong holdings, those bets only get called, and you lose out on a lot of value. I didn't like the open push because if he ever folds, I'm losing a ton of value, so I value bet for an almost full pot bet, although I think I probably could have overbet the pot and extracted more those times that he only calls me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your thinking here. well played.

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villains seems kinda loose passive. Basically, his flop minraise means that he has a monster. Your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($59.28)
MP ($69.95)
CO ($112.65)
Button ($48.90)
SB ($54.40)
Hero ($48.22)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.5</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $1.25.

Turn: ($6.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($14.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero... bets 12, villain pushes, hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having called the $4 on the turn, getting about 2.5:1 on my 4:1 draw, I needed to extract at least $12 on the end for the hand the turn call to be longterm profitable. Given that he was fairly loose/passsive, I expected that I would at least get called almost 100% of the time. Luckily for me, Villain showed 77, pushed against my bet and I won the max.

I had considered a weak lead, but against loose/passives, you all too often find that even with incredibly strong holdings, those bets only get called, and you lose out on a lot of value. I didn't like the open push because if he ever folds, I'm losing a ton of value, so I value bet for an almost full pot bet, although I think I probably could have overbet the pot and extracted more those times that he only calls me.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like this way of thinking about the bet, but I'm not sure I understand the odds. Can you please correct me if I'm wrong?

You have 8 outs and there are 46 cards left, so your draw is 38:8 = 4.75:1. If you're read is right on that he has a monster on the flop, his two cards aren't your outs, so you could say there are 44 cards left and your draw is 36:8 = 4.5:1. OK, so where do you get the $12? If the 4.5:1 number is correct, is it just (4.5-2.5)*$4 = $12?

I suppose it's OK to be a little off on those odds anyway, though .. if your read is right, he'll always at least call on the river, and he'll raise sometimes, so you'll make more than $12 by betting $12.

Thanks,

-poincaraux

Re: Double gutter gets there, I think villain really has a hand
 

(grunch)

Open push is the only play here. Passive players are far more likely to call off their stack than bet it for you. I think he has aces up.

Edit: Meh, against 77 it doesn't much matter what line you take =). Nice hand.