What else am I doing with these aces??
 

The villains are different from the other hand. BB is relatively new, but has shown signs of aggression. This is about the third or fourth time he's donked into the preflop raiser on the flop.

Value bet the turn (and worry about the check-raise when it happens)? Check behind to try to induce a river bluff (betting the river if he checks to you again)?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

Check behind. River a 4!

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

Check, even if he somehow doesn't have a heart he's got almost as many outs to chop as you have to improve to a boat or quads and be sure of winning the hand.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

Bet.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

if you're going to pay off a river bet, i like betting the turn as a free showdown bet. if he raises, you can draw to your boat and fold the river UI. if not, check behind UI on river.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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if you're going to pay off a river bet, i like betting the turn as a free showdown bet. if he raises, you can draw to your boat and fold the river UI. if not, check behind UI on river.

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So you like putting yourself in a position to lose two bets when behind and win one when you're ahead instead of putting yourself in position to lose one bet when you're behind and win one when you're ahead?

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

Easy bet.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

I bet the turn and river here, unless a heart falls on the river. I don't see this guy folding a pair very often.

Oh yeah, another good part about betting is your saving yourself from a split the times he folds and the river hearts.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

Check or bet.

Were 3.6:1 to improve (10 outs) and we may be ahead, he may also fold.

So bet is for value &amp; to make him fold...

On the other hand you can check as your behind every heart, But if you check a weak heart WILL GO TO SHOWDOWN. if you beat he may fold one.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

You need to bet here to charge all the hands that will get half the pot off of you if another heart falls on the river, and/or possibly get called down by worse hands. If you get checkraised call and fold the river.
The exception is if you knew this guy was big on bluffing and you would have to call his c/r+ riv lead or river donkbet. Then you could consider a check.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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On the other hand you can check as your behind every heart, But if you check a weak heart WILL GO TO SHOWDOWN. if you beat he may fold one.

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There's no way he's folding a flush here.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Easy bet.

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Am I missing something.

We bet on the assumption he has no heart. If he doesn't have one yet he is about 4-1 not to get one on the river, either. So we're protecting a hand that's a pretty big favorite even if we do nothing. And a river heart is only a chop of a still smallish pot.

If we are right that he doesn't have a heart a bet that causes villain to fold has about +0.5 BB EV.

If he does have a heart then we'll assume it costs us 2 BB, but we've got the 10 outs to beat his flush so we'll get that 2 BB back a little better than 20 percent of the time. Still that's a bit more than -1 BB EV, though. (But hey, if he has a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or both then another [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will allow us to chop, I suppose that brings us back to just -1 for our EV.)

That leaves the question of how often he has a heart. For a starting point in any two cards it's about 3 to 2 against having a specific suit. So against an opponent playing a random two the bet is already a loser. And clearly villain had a reason for deciding to contest this pot, which could have included a few things other than a heart but nowhere near enough to make me want to bet this turn.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

if villain has a heart he most likely would not have bet into the PFR. He probably has a pair and wants the PFR to raise it to protect it from hearts.

But that's speculation. Who knows if the villain has a heart. But I'd say there's a &gt;50% chance that the hero is still ahead. and even if he isn't it's not like villain is going to check raise a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . Bet it for value and check behind the river.

also, the 3 to 2 against having a suit odds doesn't work because his hand isn't "random", there are only 9 hearts left.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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On the other hand you can check as your behind every heart, But if you check a weak heart WILL GO TO SHOWDOWN. if you beat he may fold one.

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There's no way he's folding a flush here.

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You assumed "No one will fold" in a few posts i've seen.

If hero bets, I'm not 100% sure about a 2:hearts: calling ALL THE TIME.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

I think I check/Call river... unless you get a boat. That could be wrong.

I get one bet when I win with AAA. (X%)
I get two bets when I win with a boat (20%)
I only lose one bet when he has the heart/river quads him assuming he has a set too. (80%-X)

SFWUSC

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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On the other hand you can check as your behind every heart, But if you check a weak heart WILL GO TO SHOWDOWN. if you beat he may fold one.

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There's no way he's folding a flush here.

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You assumed "No one will fold" in a few posts i've seen.

If hero bets, I'm not 100% sure about a 2:hearts: calling ALL THE TIME.

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A small heart calls most of the time in a heads up pot. They call down in multiway pots when they have even less chance of winning with the one heart flush (they call with a pair sometimes in a multiway pot with a 4-flush on the board), why wouldn't they also call here?

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

Shillx mentioned in a similar hand a few months ago that the only problem with checking behind on the turn here is that there is a reasonable chance that the river brings a 5th heart in which case the best we can do is tie (do you call a bet if the 5th heart comes on the river playing the board?).

Because the pot is only 5BB I think a check, planning to call/raise the river depending on whether you improve is fine. In a larger pot I think you need to bet the turn to protect your hand.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

I think you can check here and call any river bet (raising a paired board obviously).

The issue as I see it. He is probably only calling our bet with a flush, and possibly c/r'ing us with a good flush in a position where we can't fold since we have so many outs to improve.

I think we're putting in more bets when behind then what we're getting paid off while ahead.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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I think you can check here and call any river bet (raising a paired board obviously).

The issue as I see it. He is probably only calling our bet with a flush, and possibly c/r'ing us with a good flush in a position where we can't fold since we have so many outs to improve.

I think we're putting in more bets when behind then what we're getting paid off while ahead.

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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

bet

He may fold a flush (unlikely).
Call with a worse hand.
Fold a hand with 9 outs.

Krishan

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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If hero bets, I'm not 100% sure about a 2:hearts: calling ALL THE TIME.

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Alright, so if he has a 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he's not going to call 100%. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I'm really not even sure how often he has a 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] here to begin with.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

bet, check behind river UI. If he c/r's, fold river UI.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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Bet.

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100%. If you are behind you have plenty of outs to catch up. Checking behind would be silly.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet

He may fold a flush (unlikely).
Call with a worse hand.
Fold a hand with 9 outs.

Krishan

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My primary concern is that aggressive villain donked the flop as a semibluff and is now getting ready to check-raise me (there's very little that I'm raising on the flop that I won't plan to follow up with another bet). If he check-raises me, I'll have odds to draw out, but I'll also have put in two bets into a pot that was only 5 bets big when I had the worst hand and only about a 20% chance of winning.

Given your line, you must bet the river if villain only calls.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

you don't have to bet the river if he calls the turn. he will call the turn bet with hands we beat but also hands that beat us.

if we check here he will likely only bet the river with the hands that beat us, and we are going to call every time. if we bet here we are getting value from hands that don't beat us but have many outs to a chop. yes, the other factor is having to call a check raise, but i believe it's happening less often than you think.

when i first saw this hand i thought you should check through, but now i think you should bet.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet

He may fold a flush (unlikely).
Call with a worse hand.
Fold a hand with 9 outs.

Krishan

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Yeah. I completely agree. Checking gives him a 20% chance to steal half this pot from you when he is behind. He will call with worse hands. Furthermore, if you check, you are forced to call a river bet. So you end up paying that BB anyway. Also, if you are behind, you will improve 20% of the time. If he check raises the turn, you get to pop him on the river a lot when you do improve.

I think everything is point towards a bet here.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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if we check here he will likely only bet the river with the hands that beat us

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I don't agree with this. I think an aggressive villain will bet the river close to 100% of the time when we check. This includes the times that the board pairs (allowing us to raise).

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when i first saw this hand i thought you should check through, but now i think you should bet.

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Me too, and I still like checking. I think the donkbet on the flop is a naked [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a significant percentage of the time, and dodging that check-raise is pretty nice.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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if we check here he will likely only bet the river with the hands that beat us

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I don't agree with this. I think an aggressive villain will bet the river close to 100% of the time when we check. This includes the times that the board pairs (allowing us to raise).

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i dont think so. if he donked a weak A or K into us he may still fear a better hand that is also afraid of the flush.

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when i first saw this hand i thought you should check through, but now i think you should bet.

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Me too, and I still like checking. I think the donkbet on the flop is a naked [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a significant percentage of the time, and dodging that check-raise is pretty nice.

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what [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is he going to check raise us with? Q? J? T? why didn't he bet into us? i just think he is donking the flop with a large range of hands (as many retards at 1/2 do), so we are not getting check raised as often as everyone seems to think. if he wants to call us down with a pair, let's bet now and get his money instead of hoping he bluffs the river for us. let's charge him to draw to the split. if he has a weaker [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] let's get a bet in when we still have a chance to win.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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what [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is he going to check raise us with? Q? J? T? why didn't he bet into us? i just think he is donking the flop with a large range of hands (as many retards at 1/2 do), so we are not getting check raised as often as everyone seems to think. i

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Yup. Not all flushes raise us here.

Krishan

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

My instinct was to bet this turn.

Lots of SSSH players will donk ANY monotone flop hoping to buy it right there.

Reading all the responses I think it's close. There is a lot to be said for losing more when behind here, so in the future I'm probably checking behind and calling the river.

Especially if villain is a bluffer the check behind will induce his river bluff bet that we would not otherwise get.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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what [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is he going to check raise us with? Q? J? T? why didn't he bet into us?

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I see an aggressive player check-raising us with all three of those cards. And check-raising gets two bets in on the turn, that's why he would do it. Since he likely figures us for an A or K (we raised preflop) he's gotta assume we might not have a flush. Am I missing something here?


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i just think he is donking the flop with a large range of hands (as many retards at 1/2 do), so we are not getting check raised as often as everyone seems to think.

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This is a pretty key point. If you look at that flop donkbet (and calling of our raise) and think "flush draw" (like I did) then you'll want to check behind. If you look at it your way and say "could be anything" then you'll want to bet.

Reading the post again I noticed Aaron's comment that "This is about the third or fourth time he's donked into the preflop raiser on the flop". So I'll concede that tips it to the "could have anything" side. But he also says "has shown signs of aggression" which makes a check-raise (or a river bluff) more likely.

F. Who knows -- it's a pretty close, player-dependent decision, I think.

Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
 

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you don't have to bet the river if he calls the turn. he will call the turn bet with hands we beat but also hands that beat us.

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I think you do.

What is the benefit of betting the turn if you're going to take a free showdown?

- You save yourself half of the pot 20% of the time if villain has crap and won't call a turn bet.
- Making villain fold a flush? I doubt it. It's hard for me to imagine an apparently aggro villain bet-calling the flop with a flush draw, but folding when the flush comes in. Also, the pot is very small, so this would need to work a fairly large portion of the time for it to be correct.

Where is it neutral?

- It's neutral for all hands that villain will call a turn bet with and plan to call a river bet with. If you check behind, he'll either bet these hands himself (and you'll just call), or he will check to you, you will bet, and he will call. This means that your turn value bet doesn't gain anything over checking and making it a river value bet instead (or a value-call if he bets).

What are the drawbacks?

- Getting check-raised. I don't know how often it will happen, but it won't need to happen very often because 2 BB is 40% of the 5 BB pot that you're looking at on the turn.

- You lose the chance to get paid off by super-weak hands. If you check behind on the turn and bet the river, villain may call with a wider range of hands than if you were to bet the turn. The reason is that he knows he's only one bet from seeing what you have. This psychological trap makes him more likely to toss his chips in on the river.

So all betting does is protect 2.5 BB when all both of the following happen:

1) Flush card falls on the river (only 20% of the time)
2) Villain has a hand that he would have folded on the turn

In basically every other case, you stand to do no better. And against the check-raise, you do much worse.

So if you bet the turn, you need to bet the river to pick up the extra bets from hands like the case ace and some king hands to make up for the losses of getting check-raised (which is arguably much worse than saving those 2.5 BBs some small percent of the time).