2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Party 2/4 6-max. Villain is in his first hand at the table and sat with $400. UTG limps, 1 fold, I make it $16 with QQ in CO, button calls, villain calls, UTG calls.

Flop comes TT7r and BB openpushes into a ~$60 pot. UTG folds and its on me (I cover the table). Button has ~$520 and is yet to act.

Your action?

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Fold fold fold.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold fold fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
because he has......

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Disconect!

-SmileyEH

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Got to fold. So many people will do this with 77 to stack a ten, or he might just have a ten and is hoping you have aces and think he's crazy. Sometimes he will be crazy, but it's too much to risk here without seeing him play first.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Tx or 77. Why would he ever bluff here with 3 people behind him? He's hoping you have AA/KK and can't lay it down.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

I fold because I think hes ahead of QQ more times than he is not. Maybe hes a donkey who likes to play AA-KK this way, maybe 77, maybe Tx. Sure, JJ and 98 is possible, but they are more unlikely imo.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

What if I held AA instead? Still a fold?

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Uh, probably, because that adds two hands to the other side of the range that we are beating + they also make more sense in a desperate sort of way.

77 or Tx wants to extract $ here but stupor pushes like this are often a sign of someone trying to protect their hand, so KK-JJ make more sense.

When you have QQ this only makes sense for one hand that you are beating; JJ. Even still, I'm not sure if I would call w/ AA.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

Why do you rule out pairs below JJ? If he's called here, whether he has JJ or 66 is almost irrelevant (as there are almost no hands between those that call-- I can't imagine he's got JJ expecting 99 to call, for example). A lot of the time, this sort of play is a middling pair looking to force out overcards.

This argument is primarily academic. I think it is a fold (with QQ for sure, barely with AA) but I think its closer than others seem to.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

I'm going to ignore the short stack push as far as decisions are concerned. The only question is how do I want to play this hand in a dry sidepot, HU, OOP?

I don't fear an overpair from Button. Since the shortstack is all-in with his first hand in a short buy situation I'm going to flat call and see if the button wants to play poker. I think button folds without a T or 77.

This kind of shortstack play is common enough and I always feel if he wins this it will be a short-lived victory. In the long run the $$ will end up back where it belongs.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to ignore the short stack push as far as decisions are concerned. The only question is how do I want to play this hand in a dry sidepot, HU, OOP?

I don't fear an overpair from Button. Since the shortstack is all-in with his first hand in a short buy situation I'm going to flat call and see if the button wants to play poker. I think button folds without a T or 77.

This kind of shortstack play is common enough and I always feel if he wins this it will be a short-lived victory. In the long run the $$ will end up back where it belongs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you've misread-- BB has a full buyin ($400) to start the hand.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

I totally agree, AA is close, QQ not so much.

Though I don't think you will see villain do this with 99-66 as often as you will see AA-JJ simply because idiots will find more reason to overplay big pocket pairs on one street than they will find reason to overplay middle pairs.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to ignore the short stack push as far as decisions are concerned. The only question is how do I want to play this hand in a dry sidepot, HU, OOP?

I don't fear an overpair from Button. Since the shortstack is all-in with his first hand in a short buy situation I'm going to flat call and see if the button wants to play poker. I think button folds without a T or 77.

This kind of shortstack play is common enough and I always feel if he wins this it will be a short-lived victory. In the long run the $$ will end up back where it belongs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you've misread-- BB has a full buyin ($400) to start the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I gibbering incoherently? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

No, your gibberish is quite coherent.




j/k [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

I think you are right, the decision is close. BB could easily have a small pp here, or JJ, or he could just be an idiot. I might call if it was HU. But given that you may be beat already (easily could be a T, higher overpair) , and that we don't really know what Button will do, I would fold.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tx or 77. Why would he ever bluff here with 3 people behind him? He's hoping you have AA/KK and can't lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just like it makes no sense to bluff here, it also makes no sense to go apeshit with trips, or a boat.

I probably fold this. A very similar hand happened to me a little while ago. I raise 2 cards from the CO, button calls, bb calls. Flop is QQ7, bb insta pushes for like 700 in to a pot of 50, i fold my 2 cards (and i thought to myself, id fold AA). button insta calls. They chop it up with QK.

Although it makes no sense to play it this way, and I will not always put them on trips, I think in a spot like this he has trips more often than he doesn't have it.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

The arguments about making sense are a bit silly. The only thing that would make me want to call is that he may just be establishing an image.

Re: 2/4 flop overbet decision
 

I think I'll start over.

This play comes up quite often and I try to always follow Natedoggs (TAFKAn) Rule of Thumb which says fold. Basically this rule says "Assume everyone's a pussy". That means they will only bet the nuts until you see them do otherwise. Link to the Archives follows.

Natedogg's (TAFKAn) Rule of Thumb

Results
 

Villain showed A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (no spades on the board).

Re: Results
 

Interesting post Ghaz.

Although in this instance you were ahead, without a read I think the only move is to fold. I've seen too many people bounce on a table, use the fact that nobody knows they're play to lay down a huge overbet with the nuts hoping that somebody has something to look them up with. And they after taking the money, split.

It's not a bad play on his part - mostly he's betting that nobody has 77 - even with a T I would probably convince myself that's why he pushed - to catch some donkey with a T to call his boat. Maybe I'm giving these players too much credit.

Re: Results
 

Ghaz.. just so you know if you had posted results in the original post you would have been hit with a deluge of "i call there all day"