The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

I know most people think that the Yankees or Sox are better but think about it. The Jays have Halladay, Burnett,Chacin,Towers, Lilly, Batista which is a great rotation. There bullpen is not great but Ryan should make it competent. Last year they had the 5th best offense in the AL and considering they'll probably trade to get a better hitter now that they have Burnett and that a lot of there young guys like Hill, Rios and Russ Adams should have a better year than last there offense could easily be one of the best three in the AL. Also now that Boston is losing Manny teams will pitch around Ortiz who really is there only offensive weapon. The Yankees are getting old and have been slowly getting worse the past few years and now that they are in debt they won't spend that much money this offseason. Personally I think the Jays have a really good chance of winning the AL East and even if they don't they'll have a good chance at the wild card.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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The Jays are the best team in the AL East

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ok, I'll bet you that the Blue Jays will not win the AL east this year.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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The Jays are the best team in the AL East

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ok, I'll bet you that the Blue Jays will not win the AL east this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'll give him 2-1

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

I must be the only Yankee fan worried about the Jays. I wouldn't be surprised to see NY finish under .500 next year. They still don't have a CF, Posada is getting old, who knows what's going on at 1B. They lost Gordon in the pen. No lead-off hitter, too many DH's, ect. Doesn't look good in NY.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

Didn't they sign Farnsworth for Gordon's job? And Giambi is the full time 1b now, right?

I could see them trade for Pierre soon...

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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I must be the only Yankee fan worried about the Jays. I wouldn't be surprised to see NY finish under .500 next year. They still don't have a CF, Posada is getting old, who knows what's going on at 1B. They lost Gordon in the pen. No lead-off hitter, too many DH's, ect. Doesn't look good in NY.

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I'm not a Yankee fan but I'll happily agree with you. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

When you have an old team like the Yankees, maintaining the status quo is almost always going to be a net loss on the previous season. There's variance, of course, but all things being equal we would expect almost all of their key players except A-Rod, Matsui, Pavano, and perhaps Jeter to be getting progressively worse at this point in their careers.

I also think the Yankees got some good luck last year, getting great production out of some very marginal players like Small, Wang, Cano, and Chacon. Admittedly, they are unlikely to have the same pitching injuries, but I honestly doubt a healthy Wright and Pavano will be better than what they got out of their patchwork rotation in the second half

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Jays are the best team in the AL East

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ok, I'll bet you that the Blue Jays will not win the AL east this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'll give him 2-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Talk to me closer to spring training, but I may take 4-1 if you are interested then.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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The Jays are the best team in the AL East

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ok, I'll bet you that the Blue Jays will not win the AL east this year.

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i'll give him 2-1

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Talk to me closer to spring training, but I may take 4-1 if you are interested then.

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The bet is for Eagleskickass. I want him to put his money where his mouth is.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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I know most people think that the Yankees or Sox are better but think about it.

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i'm thinking about it...and...nope.

burnett's just not that good, really, certainly not as good as josh beckett. nyy will find a way to win, b/c that's what they do. do you really think george will let a little debt get in the way of playoff push? and do you really think boston trades manny if they can't get some offensive firepower in return? boston had offense to spare last year, they just couldn't get people out.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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burnett's just not that good

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12-12 last year with a 3.45 ERA, on a disappointing Marlins team last year. His WHIP is a little high, 1.26, but I think those 198 Ks make it a little better. I feel like he would be one of the premier pitchers in the league by now if he could complete back to back seasons without injury.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

Burnett gives the Jays 16 major league-capable pitchers (Or 14 + League and McGowan, both AAA ready, both prime prospects):

Roy Halladay
AJ Burnett
Gus Chacin
Josh Towers
Ted Lilly
Miguel Batista
Dustin McGowan
Dave Bush
Scott Downs
BJ Ryan
Justin Speier
Jason Frasor
Pete Walker
Scott Schoenweiss
Vinny Chulk
Brandon League

Toronto pitching stats can be seen here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/pitching?team=tor

I think this puts us up there with the ChiSox for best pitching staff in baseball. The offense is still below par, but I'm pretty sure 2-3 of the guys listed above will be gone by spring training, upgrading an offense that was middle of the pack last year. If the Jays can replace Hinske at DH with Overbay and find a middle-of-the-order outfield bat (Abreu? Dunn?), they could well be the team to beat in the East. If we don't find that MOTOOB, I'd still like our chances at a playoff spot. The Yanks are looking almost feeble, and the Sox plus Beckett minus Wells and at best breaking even on Manny, aren't looking like much of an improvement over last year.

Gary

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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burnett's just not that good

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12-12 last year with a 3.45 ERA, on a disappointing Marlins team last year. His WHIP is a little high, 1.26, but I think those 198 Ks make it a little better. I feel like he would be one of the premier pitchers in the league by now if he could complete back to back seasons without injury.

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check out his home/road splits. he pitches very well in a good pitching park and pretty average everywhere else. he and ryan aren't really gonna be the difference toronto needs to catch the sox/yanks.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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I know most people think that the Yankees or Sox are better but think about it.

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sure, they are improving their pitching, even though that's a risky statement (burnett, chacin). plus there are very few pitching staffs that will match up well against both new york and boston, even without manny ramirez.

their defense overall is not any better which was only marginally better than nyy or bos.

their offense is not going to improve this season, which was average in the league, and they have to match up against pretty good nyy and bos rotations, johnson, mussina, rivera, schilling, clement, wakefield.

most importantly, this is not april, so there's still a whole lot of time changes coming.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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and the Sox plus Beckett minus Wells and at best breaking even on Manny, aren't looking like much of an improvement over last year.

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We haven't traded Wells yet, so there will be another addition in there. We've also added Guillermo Mota (capable middle reliever), and will have young pitchers Papelbon and Hansen for a full season.

Manny has yet to be traded, and may not, so this is neither a plus nor a minus

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

In terms of putting my money where my mouth is there is a good chance I would do it but I would need to wait until all the offseason signings playout. Now if we look at their team last year Rob Neyer wrote that "Their run differential -- they scored 775 runs and gave up 705 -- suggests an 88-74 record rather than their actual 80-82 record. So it is pretty likely that with Ryan and Burnett they could get 90 wins not to mention that Halladay who was on pace to win a Cy Young missed the second half the year. Considering Halladay's injury (He broke his leg when he got hit by a line drive) That should add some more wins. As I said earlier the Sox and Yankess are going downhill and the Jays look like they should be able to win the division

sports cliches I hate
 

On the list of sports cliches I hate this one falls in 17th place:

"They don't play the games on paper."

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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their offense is not going to improve this season, which was average in the league,

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Their offense was well above average it was the 8th best in the majors and the 5th best in the AL. Also their offense probabaly will improve because they are going to trade for a better hitter like Overbay or Mench.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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In terms of putting my money where my mouth is there is a good chance I would do it but I would need to wait until all the offseason signings playout. Now if we look at their team last year Rob Neyer wrote that "Their run differential -- they scored 775 runs and gave up 705 -- suggests an 88-74 record rather than their actual 80-82 record. So it is pretty likely that with Ryan and Burnett they could get 90 wins not to mention that Halladay who was on pace to win a Cy Young missed the second half the year. Considering Halladay's injury (He broke his leg when he got hit by a line drive) That should add some more wins. As I said earlier the Sox and Yankess are going downhill and the Jays look like they should be able to win the division

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the rest of the article then says:

"There's also a negative indicator, though. Actually, there are two of them: The Blue Jays scored 41 more runs than their underlying offensive statistics would predict and they allowed 23 fewer runs than their underlying defensive statistics would predict.

So considering the Blue Jays' run differential, they should have won more games ... but their run differential shouldn't have been as good as it was."

dude, you should know by now you cant slip [censored] like that past us.

i still don't see how boston is going downhill. most signs point to them win as many, if not more, games next year.

edit: i just realized how few posts you have. oh well, you'll learn in time.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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In terms of putting my money where my mouth is there is a good chance I would do it but I would need to wait until all the offseason signings playout

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I'm sorry, but if you are going to come onto a board dominated by Yanks/Sawks fans in December, and say the Jays are the best team in the AL East, and then give a pussy response like that, your argument has no respect from me.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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In terms of putting my money where my mouth is there is a good chance I would do it but I would need to wait until all the offseason signings playout

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I'm sorry, but if you are going to come onto a board dominated by Yanks/Sawks fans in December, and say the Jays are the best team in the AL East, and then give a pussy response like that, your argument has no respect from me.

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I don't see how waiting to get as much info as possible before I make a bet is being a pussy it's called being smart

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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the rest of the article then says:

"There's also a negative indicator, though. Actually, there are two of them: The Blue Jays scored 41 more runs than their underlying offensive statistics would predict and they allowed 23 fewer runs than their underlying defensive statistics would predict.

So considering the Blue Jays' run differential, they should have won more games ... but their run differential shouldn't have been as good as it was."

dude, you should know by now you cant slip [censored] like that past us.


[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry I actually never saw that part of the article because I was interested with that first little bit but anyways I think the one thing everyone is forgettign is how big a difference having Halladay for the whole year will be.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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As I said earlier the Sox and Yankess are going downhill and the Jays look like they should be able to win the division

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so your argument that they will win is the other two teams (three, if you count the orioles) will beat themselves?

btw, just so all stats are in the open, let's list the jays offense. i am not saying any or all of these are relevant, i am just citing them for completion. the AL rank is in parenthesis.

runs 8th (5th)
hits 13 (9)
hrs 23 (11)
rbis 9 (6)
tb 20 (11)
bb 18 (6)
sb 18 (8)
OBP 12 (4)
SLG 22 (11)
BAA 14 (9)

oh, and do you know in how many categories TOR was actually ahead of either NYY or BOS? just one. boston was ranked 28th in stolen bases.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

nyy > boston > toronto

but the > from boston to toronto used to be a >>>

if anyone actually thinks the yankees have a chance at having a losing season, name your odds, i'll make a big bet with you.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

i'd make that bet also. doesn't matter when, now or in april.

p.s.: voltron, when did you get a *?

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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burnett's just not that good

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12-12 last year with a 3.45 ERA, on a disappointing Marlins team last year. His WHIP is a little high, 1.26, but I think those 198 Ks make it a little better. I feel like he would be one of the premier pitchers in the league by now if he could complete back to back seasons without injury.

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aj burnett (when healthy) + a great defense + pitchers park = matt clement+ a bad defense + a hitters park

this deal isn't a coup by any stretch of the imagination.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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nyy > boston > toronto

but the > from boston to toronto used to be a >>>

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lets see. NYY had everything go right for them last year and finished tied for the AL east lead. the red sox have everything go wrong and finished tied for the AL east lead. this offseason the red sox added solid front of the line pitcher while the yankees degraded thier bullpen. do you really think at this point in time the NYY have a better chance of winning the al east than the red sox? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

EDIT: i suppose saying everything went right for the NYY is a tad much, but i dont think anyone can argue they were much more fortunate than the sox (giambi, chacon, small is enough good karma for a decade)

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

it's going to be another good race.

the red sox replaced a solid pitcher (wells) with another (beckett), are about to lose a 130 rbi hitter (manny), and still have doubts about their ace (schilling), bullpen, and closer (foulke).

the yankees lost a declining setup man (gordon) for an promising setup man (farnsworth). shedded a couple of contracts, but still have questions in their rotation (pretty much everyone), and centerfield.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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NYY had everything go right for them last year

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whoa, whoa, whoa...

i believe some pitching injuries played a part in the yankees season

If you want to say the nyy and boston are equal i won't argue with that, im biased of course.

I dont see how boston can be a favorite, look at the lineups of the teams. bostons bullpen also sucks. as for the upgrade downgrade part... this is a pretty identical yankee team to the one which was supposed to be the best in MLB last year in preseason talk. i know they are older and theres definitely a lot im worried about, but I still don't see how boston can be more heavily favored.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

IMO the jury is still out. The two keys will be which bat do the Jays add to their lineup, and will Manny Ramirez get traded.
Assuming the the Red Sox trade Manny and don't get full value for Manny, which is a reasonable assumption. I believe
2006 Jays > 2005 Jays
2006 Sox < 2005 Sox
2006 Yanks < 2005 Yanks

If people talk about Burnett being a question mark, I will remind you that Schilling and Beckett are question marks as well.

This Yankee team doesn't appear to be improving significantly this offseason. They are getting older, and several of thier players are getting worse. I don't feel confident in thier starting rotation, will Small and Chacon stay consistent? Is the Unit done? Is Moose done? Will Wang continue? IMO between all of thier starters they don't have one who I presently feel is a competent ace.

As for the bet with the Eagles I agree it would be stupid for him to make a bet before all the information was put in. He probably shouldn't have made such a bold statement especially with so many NYY and BOS fans ready to flame. To Kneel B4 Zod anyone taking an even money bet on one team winning a five team division would be a stupid bet.

cdxx said "It's going to be another good race." I agree now a third horse may have been added.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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aj burnett (when healthy) + a great defense + pitchers park = matt clement+ a bad defense + a hitters park


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Tell me this is a joke.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

the red sox replaced a solid pitcher (wells) with another (beckett)

except wells still plays for the red sox

are about to lose a 130 rbi hitter (manny)

'lose' would mean they would not get anything in return. also, i would say the chances of manny playing somewhere else next year are SLIM. again, why does everybody assume he is not going to be in LF next year? not only has his contact become a bargain (when compared to furcal and konerko) but what teams can give the red sox what they want?

oh wait, i forgot!!! manny ASKED TO BE TRADED! it must happen! i remember the time i requested my boss's (sp?) give me head. low and behold, bammmo!

and still have doubts about their ace (schilling), bullpen, and closer (foulke).

fair enough. however, if you were given 1:1 odds would you wager that these two will outperform what they gave last year?

the yankees lost a declining setup man (gordon) for an promising setup man (farnsworth)

wow. at *best* the NYY can expect farnsworth to be 60% as effective as gordon last year.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

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aj burnett (when healthy) + a great defense + pitchers park = matt clement+ a bad defense + a hitters park


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Tell me this is a joke.

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um, no.

edit: do you plan on proving me wrong? dont bother [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

i believe some pitching injuries played a part in the yankees season

you mean the ones that brought these guys into the rotation?

shawn chacon, who pitched the best baseball of his career

aaron small, who pitched the best baseball of his career (by a huge margin)

wang, who was serviceable as a rookie

all those guys had enoromous success with BABIP etc.

thats not even brining onto the debate that jason giambi went from kevin millar to babe ruth.

I dont see how boston can be a favorite, look at the lineups of the teams.

ok. as of right now i would expect them to be equal at best (for NYY sake)

bostons bullpen also sucks

papelbon/arroyo
timlin
hansen
foulke
mota

wouldnt say it sucks. of course, i assume you think foulke is toast. only yankees can have bad years and come back to play at hall of fame levels.

bostons rotation is easily better than the NYY.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

Assuming the the Red Sox trade Manny and don't get full value for Manny, which is a reasonable assumption.

a reasonable assumption is it will snow in december in the northeast. saying an originization will trade a valuable commodity at a discount to a competitor is not a reasonable asusmption.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

sh*t, you nailed me. for some reason i thought i read somewhere that wells wasn't coming back. can't find it now. i am wrong, this is a retraction.

sure, they'll get something in return for manny. but he pretty much said he doesn't want to play there anymore. i don't think his ass will be in LF. i may be wrong.

i think that farnsworth will be 60% as effective. i may be wrong.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

you don't think nyy has a better lineup than boston? come on.

i like how when the yankees pull players who perform well out of AAA it becomes them getting really lucky. if you want to say that their BABIPs were lucky, look them up and post them, its a pretty lame argument to just say "yeah the yankees had a lot of pitching injuries but they actually got lucky, trust me".

same for the giambi... i dont see the point. he made a huge miracle comeback, how does that get held against the quality of the team?

as for bostons bullpen...

foulke- hasnt been so good for a while
papelbon- very unproven, last years whip was 1.47
timlin- hes 40, his whip has been going up every year for a while, last year it was 1.32
hansen- who?
mota- who?

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

ou don't think nyy has a better lineup than boston? come on.

no.

they were virtually equal last year, what has changed?

if you want to say that their BABIPs were lucky, look them up and post them,

ill leave it to the guys who enjoy doing that. ok, lets presume their BABIP were normal for SP's.

are you now going to argue that small and chacon didn't overperform last year? lol, you said that the yankees had injury problems with their staff and i showed you how the problems were probably good for them (ie pavano and wright would not have outperformed chacon and small). my point was (and is) that the NYY were the more fortunate team last year. any gamble they took paid off for them, while the red sox had basically nothing go right for them.


same for the giambi... i dont see the point. he made a huge miracle comeback, how does that get held against the quality of the team?

huh? i said they NYY were luckier than the sox last year and gave giambi as an example. i am confused???????

ok, lets try and look at this from my perspective!

heres the debate. which team should win more games over 162 trials, the red sox or the NYY. here is what we know:

last year they played the same amount of games and finished with the same records.

a logical place to start this debate would be looking at last years rosters and going from there.

so far the sox have added:

a top of the rotation pitcher

(i will leave out secondary aquistions)

and maybe lost their CF (which i dont think will happen. all indiactions out of the winter meeting are damon will resign)

NY: has lost a reliver who was probably one of the top 3-4 relief pitchers over the past 3 seasons and replaced him with a guy who has never been more than a mike timlin on an average year. and lost thier CF for sure.


my argument: the red sox have added a top of the rotation starter and were very unlucky last year, while the team they were tied with got lucky in some key areas. if both teams finished with he same record, and one get better while the other seems to have got slightly worse, logic would seem to dictate the team that got better should win more games going forward.

your argument: the red sox bullpen sucks and then yankees lineup is better

lets assume damon resigns and the yankes trade for juane pierre.

how can you not look at both these teams offseasons and see the red sox clearly had the better one?

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

Oops not as what I meant it to say it should be...
If they happen to trade him they will not get full value for him. It's pretty hard to argue that.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

[ QUOTE ]
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aj burnett (when healthy) + a great defense + pitchers park = matt clement+ a bad defense + a hitters park


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Tell me this is a joke.

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um, no.

edit: do you plan on proving me wrong? dont bother [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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How about according to cbs.sportsline's player rankings Burnett was the 24th best starter and Clemnt was the 67th. These rankings are completely stats based and have no subjectivity so they are pretty good. Obviously the rankings are not perfect but that's a pretty huge difference.

Re: The Jays are the best team in the AL East
 

link pls thx

I'm guessing their criteria blows.