easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

foxwoods 1-2 nl

i just started to go on a little rush and for some reason i knew my cards before i looked.

relative stacks
utg 152
mp3 550
hero 227

hero is bb, played tight all night folded mostly
utg seems like a rational player but nothing spectacular
mp3 is a calling station who is just waiting to go bust

utg raises to 12
folds to mp3 who donks it to 25
folds to hero with kk who makes it 75
utg thinks and think and pushes for 152
mp3 pushes for 550
hero has 152 to call into 450

now i know i have mp3 beat but for some reson i figured utg for aa before i looked at my cards and i seriosuly said in my head please dont give me kk. but i had it and knew i had mp3 rocked. so with 152 if i call all my chips 75 goes into the main pot then 75 in the side so if i win the side i break even.... pointless even if im ahead its a losing situation for me because best i can do is break even for the side. #2 for the main pot i figure if utg has aa then im 3.8 to one if mp3 has underpair to my kk. 4 to 1 if he has ax which is what i thought he may push with being a huge donkey. so im getting 3 to 1 on the call. even if you think you are behind do you call this....

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

Playing 1-2NL and getting the odds you have I cant see how you can fold here though I agree it looks like you are against AA here a good bit of the time. Call, I cant see you lay down KK getting that price.

Furthermore, if your reads are right then you are a big favorite to win the sidepot and you can always suck out the main pot (or be ahead)


If you never folded KK preflop until like 400-600 NL you would be making +EV decision. Dont worry about it, even experts lose their stack with KK vs AA

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

utg raises to 12
folds to mp3 who donks it to 25
folds to hero with kk who makes it 100

That's the only difference, either way, get your money in the middle!

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

with the utg raise i swear i said this guy has aa, even before any other action... something just told me he had aces and i thought to myself i usually get a cooler about now.... please please dont let me see kings and i did. just a gut feeling i had and with his stack 100 pot sticks me here. 75 allows me to get off the hand.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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with the utg raise i swear i said this guy has aa, even before any other action... something just told me he had aces and i thought to myself i usually get a cooler about now.... please please dont let me see kings and i did. just a gut feeling i had and with his stack 100 pot sticks me here. 75 allows me to get off the hand.

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STOP. STOP NOW. NEVER CONSIDER FOLDING KK AGAIN UNTIL YOU GET TO 600NL. JUST STOP THIS CRAP. STOP.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

Easiest call in the world. Especially since hero is certian to be ahead of MP1. So, at worst, UTG wins the ~$450 main pot and hero wins the $150 side pot. Hero is -$75 if UTG has AA and + ~$400 against everything else.

edit - misread hero's stack size as $450 in my original answer.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

not an option.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

i show kings and fold, utg shows aa mp3 shows jj. when you know youre beat, you know youre beat, so dont tell me to stop, its not crap it was a perfect read.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

bad fold.

Wouldn't you be mad if he had KK or QQ instead of AA, both of which are reasonable hands.

Gut feelings don't work too well at low stakes.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

if you have a solid read, you have a solid read most likely he won't have KK, since then all the kings would be out. And also, since he is a decent player, he won't go all-in w/ QQ. The only hand left is AA. Good read, and good fold.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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if you have a solid read, you have a solid read most likely he won't have KK, since then all the kings would be out. And also, since he is a decent player, he won't go all-in w/ QQ. The only hand left is AA. Good read, and good fold.

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Huh? I like to go Allin with QQ most of the time, I dont know about the rest of you. This really isnt a good read, but a lucky one. A gut feeling of "he has AA" is a terrible reason to throw away KK pf, esspecially with the odds your getting.

Your claim that the only hand left that goes allin there is AA is wrong imo. I see QQ or better, including AKs your losing to one of these and getting 3-1 to play. Insta call.

Folding here is terrible. Your "great read" was merely a lucky guess and I doubt you'll make many +ev plays based on this form of desicion making.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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i show kings and fold, utg shows aa mp3 shows jj. when you know youre beat, you know youre beat, so dont tell me to stop, its not crap it was a perfect read.

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No, it was a crap read. The entire forum here has told you that you playe poorly (raising half your stack and then folding the rest) because you DID play poorly. If you are so confident in your hand reading skills that you can confidently lay down KK here go take a loan and start playing 10k no limit. Until then have some humility, realize you made a crappy fold for horrible, misguided reasons (do you even know the math here to make this fold correct, I dont), and get over yourself.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

75 out of 225 is not half my stack, im a 3.8 to 1 underdog to aa with jj i nthe hand. pot is giving me 3 to one to call. if i call 150 more from mp3's all in i put 75 into the main pot and 75 into the side pot. if i lose against aa but beat jj i win how much...... 150. its a break even bet with no positive expectation because thats all i can make from the side pot, so in other words to make money off the hand i have to beat the aa. i fold, keep 150, or call and beat jj and my stack stays at 150. if i cover the second all in i call imediatley. i dont think there is enough in the side pot to make the call. no one has touched on that yet. and if you think kk is not a hand to fold at 1-2 then you have some serious thinking to do. and its not about me being full of myself. i didnt post this to have anyone say good fold. i posted to see if anyone thinks that the line of thought given pot odds and resonable hands makes sense. to me it does, to others at the table it did, maybe to you it doesnt

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

in my original post i specifically said utg was a very rational player. not spectacular but thought many things through. now given this and given the amount of money in the pot and the fact is went raise reraise reraise and an all in i highly doubt that a rational player here has qq or ak suited. there is not a chance he is pushing with anything less then kk and since i have 2 of them it makes kk highly unlikely. i dont know how many good players push raises and reraises after they raised pf with qq or ak suit. if you know where these games are please PM me and let me know and i will be there in a heart beat. they can pay for my trip. all IMO

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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75 out of 225 is not half my stack, im a 3.8 to 1 underdog to aa with jj i nthe hand. pot is giving me 3 to one to call. if i call 150 more from mp3's all in i put 75 into the main pot and 75 into the side pot. if i lose against aa but beat jj i win how much...... 150. its a break even bet with no positive expectation because thats all i can make from the side pot, so in other words to make money off the hand i have to beat the aa. i fold, keep 150, or call and beat jj and my stack stays at 150. if i cover the second all in i call imediatley. i dont think there is enough in the side pot to make the call. no one has touched on that yet. and if you think kk is not a hand to fold at 1-2 then you have some serious thinking to do. and its not about me being full of myself. i didnt post this to have anyone say good fold. i posted to see if anyone thinks that the line of thought given pot odds and resonable hands makes sense. to me it does, to others at the table it did, maybe to you it doesnt

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I thought you had 150, I see now you didnt, my mistake.

Folding KK at 1-2 live with <300bb without convincing evidence (which I do not feel is present) is a -EV decision that you are free to make , just know that the majority of respectable posters (which I may or may not be) disagree with the aforementioned decision. At some point you will do this, and villain will have 1010. I agree that if you could make UTG's hand range only AA then this is an easy fold, you cannot make this read. Your typical UTG has AKs, KK, AA, QQ, JJ, 1010, and maybe even some other random garbage here. Your KK is +EV against that range. I disagree with your analysis and conclusions. If you can demonstrate to me mathematically how sure you were here and then use the pot odds to prove your fold was good (please use hand ranges and pokerstove), then I MIGHT consider it, but as your posts so far stand, and what I perceive as your understanding of the game, I am extremely skeptical.

Edited: I agree you do not call to chop, but nothing about your reads indicates that you are chopping here x% of the time (I do not know how to carry out the proper analysis here) and that this fold is right against villains hand range (based on your reads). Please enlighten me.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

you dont call for a chop esp when there is a good chance you are beat. only hand im ahead of here logically is qq which is so unlikely given the player and they way ive been playing.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

If you think UTG as AA and MP3 has Ax, then neither has good odds to improve so your odds may be a bit better than 3.8 to 1. You'd be way ahead of MP3 based on this read, with a chance sucking out on UTG and taking the whole pot.

If you were heads up with UTG and he put you all in I think you could make this laydown and feel good based on your read, but you had pretty good odds to call here if you felt a read of AA and Ax were strong.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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I thought you had 150, I see now you didnt, my mistake.

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this was my whole point about the post my stack size post raise and amounts needed to be called into each pot. plus i dont get into pokerstove and all that and i understand utg typical ranges. hes seen me play and i have raised 4 pots pf in 4 hours. he knows im tight tonight and i also have seen his play. he hasnt gotten out of line once. my whole thing was is it a weird fold with kk because of the side pot. do you fold if you see utg and mp3 hands is my basic question. im in a break even with the side IF i win and i have a chance to beat the aa. i think the call has -EV because of the break even fact. if i had 400 behind pf then 325 after my raise i beat mp3 in there with my stack. so with my relative stack do you agree more with the fold? do you fold if you see utg aa as well as mp3 jj?

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

ax could have been everything. at worst i though aq suit because he was so bad.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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I thought you had 150, I see now you didnt, my mistake.

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this was my whole point about the post my stack size post raise and amounts needed to be called into each pot. plus i dont get into pokerstove and all that and i understand utg typical ranges. hes seen me play and i have raised 4 pots pf in 4 hours. he knows im tight tonight and i also have seen his play. he hasnt gotten out of line once. my whole thing was is it a weird fold with kk because of the side pot. do you fold if you see utg and mp3 hands is my basic question. im in a break even with the side IF i win and i have a chance to beat the aa. i think the call has -EV because of the break even fact. if i had 400 behind pf then 325 after my raise i beat mp3 in there with my stack. so with my relative stack do you agree more with the fold? do you fold if you see utg aa as well as mp3 jj?

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Hmmm, I see the point of your post now. For the record, I dont fold at all, I lose my stack if UTG has AA. As for your other point, if we assume that you will break even by stacking MP 4/5 of the time, and suckout on UTG 1/5 of the time, then is this a neutral ev call? (This analysis is very rudimentary and poor). I still maintain UTG does not have AA 100% of the time, so I guess that would tip this to a call.

Someone please correct my analysis.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

I am one of the people in this forum that has folded kings pre-flop.

I dont have a problem with it if you know the person that re-raised very well and they know you very well. A few of the regular players that I played against back in the day were good enough to know I would only re-raise a re-raise big like that with AA-KK. These are players that I have played many hundreds of hours with at the table, and the good ones flat out knew better than to come over the top of my large 3 bet with QQ. For them to come over the top means they had to have aces. And more than once they mucked KK pre flop against my aces and showed it to me.

However, you seem to be basing you fold on magic. You knew you had kings before you looked at the cards? You prayed not to get KK? You knew the other guy had aces? This is not hand reading this is voodoo.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

thanks for the post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

my fold wasnt based on that. it was kinda scarry that it actually happened that way because once he raised its what went on in my head. i said hell probably have aa and ill wake up to kk, and i seriously thought that thats what happened. my fold wasnt based on it. what hand would a logical/solid/rational (whatever you want to call it) player give you 3 to 1 on with all their chips in the middle after his raise, reraise, and a reraise, OOP. it has to be aa or kk and i have 2 kings so its easy to put him on aces. thats what the fold was based on as well as pot odds which you can read in other posts cause im not writing it all again.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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my fold wasnt based on that. it was kinda scarry that it actually happened that way because once he raised its what went on in my head. i said hell probably have aa and ill wake up to kk, and i seriously thought that thats what happened. my fold wasnt based on it. what hand would a logical/solid/rational (whatever you want to call it) player give you 3 to 1 on with all their chips in the middle after his raise, reraise, and a reraise, OOP. it has to be aa or kk and i have 2 kings so its easy to put him on aces. thats what the fold was based on as well as pot odds which you can read in other posts cause im not writing it all again.

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There is no way this guy playing 1-2 live planned his raise amounts to get into the middle giving you 3-1. I still think you are giving him way too much credit, and still think this is a textbook call.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

maybe so. im sure it wasnt planned that way. ive been told i think too high of a limit for 1 2 but still with everything said i thought it was the correct fold and i respect your opinion

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

2 things-
1) You're leaving a lot of info out about why you think he has aces before you even looked at your hand. He raised 6x... was this out of the norm? Did he normally limp with Kings? I've seen 1 or 2 people who NEVER raise unless its aces or kings. If its not those guys... I don't see how you can put him on one and only one hand when all he's done is open the betting.

IF you clearly put him on aces... why the hell did you raise? Clearly you didn't believe your own read.

2) Here's the biggie... how can your raise to $75... then fold to $75 more, especially since you're certain UTG has aces? Think of it...

If you fold, you're left with $152 and no chance to improve.
If you call, and you're right... you are likely way ahead of MP3... perhaps as high as a 4-1 favorite. around 80% of the time, you win the side pot and you're left with $150 ($2 less then if you call)
approx 10% of the time, you'll hit a set and scoop... meaning 10% of the time you win a $606 dollar pot.
approx 10% of the time mp3 might scoop and you lose it all.

This doesn't even take into account the times your read is wrong and you're ahead of them both...

I think that was a bad fold.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

[ QUOTE ]
2 things-
1) You're leaving a lot of info out about why you think he has aces before you even looked at your hand. He raised 6x... was this out of the norm? Did he normally limp with Kings? I've seen 1 or 2 people who NEVER raise unless its aces or kings. If its not those guys... I don't see how you can put him on one and only one hand when all he's done is open the betting.

IF you clearly put him on aces... why the hell did you raise? Clearly you didn't believe your own read.

2) Here's the biggie... how can your raise to $75... then fold to $75 more, especially since you're certain UTG has aces? Think of it...

If you fold, you're left with $152 and no chance to improve.
If you call, and you're right... you are likely way ahead of MP3... perhaps as high as a 4-1 favorite. around 80% of the time, you win the side pot and you're left with $150 ($2 less then if you call)
approx 10% of the time, you'll hit a set and scoop... meaning 10% of the time you win a $606 dollar pot.
approx 10% of the time mp3 might scoop and you lose it all.

This doesn't even take into account the times your read is wrong and you're ahead of them both...

I think that was a bad fold.

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Nice analysis - totally agree.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

Kurto said what I said only better. Nice.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're leaving a lot of info out about why you think he has aces before you even looked at your hand. He raised 6x... was this out of the norm? Did he normally limp with Kings? I've seen 1 or 2 people who NEVER raise unless its aces or kings. If its not those guys... I don't see how you can put him on one and only one hand when all he's done is open the betting.

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this was a feeling at first then the push sealed it for me that he had aa, tight player hasnt been out of line at all. tight. i raise to find out where im at pf.......

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Here's the biggie... how can your raise to $75... then fold to $75 more, especially since you're certain UTG has aces? Think of it...

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it wasnt a fold to 75 more it was a fold of 150 more. mp3 pushed with 550, so i put 75 main and 75 side. calling this had 0 EV because i cant make anything more then i have i can only lose the money i still have in front of me (with the given side pot) now yes i have the chance to scoop or dump the main pot which is what i thought about and i just didnt like it with the given odds if my hands that i thought others had were ball park. think about all this this way. 0 in the pot. you have aa your opponent has aa he pushes for same amount you have and your not invested in the pot, (hypothetical no blind game) also you see he has aa. all you can do is suck out get sucked out on or break even. same idea here. me being ahead of mp3 does nothing for me with my stack size because of the amount that has to go into the side pot. i know im ahead but IF i beat him i only get back what i had in front of me. with a small chance to scoop and a small chance to get sucked out on. i decided to stick with the fold and not risk the chips.... also why pump up the good player 75 more and let the donk lose 75 more id rather have him have more money and get in with him later

if my read was wrong i kick myself in the rear and say keep working on your reads and just play kk for all my chips everytime pf..... like i have so many times in the past knowing someone had aa but i couldnt release kk

i do like your thinking about the hand though. the chance to win it all or lose the little left may be a good shot here. guess i just didnt want to risk it. thanks for the post

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

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As for your other point, if we assume that you will break even by stacking MP 4/5 of the time, and suckout on UTG 1/5 of the time, then is this a neutral ev call? (This analysis is very rudimentary and poor).

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no neutral ev on side pot becuase i cant win any more then i have left behind me which is what i think i am ahead on. give away 75 and take back 75 no real point in the call. i can only suck out to win the whole main and get sucked out on to lose the side

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

Let me know where people fold KK preflop and I'll be there in a heartbeat.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

C'mon guys, this is standard "read-into-his-soul" play. Do some research, or develop your own ESP, and stop berating those of us who have it.

Re: easy kk fold??? 3 to 1 on my money
 

It's a good fold, look at the action, UTG raise, reraise, reraise, push, push, and nobody has AA?