Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

UTG+2 opens, HJ 3-bets, I cap JJ in the BB. No real read on my opponents, but I have been playing fairly tight. I had not seen the HJ 3-bet preflop before, so I'm not quite sure of his 3-betting range. Does this look like a scared QQ?

UTG+2 folds and its heads up to the flop of K99 rainbow. I bet he calls. Turn is a 7. I bet he calls. River is a T. And the river line is...

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

You're only ahead of AQ here and I don't think he has that very often. He also appears to be calling you down, fearing AA, KK or AK. He usually has QQ. Getting ~9:1, I would probably check/call and wish I had check/folded.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that. But I'm not very optimistic. I think Villain probably either has QQ or even AK (he could be scared of AA) or is slowplaying.

You probably won't get a bet out of AQ no matter what you do. But I'd be choosing between bet-folding (hoping Villain will call with AQ or a stubbornly played pocket underpair) or check-calling (hoping he'll bluff if checked to).

Edit: Oops, I got the sequence of cards mixed up.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that.

[/ QUOTE ]

The ten came on the river.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is ahead of TT on the turn, so it 28:11

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is ahead of TT on the turn, so it 28:11

[/ QUOTE ]

If we decide to call down on the turn because of this we have to keep in mind that we are getting 10.5:2 to call down. imo if he has AQ/TT he is not betting the turn so if the turn goes check/bet the likelihood that we are behind is higher.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

The math I posted is for the river, not the turn.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 6
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 3
99 - 1
AK - 12
AQ - 16 discounted to 8 since most don't 3-bet and would have a hard time calling the flop

Ahead of 8 behind 31. 31:8 ~= 4:1. So, check/fold, in fact, on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure we should discount AQ that much, but in any case TT is 6 combos we're beating on the turn instead of 3 we're losing to. Which changes the ratio to 28:14, at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

For some reason, I only had the first three responses (including my erroneous initial one) in front of me.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

For some reason, I only had the first three responses (including my erroneous initial one) in front of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, cool. Thoughts?

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, I don't know. I think it's close.

I've been seeing a fair amount of 3-betting with AQ lately. I don't know how often that hand is getting folded instead, though.

I know it's a crappy flop for AQ, but I can imagine someone peeling with it on the flop. But, yeah, I think we need to discount it. I mean, it shouldn't be easy for Villain to peel with AQ on that flop, versus a preflop capper.

How often will a 5/10 unknown bluff AQ if checked to on the turn? I'm not sure. Certainly not always. Hero has represented a big hand.

I'd rather not give a 6-outer a free look at the river and would probably bet-fold. (And I do think if Villain holds AQ and peeled on the flop with it, he'll most likely fold it now.) But I'm not at all sure bet-folding is best.

We are probably behind, and the chances of this do go up if we check and Villain bets. So I think you make a good case for a turn check-fold.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that.

[/ QUOTE ]

The ten came on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and I think the situation looks pretty bleak on the river. Villain probably wouldn't still be in with AQ, and he might have dumped a pocket underpair by now too (if he would 3-bet preflop with one of those in the first place).

I think the river is a check-fold. If your hand is best, Villain might check behind and let you win. But I doubt you're best very often here at all. That ten on the river ruined your best remaining hope.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I'd bet/fold the turn. I'm quite willing to concede the fact that we're likely behind here, but I think the size of the pot warrants one more bet. Given the amount of strength you've shown - capping pre-flop from a blind and betting a K-high flop - I think QQ will fold the turn often enough to justify the bet.

But, once it gets to the river, I think I'd check and fold. You're just not ahead of anything in his likely range, and if he got to the river with QQ, he's not folding it.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I check/folded the river.

I'm torn between check/folding and bet/folding the turn. I think betting is better because of folding AQ/QQ and having lower pairs fold so I don't have to play the river. (While many of these hands should fold the flop I think many players foolishly peel here.) After he calls the bet on the river I don't think I have the best hand enough to warrant calling if he bets after I check, and I don't think QQ is folding after calling the turn.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I don't like the pre-flop cap, personally. We're not that far ahead of the ranges of a legit (though unknown) UTG+2 open-raiser and a legit HJ three-bettor. Calling in allows us to exploit our relative position and check-raise a lot of good flops. If UTG+2 caps behind us it also gives us information that will make the hand much, much, much easier to play.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I agree.

Although this time capping did allow the hand to be played heads up. Granted, out of position. And also I was trying to use my image to get hands to fold when they shouldn't.