Should I see the flop or just let it go now
PF 3-bettor in the hand in question is a bit over-aggro, 29/8/3.25, whereas the PF capper is unknown. But he seems a bit on the weakish/tightish/thinkingish side based both on a hand where he angrily complained about folding overpair KK on a board with heavy action because he feared a set and QQ took it down, and on this amusing NC hand, where he was the BB:
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls. Flop: (9.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls. Turn: (6.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, BB calls. River: (9.20 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls. Final Pot: 11.20 BB Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> Hero has Js Ad (four of a kind, threes). MP3 has Td Tc (four of a kind, threes). Outcome: Hero wins 5.60 BB. MP3 wins 5.60 BB. </font> Anyway, here's the hand in question: Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero... |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
I guess the odds you're getting aren't so bad. But I don't like playing just for a straight. And versus two cold-callers, a 3-bettor, and a capper, I'm worried that's what I'd be doing.
So I think I'd fold. |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
Seems like you'll get 9:1 at best if you're lucky. My cards are hitting the muck. Too much risk of domination too.
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Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
I'm guessing BB capped as the hand history only shows a call.
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Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
[ QUOTE ]
Seems like you'll get 5:1 at best if you're lucky. My cards are hitting the muck. Too much risk of domination too. [/ QUOTE ] Since we've already invested 2 SBs, it's more like 9:1 if we're lucky. |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing BB capped as the hand history only shows a call. [/ QUOTE ] Look at the second hand. |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Seems like you'll get 5:1 at best if you're lucky. My cards are hitting the muck. Too much risk of domination too. [/ QUOTE ] Since we've already invested 2 SBs, it's more like 9:1 if we're lucky. [/ QUOTE ] I've no idea what you're talking about [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] *Walks away whistling.* |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm guessing BB capped as the hand history only shows a call. [/ QUOTE ] Look at the second hand. [/ QUOTE ] Doh! Yeah, fold. |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
[ QUOTE ]
*Walks away whistling.* [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
9:1 sounds good on paper, but KQo is a payoff hand and subject to terrible reverse implied odds, right? Still, maybe I can get away from it postflop if I don't flop something great. But what if I flop something like 2 spades and a gutshot, etc... it's a tough decision, hence the post. Keep talkin'.
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Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
The pain of playing it makes me want to fold. Now if they were sooted...
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Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
Me no likely. I'm tossing preflop.
1) Chances that we are dominated is very high. 2) Getting away even if we are dominated might be damn hard. 3) KQ is a crappy multiway hand and we are oop in a 5 player pot. Even with the huge pot I really don't think we can play this when basically just gunning for a straight. |
Re: Should I see the flop or just let it go now
How often will you flop a doozy?
By the looks of it, you will flop either a straight/OESD/2 split/trips just about 7% of the time. All of these hands comblined figure to win $$ postflop on average, so you would need a bit over 13:1 to call here (if they broke even postflop, less if they win). Of course it depends how much $$$ you can pull with these hands postflop and how well you can manage lesser flops like gutshots and one pair hands. I don't know if a good player can call, but if you do call, you have to be very careful and not trap yourself postflop with a weak hand. Playing for the big flop might sound like a weak way to play in a huge pot, but you can ill afford to make mistakes with this kind of underlay. I guess I would fold here. |
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