s
 

The villain on my direct right is mysteriously unknown. His [censored] stats won't show up and I haven't seen him play a hand. The guy on his right has been involved in about a dozen hands, seen the flop on about 7 of them, and has yet to bet or raise.

I think all streets post flop are pretty questionable. I suppose my line was a Wa/WB line trying to keep the donk around to add some equity. Versus an unknown, I'm kind of thinking I should have folded that river.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(8 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP1 checks, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.00 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

River: (8.00 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.00 BB.

Re: s
 

hey buck

looks good.

Re: s
 

you definitely cant fold the river, he could do this with any PP, 5x, maybe even a flush draw with a 9 or an 8.

i think this is pretty perfect.

Re: s
 

I raise this flop. Smaller pairs are calling you down, and if they have an A you can get away from it without putting in 2BB on the bigger streets. Also, you'd never play an A like this if you had one, so you're just making yourself more readable by calling down here.

When there is a flush draw on the flop the hand is not a WA/WB situation. You can't fold the river against an unknown.

Re: s
 

I had a hand very similar to this tonight. I raised the flop, but forgot to heed the warning when I was reraised. So, I think you've got to raise this flop, but be prepared to lay it down if you face any further aggression - unlike the way I actually played mine [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] The way you played it, I think the river call was correct.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this flop. Smaller pairs are calling you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

The accuracy of the second statement would appear to be the real point of contention here.

fwiw i disagree

Re: s
 

shant

do you do this as your default against unknowns? what if they turn out to be a post-flop flush draw maniac or goes crazy with low pocket pairs on paired flops? we only have one overcard to worry about here so i dont really feel our hand is vulnerable. even with hearts we can hit a fat Q of hearts and destroy this guy. if villain checks on the turn or river ill be happy to fire but until then i dont mind being a calling station. am i missing something here that is keeping me from playing 4k/8k with doyle?

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise this flop. Smaller pairs are calling you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

The accuracy of the second statement would appear to be the real point of contention here.

fwiw i disagree

[/ QUOTE ]
True, sometimes a 5x hand won't look you up, but you would be surprised how much 77 or 99 takes the hand to showdown, especially because I raise these flops without an Ace a lot.

Re: s
 

I think raising the flop for value is almost certainly wrong. My game would be pretty damn aggro if my standard read for an unknown is that they'll call down here with a hand like 66; I'm not buying it.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
shant

do you do this as your default against unknowns? what if they turn out to be a post-flop flush draw maniac or goes crazy with low pocket pairs on paired flops? we only have one overcard to worry about here so i dont really feel our hand is vulnerable. even with hearts we can hit a fat Q of hearts and destroy this guy. if villain checks on the turn or river ill be happy to fire but until then i dont mind being a calling station. am i missing something here that is keeping me from playing 4k/8k with doyle?

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand that the prospect of an unknown going nutso with a flush draw or a 5x hand is a possibility, but if he is truly that aggressive than he earned this pot from me and I will find better spots against him later.

I just think the missed value, protection, deception, and unreadability is more important. Keep in mind I play a higher limit but I like responding to hands in all forums. You can decide for yourself if the pros of raising that I'm pushing are valuable at this limit.

Re: s
 

one thing though: lets say sometimes they (5x and PP) call down, sometimes they peel the flop and fold the turn.

when you just call down, intending to bet the river if checked to:

you are guaranteed 2.5BB.

when you raise the flop and then bet the streets and they call down, you get 3BB, 0.5BB better than just calling it down yourself

but when you raise the flop and they peel and fold, you only manage 1 BB, 1.5BB worse than just calling it down yourself.

this means that in order to be a better play, you need to have them call down &gt;75% of the time.

this doesnt even bother to factor in the times the vil has an ace, where we cant lay and lose a lot more than the 2.5BB we would have lost by just calling down to begin with.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this flop. Smaller pairs are calling you down, and if they have an A you can get away from it without putting in 2BB on the bigger streets. Also, you'd never play an A like this if you had one, so you're just making yourself more readable by calling down here.

When there is a flush draw on the flop the hand is not a WA/WB situation. You can't fold the river against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Spot on.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising the flop for value is almost certainly wrong. My game would be pretty damn aggro if my standard read for an unknown is that they'll call down here with a hand like 66; I'm not buying it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand what you're saying here. Don't you want to be called down by 66?

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just think the missed value, protection, deception, and unreadability is more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this statement. True it is higher risk against an unknown, but in general you'll get called down often enough with worse hands. Also at this level, an ace will fire back allowing you to get rid of it before it gets too expensive, but the drawing hands will usually go into call down mode.

Re: s
 

When you have AK and this exact action takes place, how do you play the hand? If I raise QQ, AK, flush draws, and flopped full houses on this flop, I am setting myself up to be paid off a lot more. I'm not sure if opponents at this level are paying attention but as you move up this is more and more important.

Also, I don't have much problem laying this down if I'm 3-bet. The times they do 3-bet a 5x hand, a flush draw, or 77 are so infrequent I don't think you need to worry about it. It is unfortunate you don't have a read now, but sooner or later a player making plays like that will make himself known to you and you will be able to take advantage.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just think the missed value, protection, deception, and unreadability is more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this statement. True it is higher risk against an unknown, but in general you'll get called down often enough with worse hands. Also at this level, an ace will fire back allowing you to get rid of it before it gets too expensive, but the drawing hands will usually go into call down mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate this reasoning. who is to say that at this level a flush draw doesnt fire back, or another hand you have outs against?

the thing is, based on his hand range, we KNOW calling down is +ev

folding when ahead is a million times worse than calling when behind here.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand what you're saying here. Don't you want to be called down by 66?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just saying that I was skeptical at the time whether or not a bet would only fold waeker ahnds that might bet later or get 3 bet by better ones - I was not assuming that 66 would call down. I guess I'm wrong though.

I still don't think that my hand is very readable. If I were villain without an ace, I might very well fear a checkraise from a slowplayed ace hand on the turn - maybe even the river. It was the fact that he didn't fear the checkraise that made me a little scared at the river, although I would never fold that there.

Re: s
 

interesting. thanks ill think about this.

Re: s
 

I kinda like a raise against a typical player. You will very often get reraised when 2 aces are on board and he has one. With just one ace it gets tougher because his A-crap doesn't look so good when you raise the flop. I like calling against better players because they have a good counter strategy. Namely it is to call the raise and then check/call the turn and check/call (or bet) the river. You can probably make a good information raise here though against a typical player.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
i hate this reasoning. who is to say that at this level a flush draw doesnt fire back, or another hand you have outs against?

the thing is, based on his hand range, we KNOW calling down is +ev

folding when ahead is a million times worse than calling when behind here.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said against an unknown the risk of folding when ahead goes up, but in my limited experience the flush draws generally slow down on a board like this when someone pushes back. I'm willing to take that risk.

Re: s
 

shillx: so when raised you lay this down??


i really dont think that the percentage of his range in which a flush draw occurs (and where it would be correct to charge the extra .5BB) is anywhere near enough to call this anything but WA/WB. particularly when there is 4.5BB already in the pot on the flop.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this flop. Smaller pairs are calling you down, and if they have an A you can get away from it without putting in 2BB on the bigger streets. Also, you'd never play an A like this if you had one, so you're just making yourself more readable by calling down here.

When there is a flush draw on the flop the hand is not a WA/WB situation. You can't fold the river against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah i like the ol' 2+2 raise fold to a 3 bet on the flop. for the reasons the black guy mentioned

Re: s
 

your getting ~15 to 1 when you raise and he 3bets.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
your getting ~15 to 1 when you raise and he 3bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but if you are behind an ace, then you don't have the required 22-1 to catch a queen.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
your getting ~15 to 1 when you raise and he 3bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

After we raise and establish that he has the case A, can we make up the deficit in implied odds?

If the Q does fall, there is only 2 possible combos of AQ (which we can discount) out there and villian is drawing to 7 outs 99% of the time.

This means villian has only 15% equity if we make our hand on the turn. We have 85% of all money from there on in.

I think a conservative estimate would be ~5BB implied earnings. Hero owns 4.2BB or 8.4sb.

8.4sb + 15sb = 23.4sb requiring 22.5:1.

But then there are the time he slows down on the turn to aggression because he fears his kicker is no good but then go nuts when he fills up on the river.

I think the marginal +EV you might have by making the call is negated by the times he flips over A5.

I think it's close but I think folding is better.

This hand/situation coming up so rarely + you hitting your 2 outs on the turn so rarely + 15% chance of taking a severe beating when you hit = fold.

Re: s
 

You think it's conservative to say that you'll get 5BB after the flop if you turn a Q? I think the only way 5BB go into the pot from a typical player is if you're beat. I'd say 3.5BB is a conservative number, and I still agree with you that you can fold to the 3-bet on the flop.

Re: s
 

[ QUOTE ]
When you have AK and this exact action takes place, how do you play the hand? If I raise QQ, AK, flush draws, and flopped full houses on this flop, I am setting myself up to be paid off a lot more. I'm not sure if opponents at this level are paying attention but as you move up this is more and more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about call-call-raise with AK and call-call-call with QQ? This allows villain to bluff the most and puts him in a spot where he's just one bet from looking you up, making him more likely to call. In the back of my mind, I have this hand which I posted not too long ago.

Re: s
 

Aaron,

I occasionally take a call, call, raise line too. But I usually do that when there has been another raise before the flop so I can put my opponent on a range where I am way ahead or tied with them and want them to keep betting their JJ-KK or AQ. It also helps if I have a read on the opponent as a strong player who can read hands and will lay down to aggression. I don't think this situation is anywhere close to that one.

Re: s
 

...grunch...

I dont see how the flop call is even close to correct.
Given the possibility of a flush draw, I dont see this as a WA/WB situation either. (You're about 2:1 against any two hearts that dont include an ace)

His donk bet on this board into the PFR doesnt scream confidence to me.
I raise the flop and take a free showdown if I feel I need it. (IE the flush got there, or the hand isnt HU)