Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

So a friend of mine brought this up and in truth I had never thought about(mainly due to limited live play experience) and dont really know the answer.

He said that good players have seen fairly consitent win rates of 1-2BB/100 playing live. His question to me was why doesnt that same player make 3-6BB/100 online. I think he was basing this on the fact that 30-40 live hands is 1/3 the 100-120 hands that are played per hr online(hes talking shorthand games here).

The first thought that came to my mind was regarding true win rates and sample sizes. I dont want to turn this into a debate for what sample size is needed, but Ive heard anywhere from 100-500k for exposing "true" winrates. Playing 30-40 hands an hr at only one table I dont imagine many players have that kind of sample for live play, which could affect results.

Another possibility was differance in games, but from my limited live play experience I dont think the difference, if any, would be enough to drastically affect win rates per 100 hands.

The final thought that I had pertained to ability to read players/body language better, but again I didnt think it would cause such drastic differences.

Any other thoughts/theories on this? If its been discussed before Im sry, I searched and didnt find anything of much help.

Thanks in advance,
Evan

PS- I suppose the final thought I had was that he was misinformed of live win rates, but havent looked into that side of it yet.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

Why would the number of hands dealt per hour affect the win rate per 100 hands? It might take twice as long to play 100 hands, but you're still looking at win rate per 100 hands, not per hour, right?

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

A slower game might provide slightly more time to think through [tough] choices which would allow for better decisions, but I think any gain would be extremely small.

Close decisions are just that - close decisions - and the net gain from playing perfectly as opposed to extremely well is tiny at best.

I mention this only to be thorough; what likely happened here is the OP stumbled over his words.

If I have a win rate of 2 big bets per 100 hands it doesn't matter if it takes an hour, a week or a year to play those 100 hands.

My guess is he meant to suggest that a player who wins "X" per hour live ought to win much more online assuming the quality of the games are close to equal - and he is, of course, correct in this assumption.

Online games typically produce twice the number of hands per hour as do live games; even without multi-tabling, and allowing for the somewhat better level of play online as opposed to live, one's HOURLY win rate online should exceed that of live play by a significant amount.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

Honestly, I don't understand what you are trying to say. If you make 1 BB/ hr live and get 40 hands/ hour, then you are winning 2.5 BB/100 which is very much comparable to what very good players can make online. Where is the inconsistency?

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

Ugh I totally mistyped that, thats what I get for being up for almost two days.

What he asked was regarding a win rate of 1-2BB/HR live, not per hundred.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

[ QUOTE ]

What he asked was regarding a win rate of 1-2BB/HR live, not per hundred.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then it should equate just fine. A player who wins 1-2 BB/HR live he should win double or triple that online with two to three times more hands dealt per hour.

If he's winning more live it might be due to physical reads? Or perhaps if multi-tabling online it's due to not paying as much attention to each individual table (which is of course somewhat expected and should be taken into account in an expected win rate)...

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

What level are you playing live, and what level online? In my experience the 2-4 online game is a helluva lot tougher than a 2-4 live game.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

This post was in regards a discussion we were having about win rates and sustainabilty. He has been playing Paradise 5/10(one table at a time) and is seeing a win rate of something like 6BB/100.

He was asking me if I thought this was sustainable and such. His sample size was about 5k hands...so you can prob guess my answer, that it is most likely not.

To that answer he followed with what I posted...why isnt 6BB/100 a realistic run rate if 1-2BB/HR was live.

I guess this whole thing is hinging on whether or not a player can pull 1-2BB/HR out of a live game.

I was just thrown off because by my understanding(from browsing these forums for quite some time), that the best..read best players in the 5/10 short games were pulling between 3-4BB/100, not the 6 that he thought was realistic and was wondering if anyone had any more insight into this.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

I'm still not sure I comepletely understand your question, but maybe it has something to do with comparing limits, online vs live.

If someone is winning 1-2/BB hr live at 3/6, he might be able have a comparable online WR at MICRO limits. 3/6, 4/8 etc are the "micros" of live play. You can't really compare limits online and live.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

Live reads can help a bit, as sometimes players all but tell you (or, in fact, simply tell you) that they have a weak hand they are going to call with anyway or that they won't call on the river unless they hit their draw. So the times when you have a marginal value betting hand (case 1) or also missed a draw (case 2), you know exactly what to do. But I don't think that accounts for a whole lot, because those kind of scenarios don't occur very often.

Some live 10/20 games have worse players than your typical 0.5/1 online game, and a more favorable rake structure. I think 4-5 BB/100 is probably sustainable in the microlimits (depending on their particular rake structures), so getting close to 6 BB/100 with a better rake structure might be possible.

So my general intuition is that 2 BB/hour at a live game is pretty tough to do, unless the opponents are very bad, the rake structure is favorable (so hard to do at a live 3/6 game), and you get in a lot of hands per hour. But it seems realistic to have a long-term winrate that approaches 2 BB/hr, and so you should certainly expect there to be live pros who make 2+ BB/hr for stretches of several years.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

This is a bit of an off-topic, but how do no-limit BB/100 rates compare with limit?

Thanks

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

For whatever its worth, my winrate live is almost double that what it is online. Live you get better reads, are more focused on the one game, get tells, and really observe the players to the extent that you have insight into their thought process.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

The point is a range of 1-2 BB per one hundred hands (1-2 BB/100 Hands) is just describing your win rate. Online you would still win that same 1-2 BB per one hundred hands; however, you would play more hands per hour and therefore have a greater HOURLY win rate online.

Let's assume:

1. You beat a $10-$20 game for 2 BB/100 Hands.
2. You play in a live game that plays 30 Hands/Hour.
3. You play in an online game that plays 50 Hands/Hour.

If we examine the win rate in terms of hands played, it will be 2 BB/100 Hands regardless of the location of the game.

However, if we examine the HOURLY win rate at each location we reveal:

LIVE

2 BB 30 Hands .6 BB
--------- X ---------- = --------
100 Hands 1 Hour Hour

ONLINE

2 BB 50 Hands 1 BB
--------- X ---------- = --------
100 Hands 1 Hour Hour


This is why, if you play online and live, you must play three to four times your regular online stakes in a live game to sustain the same hourly win rate (in terms of cash) per hour in that live game.

Re: Win rates of 1/2BB live dont translate to 3-6BB online, why?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What level are you playing live, and what level online? In my experience the 2-4 online game is a helluva lot tougher than a 2-4 live game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, imagine that you are newer to poker, or know that you just aren't that good. Where would you like to sit? Most likely the cheapest table.

Online the cheapest is $0.02/$0.04, $0.10/$0.20 and $0.25/0.50 (for some sites this appears to be the lowest).

B&M - the lowest is $2/$4 or $3/6, which seems cheap to a newbie gambler when it costs $15 min to play one gamble at the other casino games (roulette, etc.)

My first B&M experience was CircusCircus on a weekend trip. I was a beginner and it was a blast! I got drunk, played all night(literally), and played extremely poorly. I only bled 20BB. This may seem like a bad night to some, but you should have seen what I was betting. (I actually can't remember much of it). I passed out at the table too. So in my opinion, B&M is way easier. I have bled way more than 20BB playing much better at $1/$2 or $2/$4 on-line, trust me.

(It was $3/$6 at CircusCircus).