ruined by the river
 

3/6 6max (yeah, i should probably start posting over in hush, but that's neither here nor there), currently 5handed

i'm in the sb with JJ, one spade, one diamond

a tag that i have hundreds of hands with opens . he's solid, but he (for whatever reason) really likes to mix it up with me. usually in blind battles. usually this means being overly aggressive, not tricky.

i 3bet he calls.

flop comes A3diamonds and an 8 of not diamonds

bet/call.

turn is a 7 of also not diamonds

bet/call (?)

river is an 8 of diamonds and i can't imagine why i'd want to put any more bets into this pot

Re: ruined by the river
 

Is he the type to bet at you with nothing if you check because you showed some weakness? If so, will you call if he bets? I played JJ live yesterday in 2/4 in the SB, raising, and wound up facing 3 players and QKxA board. The Ace river caused me to chicken out and not bet it as I had both flop and turn. Got checked around to find out no one had an Q, K or A! Check if you feel like it, but if he bets, I think you need to call on this read in particular.

Re: ruined by the river
 

Given your read, my preference is for check-calling the turn and river. First, you could easily be behind, and playing out of position against a TAG is a great way to get charged the max. Second, if he has decided to see a showdown with something like 99, he'll probably raise the turn intending to check behind on the river. Third, the chance of him semi-bluffing a flush draw are pretty high, so you don't need to worry about giving a free card as much.

Scott

Re: ruined by the river
 

Hi Errant by bet/call do you mean villian called your bet on both streets or you bet and called a raise on both streets?

Re: ruined by the river
 

i bet and he called. sorry, that was misleading.

Re: ruined by the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Errant by bet/call do you mean villian called your bet on both streets or you bet and called a raise on both streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ooh, good question. I had interpreted the action as bet-call on both streets rather than bet-raise-call. If it's the latter, then I would need to know exactly how overaggressive he gets with you, but I doubt I'd donk the turn then.

Scott

Re: ruined by the river
 

i don't think he raises the turn w/o an ace

Re: ruined by the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think he raises the turn w/o an ace

[/ QUOTE ]

So the turn plan was bet/fold?

Re: ruined by the river
 

yup... this was also my plan for the river... but then i disliked the river card... i'm wondering if it really changes anything

Re: ruined by the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think he raises the turn w/o an ace

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a pretty tight read given his aggro nature against you, which makes me curious how he's been overplaying hands?

Scott

Re: ruined by the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
yup... this was also my plan for the river... but then i disliked the river card... i'm wondering if it really changes anything

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it changes anything. Let me flip it around if checked to on the turn would he bet anything but an ace? Personally i have a hard time not wanting to get to showdown against an aggressive player with a hand as strong as yours but it sounds like you have a pretty good handle on this guys post flop play. I know i wouldn't check the turn unless it was with the intention of check/folding. So i guess at that point i really think you have to decide if your showing this down or not. This of course assumes the river isn't another overcard to your pair of jacks.

Re: ruined by the river
 

he goes too far with top/mid pairs.

if it was a K or a Q there, i'd be more inclined to believe he'd raise with an 8, but we've had enough battles and i've 3-bet c/r's enough (aggressively, even) that i don't think he c/r's me w/o a hand he's willing to showdown.

Re: ruined by the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
that i don't think he c/r's me w/o a hand he's willing to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean that he doesn't raise this turn without a hand he's willing to call a 3-bet with? Because otherwise I don't see how your read differs from my comment about him raising TT/99 and checking the river.

Scott

Re: ruined by the river
 

i'm not certain if bet the turn, c/call the river

c/call the turn, c/call the river

or

bet the turn, c/fold the river

is the right play

my intenton was to c/call the river... as i think villain will sometimes take a shot when i check... but i'm uncertain my bet/fold plan on the turn is solid. and now that the river decreases the possible holdings villain would play this way that i beat... i'm wondering if this is an easy muck

Re: ruined by the river
 

What hands, in addition to Ax and xx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], will he call the flop with? The turn? What are the chances that he will smooth call the flop with Ax or xx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? The turn? Also, what position was he in? A-rag would make a lot of sense here, but only if he's in the CO or OTB.

Scott