q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

If my hand is good enough to call this river, is it good enough to push.

Villain is 73/10/1.23 and 24 wtsd after 50 hands. He appears very loose and quite aggresive. His range includes any sort of flush or maybe air? Probably a flush.

Fold? Call? Push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($65.85)
Button ($45)
SB ($60.40)
BB ($79.40)
UTG ($45)
MP ($169.03)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $2.50.

Turn: ($7.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($7.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $30</font>, Hero ??

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

I'm pushing here. Your river bet looks like a weak steal attempt. If he has an overflush, then he takes my stack. The straight also hit so it's hard to put him on the nuts here.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

That's a tough spot, because to villian it doesn't look like you have a flush. After all, who bet's that flop with a flush draw? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] (nice play there btw) I'm not pushing this. I error on the side of caution. If he can c/r a better flush on the river, he can have $30 from me there; but, I don't see any reason to give him another free $30 on top of that.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

It might help to know how he got his stack that high. Stealing a lot or showing down good hands.

A lot of aggressive players make huge stacks bluffing or who are willing to put all their money in with a low flush and are up against people who will call them with 2 pair, a straight, etc.

Is he bluffing at every scare card?

Also... regarding the overbet he's making; is this standard for him? Presumeably he's done this before and there's been some showdowns... how strong was his hand?

I'm certainly not folding my hand to a guy that loose. The question is do I reraise. And to answer that, I want to know the answers to my questions above.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river? Tough spot if you don't know where you stand (and if you're beat and you push; you're set to lose a lot of money)

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

I'm inclined to push because of his stats

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

"If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river?"

I suspect I could answer that question if I'd been sitting at the table for awhile. I'm willing to bet if he's willing to make this overbet with something like a straight or a really weak flush, he's not going to fold to the allin (which would be nothing more, at this point, then a minraise)

Do you think the villain is going to raise it $30 then fold for $30 more?

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

I'm not worried about being beaten in this spot by an opponent with those stats, and therefor I push. I think its more likely that you have HIM overflushed here if a flush is what he has. His hand range for this can be HUGE given the action. If he planted this elaborate trap on me while im holding the 3rd nuts, he can pat himself on the back for his brilliance and take that extra 30 off me. He calls with a lot of holdings you beat here.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

Actually I hadnt seen him show down much of anything, and I suspect he stole two hands from me, so I think he thinks he can push me around. If villain HAD a set or 2pair, he is NOT folding to the push, just my read at least.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

http://www.homepokergames.com/scotty.jpg

All you can eat, baby. He's not folding a baby flush, a set, or probably even top two for $30 more.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

I think he's holding the Ace of diamonds with something either a 2 or 7 (non-diamond). He saw a good opportunity to bluff holding the Ad, knowing you could not have the nuts. Still a little scary to push. I think I'd just call. If you push and he has you beat, that sucks.

Enjoy Life!

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

I think you guys are missing a lot of value not pushing in this spot.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

I'm assuming that the 1.23 in the stats is the villian's aggression factor. 1.23 means a good amount of calling relative to betting. This may mean he calls too often or he is passive or both. I find some passive players check call with 2 pair or a set and then put a big bet on the river sometimes. I wouldn't rule out something he made earlier in the board than the river card. Given that he puts money in the pot preflop 73% preflop of the time he could have just about anything for two pair j7, j9, 79.

all possibilities for a flush: 36 ways
you beat: 21
you lose to: 15

Of course some of the low hands he is not going to limp because he folds outright about 27% of the time preflop. As a rough estimate let's take out the bottom 27% of the flushes possible. 27% * 36 = ~10. And let's take out AsKs since he would probably raise preflop.
so...
you beat: 11
you lose to: 14

If you assumed he had the flush (read) you look to be a slight underdog to be winning. But if you think other hands are possible then this is worth at least a call.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that the 1.23 in the stats is the villain's aggression factor. 1.23 means a good amount of calling relative to betting. This may mean he calls too often or he is passive or both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure this is true with a VPiP of 70+. It looks pretty aggressive to me, but I am not a mathematician. Perhaps someone will enlighten me.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

i push. i think that someone who raises that much raises Axs most times, and i can just see so many smaller flushes playing this way along w/ whatever else a donk might have here and still call...

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

I think the aggression factor = bet+raise/call
So folds don't come into play and i don't think it matters how many hands you play. It only matters what the ratio between your betting and raising and your calling.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

[ QUOTE ]
i push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that all the sensible TAG's are in MSNL, we are left with all the high variance maniac's down here in SSNL. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I still think a call is correct here. Pot is a boring $7.25 when the river card is dealt. I hit my hand and get $30 more out of villian, I am happy with that. I don't have the nuts, I don't have the second nuts. There's a nice chance Hero loses this hand. No sense in shelling out an extra $30 when you don't have too.

Let me ask all the maniac pushers this question: If, instead of c/r'ing, Villian led into Hero for $30 on the river, how many of you would advocate pushing then? Most of you would probably be folding in that spot. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

push and hope he doesn't show a better hand. I expect to win ~ 4/5 of the time. He could show a str8, some weird 2 pr, set, or baby flush.

Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
 

Logically, I think I have to call, because I am good more than 50% of the time, and following that logic, wouldnt a push be correct, since he is not laying down two pair or better?