AK play vs. TAGy
 

Villian is 24/11 over 54 hands. I did a post a little while ago and most people seem to agree that I am not seeing showdown enough (24% WTSD) and folding the turn too much. I am trying to improve this... how is this hand?

My WTSD% for this session (400 hands 3 tabling Pokerroom) was 33%.

Also, can anyone give some suggestions of types of hands I should post to improve my WTSD% and turn play?


Sorry, HH converter wasn't working.

Texas Hold'em $2-$4 (real money), hand #1,543,073,501
Table Nee Soon, 2 Dec 2005 11:45 PM ET

Seat 1: CharliesArmy
Seat 2: rhinonyssus
Seat 3: darana
Seat 4: PepperJester
Seat 5: Hero [ AD,KD ]
Seat 6: sevice
Seat 7: Imadonkey
ANTES/BLINDS
PepperJester posts blind ($1), Hero posts blind ($2).

PRE-FLOP
sevice folds, Imadonkey folds, CharliesArmy bets $4, rhinonyssus folds, darana folds, PepperJester folds, Hero calls $2.

FLOP [board cards 8C,QD,7S ]
Hero checks, CharliesArmy bets $2, Hero bets $4, CharliesArmy bets $4, Hero calls $2.

TURN [board cards 8C,QD,7S,9H ]
Hero checks, CharliesArmy bets $4, Hero calls $4.

RIVER [board cards 8C,QD,7S,9H,10H ]
Hero checks, CharliesArmy bets $4, Hero calls $4.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

I would have played it the same...

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

Why is this worth calling the river? IF this player is a TAG he beats you with anything except for AK and does he 3-bet this on the flop?

I c/f the turn and if I don't c/f the turn I c/f the river as AT and AJ now beat me.

Also he has to have AK 14/4 (1 in 3.5)for this call to be correct, which I think is far from legitimate.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

3 bet preflop, the way you played it you can fold the turn against a reasonable opponent

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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3 bet preflop, the way you played it you can fold the turn against a reasonable opponent

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I am not sure I agree with the 3-bet pf due to our position, but it is close.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

I agree with True, this is a horrible calldown. Just about anything beats you. Any pocket pair and any hand with a 6,7,8,9,10,J,or Q in it beats you. Your only hope is a split with AK, and I highly doubt AK is betting this river.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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3 bet preflop, the way you played it you can fold the turn against a reasonable opponent

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I am not sure I agree with the 3-bet pf due to our position, but it is close.

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im 3-betting this every time, AKs is ahead of a TAG middle openers range and it gives us more fold equity on the flop if we miss

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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im 3-betting this every time, AKs is ahead of a TAG middle openers range and it gives us more fold equity on the flop if we miss

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I concur. As played, flop is good, fold turn.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

Yea, river call was pretty out of line. What about the turn though? Most people think I should fold the turn or call one more bet?

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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Yea, river call was pretty out of line. What about the turn though? Most people think I should fold the turn or call one more bet?

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getting 6 to 1 on that board after the flop action, i think you can fold

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

I would fold the turn with no remorse.

newhizzle, say you are ahead of his range with AK. When he caps, you are now behind of most of his range and are committed to putting another SB in Preflop.

Does the fact that he will cap anything that you don't beat but only call things that you beat make up for the fact that you may be ahead of his raising range...?

I am not sure if this is close at all but it may be interesting since you are OOP. Does anybody know the answer to this?

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I would fold the turn with no remorse.

newhizzle, say you are ahead of his range with AK. When he caps, you are now behind of most of his range and are committed to putting another SB in Preflop.

Does the fact that he will cap anything that you don't beat but only call things that you beat make up for the fact that you may be ahead of his raising range...?

I am not sure if this is close at all but it may be interesting since you are OOP. Does anybody know the answer to this?

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well for one thing if he caps it probably tells us a lot more about his hand, but hes probably not capping most of the time, i think this is a clear 3-bet for value and initiative

edit - and if he does have a big pair, its cheaper than check/raising the flop and calling a 3-bet

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

i dont know exactly what percentage of hands an 11% raiser is raising from this spot 7 handed, but i just plugged top 11% into pokerstove versus AKd and were ahead 60/40

also keep in mind that if he dosent have a pair, we likely have him dominated

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I am not sure I agree with the 3-bet pf due to our position, but it is close.

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Are you kidding? It's not even close! You have a monster hand here.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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i dont know exactly what percentage of hands an 11% raiser is raising from this spot 7 handed, but i just plugged top 11% into pokerstove versus AKd and were ahead 60/40

You are 60/40 versus his raising hands correct...

also keep in mind that if he dosent have a pair, we likely have him dominated

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But when you 3-bet and he calls the 60% of time, you both put in 3SB preflop, so you have a >50% equity of 6SB or approximately >3SB

But if he raises when he is ahead, he has >50% equity of 8SB or approximately >4SB

so 60% of the time you have more of 6SB than him but 40% of the time he has more of 8SB.

I am just wondering if "added with loss for position" this makes this raise not so standard.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I am not sure I agree with the 3-bet pf due to our position, but it is close.

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Are you kidding? It's not even close! You have a monster hand here.

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I don't think it is correct to say we have a monster and that it isn't close without saying why?

Yes we have a good hand, but we are out of position and we are playing against a semi-tight player. If you add in the fact that he will raise hands that beat you and call hands that don't beat you then I am sure the equity edge isn't that high?

Could you clarify why just because we have a good hand we should raise?

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

When considering our equity edge I don't think a hot/cold analysis is enough. Often times when we are ahead we are VERY ahead, and when we are behind its only slight. Getting capped by QQ isn't a huge equity loss, because we're not that far behind. On the other hand threebetting ATs through AQ is massive, not to mention KQs. Sure every once in awhile he'll have KK and AA, but fearing monsters under the bed isn't a reason to not exploit a clear equity edge.

Frogic

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I don't think it is correct to say we have a monster and that it isn't close without saying why?

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I think here it is. It's about the easiest raise ever for a bunch of reasons. This seems like such an elementary move I don't even feel like I have to explain it.

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Yes we have a good hand, but we are out of position and we are playing against a semi-tight player.

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I think you are giving this guy too much credit. My pfr at that level is around 11, but in LP1 if it's been folded around I will open with probably 20% of my hands depending on who's left to act.

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If you add in the fact that he will raise hands that beat you and call hands that don't beat you then I am sure the equity edge isn't that high?

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What beats you here? As long as he doesn't have AA or KK (which he will very rarely have here), you are in good shape. If you 3-bet you take the initiative, gain value learn more about his hand and get a big boost in fold equity.

Again, I think this is so obvious that it's probably a waste of time to argue about it. If I'm wrong here I hope people tell me though bc then I'm missing something huge.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

ok, i just did some math

if we assume he raises the top 11 % of his hands, according to pokerstove, thats 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo+

i think thats fairly accurate from his position

lets assume he caps JJ+, AKo and AKs

now theres 79 combos of 77-TT, A9s-AQs, KTs-KQs, QTs-QJs, ATo-AQo, and KQo(while we have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])

theres 24 combos of AA-JJ, AKs and AKo

with the first set we have 65% equity according to pokerstove and with the second, we have 42%

it costs us 2 bets to 3-bet and 3 bets if we get capped and we get capped about 30% of the time

so 70 % of the time we will pay 2 BB with 65 % equity and 30% of the time we will pay 3 BB with 42% equity

we will forget about the money already in the pot and just see how we do on these bets

70% of the time we turn our 2 BB into about 2.6 for a longrun profit of .6 BB/hand and 30% of the time we turn 3 into 2.52 for a net loss of .48 BB/hand

after 100 hands we have lost 14.4 BB and won 42 for a net of 27.6 or an EV of .276BB per hand

if we call, we are always investing 1 BB and are a 60% favorite against his range 100% of the time, so after 100 hands we have won 60 dollars and lost 40 for a net of 20 BB or an EV of .2BB/hand

so by raising we are making a profit of .076BB per hand plus we will have the initiative on the flop, but ill cancel that out because we are OOP and just look at the EV

someone please check my math, i was just doing this as i was going along, and theres probably a much easier way to do it too

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

The problem with the math, as I see it, is that you're assuming 11% from his position. The 11% is from a full table that I think has gone a bit shy of people (correct me if I'm wrong). And we're talking about an 11% in the hijack -- I don't know about you, but my 9% PFR reflects say an average that ranges from 4% or so UTG and 15-20% from hijack to button. So trotting out the math to reflect only 11% of hands is way off for any villain even mildly aware of position, which I think basically means they're breathing.

Easy PF raise. For many reasons...

One thing I haven't heard anyone say for the PF raise, is that against some of the hands you're an underdog to (99 - QQ) you also have a slight edge post flop if a lone A or K comes along and if you miss the flop. They'll have a tough time folding (well, tough decision time) with the lone A or K; whereas you might have an easier time getting away from your hand if you miss. So, more likely they'll pay you off than you'll pay them off with AK. I'm not sure I'm phrasing this one right, but that's the gist of it.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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The problem with the math, as I see it, is that you're assuming 11% from his position. The 11% is from a full table that I think has gone a bit shy of people (correct me if I'm wrong). And we're talking about an 11% in the hijack -- I don't know about you, but my 9% PFR reflects say an average that ranges from 4% or so UTG and 15-20% from hijack to button. So trotting out the math to reflect only 11% of hands is way off for any villain even mildly aware of position, which I think basically means they're breathing.

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yeah, the 11 % was a generous number in the favor of calling, just sort of giving the benefit of the doubt to his side, i think villain is definately raising more than that making this even more of a easy 3-bet simply for value, not even mentioning postflop advantages

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

I pretty much agree with raising preflop, and probably folding the turn, definitely the river. That is what I would call "standard" play for me. Again, looking at my PT stats, I was trying to figure out ways to see more showdowns, but it looks like this isn't one of them.

I'm trying to change my game a little bit... possibly loosening up my pre-flop range of hands.. staying aggressive on the flop, and a little less aggressive on the turn...

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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so by raising we are making a profit of .076BB per hand plus we will have the initiative on the flop, but ill cancel that out because we are OOP and just look at the EV


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I thank you for doing the math. In my opinion being OOP takes far more than this away from our advantage but as stated from another player he could easily have a looser raising strategy from this position.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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so by raising we are making a profit of .076BB per hand plus we will have the initiative on the flop, but ill cancel that out because we are OOP and just look at the EV


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So you actually stand by your position that this shouldn't be raised?

What if there's a cold-caller on the button? Or a regular guy limps in MP1? Do you raise those?

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

I never said it shouldn't be raised. I would rather know exactly why I am raising rather than just "this is a monster lets push the pot".

If there are other players then we have a clear equity edge, but against one player OOP where we probably have a slight equity edge it isn't so clear.

Obviously I agree that from the results we can now see that raising has a positive expectation however it can't be certain the exact expectation deficiency from being OOP

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

OK, this is my last post on this thread, as this is a . There are a ton of reasons to raise here and, again, you are completely ignoring fold equity and the role of the initiative here. Against this guys range you have quite a bit of equity anyways, you are ahead way more often than you are not and quite often you have him dominated. You shouldn't need Pokerstove to tell you this.

My reasoning goes a lot deeper than "this is a monster hand" but honestly with something this easy you shouldn't need to resort to combinatorial analysis. This is just not a close situation.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

I wrote a bunch of stuff, but just erased it because nothing really matters here but this part:

Nothing, absolutely nothing but AK doesn't beat you by that river. Fold, fold, fold. The way to get to SD more is not by making bad calls on the turn and river, it's by reading the board and your opponent, and making better decisions.

And trying to shoehorn your stats to meet expectations is putting the cart before the horse.

Everyone has their own style. So trying to fit your stats to some composite, average "ideal" is just really, really crazy - and actually mess you up far more than you realize by making you do things that contradict your style.

And I think you need something like 5k hands to make any stat even somewhat meaningful. 400 hands is not meaningful in any way. To even write that sentence... never mind. You get it. Make changes, look at your stats again in a month.