Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

MP1 is and unknown who just sat down 3 hands ago and posted from the CO position. He has shown done twice with decent hands that he chased and lost with and folded once pf. MP3 is not much better in terms of reads, but is 13/10/2.5 over about 30 hands no showdowns that I remember -- no notes.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ?

I want to bet here, but should I? If I bet then MP3 could raise or I could lose MP1 all of which (I think) are -EV I have the one overcard though. If I check then MP3 will probably continue and I can decide to check/raise (or not)but what if he doesn't. Is possible I could get two folds here?

I want to bet here. Should I?

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

With only 2 other people in the pot, you are pretty much neutral ev whichever way you play it, except for the c/r line. The c/r line is gonna be -ev, unless you are sure that MP1 would call 2 cold. Personally I would bet/call.

-Jaran

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Why do you want to bet here?

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Fold this preflop: you shouldn't be playing weak suited aces from this position.

You can either bet-call, or check-call on the flop. Check raising is out of the question: you'll have MP1 facing two bets, likely chasing him out, which you don't want to do. Bet-call is the best way to get money from both MP1 and MP3 into the pot.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

grunchin...

I would probably fold that hand pre-flop unless it was a LPP type of table.

check/call the flop. you have no position here.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Both c/c and bet/call are neutral ev if MP1 calls. I like the bet/call line better because I think he calls my bet more often. Also, if MP3 is a bit on the weak side (no read given to this, but there's a chance), it lets me take control of the hand, and sets up a lovely c/r on the turn/river if we hit. But the c/c line is fine also. C/R sucks [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

-Jaran

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Both c/c and bet/call are neutral ev if MP1 calls. I like the bet/call line better because I think he calls my bet more often. Also, if MP3 is a bit on the weak side (no read given to this, but there's a chance), it lets me take control of the hand, and sets up a lovely c/r on the turn/river if we hit. But the c/c line is fine also. C/R sucks [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. I'm not sure a TAG would fall for a c/r when the flush comes in though.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

I don't think it much matters except that you do not want to check/raise. Your pot equity is about 35% and you'd be contributing 33% of the funds to the pot, so betting is marginaly +EV

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

*grunch*

I would fold preflop. Given we're here though I would bet out and call a raise. My thinking for betting out is if you do hit your flush on the turn your flop bet helps "disguise" it. By leading the flop when a heart hits you could go for a check raise. By checking after the third heart hit it would make it look like you where on Kx and are now worried about the flush. My line could be way off though

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

The best move is to muck this hand pre-flop.

Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player. They may prove me wrong from time to time, but it has served me. So I figure MP1 for a LP for this hand. MP3 may just be buying the button with the pf raise.

Once you take the flop, I think you bet and call flop and turn, check/folding UI on the river. Poker Stove shows equity at 46% against random and "All Broadway" hands and 53% against 2 random hands. So I do not worry about losing MP1 to a bet on the flop.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold this preflop: you shouldn't be playing weak suited aces from this position.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably fold that hand pre-flop unless it was a LPP type of table.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Some thoughts on the first two cards:

First, limping with small pocket pairs and A2s is fine in most micro limit games in any position.

[/ QUOTE ] --Gregatron &gt;&gt;&gt; Here

[ QUOTE ]
I might make the charts a little differently today if I were doing them over.

[/ QUOTE ] --Ed Miller &gt;&gt;&gt; Here

[ QUOTE ]
I own chart players!

[/ QUOTE ] --Anonymous B&amp;M Player

[ QUOTE ]
In general, do not spend too much time contemplating specific preflop plays...... Instead, use that time to improve your postflop play. After you learn to play decently preflop, most of your additional winnings will come from exploiting your opponents' postflop mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]--Ed Miller, et al. <u>Small Stakes Hold'em</u> p. 77

Anyone want to hear a long-winded (probably incorrect) technical discussion of why I generally fold KQ off but call with A9 through A7 suited in early position?? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

@ Milagro, Pokerstars is not as loose as Party is. This is not such a loose game as the list that ED Miller would be talking about. Limping with A7s UTG in a 10 man game on a significantly tight / stronger game than party is incorrect.

I would however tell you that bet / calling is a far better line.

A) MP1 is more likely to call your bet.
B) Bet / Calling will build a bigger pot, it also allows you bet out a flush and perhaps getting a call / overcall again due to the potsize.

Check / Calling also has its merits as sometimes (not often) it may get checked through and you have infinite odds to hit your flush.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually posting in the cutoff position has slightly positive expectation per hand for the first 7 hands (-1.5SB/10 per hand versus -1.0SB/7 per hand) over waiting for the blinds. Also if you are a winning player then your real hourly rate increases if you are in the game sooner. There is also the additional benefit of having a lot of players see you as "weak". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
@ Milagro, Pokerstars is not as loose as Party is. This is not such a loose game as the list that ED Miller would be talking about. Limping with A7s UTG in a 10 man game on a significantly tight / stronger game than party is incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Party isn't as loose as the loose chart wants. Further, I think you're severely over-estimating the skill of the 'Stars 1/2 player. Doesn't matter, though. A7s is right on the bubble, and whether you think it'll be raised immediately after you preflop is more important than the number of players you think you're going to get.

Preflop is ghey, anywah.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually posting in the cutoff position has slightly positive expectation per hand for the first 7 hands (-1.5SB/10 per hand versus -1.0SB/7 per hand) over waiting for the blinds. Also if you are a winning player then your real hourly rate increases if you are in the game sooner. There is also the additional benefit of having a lot of players see you as "weak". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with this line of thinking as you are also "buying" position instead of waiting to be OOP. Without any reads, you get to check or even raise "any 2" in position.

Semi-bluffing is delicious here [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Like Milagro said, debating this PF call is pointless. It's fine. Bet/call and check/call are both fine...why C/R this?
Fwiw, I favor bet/call

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

At the table check/raising never entered my mind. The choice was check/call or bet/call. I gave serious thought to betting but was afraid of paying of a raise by MP3 in a (even if slightly) -EV situation. So I checked with the intention of calling a continuation bet from MP3.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

With a flush-draw, you need two callers for a bet to be +EV. Even then, it's only very slightly +EV (1.9:1 to hit the flush by the river) so any play where there's a good chance someone will fold is -EV.

If you check-raise, there's a good chance that MP1 will fold, leaving you with one-caller. That's definitely -EV since you'd be paying 2 bets at 1:1 and you need to be getting 2:1.

If you bet out, there's some chance MP1 will call and then MP3 raises. That's your best case, and it's only slightly +EV. There's also a chance MP1 will fold and MP3 will call, which is -EV, and there's a chance MP1 will fold and MP3 will raise, which is very -EV.

I'd check-call. This also makes it easier for you to check-raise later if you do hit your hand.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

At a loose table this is fine to limp; at a tight one it's a muck. At stars, I would muck without knowing otherwise, but limping is not bad.

With this big pot I am going to check raise, hoping to fold A10, AJ, and increase my chances of winning if no one has a showdownable hand.

If I am three bet or called in two places I am check calling the turn unless it improves me with an ace or a flush. If I am called in 1 place, I am betting turn and river unimproved.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Using this logic getting them both to fold would bet terrible.

If they both call, you're +EV with the flush draw. If one folds, you've likely bought outs to your A possible even the 7 if you fold out 88 TT Q9 etc

It's a raised pot, driving a player out is not -EV.

BET!

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

I think a CR is a definite option here. If MP3 is a position aware player, his range of raising hands is much larger particularly after two limpers.

You have at least 9 outs to the nuts, and possible pair outs as well. The pot is large, and folding MP1 may allow you to take it down on the turn (in addition to buying outs to your 7) if MP3 peels and folds the turn UI. If not, you're putting in one big bet on the turn regardless due to your nut draw. If MP1 cold-calls with a weak K or other draw, you still retain a small equity edge in the 3-way pot.

The argument against the CR is that you may end up putting in three bets on the flop HU against the PFR.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Betting here sucks. It gives your hand away, doesn't get value and makes it tougher to take down the pot. If you really want to win it, I would check/raise and hope to fold out the 3rd player. Then plan on folding out the PFR with a turn bet (provided he just calls the flop c/r). That seems like a pretty decent option here. Of course you could check/call and I might do that from time to time.

Brad

Edit - You could bet/3bet the flop. I was saying that betting sucks if you plan on just calling a raise.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Any strategy that involves betting this flop is wrong.

If there had been no raise preflop - Super easy bet.
If there is one or two more players inbetween you and the PFRer - Super easy bet.

Just check/call and bet the turn when you make your flush.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you really want to win it, I would check/raise and hope to fold out the 3rd player. Then plan on folding out the PFR with a turn bet (provided he just calls the flop c/r). That seems like a pretty decent option here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this option but villian would be getting ~7:1 on the turn call even if you do fold out MP1.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

My concern with the CR is MP1 folds and MP3 makes it 3 bets. In this case, I think we may be getting the worst of it, but it's 1 small bet so it's probably worth it.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps incorrectly, but I initially view anyone who sits down and posts before the blinds come to them as a weaker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually posting in the cutoff position has slightly positive expectation per hand for the first 7 hands (-1.5SB/10 per hand versus -1.0SB/7 per hand) over waiting for the blinds. Also if you are a winning player then your real hourly rate increases if you are in the game sooner. There is also the additional benefit of having a lot of players see you as "weak". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Run the math for me, if you would. Here is my basis for thinking this way, incorporating my averages.

Assume 20% VP$P, and 30% from SB and 4BB/100 @ 0.50/1. That puts you seeing 27% of the flops at a cost of about 30SB/100 with raises. Your average cost is $0.30 per hand. Average winrate is then a total of 38SB/100 or $0.38 per hand.

Folloing the same line for the remaining 6 hands, you will play about ~1.8 additional hands in the first round. That is 2.8SB for those hands, or $0.40 per hand. Granted it may be insignificant overall, considering that you may play a couple hundred hands at the table before leaving.

I think more importantly, you also give up the advantage of watching the play at the table without distraction for a few minutes.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
My concern with the CR is MP1 folds and MP3 makes it 3 bets. In this case, I think we may be getting the worst of it, but it's 1 small bet so it's probably worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post really isn't of concern at low limits, it is just something that you will begin to need as you move up. It is also good when you are playing against people who know what is going on.

This hand is actually really interesting from a Game Theory perspective (I've been teaching myself NL SNG GT for the last few days...not very thrilling [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Your comment shouldn't be a concern. Having to put in 3-bets with a flush draw is not a probem at all with the equity we have (maybe 40% on average). Thinking about the hand and figuring out why CRing is better then betting is though. Look at why we shouldn't bet here (actually I would bet under one condition)...

1) What other hands are we going to bet? Any pair is going to check/raise this flop. We aren't going to bet/call with something like 2-pair or a set. We can only have a draw when we decided to bet/call the flop. Of course we can bet/3bet the flop, but I don't think that anyone had that in mind when they said "bet".

2) Say we bet and get called. Now what do we do when we miss on 4th street? Do we check/call and give our hand away for the 2nd straight street? Do we bet again and hope to not get raised? It doesn't really put us in a fun spot. The best play would probably be to check/raise the turn if we just get called, and that is what I would do if I get called by the PFR.

3) We will be check/raising the flop with all kinds of hands here. Good draws like the nut flush draw and any pair. We will be betting out with big hands like sets so we would also bet/3bet good draws there as well. We might even check/call-donk or check/call-check/raise with a variety of these hands as well. Now all the suddon we are tough to play against as many hands we are behind get into bad spots.

So here is what I would do with this hand...

- Check/raise the flop with all pairs and sometimes check/raise the flop with a draw. Pairs need protection so we have to check/raise them. It would be nice if we could bet them, but that just isn't the case here. Therefore we have to add a mixer to keep them off balance.

- Bet the flop almost always with a big hand. Intend on 3-betting. Sometimes intend to use this line with a draw.

---- If we just get called, check/raise any turn. If he called the flop with a weak hand, I don't want him to just fold to a turn bet. By checking we can hopefully get another bet out of him with A-high or whatever. We will usually have a set when we check/raise but sometimes have a draw. If he checks behind, we will sometimes gain a free card. It also isn't terrible when we have a set because he will call us on the river (and he would have folded the turn so we get another bet by checking).

- Rarely check/call-check/raise a big hand or draw. Check/call-bet both hands an even lesser % of the time.

Now do you see how tough it is to play against us?

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
---- If we just get called, check/raise any turn. If he called the flop with a weak hand, I don't want him to just fold to a turn bet. By checking we can hopefully get another bet out of him with A-high or whatever. We will usually have a set when we check/raise but sometimes have a draw. If he checks behind, we will sometimes gain a free card. It also isn't terrible when we have a set because he will call us on the river (and he would have folded the turn so we get another bet by checking).


[/ QUOTE ]

Would you c/r the turn with a pair too? Because then if he checks behind, he gets a free card and not us. Which would really suck.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

Grunch:
Preflop is a little thin depending on the table but I tend to limp this.
I think either c/c or c/r flop. With the pre flop raiser in last position a ck/r might fold out MP1 and buy you some outs. You could then ck/c turn ui or bet and raise if you hit your flush.

Re: Flush Draw Check, Bet, or Check/ Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
---- If we just get called, check/raise any turn. If he called the flop with a weak hand, I don't want him to just fold to a turn bet. By checking we can hopefully get another bet out of him with A-high or whatever. We will usually have a set when we check/raise but sometimes have a draw. If he checks behind, we will sometimes gain a free card. It also isn't terrible when we have a set because he will call us on the river (and he would have folded the turn so we get another bet by checking).


[/ QUOTE ]

Would you c/r the turn with a pair too? Because then if he checks behind, he gets a free card and not us. Which would really suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I would not check/raise the turn with a flopped pair (because I will check/raise the flop). This is just a plan and we have to adapt it as we go along. So we have our A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and bet the flop and just the PFR calls. On 4th street the board looks like...

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now instead of check/raising, I would just check and call. A check/raise will only get him to fold hands I have totally killed (like QQ) and will lose more from Ax that just found something. Likewise I don't mind giving him a free card with top pair aces since he will usually have 1 or 2 outs against me.

Now pretend I have a set (say three 6's) and bet the flop. Again just the PFR calls. On 4th street the board reads...

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I will come out betting again as not to give a free card to a naked [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If the turn is the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I will check/raise him.

Brad