Making him fold a better hand
 

UTG is 23/11/2.1 and has a WSD/W$SD of 29/53 over 1070 hands.
MP is a loose, mostly passive player, both pre- and postflop.

First of all, how do we best play the flop against a player with UTG's stats? Any merit to check-raising him and taking advantage of the information a 3-bet from him will give us (because of his AF and the pot being 3-way), perhaps making us fold the turn unimproved? Or is that just wrong?

Secondly, can we use the turned ace to perhaps make UTG fold a better hand, and if so, how? Must not forget that there's a third player involved in the hand that can hold just about any kind of hand at this point.

And finally, if we can't take advantage of the ace to make UTG fold a better hand how should we proceed?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

I don't think you can get UTG to fold a better hand, or at least it's not likely enough to try. If he's got QQ, KK or any A, he's almost certainly going to show-down.

I think I would have 3-bet the flop here and then revaluated based on whether it was capped or not, and whether MP was still in the hand.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards. It's possible to try and make him fold QQ or KK but not likely as the pot is big and you have MP that can have an ace, ten or will outdraw you on the river.

However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

One line is to check raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet. Not saying I would do that, might be too fancy a play. You would be forced to bet the river if he calls the turn raise.

I would probably bet/fold the turn here.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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I don't think you can get UTG to fold a better hand, or at least it's not likely enough to try. If he's got QQ, KK or any A, he's almost certainly going to show-down.


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I doubt he'd ever fold an ace, but I also don't think that's his most likely hand based on the preflop and flop action. The reason I asked is because of his low WSD. If I can't get someone with that low WSD to fold then clearly it's virtually impossible to get someone to fold KK/QQ here. I used to be weak postflop, and my WSD was around 29-30 %. All I remember is that I *could* fould KK/QQ here if I was up against a blind playing his hand like that.

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I think I would have 3-bet the flop here and then revaluated based on whether it was capped or not, and whether MP was still in the hand.

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You think someone with a 11 % PFR and 2.1 AF will cap 99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQs etc UTG in a 3-way pot and then raise the flop so often that we may be ahead here? I'm still learning, but I'd like to think that 99 is very unlikely, and so is AQ/AJ/KQs as well, based both on the preflop and the flop action. Please straighten my thinking and hand reading.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards.

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Is my hand really strong based on the action so far? And how will 3-betting protect my hand from overcards? 3-betting would only serve two purposes here:
1) extract bets when we're ahead, which is very nice, but are we ahead often enough?
2) gain information so that we can fold our hand

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However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

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What about a check-raise? That way we'll get to see what the MP decides to do, and it would put even bigger pressure on UTG since we've played our hand just like an AK?

Results
 

So I check the turn, UTG bets, MP folds, I check-raise, UTG 3-bets and I fold.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

Is a flop bet here mandatory? Or even +EV?
Seems like a prime example of the "Two Overpair Hands" in SSH, to me. When the Ace hits, I think I take WA/WB. The way you played it, I'd check-fold the turn - he's showing down most of the time he doesn't have an ace, and he's beating you with an ace much of the time.

-d

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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Is a flop bet here mandatory? Or even +EV?

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If I put the guy on such a narrow range of hands, no it's certainly not mandatory, or even +EV. But I tend to put people on to narrow hand ranges so I bet in case he has overs.

By the tone of your post it sounds as though you don't consider a flop bet +EV, which is interesting since most people that have responded so far said that I should 3-bet the flop. If the flop bet isn't +EV, then the 3-bet should be very -EV.

All that being said, I'm not sure the flop bet isn't +EV since, despite his low PFR, he may know that the MP dude is loose and cap more lightly. Maybe 11 % PFR's do cap AK/AQ etc preflop in a 3-way pot, or maybe his emotional state of mind made him play a bit more aggro than usual.

So, how often do you think this particular player has 2 overs or a pair of 9's after his flop raise?

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

I was adding it more for conjecture than anything else. I don't think a flop 3-bet is the right play here, though, because you can't protect your hand and you're either slightly ahead or way behind (in that there are about 20 scare cards on the turn but only 2 solid ones).

I'm starting to think that with a 11 PFR, though, he's generally not going to be capping too light, say with 9s or AJ or less. He's almost always betting this flop (with a PF cap and Tot-A of 2+) if you check, so a free card isn't an issue. However, he won't always protect your hand for you with AQ/AK, so you're only forcing out the middle-man (and in a good situation) when:
a) he raises with AK/AQ
b) Middle man will fold the flop for 2 bets but not 1.

Together, i'm not sure they happen that often.

So, upon looking at this, I'm leaning towards a check-call on the flop.

If I did bet-call (as I think I would when I don't have minutes to think about it), i'd seriously consider donking the half the deck that's good.

-d

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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I'm starting to think that with a 11 PFR, though, he's generally not going to be capping too light, say with 9s or AJ or less. He's almost always betting this flop (with a PF cap and Tot-A of 2+) if you check, so a free card isn't an issue.
So, upon looking at this, I'm leaning towards a check-call on the flop.
-d

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Check-call the flop, then re-evaluate on turn?

But you seem to agree with me about this player not capping light, so what about check-raising the flop since he's very unlikely to 3-bet with a worse hand? So if he 3-bets we can check-fold the turn unimproved?

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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By the tone of your post it sounds as though you don't consider a flop bet +EV, which is interesting since most people that have responded so far said that I should 3-bet the flop.

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I would have check/raised the flop, I'm somewhat surprised by everyone bet/3betting

IMO when you lead a lot of players are smooth calling with AK here

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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I would have check/raised the flop, I'm somewhat surprised by everyone bet/3betting

IMO when you lead a lot of players are smooth calling with AK here

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Ditto. That combined with his low PFR made me think a 3-bet would be very -EV. Would be a bit different if we were holding QQ+, but when we only beat 99 or overs, I think a check-raise is the way to go.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

I think check-raising is pointless as it only bloats the pot when our equity edge (if it exists) isn't that great. The only reason to bet out is to hope to get raised by a worse hand or to deny a free turn, neither of which (in my estimation) is happening all that often after the pre-flop action.

I honestly think check-raising is the worst of the non-folding options. (I'd rank them check/call, bet/call, bet/3bet, check/raise with the last 2 being close)

-d

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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You think someone with a 11 % PFR and 2.1 AF will cap 99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQs etc UTG in a 3-way pot and then raise the flop so often that we may be ahead here? I'm still learning, but I'd like to think that 99 is very unlikely, and so is AQ/AJ/KQs as well, based both on the preflop and the flop action. Please straighten my thinking and hand reading.

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I think you are making a common, understandable mistake. Believe it or not, a person who raises a small percentage of hands preflop (say 7%), often does not raise with the best 7% of hands. Strange, but true.

Also, the cap doesn't necessarily mean much either; frequently, those who initiate the pf raising will thrown in a cap, when reraised. Then, with all that action pf, the same type of player (i.e., the apparently extra tight player) might well suddenly show his teeth by raising the flop, now that the pot is pretty big.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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I would have check/raised the flop, I'm somewhat surprised by everyone bet/3betting

IMO when you lead a lot of players are smooth calling with AK here

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Ditto. That combined with his low PFR made me think a 3-bet would be very -EV. Would be a bit different if we were holding QQ+, but when we only beat 99 or overs, I think a check-raise is the way to go.

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You think that people will smooth-call with overs, yet fold to a c/r on the flop? The fact is that someone with AK is very likely seeing the turn either way. We are lead betting because there is a decent chance we are ahead and, if given the opportunity to 3-bet, we want to take it. After 3-betting, a lead turn bet might finally make the overs fold (not to mention get a bigger pot for us).

And perhaps most important, if we 3-bet and lead the turn, it is much easier to assess the strength of our hand thereafter. If you check/call the turn, how will you have any idea whether you are ahead or not?

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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You think someone with a 11 % PFR and 2.1 AF will cap 99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQs etc UTG in a 3-way pot and then raise the flop so often that we may be ahead here? I'm still learning, but I'd like to think that 99 is very unlikely, and so is AQ/AJ/KQs as well, based both on the preflop and the flop action. Please straighten my thinking and hand reading.

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I think you are making a common, understandable mistake. Believe it or not, a person who raises a small percentage of hands preflop (say 7%), often does not raise with the best 7% of hands. Strange, but true.

Also, the cap doesn't necessarily mean much either; frequently, those who initiate the pf raising will thrown in a cap, when reraised. Then, with all that action pf, the same type of player (i.e., the apparently extra tight player) might well suddenly show his teeth by raising the flop, now that the pot is pretty big.

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I disagree somewhat with your post. The key often when evaluating someone else's stats is to ask yourself "is this person sane or insane?" I definately agree that a 56/7/1.2/38 guy could have a lot of different hands when he raises or caps, like you say. However, this player tries to play well but is much too weak tight. When he becomes a little better he'll be like your average 2+2 poster.

Many players who try hard to be good but doesn't have enough experience (especially true for sh games) will end up like this. This particular opponent is playing with too much of a fit-or-fold mindset with his limping hands. Instead of taking control and raising preflop he limps instead, and he folds alot when he doesn't hit. This coupled with how strong he will play his good hands (remember, this is someone who tries to play well) gives him his high agression factor, since he seldom calls hands he should be calling postflop.

Ok kinda an off topic rant there. In this hand, after the flop action, I think UTG has a very strong hand. I'd have betcalled the flop planning on checkcalling the turn and river.

Once the ace shows up the turn is an easy checkfold.

Edited to clarify: I just realized what the title of the OP was. The reason UTG has such a ridiculous WSD number is not because he can be blown off overpairs. It's because he waits for those overpairs/TPTK hands before going to showdown. Don't try to bluff him here.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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I would have check/raised the flop, I'm somewhat surprised by everyone bet/3betting

IMO when you lead a lot of players are smooth calling with AK here

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Ditto. That combined with his low PFR made me think a 3-bet would be very -EV. Would be a bit different if we were holding QQ+, but when we only beat 99 or overs, I think a check-raise is the way to go.

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You think that people will smooth-call with overs, yet fold to a c/r on the flop? The fact is that someone with AK is very likely seeing the turn either way.

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No, I don't think he'll fold to the check-raise. But I think that a) he'll bet his overs on the flop if we check to him, and b) he'll hardly ever 3-bet our check-raise with a worse hand, which means we can check-fold the turn those times he do 3-bet. It would be different if we had QQ or better imo.

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We are lead betting because there is a decent chance we are ahead and, if given the opportunity to 3-bet, we want to take it. After 3-betting, a lead turn bet might finally make the overs fold (not to mention get a bigger pot for us).

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Although he sometimes will raise overs on the flop, he will not always do that, meaning that when we bet and he raises we're not 100 % sure where we're at. At the same time I don't think we're ahead often enough to 3-bet.

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And perhaps most important, if we 3-bet and lead the turn, it is much easier to assess the strength of our hand thereafter. If you check/call the turn, how will you have any idea whether you are ahead or not?

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Who said anything about check-calling the turn? I was advocating a check-raise and lead on the turn if our check-raise is called, which it will be. If we're 3-bet on the flop I was suggesting that we check-fold the turn. The information you get by bet/3-betting should be the same kind of information as you get by a check-raise against a player with this stats.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

Maybe I've been misinterpreting your comments. First, I thought you were concluding that you were behind on the flop, because you put this particular player on a narrow range of hands. And I opined that your range was too narrow.

Yet, in light of the hand range you put villain on, you advocate: c/r the flop and (a) lead the turn if villain doesn't 3-bet the flop; or (b) c/f the turn if villain does 3-bet the flop. Is that a correct interpretation?

If so, Idon't think that line is bad (though it seems to contradict your assumption that you are behind a vast majority of the time on the flop). My only real objection to that line is that you are potentially giving free cards on the flop, or alternatively missing an opportunity to 3-bet against someone who is actually behind.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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Maybe I've been misinterpreting your comments. First, I thought you were concluding that you were behind on the flop, because you put this particular player on a narrow range of hands. And I opined that your range was too narrow.

Yet, in light of the hand range you put villain on, you advocate: c/r the flop and (a) lead the turn if villain doesn't 3-bet the flop; or (b) c/f the turn if villain does 3-bet the flop. Is that a correct interpretation?


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Yes, correct.

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If so, Idon't think that line is bad (though it seems to contradict your assumption that you are behind a vast majority of the time on the flop). My only real objection to that line is that you are potentially giving free cards on the flop, or alternatively missing an opportunity to 3-bet against someone who is actually behind.

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Well, in my experience it's very rare that someone who caps preflop don't bet the flop when checked to and not being last to act. Being behind a vast majority of the time is not the same as always being behind, and if he 3-bet, we should be able to narrow his range of hands to something that has us beaten.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards.

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Is my hand really strong based on the action so far? And how will 3-betting protect my hand from overcards? 3-betting would only serve two purposes here:
1) extract bets when we're ahead, which is very nice, but are we ahead often enough?
2) gain information so that we can fold our hand

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However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

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What about a check-raise? That way we'll get to see what the MP decides to do, and it would put even bigger pressure on UTG since we've played our hand just like an AK?

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3-bet is not for protection. I understand your concern b/c of UTG's PF stats. If you do the maths there are 18 ways for AA/KK/QQ and 16 ways for AK. Even if we are marginally behind, the hand is 3-way so we have enough equity to raise.

The ace is one of the worse cards on the turn but the pot is big enough to try a desperate move.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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3-bet is not for protection. I understand your concern b/c of UTG's PF stats. If you do the maths there are 18 ways for AA/KK/QQ and 16 ways for AK. Even if we are marginally behind, the hand is 3-way so we have enough equity to raise.


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Huh? First of all, if UTGs holdings are limited to AA-QQ and AK (as per your example) we MAY have an equity edge as far as fair share goes, all depending on what the MP is holding. But, not only could we possibly have less than fair share (again, depending on what MP has), the times UTG holds AA-QQ (which he has more 50 % of the times based on card distribution, NOT including the fact that he will not always raise AK on that flop) it will often be capped, meaning our equity edge regardless of what MP holds, is way lower than fair share, making the 3-bet a very bad move.

No, I think bet/3-bet is the second worst line, next to bet-call.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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NOT including the fact that he will not always raise AK on that flop


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This is the only way to play AK. AA/KK he might a lot of times smooth call to let MP in and raise the turn.

Card ditribution makes us a 16:18 underdog which is pretty close to 50% if you imagine that sometimes AQs might cap. Even 16/18 is fine 3-handed especially since MP is so loose that could call with plenty of hands here.

I don't mind the check-raise as well. But why would you C-R if you think you are behind? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] (I'll read your posts now to find the answer)

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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I don't mind the check-raise as well. But why would you C-R if you think you are behind? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] (I'll read your posts now to find the answer)

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I don't think a check-raise is the way to go. I think it's a cheaper way than bet/3-bet to find out whether we are ahead or not. After talking to some people about the hand I think a check-call on the flop is the best line to take.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

I cannot fathom a reason for check/calling this flop, when you have an overpair and there is a significant chance that your hand is best. You get zero information, miss bets and provide infinite odds for anyone drawing.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

You're in a lot of trouble here.

1. You cannot get KK/QQ out because he can put you on something like JJ/99/77 for your preflop 3-bet. You are behind absolutely everything he "should" have except case JJ. You are also behind a ton of other stuff that he "could" have like lower aces, any ten, and snowmen. 23/11 players don't speculate a lot preflop. To respond to another poster, a 50/11 might have some odd PFRs here, but a 23/11 is playing from a (possibly mental) chart and will usually have exactly what you expect.

2. MP has coldcalled twice and will have you beat a ton of the time.

3. There are two flush draws, multiple straight draws, and KQ overcards (likely contained within primary draws) still to be concerned about. You will lose a large percentage of the hands where you are currently ahead. Meanwhile you hope you have two outs but you might not.

I really think you need to stop investing in this situation. How can it be profitable to pay another 2BB+ in trying to pick up this pot? I would check and see what happens next. If it goes bet-call or check-bet you should probably lay this down. You will be wrong once in a while but that's the way it goes. Even if you want to call the turn that still is much better than betting out and having it come back two or three bets as it often will. Remember this is the street where MP will declare his hand. You should see what he does before you make your decision.

Regarding the flop, your pot equity is not so hot after it comes back two bets coldcalled. I agree with the call so that you can act after MP on the turn instead of being in the awkward position of betting out and usually getting raised when you are beat.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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Regarding the flop, your pot equity is not so hot after it comes back two bets coldcalled. I agree with the call so that you can act after MP on the turn instead of being in the awkward position of betting out and usually getting raised when you are beat.

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I don't follow this exactly. What's the problem if we bet first on the turn, get raised and thereby have an easy fold?

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

This is a play I try sometimes and it never ever works and I never fold to it either even if I probably should, so really you're just throwing away bets.
Remember, nobody ever folds a hand with a chance of winning in any decent size pot.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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I don't follow this exactly. What's the problem if we bet first on the turn, get raised and thereby have an easy fold?

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Just to recap, we are discussing 3-betting the flop and leading the turn when a brick hits.

I doubt that there is any direct value in a flop 3-bet as I think our pot equity is below 1/3 after UTG raises the flop and MP calls two cold. Pot equity includes our highly unfavorable out situation and not just our chance of having the best hand now. So offhand I don't feel like reraising the flop in the first place.

On to the turn action. The first good thing about checking instead of betting is it might come back two bets and allow you to make a cheap fold. This will happen a lot because MP will often have the ten or 88 for his flop action and now he is going to pounce.

The next issue is pot size. If you 3-bet the flop and bet the turn there will be 16 BB in the pot when you get yourself raised. By bet-folding instead of check-calling you have sacrificed your two outs which are worth 5% of that pot. That's an EV cost of about 0.8 BB even though the fold is correct.

Plus bet-folding opens the door to folding the best hand causing a gigantic loss.

The argument in favor of betting the turn is that once in a while it will check through when we have the best hand and perhaps an 80% chance of winning. I don't expect that to happen very often because the initiative does not lie on the button.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

Stellar,

First, I believe we agree that lead betting the flop is good. The interesting question is whether to 3-bet and/or lead the turn.

Now, a tight player has capped pf and then raised our flop bet. This is consistent with him having a top hand (AA-QQ) as well as AK. It is also possible he has 99. Even though he's tight, we know that tight players can show aggression with these types of hands. And the truth is, on this flop, it would make sense for him to raise the flop. MP player is a problem because he's loose and could have anything, including 2 overcards.

I agree that our equity doesn't look great after the utg player raises the flop. But since the pot is big and he would still raise the flop with a few hands that we beat, the main issue to me at this stage is how to get the best information, hopefully at the least cost.

If we just call the flop raise, we might be able to fold if it comes back to us for 2 bets. But here, MP is LP, and likely won't be doing any raising. And UTG is very likely to bet, even with just AK. So I don't feel our info is that good now.

If we 3-bet the flop and it gets capped, we probably need to see the turn, but I'll feel very comfortable knowing I'm behind then, as I doubt UTG will cap without being ahead. Or, if he just calls the 3-bet and then raises our turn, I'll also feel that I have reliable info.

I disagree that there is any worry here that bet/fold will leave us in the dangerous situation of folding the best hand, given the above.

One other possible benefit of 3-betting the flop is that we might convince the MP player to fold.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

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But here, MP is LP, and likely won't be doing any raising.

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Totally disagree. The MP hands we fear are Tx and 88. Typical LP players slowplay those hands on the flop and then put in a dramatic turn raise. Coldcalling the flop is a clear warning that this may be coming. Not necessarily of course, but tens are common cards and we should be aware of the danger.

Note that my understanding of OP is that MP is a fairly normal LP and not some 80/2/0.1 pathological calling station.

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I disagree that there is any worry here that bet/fold will leave us in the dangerous situation of folding the best hand, given the above.

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Assume it goes 3-bet flop, all call, bet turn. There are two ways you might get talked off the best hand:

1. UTG has something like JJ/99 and raises. The idea behind this play is to drive out the third player while securing a free showdown for the pair. He probably intends to fold to a 3-bet and reasons that this is no worse than calling down. You might think this is a poor play and I might agree with you but that really isn't the point. People do this once in a while.

2. The general read on MP is a little off or he has a loose wiring moment as bad players so often do. He sees that he can represent trips and takes it into his head to make a free showdown raise from the button with 8x or a small pocket pair.

Even if such plays are quite rare they still make a big difference because the pot is so large.

But the biggest problem as I said before is paying to see the river and then not seeing the river. It's almost worth calling a raise just to take a card. That means nearly an entire BB of EV disappears when you are forced to fold your outs.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

Stellar, you make some interesting points (as usual). Yet, it still seems to me that your approach (i.e., just calling the flop raise rather than 3-bet and lead the turn) is based on a few possibilities that are not especially likely.

Specifically:

(1) the chance that MP is slow-playing with a 10 or 88 in his hand;
(2) the chance that UTG will raise the turn with a worse hand, and make us fold incorrectly;
(3) the chance that MP will shed his loose/passive skin (and remember, OP said her was mostly passive both pre and post-flop) and try to represent trips on the turn.

Yes, one of these situations might occur, but I think it is more likely that they won't.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

Turn play: Check/fold is probably OK. UTG either has quad tens, an overpair to yours or AK and just made his pair. He could also have JJ for a split but that is unlikely.

If you want, check and call him down and see which of the above he has.

Re: Making him fold a better hand
 

Check/fold turn and move on to next hand. There's quite a few more capping hands that holds an A as opposed to the ones that doesn't. Also we won't succeed making UTG fold KK or QQ every time, Id say it's more like 1/3 of the time.

I really think it's -EV to put anymore bets in on turn.

Re: Results
 

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So I check the turn, UTG bets, MP folds, I check-raise, UTG 3-bets and I fold.

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Sometimes UTG is going to have AA here and is certainly not going to fold, I think AK is hardly ever going to fold. So how often will KK and QQ fold? I'm not sure.

But you have to figure he might have KK or QQ only 1/4 to 1/2 (my guesstimate) of the time and the other times he has AA or AK. So about half the time off the bat this doesn't work. Will it work the other half of the time enough to make it worth it? I don't know. I don't think so, though.