QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button folds.

River: (15.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

You can bet or check this, IMO. Whle you lose some value when you are checkraised on the turn you gain a good portion back when you checkraise a made flush or an 8 on the river (I'm not sure I checkraise a K).

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Not sure about the turn bet. We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point, so I don't this this bet has value anymore, unless all 3 players call. I'd imagine one player will fold here often, so I would just c/c and hope it gets checked through by CO in fear of being c/r'd again.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.


LLL

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.

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The 3-bet is for value. We have an equity edge against 3+ opponents given the flush and (nut) gutshot draws.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Why are you 3-betting the flop? You are not ahead here and the pot is already pumped up for your draw. Unless you 3 bet hoping that you can check a brick on the turn and have everone else check through (which i don't find likely) then I just like a call on the flop.

Turn: C/C. You are not ahead and getting raised here is no good. You have the FD and OESD, but you are still on a draw and you are not cleaning up outs by betting.

River: c/f

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Well played. I think I would of played it the same.

Pre-flop - fine, three bet may thin the field too much and you're OPP.

Flop - your equity is strong probably close to 12 outs (gut shot &amp; flush draw), which will come in over 40% of the time. Betting out is great b/c you trap the field for two or three bets, assuming CO raises. I think a check raise would be better if the ace were an 8, but since I give little value to the Q or J betting out is correct.

Turn - You pick up an open-ended draw and a flush draw. Your equity is still around 33%, so I bet out again.

River - well damn it didn't come through. I think a bluff won't show much profit, so check-fold and wait for the next time.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.

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The 3-bet is for value. We have an equity edge against 3+ opponents given the flush and (nut) gutshot draws.

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We do have an equity edge but we also stand to knock people out on the 3 bet as well and thus lose bets on the turn.

I think the 3bet is close, but I only like if everyone is going to stay along for the ride. I think you fold people out facing 2 cold too often here, in which case we lose equity.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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Not sure about the turn bet. We only make our hand ~27% of the time on the river at this point, so I don't this this bet has value anymore. I would just c/c and hope it gets checked through by CO in fear of being c/r'd again.

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What about the OESD that we just picked up? Shouldn't we have about 15 outs then, making us roughly 33%?

I still check in these spots, which is something that concerns me onbly becauese of how transparent my hand is. Against a good player he'll see us pushing on flop and when we slow down on the turn our hand will be obvious once we check. However, getting all that equity is profitable and if we check odds dictate our call. We might not get paid off on the river, but if we build a big enough pot, a good player would have to call w/ any kind of hand, no?

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Turn is a check/call.

River is a check/fold.

It's either call or raise (3-bet) on the flop. Both arguments make sense, so I can't make up my mind.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Both players to act after the 3-bet have already invest one bet. I think this psychologically ties a lot players to seeing the turn. Reads would definitely make a difference here for me. If they were tight-asses I would just call and tie them to the turn, if they were loose fish, I have no hesitation in 3-betting it.

Even so, we only need the pot to be 3-way to have equity on our bets.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.

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The 3-bet is for value. We have an equity edge against 3+ opponents given the flush and (nut) gutshot draws.

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We do have an equity edge but we also stand to knock people out on the 3 bet as well and thus lose bets on the turn.

I think the 3bet is close, but I only like if everyone is going to stay along for the ride. I think you fold people out facing 2 cold too often here, in which case we lose equity.

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Hero's equity is around 45% five people have put money in on the flop. One of those players raised and one cold called two. I don't think the flop 3-bet is anywhere near close even if a player or two folds.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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What about the OESD that we just picked up? Shouldn't we have about 15 outs then, making us roughly 33%?

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Yes, I was thinking OESD/FD but 13 outs popped into my head for some reason, rather than 15. Thanks, post fixed.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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Even so, we only need the pot to be 3-way to have equity on our bets.

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This is the crux of the matter. This pot is going to be at least three way to the turn, so the hero is getting value on his flop bets. I think he should go ahead and cap it if the opportunity arises.

I don't think he has any fold equity on the turn, so on the turn, I think he can check. Although this makes it transparent that he has a draw, it doesn't tell the extent of his draw, and if he makes a straight, instead of the flush, I think he can still checkraise the river.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

It's probably a fairly meaningless bet. You get called in two spots, you break pretty even. In three spots, you gain 1/3 of a BB or so, which is nice, but I suppose sometimes two guys fold or you get raised, which sucks. I guess it depends on how often each of things happen, but I suspect it works out to break fairly even from an EV standpoint, at least readless.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

Hi TKO,

The flop 3-bet is mandatory. Well-played.

However, betting the turn here is pretty much throwing away money.

Happy holidays,
einbert

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point

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How do you calculate this? Is this number of outs vs. what we have left in the deck?

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point

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How do you calculate this? Is this number of outs vs. what we have left in the deck?

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46 cards left, so our odds are 15:(46-15) = 15:31, which is rougly 1:2 or 33%.

A quicker method for a rough calculation is to take the number of outs and multiply by 4 on the flop or 2 on the turn. So 15x2 = 30%. This undershoots it a bit, so it's reasonable to use for "value" calculations.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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The flop 3-bet is mandatory. Well-played.

However, betting the turn here is pretty much throwing away money.

Happy holidays,
einbert

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Thanks; you too.

I decided to 3-bet the flop against this particular lineup as they had already put in money and were very loose players. Had the button not called the CO's raises, I probably would have just called. I think the flop is a close decision either way.

As for the turn, I would have check/called had the 9 stayed in the deck; however, the fact that I picked up 4 more outs changed my plan, and made me doubt the best play. I figured the pot was so large already that opponents would be calling with anything. I still think the turn is the most questionable street.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

With all 12 outs being live, you have ~45% equity. This means you almost break even HU. Three-handed the edge is clear. So the flop bet definitely has value.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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46 cards left, so our odds are 15:(46-15) = 15:31, which is rougly 1:2 or 33%.

A quicker method for a rough calculation is to take the number of outs and multiply by 4 on the flop or 2 on the turn. So 15x2 = 30%. This undershoots it a bit, so it's reasonable to use for "value" calculations

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Thanks. This makes sense.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

I was talking about the turn. I assumed the pumping a 12-outer on the flop was mandatory.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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A quicker method for a rough calculation is to memorize these numbers

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FYP.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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A quicker method for a rough calculation is to memorize these numbers

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FYP.

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Why? Different people have different skill sets. I pretty much auto-pilot these calculations now, but I certainly didn't get there by memorizing a table. For someone to "memorize" this means they're sitting there with a chart and not thinking about what those numbers actually mean.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

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Why? Different people have different skill sets. I pretty much auto-pilot these calculations now, but I certainly didn't get there by memorizing a table. For someone to "memorize" this means they're sitting there with a chart and not thinking about what those numbers actually mean.

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Fair enough. Maybe I was a bit hasty to suggest memorization. Personally, I have a little cheat-sheet I carry with me and look at whenever I can (ie in between hands when playing live, and during hands when playing online). This helps me get familiar with the numbers.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

A wise man once said:

Give a man a chart, and he can extract off fish until he loses the chart.

Teach a man to calculate the chart, and he can extract off fish for a lifetime.

Re: QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.
 

[ QUOTE ]
A wise man once said:

Give a man a chart, and he can extract off fish until he loses the chart.

Teach a man to calculate the chart, and he can extract off fish for a lifetime.

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This reminds me of one of my favorite poker proverbs from twoplustwo poster "TheDrizzle" (note I am not trying to be mean to anybody or make a sarcastic jab, just adding something I think is funny to the thread.)

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Remember the poker proverb:
Give a man a hard and fast chart on how to play hold'em and he plays for a day.
Teach a man how to think about hold'em and......he grows bored because this is not a fast enough way to make money.

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Happy holidays,
einbert