AA
 

40/80 at the Borgata. MP, a young woman I've played a fair amount with openraises in the CO. This game is much bigger than her normal game (10/20) so she is either staked, newly rich, or found a sugar daddy. She a little too passive and too loose, nothing out of the ordinary. Button coldcalls, SB folds, I squeeze red AA in the BB and 3-bet, she 4-bets, Button calls, I call.

3 players, 12.5 SBs. Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet, she raises, button folds, I 3-bet, she 4-bets, I 5-bet, she calls.

HU for 11.25 BBs. Turn is the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet, she calls.

River is the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bet, she raises, I fold.

Re: AA
 

Looks like a fold to me. I would check call the river though.

Re: AA
 

4-bet cap or 5? why not 5-bet preflop and could that have impacted her play?

What is her 4-bet range? Your description makes me think AK,JJ+.

I can only assume you are putting her squarely on KK on the river. Pot is pretty big. Could it be the other AA? Could she have KQs?(I don't think so).

I think the river fold is okay.

Krishan

Re: AA
 

Generally I think "metagame considerations" are overrated, but in this case I think they are an important factor in this river decision. For that reason I think you should check/call the river. When she 4 bets preflop and 5 bets the flop, AK is looking really unlikely. Check/fold might be the "perfect play" but with the huge pot and the metagame I already mentioned I think paying one bet to see her cards is the best compromise.

-DeathDonkey

Re: AA
 

It seems like you needed her raise on the river to tell you you were beat. Isn't it obvious? the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is the worst card for you. When she just calls the turn she has exactly AA, KK, or 10-10 what....95-99% of the time?

IF you are going to bet-fold you are better off check-calling because the only hand she checks behind is the other AA but there may be a sliver of a chance she raises with it since if you check there that always signals "I think I'm beat but I'm calling". Or a sliver of a chance she has 95o.

I contemplated check-fold in theory (though I'm not strong enough to lay down AA hu at the table)....but I don't think you can check-fold here because a river check may confuse her into thinking you had AQ and she may then value bet AA.

Re: AA
 

Is there any value in a river bet?

Re: AA
 

The river is either C/C or C/F imo.

- Jim

Re: AA
 

What range of hands did you put her on before you bet the river? I mean, it looks like she has AA or KK to me...

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]

4-bet cap or 5? why not 5-bet preflop and could that have impacted her play?

[/ QUOTE ]

4 bet cap, no cap HU.

Re: AA
 

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She a little too passive and too loose, nothing out of the ordinary.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you putting her on when she 4 bets this flop after she 4 bets preflop that you think a river bet is the move? She's not putting you on a flush. I don't think she'd do this with JJ. She certainly didn't just go that far with the other AA to fold for 1 bet on the river.

b

A read on me
 

Yeah, forgot this. She's Russian. I'm Asian. She thinks I'm crazy.

Re: A read on me
 

Does she think you're crazy becuase you're Asian or because you're a maniac?

Re: AA
 

You've played with her alot so I guess you have the confidence necessary to make this laydown. What did you put her on after the flop? Why did you think your river bet would likely not be raised? I play this a little more conservatively, but I also don't know your opponenet.

Re: A read on me
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does she think you're crazy becuase you're Asian or because you're a maniac?

[/ QUOTE ]

A little from column A, a little from column B.

Re: AA
 

I think that is perfect, even if she thinks you are crazy.

If you are going to put a bet in on the river, I think betting and folding is superior to check-calling especially against a passive player and a board like that. If she is bluffing or raising a pair of aces on that river, she deserves that pot.

I think checking and calling is like flushing 80 dollars down the toilet. Betting and folding is like flushing less than 80 dollars down the toilet.

I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that is perfect, even if she thinks you are crazy.

If you are going to put a bet in on the river, I think betting and folding is superior to check-calling especially against a passive player and a board like that. If she is bluffing or raising a pair of aces on that river, she deserves that pot.

I think checking and calling is like flushing 80 dollars down the toilet. Betting and folding is like flushing less than 80 dollars down the toilet.

I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands can she have on the river that Dave can value bet with, especially when she's passive and 4-bet preflop and 5-bet the flop? If a bet is going in it's a check-call because then I can consider at least some chance of her having AA -- given her lack of a turn raise it's 3:1 in favor of KK, but I only need her to be betting AA one in 8.5 times for a check-call to be the best play. I don't think I'm ahead close to 55% of the time that I bet and am called by a notably passive player on this river, even when I'm a crazy asian with a tie wrapped around my head -- but I do think she'll bet AA when checked to, because in general, that's what people do.

So I really don't see a check-call as throwing money away at all. Actually I think a bet-call might be worse here but someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

rob

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

Re: AA
 

Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being more of an underdog doesn't matter in this case given the pot size. If she never bets AA it's a check-fold. But if she bets AA 50% of the time it's a check-call (earns .75BB if we're wondering if she has AA or KK), which is better than a bet, which loses 1BB the vast majority of the time here. If she bets AA 40% of the time she has AA (even accounting for only one combo of AA) we break even on our 1BB investment. In order for our river bet to be breakeven she will have to have JJ or AK some portion of the time, given how often we will be bet-folding or bet-chopping. Given how this hand has played out, especially preflop and on the flop, that doesn't seem nearly likely enough for a bet to have more EV than a check-call.

IMO the decision is somewhere between check-calling and check-folding, but betting seems particularly spewy.

Rob

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK.

Rob

Re: AA
 

I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from and what assumptions you are making.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from and what assumptions you are making.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 ways for KK, 1 way for AA. Dave is now telling me that my range is too narrow but I was going off of a "too passive" read which, to me, even in hyperlag games would mean no AQ preflop/flop and no JJ flop. So I weighted those, check-calling earns 7.5BB against AA as a chop, and figured how many times she'd have to bet AA (40%) that she has it. 40% x 1 x 7.5 = 3, which is the same as the 3 ways she can have KK and bet them on the river. Either way given the description and that scenario I didn't like a river bet, since it's going to take a lot for a river bet to approach 0EV given the assumptions made.

If the assumptions made are wrong, I was going off of the read provided and trying to extrapolate from there. I'm headed to the gym but will post more later if necessary.

Rob

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll do the math while I'm cycling, but I know that adding AQs still makes it a check-call rather than a bet-fold. AQo might switch it up a bit more.

Rob

Re: AA
 

I agree with Dave, AA or KK is too narrow. There are a few other hands she could have. It is difficult for me to explain why I feel this way, but the combination of factors, (her position and image, Dave's position and image, the flop action, the turn action, and the board) leads me to believe there are a few worse hands she will call with but never bet (very few, e.g. AQ, AK). There are also a lot of better hands that she will not raise with and she will also probably not raise with AA.

If she is not going to raise AA, then Dave's EV when she has AA is the same whether he bets or checks (Well, technically it is higher when he bets, but lets ignore that). Whens she doesn't have AA then Dave's EV is approximately -$80 when he calls a bet. When he bets there are a few hands she will call with that she won't bet (although very few). If she will raise AA in this spot then my analysis sucks.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet/folding the river for one more bet in a huge pot? At a 40/80 game where people will take notice. Any plan that has us putting in all that action and not seeing a showdown is bound to raise some eyebrows.

-DeathDonkey

Re: A read on me
 

isn't russia in asia?

Re: A read on me
 

Part of it is.

What up Ural mountains!

Re: AA
 

I've thought about this for a while and I really don't agree with your guy's reads. I don't think she has AQ here often enough for a bet to show any profit, but if you guys do, bet-fold away.

Rob

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

The goal posts are shifting. This passive person playing higher than usual 4 bets preflop and 4 bets the flop with AQ? Can she have KQ? Once the river hits you can rule out AsKs, so that's not relevant. Anyway, I guess you've answered the question what you put her on before betting the river: AA, KK, or AQ...

But one more question: Since you know that she will never raise a worse hand, and will call or check with some hands that you beat, why do you post this hand which you played so perfectly?

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Dave, AA or KK is too narrow. There are a few other hands she could have. It is difficult for me to explain why I feel this way, but the combination of factors, (her position and image, Dave's position and image, the flop action, the turn action, and the board) leads me to believe there are a few worse hands she will call with but never bet (very few, e.g. AQ, AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. If you fully ignore the player profile and the preflop/flop action, sure. There just aren't that 'few more worse hands' she'd play that way all the way through, imo.

AK? only spades.
AQ? Not preflop.

What other hands do you really think she'd play this way? It looks alot like KK.

Easy check and call if you're planning on putting another bet in. Unless you can think of something she might actually fold here for a single bet. I can't.

b

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
She would play AQ the same against me,

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see too many passive players playing AQ that way preflop.

b

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

Passive players generally aren't that aggressive with steals either.

b

Re: AA
 

He never said she was passive. He said she was a little too passive. Maybe he should explain what that means. To me it means she plays aggressively, but misses a lot of bets.

Re: AA
 

Given that there's $1,320 in the pot, that she thinks she's playing against a crazy person, and that the others would see a fold in an ubermegapot for one more bet on the river, I'd have called.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
He never said she was passive. He said she was a little too passive. Maybe he should explain what that means. To me it means she plays aggressively, but misses a lot of bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you are getting at, and yet I think you are contorting the language here. Aggressivity is a continuum, where "too passive" indicates a tendency in one direction, which is imperfectly, but fairly, abbreviated as "passive" -- beyond that, I agree the original speaker has to say. Note that you are arguing on a different front than the OP, whose opinion is not that she isn't passive, but that her behaviour in the hand with AQ isn't particularly aggressive.

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
She would play AQ the same against me,

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see too many passive players playing AQ that way preflop.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

too passive <> passive

Re: AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given that there's $1,320 in the pot, that she thinks she's playing against a crazy person, and that the others would see a fold in an ubermegapot for one more bet on the river, I'd have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andy, certainly you must have a number of players you see again and again where you know they aren't raising the river without a hand that beats Aces, regardless of how crazy/dumb/aggressive their opponent is.