Call with garbage?
 

Large MTT. Just gotten into the money but with about 200 left, the money available now is meaningless. With T6530 I have about half the avg stack and now have to post the BB which is T1000

UTG goes all in for T6760
UTG+1 goes all in for T7086
UTG+2 goes all in for T5290
Folded to me and I have T5530 left and 94o

I have to throw in another T500 next hand as the SB. There are stacks of T45k, T20k, T17k & T14k at the table plus the stack that wins this hand. I won't be scaring anyone much with an all in next round or 2.

These 3 all-ins figure to have big cards but I'm going to need huge help to win. Should I do it anyhow or wait?

Re: Call with garbage?
 

wow, easiest fold in history? but what if you had JTs hmmmmm. It's an easy fold because your under 25% to win the hand and you put 25% of the money in. Get it? You need to have a slightly better hand than the average hand (in this hand) to win money. The dead money doesnt make up for it. Your goal is to get in a headsup pot so you have the best chance of staying alive.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

Turbomuck, then push a lot of hands from LP.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's an easy fold because your under 25% to win the hand and you put 25% of the money in. Get it?

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is standard advice here I guess this is a forum to avoid. There are other factors to consider. What if I only had enough left to post the SB. Still fold? I'm still under 25%. Get it?

If I had 56s I call in a heartbeat even if I knew what the other 3 guys had (and they had AA, QQ & KK respectively) This is a great spot to get some chips. And if I'm gone, so what? I'm likely gone shortly anyhow.

fwiw I did fold the 94o, pushed a cpl times from late positions and stole some blinds but ultimately went bust a cpl. rounds later.

I think there are several hands to call with here, I was just wondering if anyone thought something as bad as 94 was worth it given the tournament situation.

Evidentally situations mean nothing here. You just want your equity.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

hey sir. 56s is a LOT better in this spot than 94off. and what i said about the 25% is perfectly valid here, even though its not 25% exactly. You need a higher winning % to the % of chips you put in the pot, pretty basic concept. Sorry 25% is likely off by a lot but i do not feel like coming up with exact figures since i KNOW its not a good play.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

I agree with the logic, your cards are likely live, but think about this: if you hit two pair or trips you also have to dodge 6 A, K, and Q by the river. You have zero chance for a flush and straights will all be four-carders. Give me suited connectors and I would consider, but you can find a better spot than this.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

I don't think you get it. Fyodor.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's an easy fold because your under 25% to win the hand and you put 25% of the money in. Get it?

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is standard advice here I guess this is a forum to avoid. There are other factors to consider. What if I only had enough left to post the SB. Still fold? I'm still under 25%. Get it?

If I had 56s I call in a heartbeat even if I knew what the other 3 guys had (and they had AA, QQ & KK respectively) This is a great spot to get some chips. And if I'm gone, so what? I'm likely gone shortly anyhow.

fwiw I did fold the 94o, pushed a cpl times from late positions and stole some blinds but ultimately went bust a cpl. rounds later.

I think there are several hands to call with here, I was just wondering if anyone thought something as bad as 94 was worth it given the tournament situation.

Evidentally situations mean nothing here. You just want your equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.7101 % 56.62% 00.09% { AA }
Hand 2: 17.9245 % 17.84% 00.09% { KK }
Hand 3: 15.0285 % 14.94% 00.09% { QQ }
Hand 4: 10.3370 % 10.25% 00.09% { 94o }


---

You did not want to be in this hand. Even if someone had AK or AQ, you wouldn't be much better off. Obviously if you only had the SB left you would call. Then again, if you only had the SB you'd be putting in 8.3% of the chips (500/(1500+1500+1500+500+1000) x 100%), not 20% or so. Also, if you only had 500 chips, you couldn't do anything else. You would have no fold equity.

BTW, 76s in this situation is 20% to win, better than KK or QQ, and twice as likely as 94o. That's a completely different hand. Don't say that situations mean nothing here. It's simply that we analyzed this situation and didn't think that it was a good one (and the math backs us up); we weren't talking about having half of a BB or holding SCs. With 5x the BB, this hand is not a do or die situation.

Will

Re: Call with garbage?
 

This isn't even reasonably close to a call. I don't even think I'd call w/ 5-6s.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

I turbo muck. i want a hand that can play well multiway to call. and with 4.5xBB you still have a full orbit to catch something decent. sure you're getting great odds on this hand but you also have to beat lots more people.

Playing around in two dimes, I also have trouble coming up with scenarios where you are EV positive even with the blind overlay

-g

Re: Call with garbage?
 

Thank you for taking the time to post such an extensive reply. I hadn't run the numbers myself and actually thought 94o was a bigger dog than that.

Again I was not advocating calling with 94o in that spot when I replied to mts. I did fold it.

What upset me about his reply was the black and white mentality that if you don't have an immediate equity edge the hand should be turbo mucked. Given your numbers it is apparent, according to mts's advice, that I should muck every concievable hand I could be dealt except the other AA.

I am already in Harrington's "red zone". After posting SB next hand I have 3.3 times the blinds. There is no monetary incentive to stick around for a few more hands. Pretty much everyone at the table is going to have me more than adequately covered. I laid out all this info not just to make my original post as long as possible.

Maybe more people need to read Harrington's chapter from Vol. 1 titled "What is a Hand?"

My opinion on this situation is that any hand with 20% is an autocall and anything with 15% should be given serious consideration. 64o is 15%. I am pretty certain I would have called with a one gapper without even knowing the numbers.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ah 566242 52.14 516544 47.56 3222 0.30 0.522
Ks Kc 186906 17.21 895880 82.49 3222 0.30 0.173
Qc Qd 162997 15.01 919789 84.69 3222 0.30 0.151
4d 6h 166641 15.34 916145 84.36 3222 0.30 0.154

94o at 10% is at least worth thinking about getting 3.6:1 and an opportunity to go from red zone to yellow zone. Dismissing all hands except AA is downright stupid.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

You are being overly sensitive and defensive. mts is not advocating mucking everything besides AA. I believe he is advocating calling with hands where you have at least a 1 in
4 chance of winning. You have too many chips to dump them in trying to quadruple up with a rag.

Bruce

Re: Call with garbage?
 

[ QUOTE ]
mts is not advocating mucking everything besides AA. I believe he is advocating calling with hands where you have at least a 1 in
4 chance of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands would those be?

I guess I shouldn't have given my hand in the op. I should have just asked what hands anyone would call with here. Does anyone have any?

Re: Call with garbage?
 

Definitely fold. Go all in from late position when there's no raise before you, hopefully with A, K or two face cards. Calling now makes no sense I think because its an almost certain death with 94o.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

I'm not trying to be an ass when i say this but you should really be beyond this. You need to understand simple math. You need to put in ~22% of the pot when you go allin. Come up with hand ranges for the other 3 players and run some hands across those ranges. when you find a hand that is greater than 22%, you should call. A rough guess would be AA, KK, QQ, AK as the only hands without knowing your opponents.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

[ QUOTE ]
94o at 10% is at least worth thinking about getting 3.6:1 and an opportunity to go from red zone to yellow zone.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes no sense.

10%= 9-1.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

You don't need 22%; you're desperate enough and the pot is big enough to go with a -cEV call. For example, here I would at least think about calling with most suited connectors, although you're only around 16-18% with those.

94o is nowhere near there, however.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

so you would call with any pocket pair too?

I'm much more comfortable pushing from late position with fold equity. If called your at worst 20% but most likely very much better. I cannot say that 40% against 1 opponent to double up is better than 20% against 3 to triple up, though, the added variable of FE does make it better.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not trying to be an ass when i say this but you should really be beyond this. You need to understand simple math. You need to put in ~22% of the pot when you go allin. Come up with hand ranges for the other 3 players and run some hands across those ranges. when you find a hand that is greater than 22%, you should call. A rough guess would be AA, KK, QQ, AK as the only hands without knowing your opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you’re folding TT, JTs and 89s here, then?

--greg

Re: Call with garbage?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
94o at 10% is at least worth thinking about getting 3.6:1 and an opportunity to go from red zone to yellow zone.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes no sense.

10%= 9-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

First I would like to apologize to everyone for my attitude. I'm sorry I'm coming off like a dick here. It's probably because I have been posting like one.

Still, I think there is way more to the math here than you people are admitting to. I understand that in most situations if I am putting in 22% of the money I should want to have at least a 22% chance of winning the pot. I understand that getting 3.6:1 as a 9:1 dog is not normally a good idea.

What I have been attempting to get at is that if I fold I have T5530 left and have to post another T500 next hand. This is less than half the avg stack and only enough for 3 more rounds. What are my chances of making any significant amount of money in this tournament with a stack this small? I don't think it's great. I think I will be gone shortly the vast majority of the time. Call that Situation A.

If I call (and again I did NOT think 94o was worth calling here) and win I have T25,380 which is about dbl the avg stack and even after posting the sb next hand still leaves me with 16.6 rounds worth of blinds. This gives me a way better shot at real money. Call that Situation B.

I'm saying forget about what the actual amount of money in the pot is compared to what I have to put in. What kind of odds do you want to take a shot at Situation B?

Sit. A = alive but likely broke soon
Sit. B = broke now or a x% chance of getting ahold of a decent stack.

I think 20% is a no brainer, 15% is enough for me and 10% (ie 94o) is not that far wrong. Everyone else seems to think a 20% chance is not enough.

I find it hard to believe everyone else is so much more conservative in style than me. I never thought of myself as a wildman.

*** any attitude in this particular post is NOT intended. ***

Re: Call with garbage?
 

Yes you will have a fighing chance if you quadruple up, but the problem is it happens so rarely that it doesn't make up for the times that you bust, or that you would have gone on a rush and quadded up anyway if you folded.

Re: Call with garbage?
 

in the exact situation described in the OP. yes. if theres antes, maybe not, depending on ante size.