Devastating 30 BB hand
 

I just sit down to get in some 3 tabling at 2/4... within 5 minutes I'm suddenly in three massive pots with mediocre holdings. The result on this is unbelievable... I don't claim to have played it remotely decently but here it is...

I had just sat down and have no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, 1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, CO 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

I still feel like I can win because there's absolutely nothing scary about the board, only a set really has me drawing dead. The pot is just too big to give up and watch an out fall.

River: (26.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets</font>, Hero folds...

two questions: a) considering how I played the rest of this hand, is this fold bad? b) was I spewing earlier in the hand ?

Final Pot: 29.50 BB

between the three tables I lost 150 in 10 minutes... certainly a wake up call from the run of good luck I've been having

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Just fold

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

I am getting 14-1 or better every time it comes to me... among those 6 aces and queens, you don't think I have a 50% chance to win if I hit one?

people could be betting like that with: an overpair, top pair with an higher kicker, flush draw w/overcards, straight/flush draw... dunno I just felt like it was a big enough pot that I had to stay in

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Fold the flop. You have less than 3 outs between your overcards, because an A or Q of [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could give someone else a flush.

EDIT: Not to mention the more remote chance of a straight with any A.

EDIT 2: And, you have people behind you, so your odds are effectively going down with the chance of a raise after you.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Raising this turn is an absolute disaster.

You may have like 2-3 outs here or something. Calling the turn is hardly automatic. I think the turn is much, much closer to a fold than it is to a raise. Raising basically accomplishes nothing, as the pot is really big and it's unlikely you'll clean up outs by folding a reverse-dominating hand, and you're equity just isn't high enough to justify such aggressive tactical moves anyway.

I'm not sure what I think about the flop yet. It does seem too early to fold, and relative position sucks, and I generally don't like calling a bet on my immediate right with a ton of players left to act behind me. The presence of the spades (and no spades in our hand), the likelihood that in a 7 player pot we're reverse-dominated, and the possibility of a raise behind us (overpairs, set, flush draws are all possible raising hands behind us) means we're really in a terrible position. So it's not like we have 6 outs in a 14 bet pot putting in one bet. It's more like we have 3 effective outs having to pay on average more than one bet or something.

Oh, yeah, and even when we hit there are tons of redraws. And often we'll hit and lose.

So, fold the flop. Barring that, I guess raising the flop is next best. Given the way it was played, raise the turn.

So you put in nearly 5 BB here that you shouldn't have. I think your effective "Sklansky bucks" lose here may be somewhere in neighborhood of 2-2.5 BB total.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

alright... I can see that. when i folded I was so sure I totally goofed the turn by raising... then the river action came

CO calls, shows AJo, BB shows 92s and AJo takes $120

my hand was good the whole time! I know you shouldn't think about results, but this seems like the one situation where it should give you pause... folding a winning hand for one bet on the river in a huge pot is the most costly mistake in poker.

Still, with a little perspective I agree that the turn raise was incorrect...

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given the way it was played, fold the turn.



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Fixed your post.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

with that many people in the pot you have to assume your up against a flush draw and have 4 outs. Of those 4 outs you can be up against hands that have already have a pair and a kicker with your hand. Hell, your aces are probably in other peoples hands, assuming this game is that loose people don't fold aces preflop therefore the ones that pair the board will screw you when you turn an ace and they have two pair. So between your 4 non flush cards I'd say you have two clean outs between the queens and aces. 14:1 on 2 outs isn't worth it especially since people will hit there flush on the river and redraw out on you.

Your line.... ok, so you thought the pot was big enough and were trying to isolate yourself w/ the initial bettor hoping to spike top pair etc... Thats the second best play imo, i think folding is better. Now after like 3 people cold call you, you have to know theres a flush draw out there. Therefore, I don't like raising the turn because you won't get the draws to fold and are just asking them to call the river with any pair since the pot is soo big. Now that you know you have flush draws present on the turn you can safely assume you have 4 outs MAX, but I wouldn't treat it like 4 outs because of what I typed earlier. Therefore you need like 20:1 on the turn and your just not getting that so you should probably fold here as well.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given the way it was played, fold the turn.



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Fixed your post.

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Thank you. That was a typo. I am obviously advocating folding the turn.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Let's backtrack through your decisions.

At first glance over the action, I was surprised to see you fold the river. Are you really losing 96.5% of the time here?

Back to the turn. I think you can find a fold to the 3-bet from the CO. Further, I think you can fold the turn for the first bet. I don't think you have more than 3 outs, if even that many, and you will lose more money if the bad outs hit on the river, just because the pot is already so huge.

You have to call that 3-bet on the flop. I don't think you should be raising, though. I really hate raising without a spade in that spot. I get the feeling you raised because you felt you couldn't fold...

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Before I say anything, I just have to say people who play AQ/AK like you did this hand are the fish that 2+2 players thrive on. I'm not trying to condescend you, I'm just trying to give you the harsh truth. With that being said, fold the flop. Fold the turn. Good fold on the river.

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I am getting 14-1 or better every time it comes to me... among those 6 aces and queens, you don't think I have a 50% chance to win if I hit one?

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You are getting 14-1, this is true. There are three aces and three queens in the deck. Two of them are spades, so they might give another player a flush. Also, an A or Q could give two pair to someone who has A8 or QT. Furthermore, just because you raised preflop UTG does not mean someone cannot have flopped a set, which has you drawing dead.

Raising and being this aggressive with AQ/AK in a 7 player pot is asking for disaster. You were definetely spewing. Fold the flop.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Why on earth are you still in this pot on the river? Even being in it on the turn is up for debate.

And btw, raising a flop donk to isolate when 7 people saw the flop works approximately never.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

points well taken! this all fits with my gut reaction after I folded ("what the hell am I doing here"), but finding out MHWHBG just sent me spinning.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

I love these posts because I can learn from mall of your replies. whn I read this, I told myself that I most-likely would have folded after the flop, since I had only the two over cards. If I had better position, I would have called a one-bet, but that would have been the max. The turn would have definitely been a fold. Once I got to the river (which I can't see myself doing) I would have called a one-bet simply because of the pot odds associated. I'm new, so if anyone see's flaws herte, please let me know.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

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At first glance over the action, I was surprised to see you fold the river. Are you really losing 96.5% of the time here?

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With 2 other players calling the river, yes he is losing 100% of the time here.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
River: (26.50 BB) 8 (4 players)
BB bets, Hero folds...

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Where did the SB go? He vanished after calling the turn.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Your turn raise is terrible and you should be leaning towards a fold with no clean outs.

I'd much rather have a gutshot here than two overs.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Devastating your brain with my play in a 30 BB hand

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fyp

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

How can one raise the turn with A high??? This is spewing.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

I love this play. Here, come sit by me. I made some room.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At first glance over the action, I was surprised to see you fold the river. Are you really losing 96.5% of the time here?

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With 2 other players calling the river, yes he is losing 100% of the time here.

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Doesn't the fact that he would have won mean that this rule now violates some fundamental law of math?

Just busting your chops. I would have been out on the turn.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

This is obviously a dream table. The only problem is that you didn't hit anything remotely close to a hand. Preflop riase is standard of course. After that... damn yr relative position is SO crappy that I have don't think laying down the flop is a huge error. I hate being the meat in a raise sandwich anytime (unless I have the nuts of course). Discount yr overcants to 3 or so outs and you are still barely getting the odds to call. Tack on the possibility of a raise behind you and I think you can fold. I think too many fishes will call behind you to make the raise on the flop right, and yr hand is too weak to wait till the turn to raise. I just lay down the flop I guess.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em...

http://www.oldies.com/i/boxart/large/9/090431930328.jpg

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
At first glance over the action, I was surprised to see you fold the river. Are you really losing 96.5% of the time here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, in this spot, I think it's more like 99.5%. Can't be results oriented and be swayed by the fact that OP's hand would have been good here.

Horrible bet by the BB thinking he could bluff out multiple opponents with the busted draw, and horrible call by the AJo that actually won the hand. Hero is actually the only one that played the river properly.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Before I say anything, I just have to say people who play AQ/AK like you did this hand are the fish that 2+2 players thrive on. I'm not trying to condescend you, I'm just trying to give you the harsh truth. With that being said, fold the flop. Fold the turn. Good fold on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
I am getting 14-1 or better every time it comes to me... among those 6 aces and queens, you don't think I have a 50% chance to win if I hit one?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are getting 14-1, this is true. There are three aces and three queens in the deck. Two of them are spades, so they might give another player a flush. Also, an A or Q could give two pair to someone who has A8 or QT. Furthermore, just because you raised preflop UTG does not mean someone cannot have flopped a set, which has you drawing dead.

Raising and being this aggressive with AQ/AK in a 7 player pot is asking for disaster. You were definetely spewing. Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
dude you are a nub. Lay off the smart ass comments

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
alright... I can see that. when i folded I was so sure I totally goofed the turn by raising... then the river action came

CO calls, shows AJo, BB shows 92s and AJo takes $120

my hand was good the whole time! I know you shouldn't think about results, but this seems like the one situation where it should give you pause... folding a winning hand for one bet on the river in a huge pot is the most costly mistake in poker.

Still, with a little perspective I agree that the turn raise was incorrect...

[/ QUOTE ]

When my gf started playing limit poker, the two biggest pieces of advice I gave her were:

A) Try not to call the turn unless you can call the river. Whatever you do, don't fold on the river. Especially heads-up.

B) Play tight/aggressive pre-flop.

The problem with your hand was that with three opponents, your hand is practically never good.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just sit down to get in some 3 tabling at 2/4... within 5 minutes I'm suddenly in three massive pots with mediocre holdings. The result on this is unbelievable... I don't claim to have played it remotely decently but here it is...

I had just sat down and have no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, 1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, CO 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

I still feel like I can win because there's absolutely nothing scary about the board, only a set really has me drawing dead. The pot is just too big to give up and watch an out fall.

River: (26.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets</font>, Hero folds...

two questions: a) considering how I played the rest of this hand, is this fold bad? b) was I spewing earlier in the hand ?

Final Pot: 29.50 BB

between the three tables I lost 150 in 10 minutes... certainly a wake up call from the run of good luck I've been having

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably the worst hand of poker I've ever seen.

Good raise preflop.

On the flop, I'm either calling, or folding. Seeing as you are getting 15-1 with dirty overs, I'm probably calling.

Turn:

you were bet and 3-bet on the flop, and lead into on the turn. You are probably drawing dead. Fold the turn.

It's only a 30BB pot because you kept raising with 0-2 outs.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
folding a winning hand for one bet on the river in a huge pot is the most costly mistake in poker.


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I don't agree.

Folding the winner here did not really cost you 30BB - more like 0.5BB.

The EV of calling, if you knew you had a 5% chance to win the hand (unlikely in this case) is (0.95 * -1.0) + (0.05 * 30) = 0.55BB.

In this hand, I think that you were likely to win this &lt;2% of the time.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

looks to me like the bb hit his set on the flop. why else would he bet out? you were dumping chips at that point imo.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Folding the winner here did not really cost you 30BB - more like 0.5BB.

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Isn't it more like calling with a loser costs you 1BB while folding a winner costs you 30BB?

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding the winner here did not really cost you 30BB - more like 0.5BB.

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Isn't it more like calling with a loser costs you 1BB while folding a winner costs you 30BB?

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No!

I think I'm going to make a longer post about this because it's an idea that a lot of people miss out on... Look for that.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

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Look forward to that.

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FYP [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Your posts are always extremely helpful.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Folding a winner only costs you 30BB if you would always win the pot by calling. In the actual hand, yes a bad call costs us 1BB and a bad fold costs us the pot. However, that is results-oriented thinking. We need to think of how often we are good when we call here in this type of situation (or better put, what the chances are of having the best hand). If that weren't so, you should always call in any pot bigger than 1BB if there is a chance your hand is best, since calling can only cost you 1BB but folding would cost you more. The % you are good is highly determinative of how big a mistake this is (along with the pot size).

Edit: I should say that if we are behind on an actual hand, that would be the result. I didnt't look/reread the hand in question before posting so I don't know if he won/lost. But even if you do lose this hand, folding is only a 30BB mistake if you would always be ahead. If the OP is considering folding, the odds are probably considerably lower.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

Hi MagicFlea,

I think your turn raise is pretty awful. I think you should try to think about what purpose it serves, and what the benefits and disadvantages to it are. I think if you try to come up with some ballpark hand ranges for SB and BB, not to mention the other players, that you will realize it is a losing play compared to calling by a pretty large margin (folding may be even better).

Good luck,
einbert

P.S. Don't call the river. If you folded the best hand then you need to make quite a few notes on these players, but regardless of the results of this hand calling is a pretty substantial loser compared to folding.

Re: Devastating 30 BB hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Look forward to that.

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FYP [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Your posts are always extremely helpful.

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OMG [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]!