($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I had no reads on the villain. What’s your play on the river?

PartyPoker - $25 NL Texas - 10 players (Converter: PGC)

Starting Balances:
Button: $26.1
<font color="red">Hero: $25.65</font>
BB: $72
UTG: $27.1
UTG+1: $6.99
MP1: $23.55
MP2: $25
MP3: $21.27
LP1: $27.8
CO: $24.15

Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PreFlop
MP2 posts BB
<font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>, <font color="blue">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="blue">LP1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">CO folds</font>, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>

(4 players) FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="green">Hero checks</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>, <font color="green">UTG checks</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>

(4 players) TURN: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($1)</font>, <font color="blue">BB folds</font>, <font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">MP2 folds</font>

(2 players) RIVER: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $3 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($2)</font>, <font color="red">UTG RAISES ($15)</font>
<font color="green">Hero ????</font>

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

instapush.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

hero pushes...expecting to see 2 pair or worse...I think an overset is unlikely and if he had Q10, then that sucks.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

Ugh, when I first saw this I thought fold. His range here is any set, 9J, and the nut str8. I want to discount KJ cuz he didnt bet the flop, and I think its unlikely he limps UTG with hands like 4j. So I think we can put him on, any set, q10, 9j. If that is his range fold is in order. I completley disagree this is insta push. I know this is 25nl, and you will see some bizarre crap here, and if he has done something like this before out of line, I call, but against an unknown, I just down think you are beating a hand range.

Edit: I think its most likely he has a slowplayed set or rivered str8, and very unlikely he has two pair.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I push. The hands that you lose to are 99, 44, QT, KK (if he is repulsive). So basically 3 hands. I credit this as a don't-call-me overbet and push (perhaps he has Ax clubs).

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I think there are only a few possibilities the UTG has that beats you...99,44,KK,QT,JJ. Unless, he is playing KK hoping for a re-raise You can eliminate KK. QT UTG is a low possibility. The only hand he makes this re-raise with that you beat is KJ or a Bluff. I am always warry of the the caller who wakes up on the river. If he has a KJ I think ha would have bet earlier than the river. I don't know if I am willing to make a 1.25:1 call with bottom set when the pot sized turn bet did not deter him.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I think you guys are giving villain far too much credit. This is 25NL...many players will limp with any 2 suited cards, this includes J9s and 24s, and yes, even J4 and other crap. In addition, since you didn't bet the flop, he may think you are weak and be raising big to scare you off with a minor part of the flop (or a missed draw), or he may really think is J is good.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I don't think I'm folding that. QT or JJ seems to me the most likely hands that he has that beat you. But, you're going to see two pair there alot. I don't mind pushing because you're always looking for spots to get your stack in the middle, and they don't come around every hand. That being said, I'm still leaning toward a call. You see two pair/air there alot. But, I'd rather lose less here when I'm beat. I'm content with that-sized pot if my set is good given the action leading up to it.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I'll be honest, I haven't played a ring game in months because I mostly play Sit and Go's. But, I thought I would give them a try again to improve my postflop play.

After reading these comments, I think this was a fold.

The hands that have me beat are 99, KK, 44, JJ and QT.

The hands that I beat that he could reasonably have UTG are KJ, K9s?, J9 (note: I wouldn't play any of these myself), some pocket pairs, or a complete bluff.

So, both list are about the same length, but think the list of hands that beat me contain the more likely hands.

I was expecting to see QT, but I thought what the hell, if they called a pot sized bet for a gut shot I'll pay them off.

Based on pot odds, I have to be winning 42% of the time here. Is that likely?

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

one must also consider this IS PP 25NL and the play on average is atrocious at best.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was expecting to see QT, but I thought what the hell, if they called a pot sized bet for a gut shot I'll pay them off.

[/ QUOTE ]

When no one bet the flop, villian would have to see his Q and T as outs as well. It's semi-reasonable for him to call your flop bet with QT.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I also play NL 25 and like stated above the players there can be pretty bad, but there are two extremes at this level...

One is a person who will bet large when they have something they think is the nuts, like two pair or TPTK (these are the people who pay off your sets) the other is a person that plays passive till they make a legitimate hand and then tell you plainly that you're beat by betting out rather than check/calling.

Spotting these two types and using this info are the best reads you can make at these levels.

So which type is the villain?

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

This is CLEARLY a please call me push, whether he thinks two pair is good or not is another issue.

As for his range, lets discount 4j, 49, 4k, even morons can fold those utg. So now we have j9, kj, k9, 44, 99, jj, kk, q10.

Another posted said q10 was unlikely, I disagree, I think it is VERY likely, as is KK. He is clearly on a "slowplay"

I think KJ is very unlikely, as we woulda of heard from him earlier, ESP if he raises two pair on the river like this. K9 is a remote possibility, but I would expect some turn action.

So now, I think his most likely holdings (in order of probability) are

q10&gt;kk&gt;j9&gt;jj=99=44, followed by K9&gt;KJ remotely.

I poker stoved this range and got

Board: 9c Kc 4d 2h Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.1304 % 39.13% 00.00% { 2d2s }
Hand 2: 60.8696 % 60.87% 00.00% { KK, JJ, 99, 44, K9s, QTs, J9s, K9o, QTo, J9o }

If we add, KJs, kj our equity is now 49%. However, as I said before, I think KJ is unlikely, and q10 and KK are very likely, if this is the case, our equity is below 39%. I think a fold is in order.

Edit: I am well aware of the atrocious play at 25nl, but if you look at his actions from a (SEMI) logical standpoit, my analysis makes sense. I have not included bluffing in my range, and I dont know how to do that. I dunno if he bluffs often here though.

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

I don't believe KK or JJ are in villain's range, and I don't see how you can claim KK is very likely.

If villain is bad enough to play KK that way, then villain is bad enough to limp with J4

Re: ($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.
 

Villain limps UTG looking to Limp raise, donks do this all the time with kk.
Lets look at it from villains perspective
He flops the nuts and thinks, lets let someone catch up so I can win a big pot. His opponent bet the turn, so q10 is unlikely. Now river comes, BAM bet you didnt see that coming.
OR
JJ limps utg preflop all the time, whether cuz he is playing scared or looking for reraise. He logically checks flop, then hero bets an innocuous turn card, so villain calls. BAM, hits his set and raises big, bet you didnt see that coming.

Edit: Limping j4o utg is unreasonable here, maybe j4s. I will concede we can include j4s in his range, and actually it can be a likely holding, but this still brings me to my point, when villain raises the river HUGE, the big hands like sets and str8s become much more likely, unless we REALLY think villain will do this with 2 pair a significant portion of the time (I dont).

FYI I would never fold this in the heat of the moment, but I think analyzing it after the fact shows a fold is in order. If villain is this big a donk, lets not risk our stack on a decision this close, lets wait til we have him cynched.

Results
 

Thanks for all the comments. I’m glad to see a mixture of opinions to insure me that this wasn’t an easy decision.

PartyPoker - $25 NL Texas - 10 players (Converter: PGC)

Starting Balances:
Button: $26.1
<font color="red">Hero: $25.65</font>
BB: $72
UTG: $27.1
UTG+1: $6.99
MP1: $23.55
MP2: $25
MP3: $21.27
LP1: $27.8
CO: $24.15

Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PreFlop
MP2 posts BB
<font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>, <font color="blue">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="blue">LP1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">CO folds</font>, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>

(4 players) FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="green">Hero checks</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>, <font color="green">UTG checks</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>

(4 players) TURN: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($1)</font>, <font color="blue">BB folds</font>, <font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">MP2 folds</font>

(2 players) RIVER: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $3 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($2)</font>, <font color="red">UTG RAISES ($15)</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>

Final Pot: $33

Results:
UTG shows:JsJh,three of a kind, jacks
SB shows:2s2d,three of a kind, twos

Re: Results
 

Is there a reason he bet so much on the end? wtf is going on? This is why I feel like I should play at least 100NL, because I feel like calling the river is fine (because who would raise to $15 with top set, nut straight, or even second set?).

/me really confused