I win, now what?
 

Sorry for the flooding of posts today.

villain is an aggressive nit. I've been involved in like 3 conversations over the last 24 hours on hands like this.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero ?

Re: I win, now what?
 

Raise. He has AT.

-SmileyEH

Re: I win, now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise. He has AT.

-SmileyEH

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He's 13/10. I don't think that's what he has most the time here. I think we're usually looking at a pp, but could be a small suited broadway.

Re: I win, now what?
 

I like a raise here. I put him on AT/KT/QT/JT or middle-strength PP's like 55-77.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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I like a raise here. I put him on AT/KT/QT/JT or middle-strength PP's like 55-77.

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I've been considering waiting until the river to raise here.

Re: I win, now what?
 

i think you can check behind on the flop against 5 players, id probly raise the turn

Re: I win, now what?
 

I think you should still raise. Sometimes you will lose him but often you will have quite the coup with villian folding a 5outer in a 10BB pot. And if he folds to much you can bluff raise the turn more too. In general I'd like to keep my opponents making tough decisions.

-SmileyEH

Re: I win, now what?
 

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i think you can check behind on the flop against 5 players, id probly raise the turn

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I don't like that here.

Too good of a chance to clean up outs and get a free card.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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i think you can check behind on the flop against 5 players, id probly raise the turn

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With so many cards in the deck that could significantly raise our equity on the turn I think a flop bet is good if it means that the turn will get checked to Hero a good percentage of the time - at which point we can bet for value, or check behind and see a free river card.

Re: I win, now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should still raise. Sometimes you will lose him but often you will have quite the coup with villian folding a 5outer in a 10BB pot. And if he folds to much you can bluff raise the turn more too. In general I'd like to keep my opponents making tough decisions.

-SmileyEH

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I agree. This would be better imo if the pot was smaller.

I went ahead and popped it there and lost him. My have folded the 5 outer...who knows.

Re: I win, now what?
 

I say raise.

Re: I win, now what?
 

Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable.

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wtf?

Re: I win, now what?
 

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I like a raise here. I put him on AT/KT/QT/JT or middle-strength PP's like 55-77.

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I've been considering waiting until the river to raise here.

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That's what I'd do. I find players are much more likely to call a river raise than a turn raise.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable.

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wtf?

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I don't get the wtf? If you be a little more specific maybe we can discuss it.

Re: I win, now what?
 

I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable.

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wtf?

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I don't get the wtf? If you be a little more specific maybe we can discuss it.

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Hero's hand is good about 98% of the time here. This is not a WA/WB situation.

-SmileyEH

Re: I win, now what?
 

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I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

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Why would I not bet the flop?

Re: I win, now what?
 

The preflop play is a GREAT move, so long as it does not cause you to make errors post flop (like betting the flop unimproved into five players).

The flop is ok for your hand. You have three to a straight and a flush as well as two overcards. You have the best hand very rarely; even if no one has paired someone has ace high.

Your hand can be valued at 5-7 outs. Three combined outs for the backdoor straight and flush draws and two to four outs for the overcards (discounted because they are dodgy at best). This is not enough of a hand to bet for value. While you could conceivably buy two outs by making KQ fold on the flop, I find it pretty unlikely that this hand would not peel a bet, as would AJ and AQ. No 10, 4, or small pocket pair will be folding here (unless they are in the hands of a very inexperienced rock), and a player in early position looking to face the field with two with a small pocket pair could easily check raise you. I would take a free card, given the nature of your hand.

Betting has some advantages. You might get a free river card, fold a 6 out hand like 98, and improve your chances of winning this big pot but I find it more likely you will just put in some bets when behind, and lose most of the time.

Re: I win, now what?
 

Some reasons to raise now:

(1) You may get paid off, which is an improvement over having Villain induce a bluff on the river from your AK after you call the turn (if he would do that).

(2) Some cards (A, K, J) will make it harder to get paid off on the river, if Villain holds a medium pair or a hand like T9s.

(3) Like Smiley points out, raising in this spot combines well with bluff-raises in other hands, if Villain has a tendency to take bet-fold lines.

(4) If Villain has a 5-outer, it's not a tragedy if he folds.


Some reasons to call:

(1) You'd prefer that Villain not fold a two-outer, if he would have paid off a bet unimproved on the river.

(2) Villain may have seen enough river bluff-raises from 2/4 donks that he's more suspicious of a river raise than a turn raise and will be more likely to call.

(3) A call here fits in well with a call with AK or AJ.


I'm sure those lists are not complete. The decision seems close to me. Generally speaking, I think you're better off raising immediately in this spot at 2/4, but Villain doesn't sound like a typical opponent.

Re: I win, now what?
 

The question is whether you would rather take your free card on the flop or on the turn. I think checking or betting are both good options, and I'm not sure how much of a difference they actually make. With a big pot like this, I think you can make some good moves on the turn if you catch a great card. I think a raise on the turn is mandatory, whether you checked or bet.

Re: I win, now what?
 

As for the turn, I do not think anything but a raise is really up for debate. You have the best hand the majority of the time and the pot is getting pretty big. You have to defend a large pot.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

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With overcards, a three-flush, and a good three-straight, in a board that is likely to have missed the majority of opponents (note the paired 4s), Q has a fair amount of equity here. In what has become a big pot, betting makes sense in order to clear up possible overcard outs and allow Q to take a free river card a lot of the time, and with 5-6-ish outs here probably on average we have enough equity in a five-way pot so that a bet is not going to be hugely bad in most situations. Even in situations where we get check-raised and the pot ends up heads-up, that often means we are heads-up in position with 9 pure outs, which is really not that bad a spot to be.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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Is this the type of player that can fold a 10 if you raise the turn? If so, I'm calling down in what seems to be WA/WB situation. It's a big pot and you only need to win about 25% of the time to make it profitable.

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wtf?

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I don't get the wtf? If you be a little more specific maybe we can discuss it.

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Hero's hand is good about 98% of the time here. This is not a WA/WB situation.

-SmileyEH

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98% of the time doesn't constitute way ahead? If he's not ahead, how many outs does he have to take the pot? I like a calldown because when he raises, he loses someone who has at most 5 outs (who probably wouldn't fold with 5 outs anyway). So really, a raise only loses someone with 2 outs.

Re: I win, now what?
 

"98% of the time doesn't constitute way ahead? If he's not ahead, how many outs does he have to take the pot? I like a calldown because when he raises, he loses someone who has at most 5 outs (who probably wouldn't fold with 5 outs anyway). So really, a raise only loses someone with 2 outs."

I am not sure if you are being facetious? WA/WB in general refers to hands where you have a close to 50/50 shot at being either. For example AA on an AKK flop is not WA/WB, it is WAWAWAWAWWAWA/sometimes (almost never) (really almost never) WB, and should certainly not be played WA/WB.


KK on an A72 board heads up is WAWB, for example.

Re: I win, now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
clean up outs

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Huh? You think someone is folding QT on this flop? Or you are are betting specifically hoping someone has JK/ KQ and they don't call with their overcards in this big pot and one of the two cards of the rank you share comes out? Either way, this sounds like a huge stretch.

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and get a free card.

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You can get a free card 100% of the time by checking when you are last to act rather than betting into four people with queen high.

Re: I win, now what?
 

Call and raise the river is a line I take sometimes. I would check this flop though.

Rob

Re: I win, now what?
 

If he folded I would make it a point to steal pots from this guy in the future. Seriously.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With overcards, a three-flush, and a good three-straight, in a board that is likely to have missed the majority of opponents (note the paired 4s), Q has a fair amount of equity here. In what has become a big pot, betting makes sense in order to clear up possible overcard outs and allow Q to take a free river card a lot of the time, and with 5-6-ish outs here probably on average we have enough equity in a five-way pot so that a bet is not going to be hugely bad in most situations. Even in situations where we get check-raised and the pot ends up heads-up, that often means we are heads-up in position with 9 pure outs, which is really not that bad a spot to be.

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Will,

I'm starting to think you may autobet too many flops. Between this and the JTc flop, especially. I think this is a flop check as there are no outs to be cleaned.

Rob

Re: I win, now what?
 

I agree with entity that this flop is a pretty easy check.

Re: I win, now what?
 

Willy-Will,

I really don't think that betting to clean up outs is a good reason to bet on this board. Take a look at it again.

Brett

Re: I win, now what?
 

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I agree with entity that this flop is a pretty easy check.

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I disagree with you, Entity, Bobbyi and BrettBrett. I like that. I'm probably going to get something straightened out here.

At any rate, this is post that made me start betting more flops. Granted, there are plenty of differences here, but I think the concepts can apply here. I'll take anyone folding that I can get.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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At any rate, this is post that made me start betting more flops

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These are two completely different flops.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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At any rate, this is post that made me start betting more flops

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These are two completely different flops.

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I understand that. This bet cannot be THAT bad. 2 overs, and 2 backdoors. I don't consider it to be an EASY check.

However, I did just talk to chief444, who made that post, and he said he checks it. I said "no you don't". He said "Yes I do". And I cried a little.

So....

Maybe this is closer to a check than a bet, and we're more likely to get raised since we were the PFR and people are expecting it.

He also wanted to wait for the river to raise since many will not be folding a 5 outer anyway.

If he says anything else, what he had for lunch or whatever, I'll be sure to convey it.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: I win, now what?
 

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This bet cannot be THAT bad.

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I don't think its *THAT* bad. I just don't think its that good is all.

Re: I win, now what?
 

I think what is being lost is that I prefaced my response with "if he is the type to fold a 10 to a raise." If he's going to call down with a 10, this is a clear raise. There wasn't a read given in the original post, so my response was more to give a different line that was strictly player dependent.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

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With overcards, a three-flush, and a good three-straight, in a board that is likely to have missed the majority of opponents (note the paired 4s), Q has a fair amount of equity here. In what has become a big pot, betting makes sense in order to clear up possible overcard outs and allow Q to take a free river card a lot of the time, and with 5-6-ish outs here probably on average we have enough equity in a five-way pot so that a bet is not going to be hugely bad in most situations. Even in situations where we get check-raised and the pot ends up heads-up, that often means we are heads-up in position with 9 pure outs, which is really not that bad a spot to be.

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Will,

I'm starting to think you may autobet too many flops. Between this and the JTc flop, especially. I think this is a flop check as there are no outs to be cleaned.

Rob

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Rob, Brett, Bobby,

I think you guys are right. I autobet too many flops. I am going to stop doing that.

I think that this might well be a pretty valuable realization for me. Thanks for the assistance.

-Will(y)

Re: I win, now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
At any rate, this is post that made me start betting more flops.

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I don't think this hand is similar to that one. Differences include:
1) You have a stronger draw there. A gutshot to the nuts with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw is a strong draw. Here, you just have overcards and backdoors.

2) The likely way it will play out if you bet is very different. In the other hand, the preflop raiser had already checked as had the players acting after him. The chance that one of these people is check-raising is very small. You could get check-raised by BB, but that is just one guy to worry about. If you bet, it is likely you will get called in several spots (given the big pot and the coordinated board) and checked to again on the turn, which is a great outcome for your hand. In this hand, everyone checked to you as the preflop raiser on the button. It's much more likely that someone is sandbagging. Given the board, anyone with a ten is probably check-raising and you often get raised by a pocket pair like 88. This covers a lot of popular limping hands. If you're behind, you don't benefit from having a guy with 76s fold here, which he will. It's likely that your bet results in you paying two bets to see the turn against one opponent, which is a terrible outcome when you could have checked and seen it for free.

You have position. Use it. One of the reasons you want to act last is that you can take a free card here and screw over whoever was sandbagging. I love playing with people who squander their positional advantage by betting every time the field checks to them.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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At any rate, this is post that made me start betting more flops.

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I don't think this hand is similar to that one. Differences include:
1) You have a stronger draw there. A gutshot to the nuts with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw is a strong draw. Here, you just have overcards and backdoors.

2) The likely way it will play out if you bet is very different. In the other hand, the preflop raiser had already checked as had the players acting after him. The chance that one of these people is check-raising is very small. You could get check-raised by BB, but that is just one guy to worry about. If you bet, it is likely you will get called in several spots (given the big pot and the coordinated board) and checked to again on the turn, which is a great outcome for your hand. In this hand, everyone checked to you as the preflop raiser on the button. It's much more likely that someone is sandbagging. Given the board, anyone with a ten is probably check-raising and you often get raised by a pocket pair like 88. This covers a lot of popular limping hands. If you're behind, you don't benefit from having a guy with 76s fold here, which he will. It's likely that your bet results in you paying two bets to see the turn against one opponent, which is a terrible outcome when you could have checked and seen it for free.

You have position. Use it. One of the reasons you want to act last is that you can take a free card here and screw over whoever was sandbagging. I love playing with people who squander their positional advantage by betting every time the field checks to them.

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This post rules. Thanks Bobby.

Re: I win, now what?
 

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Here, you just have overcards and backdoors.

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On a paired board, no less.

Those two hands are completely different. I don't think we're talking a huge difference in EV here, but given how often this comes up when you start making these SC-type raises in LP and you miss a flop where your FE isn't superduper and your equity itself isn't great.

Rob