Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

My first tourney at the Bellagio was pretty uneventful. I finished 40th (they paid 27, 261 entrants). We started with 4k chips, and I never had more than 11k, this hand ocurred when I had a 11k stack.

Blinds 200-400 with 75 ante. Less than 100 players left at this point.

Player UTG is desperate and go all in with his last 2500.

I have AJ in UTG+1, and I'm pretty sure his range is so large that I have him beat, so, I decided to make the call.

Now, player in LP does not cooperate with my clever plan and go all in for about 5800, and then player in the SB decides this is a good pot to go all in, he has about 3 or 4k.

Back to me, I have to call about 3.3k into the 15 or 16k pot.

After some calculations, I decided to make the call.

Hands:

UTG: K2d
LP: QQ
SB: 87c

So, I had a chance with my A, the flop came 863 all spades, I have the As and nobody has a spade; so suddenly I'm the favorite; but the QQ managed to dodge all the bullets and won the hand.

There were 2 important points in the hand:

What do you think about the first call? You still have 8 people to act !!

What about the 2nd call? The guy who went all in had to have QQ+ , no way he has AK, if he has AK he would've just called.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
My first tourney at the Bellagio was pretty uneventful. I finished 40th (they paid 27, 261 entrants). We started with 4k chips, and I never had more than 11k, this hand ocurred when I had a 11k stack.

Blinds 200-400 with 75 ante. Less than 100 players left at this point.

Player UTG is desperate and go all in with his last 2500.

I have AJ in UTG+1, and I'm pretty sure his range is so large that I have him beat, so, I decided to make the call.

Now, player in LP does not cooperate with my clever plan and go all in for about 5800, and then player in the SB decides this is a good pot to go all in, he has about 3 or 4k.

Back to me, I have to call about 3.3k into the 15 or 16k pot.

After some calculations, I decided to make the call.

Hands:

UTG: K2d
LP: QQ
SB: 87c

So, I had a chance with my A, the flop came 863 all spades, I have the As and nobody has a spade; so suddenly I'm the favorite; but the QQ managed to dodge all the bullets and won the hand.

There were 2 important points in the hand:

What do you think about the first call? You still have 8 people to act !!

What about the 2nd call? The guy who went all in had to have QQ+ , no way he has AK, if he has AK he would've just called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the first call was the only questionable one, IMO. With a ton of ppl still left to act, you could get yourself in some trouble - which you sort of did. It depends on the chip stacks of the players behind you, I think.

However, with all of that money in the pot, you're getting around 4.5-1 on your money so it's a must-call. With the hands that were in, you were only a 4-1 dog (20%) so you made the right call after all the pushes if you can't put anyone on AA. But you your original call got you in a bit of a mess.

Just my 2 cents.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

i like the first call, i'm not worried about the people behind me, if UTG had folded i'd probably have raised anyway. as for the LP guy, i dont see why you say he won't do that with AK.. unless you knew something really specific about hi, i'd sya he'd do that with AK, maybe even AQ. anyways, without doing any pokerstove, i'd imagine you have more equity than you'd need w/ the 5:1 odds.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I don't like the first call from UTG+1. The second call seems ok.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

Taling about the 2nd call first, becaus that is how I roll: Even if you're up against AK and AQ (instead of QQ and 87s) you're still only a 4:1 dog getting 4.5:1. However, if AA is lurking out there, you plummet to something like a 12:1 dog. Is AA a likely enough holding to push this into being a -EV call? I kind of doubt it, but it decreases your edge. Also, winning this pot will give you a massive stack, so I like gambling here.

I'm not a fan of the first call, I would almost certainly just fold it. I remember reading somewhere that AJ isn't +EV from early position because of the likelihood that one of the 8 or 9 hands behind it will be a large favorite against it (not sure if this is true at all). So, simply jamming, while it could get something like AQ to fold, is a bad move IMO. To me, it seems calling almost forces you into making a razor-thin +EV call later on this street. Or, worse, if one of the LP players simply calls (I assume there are some stacks that are similar in size or bigger than yours yet to act) it forces you to play a huge pot OOP with AJ. Ugh.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I think you should have gone all in to isolate the short stack. He has a very low M and you described him as desperate so it seems safe to assume that he has a wide range of hands and playing with your aj has positive expectation.

If you call and someone else plays you are probably going to be priced in and it is unlikely that you will fold. I hesitate to say that you are totally committed and if there is any flaw in my logic it is here. I get the sense that live play is much less aggressive than online but on pokerstars or something I wouldn't be able to put a reraiser on aces or whatever and fold getting good odds. (How good your odds are likely to be depends on the rest of the stacks at the table. If they all cover then you aren't going to be priced in as well.) Still, calling 1/4th of your stack and then folding seems really distasteful.

Given that you are somewhat committed by calling, your hand is obviously not strong enough that you want to encourage people to play with you. Move your chips in and scare off aq, jj, maybe even ak or qq from a weak/tight.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

call #1: don't like it. if i was going to play at all (which depends on the aggressiveness and chip stacks of those behind me, which you didn't provide), i'd re-raise all in. by simply calling and providing excellent odds for callers behind you, you're depending on those behind you to implicitly collude and not bet you off your hand if you miss the flop. your call represents a significant % of your stack and i don't feel comfortable relying on others to "play nice" and let me see the river for free -- which is precisely what i'm looking to do by just calling with AJ.

call #2: you're basically priced in at this point but now i'd DEFINITELY re-raise all-in (if possible) -- since i'm in this deep, i certainly don't want to be bet off my hand.

And without reads, i don't know how you could possibly put that player with QQ on a range as narrow as QQ+ -- at a minimum, he could easily have AK (suited or not) or JJ; I wouldn't be shocked to see 99-TT/AQs here either. Like you, he probably saw the first all-in as a desperate play by a weakish hand and knowing that you probably read it the same way and just called instead of re-raising to isolate, he may have assumed your hand wasn't all that strong either and that 1) he has you both beat and 2) you just might fold to his re-raise. with such a read, you can't expect him to fold hands like 99+/AK, AQ and he can't just call since the call would be nearly 1/2 his stack.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I think you should push immediately.

If you think your range is good against UTG, then you don't want anyone else coming in.

There are no circumstances where you will fold to a reraise so get the maximum amount of FE.

On the margin you are only going to fold out (maybe) AQ,TT,AK and hands like that.

I wouldn't even consider folding with your read and an undistinguised stack.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
The guy who went all in had to have QQ+ , no way he has AK, if he has AK he would've just called

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to hear why you think this.

Re: Interesting Hand
 

Personally being next to act I would not play AJ, suited or offsuit. There are too many players left to act and I would
be feaful of the scenrio you had to face. If I were the button and he
was the cutoff I would play the hand. I'm not exactly certain, but I think if I were to play the AJ in your spot I'd reraise
myself.

The guy with QQ appears to have played the hand fine, unless
I'm missing something. He knows UTG is probably weak and
he probably assumes you're not tremendously strong either by your simple call and lack of reraising.
He has the third best start handing so if I were him I'd gladly push.

Bruce

Re: Interesting Hand
 

Based on your first call, it's an easy second call. What are you getting, 4 to 1? Funny thing with the flop you're almost a favorite.

Bruce

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should push immediately.

If you think your range is good against UTG, then you don't want anyone else coming in.

There are no circumstances where you will fold to a reraise so get the maximum amount of FE.

On the margin you are only going to fold out (maybe) AQ,TT,AK and hands like that.

I wouldn't even consider folding with your read and an undistinguised stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same at first (jamming to increase FE), but I'm not sure about that now. If he did decide to call (and I wouldn't, for what it's worth), he can still fold against a big stack push. The LP in this matter is pushing/calling a pretty narrow range as it is, regardless of sirio's actions and sirio has to call him pretty much everytime.

So, he might get a big stack to fold AQ, but I think in the long run, he'll save more money from being able to fold to a big stack push, while the small-medium size stacks aren't really effected from his actions.

On a side note, I havn't slept in a very long time and i'm not sure I was able to express myself here, so I apologize in advance if this whole post didn't make any sense. It did in my head, at least [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Based on your first call, it's an easy second call. What are you getting, 4 to 1? Funny thing with the flop you're almost a favorite.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

with an all spade flop, he is the favorite.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The guy who went all in had to have QQ+ , no way he has AK, if he has AK he would've just called

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to hear why you think this.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i had AK there, i would turbo-push. in fact, i think that i would not call with any hands there.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
After some calculations, I decided to make the call.


[/ QUOTE ]

i would have a hard time doing this on 2+2, with pokerstove and plenty of time. want to give a rough idea what you did at the time?

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I wouldn't call because it not only let's hands like AK, AQ, TT-JJ stay in, but it gives another bigger stack the opportunity to try to bluff you if he thinks you're weak. I would probably fold here because of the people left to act behind me, but if I were going to play, I would repush so everyone knew I was committed.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

For what it's worth, AJ has a 24% chance of running into JJ-AA or AQ, AK with 8 players left to act.

If you were a bit more short-stacked, I would push this. In this spot with your stack, I would probably fold.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
The guy who went all in had to have QQ+ , no way he has AK, if he has AK he would've just called.

[/ QUOTE ] Really? He has a stack of 5800, and he's going to just call a 2500 bet with AK? What have you been smoking, and can I have a puff?

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I don't like your UTG+1 call, maybe from LP, but not your position. Calling 3.3K after you already put in 2.5K is correct given the pot size. I think what got you in trouble is the initial call from early position. This is just my opinion.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I think its a bad idea to put 1/4 of your stack in with a marginal hand with the idea of folding to subsequent action.

Here are my crude combat ready calculations:

There are 40 hands you are afraid of: (ak,aq,aa-jj) (12,12,18) probably less if you credit UTG for 1/2 an ace or so.

time 8 players left to act = 320 hands/1300 hands ~ 25% of the time you are called and dominated.

If you can fold out AQ then you are called and dominated only 30X8=240/1300 ~18% of the time.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think its a bad idea to put 1/4 of your stack in with a marginal hand with the idea of folding to subsequent action.

Here are my crude combat ready calculations:

There are 40 hands you are afraid of: (ak,aq,aa-jj) (12,12,18) probably less if you credit UTG for 1/2 an ace or so.

time 8 players left to act = 320 hands/1300 hands ~ 25% of the time you are called and dominated.

If you can fold out AQ then you are called and dominated only 30X8=240/1300 ~18% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a little off. Multiplying 40 x # of players left will give you a decent estimate but it's on the high side.

But there are fewer hand than you said so that balances it back up a little. 1225 (50*49/2) possible hands from 50 remaining cards. The odds no one has one of the 40 dominating hands is

(1185/1225) ^ 8 = 76.7% ----> 23.3% that someone has you dominated.

Edit: Of course you can't do this one in your head at the table... I think the point is to realize that when you do a rough estimate your way you end up a little high... similar to the outs calculation where you multiply by 4 for your equity.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

Thanks. The 1225 number is a glaring hole in my computations (~6%).

I'm still learning basic things. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
The guy who went all in had to have QQ+ , no way he has AK, if he has AK he would've just called.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense to me. I cant imagine AK just calling here. Anyways, 2nd call is mandatory given the 1st, but I would have either pushed or folded from the start.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I muck to the first raise, as you said, too many people behind you. AQ i would reraise.

I think you are pretty well potcommitted here to the second raise.

Re: Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament
 

I think knowing relative stack sizes would help as would the general temperment of the table.

Against the hand range of a lone, desperate, short stack, I think your 1.5:1 pot odds are good.

But other factors are important. You are out of position and we don't know how the table is playing and what the relative stack sizes are.

Some questions I would ask myself here are 1) do the other players perceive me as an active player involved in a lot of pots 2) are there any big stacks behind me who are capable and willing to pull off a squeeze play 3) are there a couple people behind me who have shown a willingness to get involved in big pots pf when there are already multiple people involved?

If the answer to any of these questions is yes, I'm probably dumping the hand. I don't want to call off 20% of my stack and then have to play AJ out of position agasint an aggressive field, nor do I want to face a reraise from behind that I'll be obligate to call but further chews significantly into my stack (the situation you were faced with). If I think the table is fairly passive and I'm unlikely to see any other callers or a squeeze play, I probably make the call.

I think the 2nd call is required, but is also an example of the trouble you can get yourself into playing AJ oop in this situation.