Soul Searching
 

Some of my stats over my last 60k (which have been my worst stretch ever) are pretty horrible. So, I'm starting some soul searching. This fold ok?

MP is uknown, EP is semi-loose.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds

Re: Soul Searching
 

I'd say it's a good fold.

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
Some of my stats over my last 60k (which have been my worst stretch ever) are pretty horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to go into this further? I imagine, given the quality of your posts, that your poor run has resulted in a reduced win rate, rather than a loss?

Re: Soul Searching
 

It's a good fold. I raise this preflop.

Re: Soul Searching
 

Good fold.

Entity, why the raise preflop from the SB? Do we really have the best hand? Disguise? Can you elaborate?

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold.

Entity, why the raise preflop from the SB? Do we really have the best hand? Disguise? Can you elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

We have a good hand and a fair amount of equity, and due to the relatively small % of hands people raise from the SB, we tend to get a lot more credit for a big hand (and consequently pick up more pots with a flop bet than we would otherwise). But basically when we've got a loose limper and someone else who doesn't like his hand (or doesn't understand poker well enough) to isolate that limper, I think we've got plenty of equity and don't mind playing a big pot at all.

Rob

Re: Soul Searching
 

Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)

Plus if you 3 bet the UTG+1 might lay down whatever random crap he holds.

Thought/Comments/Laughing/Ridicule

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would consider this if we had position in the hand and could check behind on the river.

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)

Plus if you 3 bet the UTG+1 might lay down whatever random crap he holds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we should be worried about UTG+1. He is certainly a weak player who does not know how to play poker or does not like his hand.

With that being said, the person to keep attention to is MP2, whom I'm pretty sure has KQ right now. You do have an OESFD, but you're drawing against the nuts on the turn. You 3-bet and he will cap. If you make a straight, you either lose with the low-end or you chop with a K. Two pair is no good. Set is no good. Assuming your two opponents hold no diamonds, your best case is nine outs. You will only make this flush 20% of the time with all nine outs.

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)

Plus if you 3 bet the UTG+1 might lay down whatever random crap he holds.

Thought/Comments/Laughing/Ridicule

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're 3-betting the turn it's because you want UTG+1 to call. The problem with your outs analysis is that you're mostly relying on your flush outs -- trip outs aren't good against a straight or 2pr, 2pr outs are only good against a worse 2pr...

So if you weight his range of hands for this turn raise and say it's something like:

KQ 15%
JT 30%
99/44 15%
87 20%
Q8 20%

In that event, you'd have about 30% equity and would still be losing bets on a 3-bet, especially if UTG+1 folded. In addition, you'd miss out on a profitable river checkraise when you hit your flush if MP has two pair, and you'd get capped by a better hand pretty frequently. You're putting yourself in a nasty spot for RIO by 3-betting the turn here, even though your hand looks pretty, especially when you're inclined to bet a lot of your "outs" on the river when you hit them, even if they aren't good.

Rob

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)


[/ QUOTE ]

9 outs to flush, 6 to straight (already counted K and 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as flush outs). Not sure if this was just a mistake or you usually double count your outs. Just want to make sure you get it right.

Re: Soul Searching
 

I raise preflop here also. This is just a pure value bet. You likely have the best hand, and also probably will have at least some kind of draw on the flop. Either overcards, or at least some kind of gutshot.

You probably have an equity edge because of the loose player. Anytime the pot is being contested by at least 50% loose players, I think you can raise ANY TWO SUITED BROADWAY cards out of the blinds. If there are either a high proportion of tight players, or one or more supertight players already in the pot, I don't make the raise.

The raise gives you some measure of control of the hand, in this case, with the pot three handed, it is possible that everyone misses, and you could win on the flop if noone else improves. In a multiway pot, you will bloat the pot, which will reduce the importance of position. Finally, when I started playing, I only raised very big hands out of the blinds, there are certainly a lot of players that play that way, and this provides a measure of disquise to what you might be playing.

I know this doesn't apply to most of us here because we play online, but Clarkmeister said something like, 'If you aren't sure that this is a good raise, look at your opponents faces, and their unhappiness will convince you that you did something good for yourself.' Think about the times that you limped, and then one of the blinds raised. How did you feel? How did you play the hand from that point on? Do you think that the raiser from the blinds had an advantage?

Anytime that mostly loose players are in the pot, I raise any two suited broadway cards from the CO, button, and either blind. If the players are sufficiently loose and predictable, and the CO and button are tight, I also raise these hands from the Hijack spot.

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
'If you aren't sure that this is a good raise, look at your opponents faces, and their unhappiness will convince you that you did something good for yourself.' Think about the times that you limped, and then one of the blinds raised. How did you feel? How did you play the hand from that point on? Do you think that the raiser from the blinds had an advantage?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice.

Re: Soul Searching
 

who loves poker? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

that was pretty much the worst river card. at 2/4, I can't see how you are ahead ever. even I fold here, and I call down too much as it is.

Re: Soul Searching
 

[ QUOTE ]
who loves poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

I do?

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Soul Searching
 

Good fold. Krimson is right on the money about a three bet, only with position. I hate folding and i do here, we dont have anything.

I dont raise out of the small with JQs ever though. About people giving you credit for a bigger hand, at 2/4 I just dont think this happens. Everyone is terrible.