Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

BB is 32/22/4 (prob one of you guys)
UTG is 25/2/0 over only 50 hands
CO is 82/10/1


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

I'd seriously consider folding preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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I'd seriously consider folding preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure.

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I would have folded against that raiser here.

what was the flop plan? did you consider leading?

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

I wouldn't fold PF here because of the small sample size on UTG. But I would play it very cautiously. He may have been getting nothing but trash for 50 hands, and you're missing out by folding.

I'd let the maniac lead and then bet-call the river. Or maybe check-raise if you're sure he'd bet it. After UTG folds you can feel a little better.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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BB is 32/22/4 (prob one of you guys)

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Not me yet, but I'm working on it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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I'd seriously consider folding preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure.

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f*ck stats. Play poker.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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I'd seriously consider folding preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure.

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f*ck stats. Play poker.

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lol, idiot

Edit: It's like you're saying "i don't care that he only raises once every 10 orbits, i have ACE-JACK!"

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

32/22/4 is NOT one of us guys.

Preflop coldcall: very bad. If you don't feel comfortable reraising it (and against a UTG raise from a guy who has raised exactly once in 50 hands, I wouldn't), you should toss it.

Flop: WTF?? This is where you should be getting bets in, if you think your hand is worth anything. Yeah, it's sexy to go for the big bets with your top pair, but you have no idea where you stand, especially with a tight PFR.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

"roflol"

Maybe it's like I'm saying he's got 50 hands on him and no other reads, so don't cream your jeans about the stats. 10 just means 10%, not the top 10%. You'll find lots of guys with low PFR stats making funny raises. I can dig up some hands if you want.

edit: the idiot remark was classy, btw

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

If you check-raise the turn, there's no way you should be calling it down when he 3-bets you.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

[ QUOTE ]
edit: the idiot remark was classy, btw

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Yeah, I know -- sorry. I wanted to remove it but it'd be like tampering with the scene of a crime so I only tried to explain it. It's my initial reaction to your quick reply, take it for what you will.

I know you are definitely a reasonable poster btw. Just not when I first read the response.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

This is not a great situation for the PF call. You have a likely passive raise UTG with a pretty aggressive player yet to act. I think that the PF call is marginal, but not likely a big leak either way. I don't think that this is the most critical part of the hand for me.

I don't know how you check-call this flop, though. Your hand is not really strong enough to slow play with 4 players seeing a flush draw flop. This flop seems a natural for the check-raise. As it turns out, the turn card was a pretty safe spot for a raise, but couldn't you have found out where you stood on the flop? Once it gets to the turn, I don't see how you can fold easily to the 3-bet with those pot odds. Maybe you can peel one off on the turn, but the odds on the river after the CO folds are making it hard not to call.

I think that if you want to play this hand then you need to get aggressive on this flop when it hits, or otherwise toss it right from the beginning. If you make your play on the flop and meet resistence then you find out what you need to know early and save yourself some bets on the big streets.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

Why not checkraise the flop instead of the turn. If you get 3bet then you get some more info, and it costs you less. Once you decide to CR the turn, and he 3 bets you, I think you can make the laydown. This may have been a check/calling kind of hand though.

C-Dog

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

25/2. Why aren't we folding this preflop?

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

[ QUOTE ]
"roflol"

Maybe it's like I'm saying he's got 50 hands on him and no other reads, so don't cream your jeans about the stats. 10 just means 10%, not the top 10%. You'll find lots of guys with low PFR stats making funny raises. I can dig up some hands if you want.


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Unfortunately, the preflop raiser is UTG .. 2%.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

Yeah this hand was all around messed up.

PF i think isnt too important.

Once I got an ace on the flop i want too excited casue i figured i had decent chance of being behind to UTG.
I cant really explain why but as soon as BB bet I "knew" like 90% he had my top pair beat or had two pair or a set. Maybe 80% two pair, %10 set. UTG's fold was weird....

UTG's fold is what really got me to stop taking seriously my read on BB. If UTG had ever raise or gotten invovled further I think I can get rid of this somehow...maybe--worst case i just check/call 1 bet a street.

This isn't the normal "ooh a piar--lets donk" idiot move. Given the preflop action and players I am convinced BB can beat a single pair when he donks the flop OOP into the PFR on the A-high flop.

So i just call hoping to improve.

UTG getting out left me thinking "OK LAG and calling station--maybe I'm best--lets c/r the turn..." not sure exactly where in there I decided to give up on my earlier read. This is the main reason I am posting this hand--I hate it when I do this...play without a continuous logical flow. and give away money in situatuions when i know better.

then i get 3-bet and start making up crap like "maybe he is going nuts with AT...." you know the routine

and if you call the turn you gotta call the river so there i go paying off like a moron.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

results: BB shows A4 and MHING

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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25/2. Why aren't we folding this preflop?

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Sample size.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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Once you decide to CR the turn, and he 3 bets you, I think you can make the laydown.

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We have so many hidden outs it is ridiculous.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

50 hands isn't everything, but it's something. PFR% converges fairly quickly. Sure, there is a chance that he's gotten nothing in 50 hands, but it's more probable that he doesn't raise all that much. That 2% statistic is currently our best estimate for his true PFR%, and completely disregarding it is foolish. We don't want to take it as gospel, either, but we can look and see that this guy probably isn't raising all that many hands preflop, and we're up against something good. Granted, there are exceptions. I was up against a guy on UB about a month ago who had a PFR of about 5%, but I was iso-3betting him with KJo, A8o, and stuff because he only raised junky hands. He slowplayed his good stuff. There aren't very many of these guys, though. Barring a real read, we can't assign a significant probability to this guy only raising his junk hands.

Just as we do Bayesian analysis when we consider hand ranges, the same math applies to opponent ranges. There's a probability this guy's true stats are 25/2. He might also be 30/10. Or 10/1. Or 40/20. He might be raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands, the 2nd 10%, or the bottom 10%. However, base on the ranges of players who, after 50 hands, have these stats, it's most probable that this guy has a VPIP of 20-30, a PFR of 1-7, and is raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands. Even if you want to completely disregard stats until you have thousands of hands of data on the guy, you're most correct to look at the average player from your database. This would be something like a VPIP of around 35, PFR around 12, and raises from a subset of the top 20% of hands. I'd strongly consider folding against this guy, too.

If someone is going to convince me that this is indeed a call preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure, you're going to have to make a much more convincing case than just saying "sample size too small."

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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Once you decide to CR the turn, and he 3 bets you, I think you can make the laydown.

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We have so many hidden outs it is ridiculous.

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When you factor in preflop you can't say he has tons of hidden outs. For every weak 2 pair combo I say he's behind 4-5 AK-AQ combos.

Krisahn

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

Not to mention the possibility of a set.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

How about raise the flop and call a three bet, but if BB leads off the turn, fold. If BB checks the turn, bet and fold to a checkraise. ????????

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

What Tom said
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How about raise the flop and call a three bet, but if BB leads off the turn, fold. If BB checks the turn, bet and fold to a checkraise. ????????


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and regardless of the marginal nature of the pre flop call, this hand only gets you into trouble if you start contradicting your own thought process in the hand, which is what has annoyed you.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

misread hand

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

I would prolly fold pf, if I did call I agree w/ Krishan that we should play wa/wb here.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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I would prolly fold pf

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Me too.

Krishan

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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50 hands isn't everything, but it's something. PFR% converges fairly quickly. Sure, there is a chance that he's gotten nothing in 50 hands, but it's more probable that he doesn't raise all that much. That 2% statistic is currently our best estimate for his true PFR%, and completely disregarding it is foolish.

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I agree. What I mentioned about not creaming over the stats still holds, though. If 3 different players caught me for 50 hand stretches while datamining, one might see me as 23/16, one might get 35/22, and one 15/7.

If I only have 50 hands on a guy I'm going to rely much, much more on how I've percieved his play THIS session. If he's been here for 4 or 5 orbits and hasn't raised yet, then yeah, I'll probably dump AJo PF to his UTG raise. If I get the impression he's raising with more hands than his 2 PFR indicates, then I'm going to tangle with him more freely.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

[ QUOTE ]
50 hands isn't everything, but it's something. PFR% converges fairly quickly. Sure, there is a chance that he's gotten nothing in 50 hands, but it's more probable that he doesn't raise all that much. That 2% statistic is currently our best estimate for his true PFR%, and completely disregarding it is foolish. We don't want to take it as gospel, either, but we can look and see that this guy probably isn't raising all that many hands preflop, and we're up against something good. Granted, there are exceptions. I was up against a guy on UB about a month ago who had a PFR of about 5%, but I was iso-3betting him with KJo, A8o, and stuff because he only raised junky hands. He slowplayed his good stuff. There aren't very many of these guys, though. Barring a real read, we can't assign a significant probability to this guy only raising his junk hands.

Just as we do Bayesian analysis when we consider hand ranges, the same math applies to opponent ranges. There's a probability this guy's true stats are 25/2. He might also be 30/10. Or 10/1. Or 40/20. He might be raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands, the 2nd 10%, or the bottom 10%. However, base on the ranges of players who, after 50 hands, have these stats, it's most probable that this guy has a VPIP of 20-30, a PFR of 1-7, and is raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands. Even if you want to completely disregard stats until you have thousands of hands of data on the guy, you're most correct to look at the average player from your database. This would be something like a VPIP of around 35, PFR around 12, and raises from a subset of the top 20% of hands. I'd strongly consider folding against this guy, too.

If someone is going to convince me that this is indeed a call preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure, you're going to have to make a much more convincing case than just saying "sample size too small."

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Couldn't have put it better myself. Nice post.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

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If I only have 50 hands on a guy I'm going to rely much, much more on how I've percieved his play THIS session. If he's been here for 4 or 5 orbits and hasn't raised yet, then yeah, I'll probably dump AJo PF to his UTG raise. If I get the impression he's raising with more hands than his 2 PFR indicates, then I'm going to tangle with him more freely.

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I'm not sure how you would go about doing this unless you've seen the 1 hand he's raised so far and it was Q8 from UTG. You criticize the small sample size as far as using statistics, but trying to get a read on this guys general style of preflop play and ignoring stats isn't going to be much easier over 50 hands IMO.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

I think you're missing my point. You get a better feel for and understanding of a guy by observing his actual play than by looking at his stats.

In one sense, you're right. It could be the same thing.. I've sat with him for 4 orbits, he hasn't raised preflop or played many hands, I haven't seen junk at any of his showdowns, so it looks like those 50 hands are along the right lines.

It might be different, though. I've seen some bizarre hands limped in with, a legit raise, an odd A4o raise after two limpers, or T9s from the BB, and now I'm going to go on what I've seen, even if his stats are 25/2. Even if that's not his normal schtick, that's how he's playing right now, and I'm going to make decisions based on that.

I was never trying to argue that folding is incorrect. I'm just trying to challenge the "25/2 over 50 hands, easy fold" arguments. Paying attention and getting actual reads is far more important. It's especially important for players in this forum to understand that. The guys in the MHSH (or whatever it is) already know that.. they wouldn't have gotten past 5/10 if they routinely based the majority of their decisions on stats alone.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

I agree that there are reads that could push this to a call (or perhaps a more likely 3bet). All we got were some stats, though, so that's what I use to make my decision. I look at the stats, combine it with my other information (nothing, in this case), and reach a conclusion (easy fold, in this case). Of course, we can both take this opportunity to prod the OP to make and supply better reads [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Nine orbits should be more than enough time to get something a little more substantial.

Re: Why can\'t I fold...i know exactly what he has...!
 

Fold preflop.

The rest of the hand is the reason why I fold preflop.