QQ NL 1K
 

Villain is unknown. Haven't seen him step out of line, or play many pots yet. I've also been playing fairly abc, doubled up with a set of 4s a few hands earlier.

villain (1K) limps utg, I make it 40 with black QQ, villain calls.

Flop 5c 4c Ts villain check-calls 70

Turn 7d Checked to me, I bet 170, villain CRs to 415

Your action. (Sorry if this is too std, just wondering what most of you do here.) Thanks.

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

Well it sure looks like you're beat to me and you only have 2 cards left in the deck that can save you. Mother Muck the ladies and if it bothers you, then go ahead and confirm/deny your suspicions by going observed hand history crazy on this guy for the next week.

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

I don't have a problem folding overpairs, but what hands CR that turn?

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

Ya i let this one go. But i also check behind turn and get to showdown.

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a problem folding overpairs, but what hands CR that turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

a set

maybe AA, KK, but those are less likely

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a problem folding overpairs, but what hands CR that turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

55 or 44, check call the flop, raise turn, usually smells of set.

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

My friend who is quite good (ie better than me) was trying to convince me that in this spot villain will often hold some kind of combo draw.

I think a lot of cards can kill action for the flopped set if he chooses the check-call line on this flop, though of course I'd expect to see that some % of the time.

It sounds like everyone so far expects me to be toast in this spot though...

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ya i let this one go. But i also check behind turn and get to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're going to give a free card if the villain does have a draw. isn't his too weak or do ppl do this often? id bet the turn and fold to a raise based on the reads i have no villain.

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

Since reasonable club draws can include overcards, I basically never check this turn...I think folding to the CR is fine/std, but during the hand I didn't think he'd flopped a set.

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

the 7 doesn't fit the combo draw really, unless you are going to assume 67 of (clubs was it I forget and don't want to push back). I've seen this plenty of times with top pair/goodpair A kicker and the flush draw, and in that case the move would be to push or massive bet to price them out. I actually got this opportunity tonight and it was fun. However without knowning the playing you probably got to lay it down assuming its a set.

Re: QQ NL 1K
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a problem folding overpairs, but what hands CR that turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
This smells very much of a set. It's also possible that he decided to trap with a smooth call preflop with something like AA, but that's a play you will see less often and he would be more likely to not wait until the turn in that scenario. The read on him is that you don't know him but he hasn't stepped out of line, he hasn't played many hands, and furthermore you have only showed down good hands so if he is unfamiliar with you then he should respect you. If he respects you and you have been betting and showing no weakness after raising preflop, then there is really no reason for him to push the action here unless he has a big hand.

With the reads going on and the action that went down, you're beat here much more often than not. I briefly considered the possibility of 76 too before initially replying, but I just don't see that happening very often here unless you have completely misread him (maybe of no fault of your own.. even some LAGs will appear tight when they are getting dealt trash over and over again). Even LAGs that are good will sense you most likely have an overpair and if they don't know you, they will often think that their fold equity is shot, leading them to not push the action so much in this spot. The typical "Brunsonian" play is to push someone off something like TPTK with a hand that can still win.. if you try to push "good" opponents off overpairs your fold equity just isn't big enough without a read on them as a complete mouse.