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-   -   10/20 JTo river value bet (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=388801)

jason_t 11-30-2005 11:33 PM

10/20 JTo river value bet
 
MP2 is 30/9/1.3 wtsd/w$@sd=32/60 after 500 hands and for the BB I don't have stats but he seemed bad.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, I call, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>

hobbsmann 11-30-2005 11:43 PM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
This looks standard to me. MP2 limps as many bad J's you beat as ones that beat you (J8/J7 vs QJ/KJ) and while it appears with his showdown stats he might not payoff 9s, your 'bad' read on BB makes this a value bet IMO.

DeathDonkey 12-01-2005 12:19 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

-DeathDonkey

sweetjazz 12-01-2005 12:29 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

I like the thin value bet, as you will often get called by worse hands from the BB and we can't say for sure what MP2 will call with, but probably you'll either get paid off by a worse J or maybe even he will choose not to overcall with JT or QJ in this spot. The latter possibility is not that likely, but given his stats, it isn't totally farfetched.

So all in all, a bet could do a lot of good things. Also, MP2 may notice you value-betting a weak hand on the river and may end up paying off a river value bet from you later that he wouldn't have otherwise.

jason_t 12-01-2005 12:30 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

imo, preflop is not close.

QTip 12-01-2005 12:32 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we saying that it becomes a tougher call for MP to make since he'll most likely be overcalling?

CardSharpCook 12-01-2005 12:42 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

imo, preflop is not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason, if the PF isn't close, you should reexamine your starting values. For me, it is a clear fold as well and not one I would give a second thought to.

I don't like betting this river, but that IS close. There are many hands that have been scared into submission by the flsuh board and while you do get a lot of calls from worse hands, I think you may be surprised by a 2P hand that never raised. Let's not forget that the str8 draw either just got there or just gave someone two pair. This is a close one, but I check this down. Give me KJ/AJ, I think I'll bet it.

brettbrettr 12-01-2005 12:45 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

imo, preflop is not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think its that close either, and I wouldn't play it.

QTip 12-01-2005 12:51 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
Jason, if the PF isn't close, you should reexamine your starting values. For me, it is a clear fold as well and not one I would give a second thought to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you please elaborate here?

I'm with JT on this one, especially if the players yet to act are not that aggressive PF. It seems like a mid-connector in position to some limpers is pretty nice. Wish I hadn't lost my old db, but I'm quite certain JTo was a winning hand for me in LP over my last couple hundred thousand...not that that means much.

sweetjazz 12-01-2005 12:58 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is definitely a check behind if the BB is not in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we saying that it becomes a tougher call for MP to make since he'll most likely be overcalling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is possible, but I also think most of the value comes from BB calling with a worse hand and MP2 folding a missed draw (QT, KQ, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9, maybe even KT).

That can make betting right even though I don't think we beat half of the hands MP2 calls with. (Betting seems right to me even if we knew that MP2 won't fold a better or chopped hand.)

DeathDonkey 12-01-2005 01:05 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
I'd like it alot more on the button and with passive blinds. It just isn't much of a hand and in this game some of the players in front will be limping in with dominating hands instead of dominated hands. What did Abdul say about poker players not surviving on straight draws alone? Make it sooted and I raise though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

QTip 12-01-2005 01:19 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like it alot more on the button and with passive blinds. It just isn't much of a hand and in this game some of the players in front will be limping in with dominating hands instead of dominated hands. What did Abdul say about poker players not surviving on straight draws alone? Make it sooted and I raise though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

lol...me too.

This certainly would depend on the quality of the limpers. I've recently started folding hands like QTo and such to good limpers here..especially those not raising AJo PF and so forth.

Do you feel the same about QJo?

I really, really like being connected [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I find it hard to believe, though, that JTo is a losing hand here unless we have a decent chance of being raised.

Entity 12-01-2005 01:57 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a preflop fold (and I'm pretty damn loose) but I really like the rest.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Who the [censored] switched your brain with jason_t's?

Rob

CardSharpCook 12-01-2005 07:28 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
We don't play JTo here because it doesn't have high card value, there is no flush possibility and to make matters worse, we are allowing the blinds to see the flop for free. I hate it when the blinds see it for free because that means that 38o is possible. QJo is actually a raise for me. It does have high card value and it has the delightful position of looking exactly like AK. Any board of AKQJ is good for a PF raised QJ. It is an easy hand to play. too. You get raised on a flop that includes A or K, it is an easy toss.

So that's my beef with JTo. No high card value, we can't create FE, it is hard to play, blinds get to look for free. JTs is a limp in this situation though.

goofball 12-01-2005 08:33 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
No one has done anything, you should keep betting.

BigEndian 12-01-2005 09:18 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
nh

- Jim

stigmata 12-01-2005 09:23 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
I play JTo in LP, although it does depend who is in front/behind, and on table condition. It's been profitable for me so far...

I play it the same.

paperboyNC 12-01-2005 11:21 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
You aren't getting any better hands to fold the river, but you will get called by a lot of worse hands. It's unlikely that either opponent is planning to c/r the river -- they would have likely done that on the turn with the flush and the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is close to a blank.

You'll lose occasionally to KJ and QJ, but should be good &gt;60% of the time.

B Dids 12-01-2005 11:49 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
I fundamentally disagree that JTo is hard to play.

If you know who you're playing, no hand is that hard to play, it just might be hard to make money with it.

I'm not sure I call preflop often, but I do some of the time.

MaxPower 12-01-2005 11:54 AM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
Have you guys ever heard of position?

newhizzle 12-01-2005 02:22 PM

Re: 10/20 JTo river value bet
 
looks standard to me

i think preflop is close


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