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-   -   QQ, is this a fold on the flop? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=388761)

11-30-2005 10:32 PM

QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Did I give up a pot to JJ/QJ/KJ or lower pocket pair, or did I avoid a potentially expensive punishing run by AT/AJ/AA/KK/AK/AQ?

11-30-2005 10:37 PM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
I think most donks would actually slow-play trip-aces. I think you are ahead here a lot. I would not give up on the flop. Bet/call the turn &amp; check/call the river.

Aaron_ 11-30-2005 10:43 PM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
You don't have odds to call if you're behind, and you're certainly reraising if you're ahead. This play depends a whole lot on your read, but if you don't have one, I'd normally give this up.

12-01-2005 12:41 AM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
Thanks, I felt I was too far behind. I had no read so I had no idea if it was a bluff or not. I was worried about trash like AT coming in and making a full house on the turn.

Eeegah 12-01-2005 12:51 AM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You don't have odds to call if you're behind, and you're certainly reraising if you're ahead. This play depends a whole lot on your read, but if you don't have one, I'd normally give this up.

[/ QUOTE ]

(warning: haven't played in over a month)

I think we need to look at why this guy is raising here. He's not raising a flush draw as that would be silly. There's no straight draws either. There's two aces on the flop after you raised and he's telling you he isn't afraid. He can't have a worse two pair. So what's he raising with?

Unless he's a very tricky player, likes to slowplay JJ or is or some other kind of bluffer I'm pretty sure you're behind at least a set of sixes, with either 2 1/2 outs or just a half-out. Either way you probably can't even see the turn. Sucks and it feels weak, but that's my trying-to-be-objective take.

12-01-2005 12:53 AM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't have odds to call if you're behind, and you're certainly reraising if you're ahead. This play depends a whole lot on your read, but if you don't have one, I'd normally give this up.

[/ QUOTE ]

(warning: haven't played in over a month)

I think we need to look at why this guy is raising here. He's not raising a flush draw as that would be silly. There's no straight draws either. There's two aces on the flop after you raised and he's telling you he isn't afraid. He can't have a worse two pair. So what's he raising with?

Unless he's a very tricky player, likes to slowplay JJ or is or some other kind of bluffer I'm pretty sure you're behind at least a set of sixes, with either 2 1/2 outs or just a half-out. Either way you probably can't even see the turn. Sucks and it feels weak, but that's my trying-to-be-objective take.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious? Don't we want to get this to showdown??

Eeegah 12-01-2005 12:59 AM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
We're looking at paying 2 1/2BB to win the 3.25BB in the pot (less rake) and his 2 BB, so 5.25BB total. We'll have to win almost half the time for this to be profitable. You're free to convince me we will, but you'll be a while.

SoftcoreRevolt 12-01-2005 01:06 AM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
Why wouldn't he raise a flush draw? Do we have a read on him that he knows what pot equity is? Of course not.

Donks love to bet and raise flush draws, they don't understand relative position, because they suck. It isn't the most likely holding here, but you'll see raises from people thinking that you don't have an ace and that their 6 is good, or 77-TT on top of the flush draws.

Plus as has been said, slow playing trips and sets is a federal law, he raised the flop.

Eeegah 12-01-2005 01:23 AM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Donks love to bet and raise flush draws, they don't understand relative position, because they suck. It isn't the most likely holding here, but you'll see raises from people thinking that you don't have an ace and that their 6 is good, or 77-TT on top of the flush draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

More than half the time? What you're describing is almost the exact opposite of the passive play I expect from a typical cold-calling donk. The ones I know like to call raises, not make them.

The guy could be doing something screwy, but without anyone coming along for the ride to pad the pot I'd rather let someone else pay up to find out if this guy's a nut.

Or maybe I'm just rusty, who knows.

SoftcoreRevolt 12-01-2005 03:03 AM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
Loose Passive doesn't mean never raises, or even bluffs.

How likely is he to have an Ace? Only two are left, so, are you saying he has an ace here half the time based on one raise and that info? If fish weren't so prone to slow playing hands like this, I'd say that an ace was more likely than a 6 or a flush draw here, but they just are. Add that in and the fact that mid pocket pairs are very likely cold calling hands, and I think we are good here half the time.

With only one ace on the board this situation changes and I'm getting rid of this, since now there's more aces out, and a worse bluffing chance. Fish don't bluff alot, but they do like to make those sort of WPT or WSOP type bets when there's scary boards like that.

This situation is really close though since the pot is so small that its almost a raise or fold situation. But, I think situations like these will see value in just calling because you'll see some odd hands show down.

But in these cases, reads help ever so much. If I've seen him make plays like this with 6s and pockets, I am raising. If I've seen him make bluffs like this, I'd rather just call.

Oh and our Queens will save us 5% of the time too. Woo

12-01-2005 03:04 PM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
I've seen a lot of guy's go crazy with 2 over cards on the board, almost like they figure since two are out there is no way someone has a set. At the very least I'm check calling this down.

12-01-2005 03:13 PM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
:grunch:

It is hard to know without a read on MP3. You could have popped him back on the flop to see if he caps or calls. If he caps, I'd fold the turn UI. If he calls, I'd check/call to the river.

DCWildcat 12-01-2005 03:18 PM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
We need a read. Barring that, I agree with softcore.

Eeegah 12-01-2005 04:37 PM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You could have popped him back on the flop to see if he caps or calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seem to remember a post Ed made a while back about how you gain almost no information by 3-betting to see where you're at. However, if we continue here* I do think this would be an exception. We won't get any info if he calls (he might think your trip aces outkick his), but I can't imagine someone actually capping the flop without trips or a boat.

*Note that I'm not adamantly opposed to continuing here, and in the heat of the hand I probably would. Looking at it objectively, however, I think this is basically a question of what you expect a typical .50/1 Party player to do, which is where I apparently dissent.

12-01-2005 05:43 PM

Re: QQ, is this a fold on the flop?
 
heres a question i have. two people have said someone that would have slowplayed his ace in this situation is a "donk" and a "fish". is this correct thinking?

if he does have an ace, he has a very strong hand. raising just knocked out the dead money behind him that may have potentially called one bet as so many players like to see the turn for one bet no matter what the flop looks like. putting yourself in his shoes, if he does have an ace, its unlikely the pfr has an ace as well, and raising the flop is losing the possibility to raise the later streets. the only good thing i can see is making the potential flush draws pay more to chase their flush.

why in this situation would it be wrong to just call the flop bet and try to bring all the dead money along for one more street?


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