The Double Min Raise
 

Live full ring 5/10 NL; I've got about $1000; opponent has around $1300; we're on the second orbit of the button since I sat down and this is the first pot my opponent has played.

Table folds to me in MP with 8c,8s. I make it $30 to go. Folds to SB who makes it $60. BB folds. I call.

Flop: 8, 10, Q rainbow ($130 in the middle)

SB checks, I bet $125, SB min raises to $250.

Never having played the guy before, the preflop min raise followed by the flop check/min raise confuses me. I decide his most likely holding is AK or AJ but I don't have alot of conviction in that.

Is pushing here with bottom set the optimal play given how the action went down?

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

pushing is fine, he probab has AA/KK

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

I would say the chances of him having AK or AJ are next to zero. Chances are MUCH better that he has AA, KK, QQ or TT.

Ill say
40% AA
30% KK
20% QQ
5% TT
5% anything else.

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

i have been remin raised at 5/10 by Q4o

he could easily have a hand like AJ on this board, btw thats a double gutter and the play makes something similar to sense

i think AA/KK is the most likely but the hands listed are REALLY not the only possibilities

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

call

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
pushing is fine, he probab has AA/KK

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is one of the conventional min-raisers who do what they do to "see where they're at for cheap" and you think he probably has AA/KK, pushing can't be the optimal play.

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

Why not? People who play AA like that dont fold it very often.

He'll be alot more apt to fold it if any card 9 or higher hits the board.

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
pushing is fine, he probab has AA/KK

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a pretty [censored] board for bottom set...I'd ponder a push and pray he is overplaying AQs but I think I have to call to take one off against him if I have NO READ.

Pushing makes so sense here...when is bottom set on a draw heavy board worth $1000 ???

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]


Pushing makes so sense here...when is bottom set on a draw heavy board worth $1000 ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty often, moreso when it is a draw heavy board.

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would say the chances of him having AK or AJ are next to zero. Chances are MUCH better that he has AA, KK, QQ or TT.

Ill say
40% AA
30% KK
20% QQ
5% TT
5% anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks right to me.

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: 8, 10, Q rainbow ($130 in the middle)

SB checks, I bet $125, SB min raises to $250.

Never having played the guy before, the preflop min raise followed by the flop check/min raise confuses me. I decide his most likely holding is AK or AJ but I don't have alot of conviction in that.

Is pushing here with bottom set the optimal play given how the action went down?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe he has AK or AJ, then I don't believe a push is in order. You have him on a four-outer, and most of the other possibilities are as bad or worse (AQ needs runner-runner and KK needs a two-outer). Why set a price that encourages him to muck easily? If I really thought he had AK or AJ, I'd raise $300 back to encourage a bad call. Then, I'd push to a blank on the turn.

If a K or J comes and he bets, I'm calling -- the ten-out redraw comes close to giving you sufficient odds to see the river; if it's a mistake at all, it isn't a huge one. If he checks a K or a J, I need a read to make a good decision, but the default is to bet.

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

how about a minraise!

Re: The Double Min Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would say the chances of him having AK or AJ are next to zero. Chances are MUCH better that he has AA, KK, QQ or TT.

Ill say
40% AA
30% KK
20% QQ
5% TT
5% anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

With no A on board, I might refine this slightly and say AA 35% and KK 35%; I think they play almost indistinguishably in this setting.

I'd probably put a few percent on AK and, oddly, AQ. I've seen the minraise on TPTK often enough to give it some credence here. And an AQ raising an MP raiser happens from time to time, although not so often that the hand is a real contender here.

I don't know how the OP reads this for AJ; I sure wouldn't.

Re: The Double Min Raise - Results
 

"I'd raise $300 back to encourage a bad call."

Pretty close. I actually re-raised him $250. And he made the bad call. A jack fell on the turn. He pushed. I felt like puking. At that point, I knew I was beat but I'd already committed half my stack so I made an equally bad call. He showed me AK.

Pushing to his flop min-reaise probably would have forced him to fold and won me the pot -- that's why I was wondering if anybody else pushes in that situation.

Thanks for everyones input.

Re: The Double Min Raise - Results
 

the key to poker = winning the most pots, so you have to push... make him fold his gut shot instead of bluffing into you on the turn!

Re: The Double Min Raise - Results
 

pot size x frequency = winning poker

duck i DO love you and all but...