Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

So everything worked out fine here and I took down a nice pot. However, the hand got me wondering whether this is a good spot to wait for the turn to protect. The pot is huge, and I think it's likely I can boot out straight draws by raising the turn.


Thoughts? Is it worth forgoing the flop value to protect vs the weaker draws?

READS
Dream table - 4 loose/passives, villain and a couple of TAGS

Villain (pf raiser) is semi-loose/aggressive - 30/13/2 after 200 hands


Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (16.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (11.70 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (14.70 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 16.70 BB.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Yeah, I think that's a very nice spot for it. With your raise on the flop, people with gutshots are still getting about 10-1 immediate odds on the call, more if others call. You have a preflop and flop aggressor to your immediate right, so chances are good he will follow with a bet on the turn and nobody can call between you two.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

You played it fine. You're charging the gutshot straight draws two bets, as well as the flush draws. If you want to wait until the turn (which i wouldn't with this hand, though id be more willing to with a set), be willing to slow down if paint or a spade falls

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I think that's a very nice spot for it. With your raise on the flop, people with gutshots are still getting about 10-1 immediate odds on the call, more if others call. You have a preflop and flop aggressor to your immediate right, so chances are good he will follow with a bet on the turn and nobody can call between you two.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree 100% with this statement, this is a wonderful spot to wait til the turn to raise since even if you do raise this flop all gutshots will be able to call profitably, since a flop raise cannot protect your hand you are better off waiting til the turn to raise. Arguments can be made for raising this flop for value but when the pot gets this big it is critical you play your hand in such a way that gives you the best chance of winning the pot. Wait til the turn to raise and force the gutshots to fold correctly or call incorrectly.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

It's close. When you raise the pot, there is a chance that it gets 3-bet and you can cap. (It's less likely you'll get 3-bet on the turn.) It's also possible that the villain will bet the flop, but check the turn after getting so many callers. (Given that he folded to your flop raise, that looks like quite possible in this particular hand.)

Also, you're generally not going to get gutshots to fold on the turn. The best you can do is to make their calls on the turn unprofitable for them.

So the question is really whether you are getting more value by raising the flop or waiting to raise the turn. If everything works out as you'd like, you'll get a little more value out of waiting for the turn. But anytime you miss a chance to cap the flop (even if MP3 has AK too) or you don't get to raise the turn, you lose quite a bit of value.

I honestly don't think these kind of decisions make or break small stakes players, but I would tend to just raise the flop here.

PS - Many bad players who would actually ditch their gutshots at any point before the river will fold when you raise the flop. They learned a general rule ("don't draw to inside straights") and you profit off of their mistake in this particular hand.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Raise flop, pocket pairs get ~correct odds to call one bet but not 2. Make them pay for 2 outers.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Correct me if my math is wrong,

Say buddy has a gutshot on the flop. Ignoring implied odds he needs 10.5:1 to call.
16.4 sb + bet + raise = 19.4 sb. Add in the original bettor who calls and it's 20.4 sb.

This means the gutshot will be getting just slightly less than 10.5:1 but the implied odds more than cover for it. He also has another chance to correctly call on the turn assuming there is no raise.

This post has been enlightening for me. I think by default I would have folded QJ, QT, or JT here just because it didn't seem right to call a raise with a gutshot. I never bothered to do the math. Note however that because of the 2 spades, the gutshot may in fact only have 3 outs.
--------

As for the hand I like to simply raise the flop. As sweetjazz says
[ QUOTE ]
PS - Many bad players (i guess this includes me)who would actually ditch their gutshots at any point before the river will fold when you raise the flop. They learned a general rule ("don't draw to inside straights") and you profit off of their mistake in this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also may get 3-bet which adds much more value, than making people incorrectly call on the turn would.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if my math is wrong,

Say buddy has a gutshot on the flop. Ignoring implied odds he needs 10.5:1 to call.
16.4 sb + bet + raise = 19.4 sb. Add in the original bettor who calls and it's 20.4 sb.

This means the gutshot will be getting just slightly less than 10.5:1 but the implied odds more than cover for it. He also has another chance to correctly call on the turn assuming there is no raise.

This post has been enlightening for me. I think by default I would have folded QJ, QT, or JT here just because it didn't seem right to call a raise with a gutshot. I never bothered to do the math. Note however that because of the 2 spades, the gutshot may in fact only have 3 outs.
--------

As for the hand I like to simply raise the flop. As sweetjazz says
[ QUOTE ]
PS - Many bad players (i guess this includes me)who would actually ditch their gutshots at any point before the river will fold when you raise the flop. They learned a general rule ("don't draw to inside straights") and you profit off of their mistake in this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also may get 3-bet which adds much more value, than making people incorrectly call on the turn would.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have brought up a very important point, if you believe that the opponents you are playing against will incorrectly fold their gutshots if you raise the flop then by all means raise the flop. In the games I play in it seems that people are much more apt to incorrectly call, then to incorrectly fold, but there are always acceptions.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I think it was alluded to in another post but I think it is important. A raise on the flop not only gives players the odds to call profitably on the flop with their gutshots, but it also gives players the odds to call profitably on the TURN with their gutshots. Some players might fold gutshots to a raise on the flop, but no usually. This is a standard wait for the turn hand. If it is not, I don't know what is.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I think you played it fine. You got two people to fold on the flop (including the initial bettor). What if one of them had a 5? This would have been a bad beat post, and you would have been pissed with yourself for not raising that flop.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I probably wait and raise the Turn for value unless a Spade hits.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I disagree with the posters that prefer to wait for the turn, and think you should definitely raise the flop.

Yes, you miss the chance to fold out the gutshots, but I would not expect these hands (Only three: JT, QJ, QT) to be that common in this hand that was threebet preflop, and you do not lose very much equity against them anyway (smallish overlay on the flop and turn calls). Folding gutshots becomes much more critical on for example a JTx board.

Since the pot is huge you actually need to put pressure on even weaker hands to fold. You should raise to fold any pair or PP with a spade.

Of course raising the flop also builds the pot, which has value (even if we prefer weak draws to fold, the major part of additional money into the pot is our EV).

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I'm not going to commit to raising or waiting, but a few points to consider in favor of raising the flop:

1. How vulnerable is our hand, and do we have redraws?
2. Are your opponents always going to have gutshots? If not, is there any reason to wait?
3. What exactly are the odds you are giving your opponents on the flop and the turn, and are they that much different?
4. Just because you make it so a gutshot should fold the turn doesn't mean you have done something magically profitable. If he almost has the odds to call, then you probably haven't gained that much value on the turn, and likely could have gotten more by just raising the flop.
5. Will your opponent always bet the turn, giving you the chance to raise?

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I don't wait for the turn here. I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop. Here we have 4 (!) opponents, 3 of whom called 2 cold preflop, and a preflop raiser. I figure they might call 2 cold on this flop now that I have a flop donkbet from MP3. The pot is big and I feel fortunate to have such a good hand and such a fortuitous donkbet on this flop. So I raise the flop and 3/4 of them call. That's fine, makes the pot bigger and I'm still a huge favorite unless I get popped on the turn by a flush or a slowplayed 77. I figure there to be a flush draw, QJ/JT (diamonds or spades) in the worst case and maybe hands like KJ/KQ/AQ/AJ etc. going along thinking they have odds to hit trips or two pair. With all these opponents against me, I'm thinking that there are a certain number of cards and card combinations that might beat me, and the pot is so big I don't want to lose the hand to TT/99 or QJ when one of these collective outs appears on the turn or river. I guess this is called protecting the pot. Something to notice is that someone with 99 would have the implied odds to hit a set with nearly 20-1 odds on the flop. I want to clean out cards that beat me, no matter how unlikely it is for them to hit. Unless we are 2-3 handed, I want them to fold 99. I want QJ/JT out because if both those hands are out there then there are 6-8 bad cards to give them the straight, not to mention the spades and backdoor flushes. Part of the reason I want to raise is because I think these 4 outer hands will call the raise. But if they fold QJ, I'm not unhappy at all. I'd hate to have that hand hit on the turn and then lose a big pot instead of winning a big pot because I didn't shut out the QJ with a flop raise.

There are also hands like KQ that might go along for the ride on the flop but not on the turn no matter what the flop action was. They would call one or two on the flop but never get past the turn unless they hit trips/two pair. So you get less bets from these people by waiting for the turn. They don't want to pay on the expensive street when it looks like they are badly beat after the flop action - hands like KQ/KJ/AT/AJ. Some of the time they will call anyway trying to hit that miracle on the river ( after you've made the pot is so big with the flop raise) and you collect bets both on the flop and on the turn. A turn raise just shuts out the hands you want calling, when you could have raised the flop, collected more bets, and then given them the temptation of calling for 1 bet on the turn instead of 2.

Also, you have to think about the likelihood of the flop bettor continuing on the turn after he was called in so many spots on the flop. Thing is, the bettor might have to have a set to bet again on the turn, cause AQ will check more often than not, despite having been only called and not raised on the flop. So much of the time, the "wait to raise on the turn" doesn't work out very well because you will have to bet out on the turn, and then if a "bad" card hits you will have to check, often with the best hand.
In waiting for the turn you have to hope that something like a Q,J,T or spade don't hit, because then you are in a confusing situation. You have to go into check/call or bet/call mode which is uncomfortable and makes river decisions more difficult. After raising the flop, you will usually only get raised on the turn by a better hand, and then you can call with odds to hit your boat on the river. Maybe there is some math that says to wait for the turn, but then you have to plug in so many variables about the likely hands out there and their willingness to call raises on the flop vs. turn, etc. It may be close either way, but instinctually I raise the flop and cap it if 3-bet because I have a good hand in a big pot and I want to take it down. I don't care if I'm allowing people to call "correctly" with their gutshots or whatever. Calling 2 cold on the flop is much less favorable for my opponents than calling one small bet. I want to have control over the hand so that I don't have to deal with any surprises when any potential bad card hits.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Adding to what jake says to consider, raising the flop may induce some players to improperly fold gutshots.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Raise now (on the flop) when you are ahead and charge everyone. Do you really want to wait for the turn with someone potentially sitting on a 4-flush? A check-raise (3-bet) by someone on a spade turn will suck big time.

Plus, who cares about protecting your hand anyways in this pot. No spade draw is folding. And those inside draws can chase away all they want.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I would raise the flop.

1. Your hand is very, very strong. Not only is it almost certainly the best hand at the moment (save exactly 77), but you have four outs to the effective nuts. Your equity here is massive. You are making tons and tons on every bet that goes into the pot on the flop and turn. In my opinion, playing in such a way that you minimize the number of bets going in total (as waiting until the turn almost certainly does) is actually going to cost you a considerable amount more value than the value you losing by giving up a few razor-thin value calls to gutshot hands and so forth.

2. Raising likely gets you more action. Opponents will call two cold on the flop with tons of crap and fold for two cold on the turn. While you note that gutshots may be getting marginally correct odds to call on both streets is we raise the flop instead of the turn, consider:

a. Raising the flop and the betting the turn only allows your opponents a couple of opportunities to make neutral or marginally profitable calls. Unless action gets crazy on the flop (in which case protection becomes totally impossible) nowhere will opponents with gutshots (or lesser draws) being making hugely profitable calls.

b. Calling the flop and raising the turn allows your opponents to play the hand totally perfectly in the vast majority of situations. Most any reasonable hand will have odds to call one on the flop, but not to call two on the turn. Therefore, many opponents will correctly play both streets. Raising the flop and betting the turn at least allows your opponents to make mistakes: maybe a gutshot barely getting odds makes a bad fold, or a hand like TT makes a bad flop peel, and so forth.

3. The turn card is really not that likely to greatly increase our equity. A broadway card or a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] may sometimes put us behind, but often it won't (in fact, usually a broadway card will not make anyone's gutshot, and a good percentage of the time no one has two spades). One of the primary reasons I like waiting until the turn is when our flop equity is not particularly well defined, and the turn card will greatly increase the clarity of the pot. That is not the case here, as our equity is huge and no turn card is going to significantly increase our equity.

4. Other things to consider include some comments by Jake and Bob, particularly concerning the fact that there is no gaurentee that the turn gets bet if we don't raise the flop (note that that scenario is an absolute disaster from every perspective), and concerning the high percentage of the time that our opponents don't even have the draws we're worried about.



So, in other words, I think a lot of you are really overthinking this hand. We have a monster, and we need to extract value. In a huge pot where protection is difficult, sacrificing obvious value for marginal improvements in protection is really not the right way to go.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Wouldn't we be more inclined to raise the flop with a set? I'd think our equity edge would be signigicantly higher, and we're happy to have plenty of CC'ers.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I think waiting for the turn is perfect here. Flush draws will come along anyway. Your main concern here IS gutshots and weak draws. Waiting for the turn is the ONLY thing you can do to protect your hand here. This pot is big. Focus on winning it, not extracting every last cent from it.

Winning this big pot more often is going to be way more profitable than sacrificing the entire thing in order to get in a few extra small bets on the flop.

Yes, its not guaranteed that the turn will be bet but its very likely that it will. You must take this risk.

Also, you're equity can change a lot based on what the turn card is. Your hand will eat up the equity of the gutshots and weak draws that you knock out. Also, any flush draw's equity will drop top ~20% when no spade comes on the turn. You will most likely pick up most of this equity as well. Not to mention if a dangerous card comes on the turn, you save bets AND you can call profitably for a full house draw.

Getting extra BB on the turn when you have more equity is clearly more profitable than a few extra SB on the flop IMO.

Like an earlier poster said, if this isn't a perfect example of waiting for the turn, I don't know what is.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I've said it once, but I'll say it in digest form:

1. In general more bets go in by raising the flop. Waiting for the turn is not really a "value play."

2. Everyone is very skewed in their concepts of pot protection. I think it's helpful to think about how much we are giving up by failing to protect our hand:

Let's take a gutshot for an example:

Let's say we raise, one guy cold calls, and it's up to "Dude with Gutshot" (DwG). DwG is getting a little less than 11.5-1. Needing 10.5-1 to call, he calls correctly. But how bad is his call here for us , really? He's making like 8-9% or so on his 1 BB investment, meaning that allowing him to call is sacrificing no more than like .1 BB. Since we don't have claim to all of that, the amount he might actually be "taking from us" by calling correctly here is something like .08 BB.

If he makes a similar call on the turn getting something like 14-1, his call is more profitable, but we're still losing less than like 1/3 of a BB.

Compare those relatively tiny losses that we incur by allowing gutshots to make marginally profitable calls the to the amount we lose by failing to give our hand the proper action and killing our turn action by making it easy for everyone to fold.

3. People need to realize what a MONUMENTAL DISASTER it is if we don't raise the flop and it's checked to us on the turn. The likelihood of this happening is almost enough in itself to convince me that it's better to raise the flop.

4. Waiting till the turn makes much, much more sense when you average flop equity is lower . Our flop equity is huge here.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Nice clear post Deranged. I attempted to make a similar argument when I wasn't so clear as to what I was saying. Reading your post makes it clear to me that this is definitely not a situation where you would wait until the turn because as you say: "We have a monster, and we need to extract value. In a huge pot where protection is difficult, sacrificing obvious value for marginal improvements in protection is really not the right way to go."

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

My answer was correct, but my thought process was no where near this level.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. Waiting until the turn makes much more sense in situations where we aren't sure whether we have a lot of equity or not, and seeing a turn card will greatly define the strength of our hand. With monsters, pushing immediately is usually correct.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad. I think when I wrote that I meant that in general I will wait for the turn to put in a raise with a set. But that doesn't at all apply to this particular hand and situation.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad. I think when I wrote that I meant that in general I will wait for the turn to put in a raise with a set. But that doesn't at all apply to this particular hand and situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Though it's off-topic, if you're always waiting until the turn to put in a raise with a set, in my opinion you're probably making a mistake like 80% of the time. Considering playing more aggressively on the flop with sets. I think you might like the results, particularly in multiway pots.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

haha. good point. I often raise the flop with sets, probably more often than I should. Ironically the one thing that I'm now trying to incorporate in my game is waiting for the turn more often. I want to be able to identify these situation more clearly because I often jam the flop and worry that I'm losing money because of it.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I agree that you should NOT wait until the turn to raise. For you to be willing to forego your flop equity, 2 factors need to be in effect:

1) You need to know that villian is going to bet the turn. I think that he is about 50% or less to bet the turn here.

2) You need to know what your "scare" cards are to know when to slow down on the turn. Clearly the spade is a scare card. however, a Q, J, or T could be bad, but is more likely to be very good, as it makes someone a worse 2 pair. If you don't know whether to slow down on paint, the flop call loses a LOT of value.

Finally, your flush callers are going to profitably call all the way, whatever you do. While the nut flush caller may profit from each additional bet, he's not making the money from you as you have equity as well. At least one person out there is probably drawing dead and providing you with equity.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. Waiting until the turn makes much more sense in situations where we aren't sure whether we have a lot of equity or not, and seeing a turn card will greatly define the strength of our hand. With monsters, pushing immediately is usually correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hypothetical: What if instead of A-Ko, the Hero held A-Qo on this flop? Are we getting close to wait-until-the-turn territory then?

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I see your point but I disagree. Your analysis only takes into account 1 person with a weak draw, DwG. I think you must try to protect here against any hand with 6 outs or less. You didn't take into account any of these hands. You gained at most 3.5 SB on the flop. Winning this pot more often (even if its only 5% more often) will MORE than surpass this.

I'll say it again, the pot is larger, we should be trying to win it rather than extract every last SB.

Also, read on MP3 is aggressive. He also was raiser PF. I'm almost certain if you had just called on the flop MP3 would have bet this a large amount of the time. I think seeing him fold to the reraise may be influencing the estimation of the amount of times he will bet the turn if just called on the river.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Not really. Your play is fine.

Waiting until the turn is generally best when people are going to have draws with 4-6 outs against you. That's just not going to be the case here. They are either going to have 9 outs with a flush draw or 0-3 otherwise. So just ram and jam.

Will

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

If your one goal was to protect against a gutshot straight draw then you should probably go for the turn raise, but there are more hands that can beat you than just those, and more importantly, those hands are much more likely. I'm talking about hands like the naked Q/K of spades, sevens, and pocket pairs. These are hands that can either call profitably or almost profitably for one bet but can't do so for two.
From a value standpoint I find that no one will ever fold an ace and usually won't fold any other pair if I just raise the flop. Then, they call the turn because the pot is big, and if they have an ace or sometimes even a king/worse (since these people are bad) they pay to see it on the river. And a hand like AQ-AT is hard to get away from here in a pot of this size. But when you raise the turn, even the poorer players can see the light that their hand is no good, and so you get half a bet out of them instead of three. You get a very large portion of these bets, far more than you lose to the guy with the gutshot who is costing you a few tenths of a BB with his calls.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

[ QUOTE ]

If your one goal was to protect against a gutshot straight draw then you should probably go for the turn raise, but there are more hands that can beat you than just those, and more importantly, those hands are much more likely. I'm talking about hands like the naked Q/K of spades, sevens, and pocket pairs. These are hands that can either call profitably or almost profitably for one bet but can't do so for two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another very important point which I was just about to comment on. Good post.

If the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] had been the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I would be more likely to wait for the turn, since now gutshots become likely and dangerous. Right now, we CAN protect our hand on the flop from hands like pocket pairs, which are a more likely danger to us, as you point out.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I'm suggesting you protect against anyone who has 2-6 outs against you. Gutshot or whatever. Wouldn't you rather protect your hand against someone who will draw out 11% of the time over protecting against someone who draws out 2 or 3% of the time?

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

The whole point is that you can't protect against 6 outs on the flop...you have to wait until the turn to do so.

But on this board there aren't really any six out draws, just a bunch of 2-3 out draws. Raising the flop will protect your hand against really weak draws, so raising the flop is correct.

Will

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

DreamShatter

I think your goal is to maximize your EV.IMO your going to
win more chips(maximize EV) by raising the flop. The pot is so big that most hands are going to call 2 bets on the flop.
This will tie them in on the turn since the pot has become so big.However,raising the turn is probably the best way to limit the field and maximize your chances of winning the pot.But i think your goal in poker is to win chips not pots.

Also, the more vulnerable your hand the more inclined you should be to waiting until the turn.The less vulnerable your hand the more you should want to raise.Your hand has to much pot equity to wait. Ice

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

i see your point.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

Great question. Good analysis of the math. BUT, no mention of the psychology! Since everyone expects folks to wait until the Turn before betting a set, coming hard on the Flop represents a weaker hand - like Top Pair or Two Pair. Your opponents are much more likely to stay with you to the showdown. By taking a smaller amount on the Flop, ya get more in the long run. This play is similar to a semi-bluff.

Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?
 

I agree that NOT waiting for the turn is the best play.

Waiting for the turn is a VALUE play.

If there is a gutshot out there, we can't protect against it on the flop. Gutshot only holds ~8% equity.
8% equity on the turn is going to be = to about 1BB (8% of 10BB). But if a safe card falls on the turn, Hero's equity will be at ~70%. So 70% of the BB that the GS would have donated is Hero's; making the value in folding out the GS worth roughly .3BB or .6sb.

Hero's equity on the flop is ~60%. So Hero only needs to make an extra 1 sb by raising the flop to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

Waiting for the turn (as W.Deranges points out) is for hands whose equity is unclear and likely lower.

But the common misconception is that waiting for the turn is to fold Gutshots.
<font color="blue">Yes. Partly. But it is also to fold hands like bottom and middle pair as well. These hands will generally have 5 outs against Hero (1pr hand) and are MORE dangerous to Hero than a 4 out gutshot. For each of these hands folded, Hero's hand will gain in value by ~10% in equity. Well worth the trade off in lost flop value.</font>

<font color="red">People who wait for the turn in this hand and when they have sets - hate money.</font>