a hand has got me thinking
 

so, I played this hand last night against a solid 2p2er. I'm wondering what you guys think about it b/c it seems tricky as hell to me. This isn't the exact hand, but food for thought.

Anyways, hero has A9o in the bb. Live 4/8 game, I think we're 7 handed at this point. Could be 8, could be 6 but I'm pretty sure its at least 7.

Villan (brettbrettr) raises in UTG +1. Brett can be out of line, but seems to be playing solid hands tonight.

SB, a tight/passive type player calls from the SB. He hasn't been playing many hands tonight, stuck, running bad etc. His call is meaningful, brett thinks. Not sure if Hero agrees.

So, BB calls with A9o. (Thoughts?)

Anyways, 3 to the flop for 6 sbs: Ad2s3s

What's hero's flop plan? Bear in mind that Hero knows that villan will bet this flop with very nearly 100% of his holdings when checked to.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

hero should have folded pre-flop but if he thinks that his Ace could easily be good, he should play it wa/wb and bet the river.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

Hero should check the flop.

Making a plan for the entire hand based only on preflop action and the flop cards is extremely overrated. Use the information available to you at every step.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I think BB should just muck Preflop unless he feels that Villain is screwing around. He also has tight SB to worry about.

Postflop my line would be check/call, check/call if possible. I think we're WA/WB against both players.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

Yeah, I think hero is pretty much screwed, so, fold PF.
On the flop, I could see checking to see how SB reacts to your autobet. I could also see betting out since I do not think you would raise this flop without a better hand. Of course you're going to expect villian to C/R his real hands in this spot, so I dunno, it sucks.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I'd check/call the flop.

If the turn went check/check/bet/call, I'd fold.

If the turn went check/check/bet/fold, I'd still want to fold.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

WA/WB. I'm check-calling one bet on the flop and folding if the SB check-raises. After that my play depends on whether the SB sticks around, but the general idea is going to be check-call/check-call and then bet the river.

Will

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
WA/WB. I'm check-calling one bet on the flop and folding if the SB check-raises. After that my play depends on whether the SB sticks around, but the general idea is going to be check-call/check-call and then bet the river.

Will

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you calling a river raise from Brett? Remember, Brett knows this line too:)

This is what I thought was so interesting abou the hand, by the way. I guess I presented the hand like [censored], but assuming its 3 handed on the river, and you donk the river, and brett raises, wtf?

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I don't know the specific players, but assuming this is the game I am familiar with and making certain assumptions about the players identities --

On the flop, if SB checks:
I check-call if SB calls
I check-fold if SB check-raises
I check-raise if SB folds

If SB bets out, I probably call (possibly fold) but expect to fold to a raise from PFR or on the turn UI.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I concur about folding preflop, however, given the call:

I think check the flop, consider folding if SB bets out. If UTG+1 bets, raise, to hopefully eliminate SB. If SB comes along, be affraid.

The turn is probably a bet/fold.

River, I'm kind of unsure about.

Maybe just doing a standard WA/WB line is better........

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
...but assuming its 3 handed on the river, and you donk the flop, and brett raises, wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...but assuming its 3 handed on the river, and you donk the flop, and brett raises, wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

He actually makes a valid point. There is more than one WA/WB line and if I opted to do that here I would not bet the river - he's probably not calling with an underpair anyway.
I could see check/folding the river because he will always value bet bigger Aces and check behind with KK-77 or whatever.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...but assuming its 3 handed on the river, and you donk the flop, and brett raises, wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

I edited it. Its "donk the river."

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know the specific players, but assuming this is the game I am familiar with and making certain assumptions about the players identities --

On the flop, if SB checks:
I check-call if SB calls
I check-fold if SB check-raises
I check-raise if SB folds

If SB bets out, I probably call (possibly fold) but expect to fold to a raise from PFR or on the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see how check-raising the flop would ever really be correct.

If you do that and then bet the turn, brett is usually either raising the turn or folding the turn, and very rarely calling down with a worse hand.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

Forgot to mention, I'm just c-cing the river if it's still three-handed at that point.

And now that I think about it, since it's brett and we know each other I don't really like running an exploitable river line. So forget what I said earlier - I'm just gritting my damn teeth and check-calling.

Will

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I got an idear...

I think check-calling the flop is definitely right. Check-raising basically just spews against better As and encourages underpairs to fold. Betting the flop has a similar effect but has the added problem of putting us in confusing spots if brett just calls and doesn't even net the 1 sb check-raising does if brett just puts on a good read and folds his JJ on the flop or whatever...

The other thing I think is important to realize is that brett is probably not value-betting the river with anything less than an A here, and he may well not call the river with an underpair if we take a wa/wb line (if he's really feeling spikey he might raise the river with less than an A though...) So I'm thinking that the correct river line probably involves check-folding.

I don't think, though, that we can check-fold the turn with that much confidence unless the SB calls in front of us (then I think we have a pretty easy fold).

So I'm deciding between two things:

1. Bet-fold the turn and then check-fold the river if called.
2. Check-call but don't overcall the turn and then check-fold the river.

The advantage of #1 is that I think I have an easier time making the river fold after I've shown some aggression on the turn, and it prevents the turn from checking through if in fact we are ahead and brett decides not to bet his underpair or something because he figures that when he gets two calls on the flop he is beat.

The advantage of #2 is that it doesn't give brett an opportunity to get away from the hand easy on the turn and may allow us to get away from the hand cheaply if the brett bets and the SB calls.

Since our hand isn't vulnerable to overcards and because I'd like to avoid spewing even 1 bb when running third, I think I prefer check-calling the turn.


So this is an opportunity for the rarely seen: check-call, check-call, check-fold.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I was thinking about the check/fold river approach also, especially if the SB was still in.

(Although I think over-calling on the turn would be bad anyway, so I would rarely find myself in this spot 3-handed on the river.)

This is a tough river to play.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]

This is a tough river to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree and I'm sorry if it took me two posts too many to get there. Many things suck about this hand.

(In real life, the big bet streets were way different, but that doesn't change the nature of the excercise.)

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know the specific players, but assuming this is the game I am familiar with and making certain assumptions about the players identities --

On the flop, if SB checks:
I check-call if SB calls
I check-fold if SB check-raises
I check-raise if SB folds

If SB bets out, I probably call (possibly fold) but expect to fold to a raise from PFR or on the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see how check-raising the flop would ever really be correct.

If you do that and then bet the turn, brett is usually either raising the turn or folding the turn, and very rarely calling down with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Will,

Let's think about this. What is your line if SB was never in the hand? Do you fold preflop? For argument sake, lets say you didn't and we get the flop of Ad2s3s. Is this a hand that you will check-call all the way to the river (or donk bet on the river)?

I have been trying to work through the various scenarios on paper (CR vs. CC asssuming SB folds on the flop) and I am getting myself a little bogged down by my assumptions about how Brett will react based on the hands he might have. Does he fold JJ/QQ/KK immediately to the flop raise? On the turn? When will he get aggressive with a better Ace (AJ/AQ)? On the turn? Never?

I think a check-raise on the flop might lessen our losses but it also hurts our potential gains... I am not sure where the balance is. Might it also help us avoid folding the winning hand?

Anyway, your mind is sharper and younger (although mine is probably just as juvenile), so maybe you can come up with answers that I can't.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

This is a good discussion b/c my thoughts too, FWIW, is that if sb folds, I'd check-raise. Once he calls, everything gets fuct.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I could see you working, I was just confused with some of the wording before you made some edits.

Basically the way I would play this hand, if I made the pre-flop call, would be to check and call the flop, check and call (but not overcall) the turn, and then check the river and hope it gets checked through.

The river is obviously the crappy part.

I don't want to bet/fold because of the fear that the villian may see through this and stick it to me w/ KK, QQ, etc. (Although making this play takes some stones and it might not happen as much as I'm imagining, even against someone familiar with this approach. If this is actually the case maybe this is the way to go. I dunno.)

I don't want to bet/call because he might stick it to me w/ AK, AQ, etc.

If I made this call before the flop I would check and call the river and admit to being his bitch when he takes the pot.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
Basically the way I would play this hand, if I made the pre-flop call, would be to check and call the flop, check and call (but not overcall) the turn, and then check the river and hope it gets checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the river is a check-fold, but I'm in a privledged situation as I know what I'd do because I'm me. Basically, if I don't have an ace, I'm not even betting the turn against two opponents. No way. I'm not even sure that betting it against one on that flop is great, but I'd do it. But after I get called by these two guys on the flop, I see no reason to bet this turn. Hence, if I bet the river, it would really be for value.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

If we knew this then check-folding the turn is the way to go, and I wouldn't have a problem if someone advocated that.

I guess this is a good example of why I wouldn't play A9 in this spot.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I woudln't play A9 here either. Even if it is 7 handed, the raiser is still an EP guy.

Can you see anything wrong with my "I'm not putting in any bets past the flop if both call" if I don't have an ace? I'm trying to balance not being weak with not spewing. Sometimes it works. Others....

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good discussion b/c my thoughts too, FWIW, is that if sb folds, I'd check-raise. Once he calls, everything gets fuct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody wants to consider the check-raise further -- so I will add this:

I would also check-raise with A2o and K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here and I assume Brett would consider those possibilities -- now is a check raise (if SB goes away) any better?

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I don't know why you'd play A2o here.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

I think in the long haul a check-raise in this situation is going to be a money loser.

I just think the chances of being 3-bet are too great, and if that doesn't happen this can easily turn into a 3-barrel bluff that just gets called down.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why you'd play A2o here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean preflop? If so, you have a point -- so make it A2s, non-spade (that may be borderline but a more likely call).

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

If only the BB called the flop bet I would probably bet again on the turn without an Ace for a couple reasons.

1. He shouldn't have Ax.
2. There's a spade draw out there.

Actually, I'm more concerned about reason number 2 than 1.

If this was a rainbow board checking the turn seems okay, especially if it's just you and him, because he can't really have any draw you're worried about at that point.

(And also I don't know what we're holding. If we had QQ or KK, okay, but with TT or JJ I'm not so sure.)

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good discussion b/c my thoughts too, FWIW, is that if sb folds, I'd check-raise. Once he calls, everything gets fuct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't particularly like check-raising the flop heads-up in this pot either unless there were severe metagame considerations that led me to do it (like I'd played 10 similar hands against this guy in the past week and yada yada yada...)

The reason is that I think check-raising the flop basically makes it possible for Brett to play the hand perfectly because check-raising is almost like turning your hand face up on the felt.

If you check-raise, Brett most likely is going to give you credit for an A unless he has some specific reason to believe you'd do this with a lesser hand (intending to fold out a hand like JJ).

So once you check-raise with an A, Brett has you where he wants you: If he has a big A (AK or AQ), he can wait and really make you pay (I think the sweetest line in that case would be to call the turn and then raise the river to avoid giving you an easy spot to fold). If he has a medium a (AJ, ATs or something) he'll probably just call down and take an effective wa/wb line himself. If he doesn't have an A, he'll probably fold early and not pay you off.

The only way in which I can see check-raising this river to be correct is if you have a reason to believe that Brett will often not give you credit for an A. In other words, from a game-theoretic perspective, check-raising with an A only really makes sense if you are also going to check-raise without an A with some frequency. If you know that Brett knows that you are capable of doing so, check-raising becomes a much more viable line because Brett is now much more likely to call you down without an A.

Also, we should note that check-raising the flop isn't great from a "cut your losses perspective." Brett may well not raise the turn and give you an easy opportunity to fold. Even if he does, you still put in 2 BB and not even gotten to a showdown to figure out your beat, whereas 2.5 BB will get you to a showdown and let you see all 5 community cards.

So I really don't like any line other than check-calling the flop. After that it becomes more interesting, as I think there may be some value to a turn donk-bet (basically you confuse Brett, maybe get him to call down a medium pair, maybe slow him down from really punishing you with a bigger A, maybe discourage him from value betting the river if you decide to check that street, and so on). My suspicion though is that checking the turn will probably be correct as well though.

One of the tough things about this hand is because of your position and the board texture, it'll often be quite hard for you to win more than 1.5 BB or so when ahead. That is the number to shoot for, in my opinion. If the hand ends up playing out: check-call flop, turn gets checked through, and you value bet the river and Brett calls; in my opinion that is a pretty good outcome for the hand.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't particularly like check-raising the flop heads-up in this pot either unless there were severe metagame considerations that led me to do it (like I'd played 10 similar hands against this guy in the past week and yada yada yada...)

The reason is that I think check-raising the flop basically makes it possible for Brett to play the hand perfectly because check-raising is almost like turning your hand face up on the felt.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I think this is precisely the case here. This is a regular game that has a fairly consistent set of participants -- several of them 2+2ers. If I check-raised with A9o here, I might also check-raise with a powerful drawing hand like K4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or two pair (A2s). While I would not necessarily check-raise any of these hands against a relatively unknown good player, I think you must do that with some frequency against a player who knows you well. Your logic is correct if the only hand that you would check-raise here is a moderate strength Ace.

In Brett's position and against unknowns I would be wary with any Ace other than AK. During my recent Vegas trip, I have found that many mid-limit players will call with AK from the blinds (particularly if they are not suited and particularly against an EP raiser) rather than reraise. If Brett has an AQ/AJ type hand, he can be in a world of hurt against a cold-calling AK in the blinds who checkraises.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

Thanks Will, good points.

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

check raise

Re: a hand has got me thinking
 

haven't u missed 3) check call all the way and extract maximum value from KK-1010 and lose the minimum to AK.