PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

Sorry I'm missing the full hand history, but here's the pokerhand equity comparison:

Flop - Kh 4c Tc

Cards:
4s Ad Ah 8h scoop-313 HIwin-356 LOwin-27 EV-.423
3s 5c 2c 4h scoop-440 HIwin-464 LOwin-179 EV-.577

Without getting too much into the context of the hand, I raised PF in EP with the AAxx, got heads up vs LAG button, potted flop, and was put all in by LAG holding the wheel cards.

When I ran the equity comparison, I was surprised to see how potent his hand was, considering there's only 1 low card on the flop - is his flush draw really that powerful?

If I were the LAG button playing against the EP raiser (and pegged EP on AAxx), I probably wouldn't put him all-in in this spot since I'd never guess I'm almost 60/40 with only one low card on the board. Am I missing something here?

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

Off the cuff estimate. A little less than 40% equity is the flush draw, his runner/runner low has to be at least 7-10%, and he has 4 more outs than you to make a hand (2 pair) bigger than yours. That is another 15% or so, plus he has straight draws. What is killing your equity is that you have so few cards that will improve your hand.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

I agree with mendacious. You are essentially looking for the board to pair for u 2 have ur high 2 pair. If I put someone on AA and dont think that they have the Ac or a flush draw then heads up this is worth-while to take. He has a ton of outs to improve and beat you. Side note: I dont like being the first one raising EP with AAxx, you're out of position and people can peg you on having AAxx, which is always a significant disadvantage.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

EV isn't all that should be looked at when you're playing pot limit

despite equity, all the draws for hand #2 suck and it's never clear where you stand.

that simulator can't take into account the # of times you get moved off your 5 high flush, among other things

interesting post for limit O/8 maybe though

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

Trader - Very interesting.

I thought you must have copied something incorrectly and so I ran the same hands using Wilson.
flop...Kh4cTc
auto stop point...10000 deals
hand.........high..low...scoop..total
4sAdAh8h...288...145...3812...4245
3s5c2c4h....145...288...5322...5755

Best high hands on river:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair...........4026..........1542
two pair......3988..........3542
trips..........1213...........359
straight.........0...........460
flush...........435..........3839
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
total.........10000.........10000

Winning high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair............845.............0
two pair......2285..........1273
trips...........485.............0
straight.........0...........403
flush...........435..........3672
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
total..........4388..........5577

Losing high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair...........3181..........1542
two pair......1703..........2269
trips...........728...........359
straight.........0............51
flush.............0...........167
full house.......0.............0
quads.............0.............0
total..........5612..........4388

Looking it over, yes it was the baby flush draw that pushed 3s5c2c4h ahead of 4sAdAh8h in the high wins category.

My ratio, using Wilson, is 5755/4245 = 1.356,
not quite the same as 577/423 = 1.364, but close. I'd get a different ratio if I ran the same sim again using Wilson, because of the random deal way Wilson accumulates the data. Might be a bit higher than your ratio next time. Or if I made the auto stop point 100,000 instead of 10,000 the ratio would probably be closer to 1.364. Whatever.

The power of the baby flush draw!

At any rate, who'd have thunk it? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Buzz

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

I see the AAxx hand suited in hearts with an A-hi draw
I see the 2345 hand suited in clubs with a 5-hi draw
Then i see the 5-hi flush winning in flushes way more often.
something doesn't make sense to me here

and why does the AA4x hand make 0 straights in 10,000 hands -- you are never ever dealt 2,3,5 by river?

-g

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see the AAxx hand suited in hearts with an A-hi draw
I see the 2345 hand suited in clubs with a 5-hi draw
Then i see the 5-hi flush winning in flushes way more often.
something doesn't make sense to me here

and why does the AA4x hand make 0 straights in 10,000 hands -- you are never ever dealt 2,3,5 by river?

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop has already been specified: Kh4cTc. This is why the 5 high flush is winning so much more than the heart flush and it is impossible at this point for a 235 to end up on the board.

Correction
 

Rats! Will I never stop making these stupid little errors?

I wrote

Winning high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair............845.............0
two pair......2285..........1273
trips...........485.............0
straight.........0...........403
flush...........435..........3672
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
total..........4388..........5577

Change that to
Winning high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair............845.............0
two pair......2285..........1273
trips...........485.............0
straight.........0...........40<font color="red">9</font>
flush...........435..........3672
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
<font color="red">straight flush...0.............29</font>
total..........4388..........<font color="red">5612</font>

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
something doesn't make sense to me here

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - Good eyes. Thanks.

I've corrected my error.

Sorry.

Buzz

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

What kind of equity does the 5 4 3 2 hand based off of the straight possibilities alone?

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
The power of the baby flush draw!


[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter how high the flush draw is. If you had one pair, the nut flush draw and some backdoor low/straight possibilities you'd think you were doing fine against aces. The reason the hand is bad in general is because you might be up against a better flush draw, or to a lesser extent a better backdoor low/two pair made.

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but some people are amazed by the power of the "baby" flush draw.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't matter how high the flush draw is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Round Tower - The higher the better, I would think.

[ QUOTE ]
The reason the hand is bad in general is because you might be up against a better flush draw, or to a lesser extent a better backdoor low/two pair made.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you're refering to the 2345s hand.

I ran a sim against against 10000 random hands (one at a time).

hand....high....low..scoop...total
2345s....240...1279...3260...4779
random..1280....231...3710...5221

So 2345s doesn't do well against inknown cards, one-on-one. And 2345s does even worse when heads up against AA48s.

hand....high....low..scoop...total
2345s....608....812...2220...3640
AA48s....804....600...4956...6360

It's just this particular flop (or a similar flop) that makes a favorable situation for 2345s.

Seems to me that's the way it usually is. The quality of the starting hand doesn't matter as much as how well the hand fits with the flop.

I'm not saying the quality of the starting hand isn't important. It is. You have a better chance of catching a fit with the flop and going on to triumph if you have a quality starting hand.

But as soon as you see the flop, the flop fit is what assumes primary importance.

[ QUOTE ]
some people are amazed by the power of the "baby" flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was sort of joking, but I do think that having suited cards rather than a rainbow hand makes a difference. The higher the flush or flush draw the better, but even a baby flush is better than no flush - and that's especially true, I think, when you have what is primarily a low draw hand. If you make a baby flush along with your low, you often end up with a scooper or 3/4 hand.

I'm certainly not suggesting drawing to baby flushes against multiple opponents. But a baby flush draw does add equity.

At any rate, isn't it interesting how much the baby flush draw adds here, when one-on-one? Seems to turn everything around, making the 2345s hand the favorite over the mighty AA48s hand.

When one-on-one before the flop, if you flop a baby flush draw, you're not likely to be up against a better flush draw. Only roughly one time out of six will you be up against another flush draw. (Here's the last step in my math:
24318/148995 = 0.1632 = ~1/6).

Buzz

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

I'm surprised this thread is still breathing.

Somebody nailed it, but to reiterate, the problem with the LAG's hand is that most times he plays back at you, he will be a significant dog. Virtually all his equity is coming from a 7th-nut flush, as has been pointed out; relying on that equity again and again will cost him in the long run.

Just make a mental note or buddy list him, and you can ream him most of the time you play. Also, although you might alter your play against an idiot like this (reduce freq of continuation bets, etc), you should not make sweeping adjustments to your game, such as avoiding the pot-bet on the flop here against a general opponent, or pushing 5-high club draw with bottom pair.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I put someone on AA and dont think that they have the Ac or a flush draw then heads up this is worth-while to take.

[/ QUOTE ]
How are you going to decide that they don't have the A-high flush draw? If you hold the naked A, then sure. But if you try to go around picking off AA hands on a two-flush board with a measly pair or whatever like the LAG did in this hand, you'll go broke.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

The 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a key card for his hand. These are spots where you're going to find yourself fairly often in typical O8B online games (i say online because it isnt spread anywhere live, really). There's a lot of gamble in this game, so get in there and do it. With this flop, he's actually not missed it that bad, at all, and with that damn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] it gives him a ton of backdoor straight draws, not to mention his two pair hands are now live.




Tex

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
The 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a key card for his hand. These are spots where you're going to find yourself fairly often in typical O8B online games (i say online because it isnt spread anywhere live, really). There's a lot of gamble in this game, so get in there and do it. With this flop, he's actually not missed it that bad, at all, and with that damn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] it gives him a ton of backdoor straight draws, not to mention his two pair hands are now live.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're not dumping the LAG's hand regularly, you will go broke.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

Yeah, in PL. That goes w/o saying.