NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

Thanks LLXC for the PM giving me a heads up about this game. I had not even started looking for this yet as it's early in the season. Indeed, we have our first play this year.

(12) Illinois
North Carolina -2

Take North Carolina if you follow this trend.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

Ha! I've been telling people North Carolina isn't as crappy as they seem to think. Vegas agrees with me.

(or maybe they really hate Illinois, which I think is actually more likely, but I like my first hypothesis better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I dont get this bet man. UNC lost 6 of their strong players from last year while Illinois keeps all the top players. Shouldn't this be an easy bet on Illinois? I checked Sagarin and it puts them at even, so with the game being played in Carolina -2 or -3 would make logical sense. However, one must look past the early Sagarin "data" in this game dont you think?

Indy

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

whoa whoa whoa. illinois did NOT keep all its top players. No offense, but if you think they did then sports betting clearly isnt for you. They lost their best player in deron williams to the NBA as well as luther head. Not to mention they lost roger powel. All they have left this year is Dee Brown and James Augustine. Im a big Illinois fan and I'm not sure if I'm going to touch this game tonight. We will see tho

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

Yah I agree that they lost some, but I thought Carolina lost everybody. I do think that I'm a poor sports bettor to be honest. I was on the run of my life until that week the Eagles lost to the Cowboys (was that week 5 or 6??). I lost pretty much the whole roll that week. I have rebuilt though and I'm on another run after killing that Colts game last night, as well as the turkey games. I wonder if I too should stay away from the bball game tonight. Does anybody see any value in this game?

Indy

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I put my bet in last night. I play every one of these games that fits the trend. Many look ugly. That's good.

Here is more info on the game.

It looks like the line went down to -1.5 but now is back up to -2 at most places.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

It's a trend. It doesn't have to make sense.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I'm posting this about 10 hours too early but I figured, what the heck? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I followed and played the unranked favored vs ranked teams system last year but for tonight, I'm going with Illinois. This North Carolina team is just too unstable and inconsistent to be the favorite right now, in my opinion. I like the more experienced Illinois team to win. Yes, they lost Head, Powell and Williams, but they still have seniors Brown and Augustine to lead the way. NC meanwhile lost its top 7 scorers from last year and is playing mostly freshman and sophs. When it comes down to it, I'd rather have my money backing Brown to go off for a big game rather than the freshman assigned to guard him. And getting points is a bonus.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

You could make this case every time the fav is the underdog.

The earth is not flat people.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

A system is only as good as the last year in which it worked. I know this system was good last year but I don't have any data for previous years. Does anyone have this info? Remember, a system or trend is often nothing more than a series of coincidences. I wouldn't blindly play a system without at least trying to analyze each particular matchup. A game may be favorable under one particular (historically successful) angle, but unfavorable under another (historically successful) angle. Isn't it at least possible that NC is favored because teams that win the national title one year tend to be overvalued in the following season?

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

My only problem with this pick is that it conflicts with the basis of the system.

You reason, rightly, that handicappers know that the public tends to overbet ranked teams and especially so if the ranked teams is the underdog to an unranked team. Hence, they would only make an unranked team even a small favorite if they thought they were really going to kill the ranked team.

That normally makes a lot of sense.

However, the handicappers also happen to know that teams with massive nationwide fan bases like UNC in basketball and Notre Dame in football get overbet regardless of the line.

This appears to be a case of the line setters realizing that UNC will get overbet at home far more than Illinois will get overbet just because they are ranked. Hence, they make UNC the favorite in what should probably be a pick'em game.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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Isn't it at least possible that NC is favored because teams that win the national title one year tend to be overvalued in the following season?

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This is certainly possible and something to consider. However, I think in general you miss the point behind the entire "system". The reason you bet on the favored unranked team is that the public has usually given you at least a few points in value.
Another words perhaps the game should be -5, but the public likes to bet favorites so the line is -2. Obviously this is only one factor in play, as you point out defending National Champions can be overvalued as well.

No Chance takes the approach that you can't pick and choose which game you like, you follow the trend, and have come out ahead in the end in almost every season.

The bigger picture should allow the sports bettor to realize how you make money betting on sports. You can argue until you are blue in the face about who will outrebound who and which team has the better shooters, but the real trick is just finding value in the lines.

-SC

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

Point taken. Just trying to say that one system may indicate value on one team but another system may indicate value on the other team and that you shouldn't limit yourself to just one system when analyzing the game. Good luck to you whatever you decide to do.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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My only problem with this pick is that it conflicts with the basis of the system.

You reason, rightly, that handicappers know that the public tends to overbet ranked teams and especially so if the ranked teams is the underdog to an unranked team. Hence, they would only make an unranked team even a small favorite if they thought they were really going to kill the ranked team.

That normally makes a lot of sense.

However, the handicappers also happen to know that teams with massive nationwide fan bases like UNC in basketball and Notre Dame in football get overbet regardless of the line.

This appears to be a case of the line setters realizing that UNC will get overbet at home far more than Illinois will get overbet just because they are ranked. Hence, they make UNC the favorite in what should probably be a pick'em game.

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This is also good analysis and is another way to look at it.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I finshed college in 1992. I have folled this trend since 1990. It has never had a losing year in that time. I can't prove it. If someone has access to a database or wants to look it up, I would love the exact data in print to point out how good it is. It's also never won EVERY game. ISome games will lose. NO game is a lock. However, since it's never lost over an entire season for me and I can't see into the future to tell if this is one of those times it's going to lose, I'm betting on the trend.

I know very little about the teams sometimes. I wont be able to give you reasons why North Carolina is a good bet. I don't even care. I just know that Vegas is not in the business to put out bad lines on games that the public has lots of exposure to. I will guarantee that people will respond exactly the way shamu did. I repeat, that is exactly why it works. Those of you who followed it last year will remember the exact kind of thing being posted in those threads. The fact is, people like betting on ranked teams when they are getting points. This gives the unranked team an extra couple of points I like to call value points. Over the long run, this adds up to a winning percentage.

It looks like the line is at -1.5 at most places now. If you read the article I posted above you will see that the sharps are not taking North Carolina tonight because they are unsure of how good they are. BUT, they are not taking Illinois either. They just don't know. This is probably why the line is dropping. The general public is taking the ranked team while the sharps are not responding.

That is all.

Seriously, if someone has the data for the last 15-20 years, I would be greatful.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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I finshed college in 1992. I have folled this trend since 1990. It has never had a losing year in that time. I can't prove it. If someone has access to a database or wants to look it up, I would love the exact data in print to point out how good it is. It's also never won EVERY game. ISome games will lose. NO game is a lock. However, since it's never lost over an entire season for me and I can't see into the future to tell if this is one of those times it's going to lose, I'm betting on the trend.

I know very little about the teams sometimes. I wont be able to give you reasons why North Carolina is a good bet. I don't even care. I just know that Vegas is not in the business to put out bad lines on games that the public has lots of exposure to. I will guarantee that people will respond exactly the way shamu did. I repeat, that is exactly why it works. Those of you who followed it last year will remember the exact kind of thing being posted in those threads. The fact is, people like betting on ranked teams when they are getting points. This gives the unranked team an extra couple of points I like to call value points. Over the long run, this adds up to a winning percentage.

It looks like the line is at -1.5 at most places now. If you read the article I posted above you will see that the sharps are not taking North Carolina tonight because they are unsure of how good they are. BUT, they are not taking Illinois either. They just don't know. This is probably why the line is dropping. The general public is taking the ranked team while the sharps are not responding.

That is all.

Seriously, if someone has the data for the last 15-20 years, I would be greatful.

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Thanks for the info. Also agree with your analysis in general, but I think in this particular matchup, Poppa has a good point. Ranked teams may be public teams but UNC may be the MORE public team, even when unranked, especially since they are defending champs.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I took Illinois, -2. I just cannot see UNC doing this tonight.

Indy

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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I took Illinois, -2. I just cannot see UNC doing this tonight.

Indy

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enlighten me.

-U of I fan

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

Meh, you guys may have a point but would the same people who overbet North Carolina still do so knowing they lost their top 7 scorers? I doubt it. I could be wrong.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

Thanks NoChance, I'll be on it this year. I'm also doing my own trend. Fading PSU in EVERY GAME THEY PLAY.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

The system may still be right. I'm seeing 81% of bets on the ranked team Illinois. Still sticking with my Illinois play though.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I can't see how UNC will pull this off, but I don't care. I'm on this trend all year long. Just got UNC -1 (-105).

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I have been looking forward to following this trend from the first time i read it posted...but im being a square. All I know is UNC lost their top 7 scorers from last season and Illinois still has Dee Brown, whihc is good enough for me. Im on Illinois +1.5 -110. Hopefully this trend goes 100-1, with this loss being the one

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

For what its worth, UNC has what's generally regarded as the top recruiting class this year. They are going to upset a lot of people this year, but they're not going to be consistent enough to get it done long-term.

I think, per Caldarooni's post, that the mechanics underlying this trend likely do not apply here: UNC is not an under-exposed team and are going to have plenty of money floating on their side as a nationally-followed team, not to mention the last-years-champs factor.

For what its worth, I'd stay away from this game entirely, but if you were going to make a play I'd take UNC at home. They are exceedingly talented and very tough at home.

Bodog has this at a pick'em (-110).

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

This is down to a pick 'em

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

People on here need to stop overthinking sports betting in my opinion. If this trend is hitting at a good %, blindly following it is better than saying you like the trend but finding a reason to go against it. I remember when I first started betting sports. I figured I could look at the lines and bet the obvious games. That is a recipe for disaster. I guess people that get 46% of the games right get enough positive reenforcement to think they know sports betting.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I really think this argument will continue to appear every time the trend warrants betting on a game.

The best move may be to link the post where No Chance explains the trend and move on.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

Every year I bet hoops, and follow this trend and cuss myself for not solely playing it and no other picks and each year I wonder if it will be the year it falls off.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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I checked Sagarin and it puts them at even, so with the game being played in Carolina -2 or -3 would make logical sense. However, one must look past the early Sagarin "data" in this game dont you think?


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I loooove Sagarin predictor, but I do agree that Sagarin data is weak this early in the season. I think that the line comes from two factors:

(1) UNC is better than most people think.
(2) Illinois is worse than most people think.

Maybe Illinois is a point or two better, but the game is at UNC, so there you go.

EDIT: Indy, I have no idea why you would take Illinois -2 when you could have gotten them at +2 early. There is no way that can be a good bet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

0-1 but it's a long season.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

And it WILL be a long season for anyone who follows this trend. And you know why? Not because it's a bad trend, because it's proven to be a solid trend.

But I am the trend killer, and I will be on this trend. My apologies.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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And it WILL be a long season for anyone who follows this trend. And you know why? Not because it's a bad trend, because it's proven to be a solid trend.

But I am the trend killer, and I will be on this trend. My apologies.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...ooted/rofl.gif

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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And it WILL be a long season for anyone who follows this trend. And you know why? Not because it's a bad trend, because it's proven to be a solid trend.

But I am the trend killer, and I will be on this trend. My apologies.

[/ QUOTE ]
At least he was nice enough to warn us. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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I'm also doing my own trend. Fading PSU in EVERY GAME THEY PLAY.

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One trend is off to a good start. YTD 1-0

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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0-1 but it's a long season.

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Stick to your guns NoChance as im sure you will.. everyone who is hating on you now will be kicking themselves when the season finishes up.. good stuff!

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I'm also doing my own trend. Fading PSU in EVERY GAME THEY PLAY.

[/ QUOTE ]

One trend is off to a good start. YTD 1-0

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an unkillable trend. No lie. My freshman year, I had bought season tickets. So first game of the year, I go to the BJC, looking forward to a great season of basketball after a decent football season. I watch as Yale blows them out by 17. I've been to 1 game since.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

lol... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I might as well throw this in here for everyone.. Its all the upcoming games with a Top25 going to an unranked, in the next week.. keep in mind not too many (if any) of these games will still fit the requirements of NoChance's system, since a lot of them will probably be dogs.. but atleast with this list we can all keep an eye on which games are upcoming.

Figured going a week in advance is about right, with the rankings and things changing.. GL all, thanks to NoChance for bringing this to the forefront!


(5)Oklahoma @ Tulsa 11/30
(20)Nevada @ Kansas 12/1
(22)Wake Forest @ Elon 12/3
(9)Memphis @ Cincinnati 12/3
(15)Arizona @ Houston 12/3
(20)Nevada @ Pacific 12/3
(4)Villanova @ Bucknell 12/6
(17)Indiana @ Indiana St 12/6
(11)Florida @ Providence 12/6
(10)Kentucky @ Georgia St 12/6
(14)Iowa @ Northern Iowa 12/6

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

I'm not down. One game wont do that to me.

For what it's worth, even though I had money on UNC, it made me sick watching the comeback at the end of the game. Don't get me wrong. I liked the comeback. I just didn't like the way it happened. I felt Illinois was getting away with a lot of pushing off when freeing themselves to get open for shots and also when rebounding. That's fine. Some refs call a tight game and others let them play. My gripe is that the refs didn't stay consistent. They started calling all those fouls they hadn't called the entire game which allowed UNC back in the game. I hate that. That isn't basketball. I just wish the refs would stay consistent the entire game. UNC didn't make the neccessary adjustments. That was a combination of bad coaching and also just a team that is too young to know how to play that way. I just hate it when then refs control the game.

Anyone else notice this? Illinois should have won by more had the refs not let UNC back in.

Other observations:

Augustine is good!

I'm not impressed at all with Brown. He gets away with a ton of slaps on defense. He is quick on offense though but not a great shooter.

UNC has talent once again. They will cause people trouble later in the year after playing together for a while.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

As has been said, the point of ranked and unranked trends is neutralized when the unranked team is the most bandwagoned team in college basketball. Around noon today, the action was fairly even on both sides per Wagerline.

The Trend in general is a solid one, although there are usually one or two teams, especially early... that would buck this trend. Usually it involves teams good last year that suck this year.

Re: NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29
 

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I'm not down. One game wont do that to me.

For what it's worth, even though I had money on UNC, it made me sick watching the comeback at the end of the game. Don't get me wrong. I liked the comeback. I just didn't like the way it happened. I felt Illinois was getting away with a lot of pushing off when freeing themselves to get open for shots and also when rebounding. That's fine. Some refs call a tight game and others let them play. My gripe is that the refs didn't stay consistent. They started calling all those fouls they hadn't called the entire game which allowed UNC back in the game. I hate that. That isn't basketball. I just wish the refs would stay consistent the entire game. UNC didn't make the neccessary adjustments. That was a combination of bad coaching and also just a team that is too young to know how to play that way. I just hate it when then refs control the game.

Anyone else notice this? Illinois should have won by more had the refs not let UNC back in.

Other observations:

Augustine is good!

I'm not impressed at all with Brown. He gets away with a ton of slaps on defense. He is quick on offense though but not a great shooter.

UNC has talent once again. They will cause people trouble later in the year after playing together for a while.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree with the analysis. Illinois should have locked that one up early. It was partially due to the refs but both teams were also sloppy as hell. And I hate it when a team has a sizable lead and then tries to chew up the clock but then doesn't do anything with their possessions and slowly let's the other team back in. Illinois would let it tick down to 10 or so on every possession, but then they had no plan at all after that and would panic and either turn it over or heave up a bad shot. UNC's definitely got some good young guys though. Played some solid D on several of those late possessions. I wouldn't write off Brown just yet. His shot did look absolutely horrible tonight but I have a feeling he'll heat up soon enough. Remember, this guy shot 50% last year, 45% from 3.