5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

Interested to see what kind of % people have with
winning %$at SD. Mostly from people playing 5-10 to 15-30, since the lower levels will have more players in and you can beat the game at a lower %. Over the last 45k I have averaged 54.29% and that has resulted in a winning BB/100 hands of 0.53.
With my current VPIP of 17 and going to showdown 30% I need to win 53% of the showdons to breakeven and if I win 57% of the time I'm a 2BB/100 hands winner. Comments?

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

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With my current VPIP of 17 and going to showdown 30% I need to win 53% of the showdons to breakeven and if I win 57% of the time I'm a 2BB/100 hands winner. Comments?

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How can you come to this conclusion? Win rate is affected by the times you win without a showdown, how much you lose when you lose a hand, the size of the pots you win, etc. It's a lot more complicated than "if I win X% of my showdowns, then I will have a win rate of Y BB/100." I can tell you how to increase your W$SD. Just reduce your WtSD. Of course, your win rate will probably drop.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

The conclussion is from the 45k hands I have played. I want nothing general, I understand the math and logic. Give me specifics from your play please

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

Dude, you asked for comments at the end of your post. Why ask for them if you're not going to listen?

-McGee

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

Fair enough, I should have stated specifics in op

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

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Fair enough, I should have stated specifics in op

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In all seriousness, you'd probably be better off listening to what he had to say.

-McGee

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

He is right, it all goes into your winrate. But the pots that goes to showdown are the big ones, usually about 8bb or more. I'm trying to find a point where you go from saying I'm running bad to saying My play does not beat this game. This is only one part of the equation, but I feel it is important. thanks for help.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

oops n/m

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

When you get up to 5/10 and higher, you really can't take a simple PT statistic and use it to judge your play anymore. While just playing ABC poker to get your stats within the accepted norms will work well on the microlimits, and to a lesser extent on 2/4 and even 3/6, when it comes to 5/10 & up the key really is your postflop play. Specifically, maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses on each hand you play.

You also have to take into consideration the fact that fewer hands are going to showdown on these limits. You can (and should) be netting a good deal of your winnings via blind steals and pots won on the turn.

If you do want statistical analysis, then it's probably safe to say that if your WtSD & W$SD are close to normal, but your WR is poor, then you are probably guilty of either overplaying your hands when beaten, or playing too passively when you're good. And probably not stealing the blinds often enough.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

I agree 100% with what you are saying. But if I divide the 45k hands played in 5k hand blocks, the biggest variable of all stats is W%SD and I'm courious to see what others have.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

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if I divide the 45k hands played in 5k hand blocks, the biggest variable of all stats is W%SD and I'm courious to see what others have.

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This will always be true. It's simply the luck factor creeping into the equation, and the smaller your sample size the greater an effect it will have on your numbers. But I'm sure you already know that, so I really don't get what you're asking.

If it matters at all (I don't believe it does), my W$SD is 53.31% on 5/10, although I only have about 10k hands in my current database. My WR is good.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

At some point you have to say that luck is not what's causing you not to win, rather it is something wrong with your play. And I think this stat is a good "red flag" to use. I.e if you after 10k hands where loosing but your w$sd at 60%, you have a huge leak, By the way I bet your W$sf is no less than 38.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

there has been quite a discussion on this topic in short-handed over the past few weeks
W%SD cannot be viewed in isolation...it is heavily influenced by WTSD% among other things.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

absolutely, but I believe W%SD is the stat that has the biggest variance. I.e vpip, pfr, af, and WTSD% is not going to have a 6% point spread over a few thosand hands, but
W%SD may. That is why I want to look at it closer and hear what % other people are seeing.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

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At some point you have to say that luck is not what's causing you not to win, rather it is something wrong with your play. And I think this stat is a good "red flag" to use. I.e if you after 10k hands where loosing but your w$sd at 60%, you have a huge leak, By the way I bet your W$sf is no less than 38.

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Over the longer run, when the luck factor evens out, your W$SD will balance out to (eventually) one which truly demonstrates your game play. Over the short run, which seems to be central to your question regarding variance in this statistic, your W$SD will be affected heavily by luck. Regardless, if you are winning the minimum when you do win at showdown, but losing the maximum, you will still be losing money even if your W$SD is closer to 70%. It's in this manner that W$SD becomes a good statistic for analyzing your play--when compared to your VPIP, WTSD, and WR (among other things), it can give you a pretty fair indicator of how well you are playing postflop. You can (and will) play just as well as you normally do over a 5k or even 15k hand sample and still end up with a W$SD that is considerably lower than your norm, if you're catching cold cards & getting sucked out on a lot. However, if your normal W$SD is much lower or higher than what is considered good (generally, 51-57%, although I aim for 52-55%), this is indicative of leaks in your game. Even with those same leaks, you can still run well over a decent-sized sample of hands and end up with a "perfect" W$SD.

My W$SF is over that 10k hand span is only slightly higher than my overall number, which is around 40%.

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

Well said. We are finally getting somewhere. I'm trying to find out what the norm is and it has to be a more narrow range than 50-57%. Your expected range of 52-55 indicates to me that you go to showdown about 33%?
With your stats W$SD at 53% and W$SF at 40% you should be winning at 5-10, but if you were losing with those stats it would indicate a leak.
I want to have these indicators as narrow as possible when I go to bigger games. So I can quickly asses whether I'm running bad or my game is not good enough. Granted they will probaly change a little as you move up from 5-10/10-20 to 30-60 with more hu pots

Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown
 

This thread deals only with numbers from 2/4 & 3/6 full ring, but it should help out a little in figuring out what kind of numbers other, winning players are posting in LHE. Just keep in mind that different playing styles can result in some pretty different stat sets, even while both players post healthy win rates.

I do aim for a WTSD of around 33%. But, as you said, it does change as you move up in levels and find yourself in HU pots more often against tricky, aggressive players.