Indy/Pitt Under
 

For the first time all year, Staley, Bettis, and Fast Willie Parker are healthy. Big Ben is back, but his strength isn't exactly airing it out 40 times per game. I expect Pittsburgh to run run run run run all day. They will want to shorten the game to have a chance vs. Indy.

On the other side of the ball, Pitt has a good D and may be able to slow down Indy more than most teams do (which means they may be able to hold them to under 27 points!).

All in all, I expect a few long (13 play, 7 minute) drives, and a final score of something like 21-17 or 24-20. I love the under.

Because I think Pitt will score a time or two, I also like (but much less so) Pitt.

Good luck everybody.

hd

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

The game may well turn out as you predict, but I wouldn't feel at all safe betting the under. After a low-scoring first half which is still weighting down their O/Us, Indianapolis has reverted to last year's form of scoring and allowing lots of points. Over their past five games, the average total has been 64.4.

Over the whole season, Pittsburgh's average total has been 39.7 -- low, but not really low.

Roethlisberger and the Steelers can move the ball when they need to. It may be that they intend to grind the clock, and that they can do it successfully. Still, it's probably at least as likely that Indy jumps out to an early lead, forcing Pittsburgh to open up the offense.

Indy, 35-20.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

[ QUOTE ]
The game may well turn out as you predict, but I wouldn't feel at all safe betting the under. After a low-scoring first half which is still weighting down their O/Us, Indianapolis has reverted to last year's form of scoring and allowing lots of points. Over their past five games, the average total has been 64.4.

Over the whole season, Pittsburgh's average total has been 39.7 -- low, but not really low.

Roethlisberger and the Steelers can move the ball when they need to. It may be that they intend to grind the clock, and that they can do it successfully. Still, it's probably at least as likely that Indy jumps out to an early lead, forcing Pittsburgh to open up the offense.

Indy, 35-20.

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Just a couple quick points.

Pittsburgh has healthy RBs for the first time all year. That will likely hold the score down, as Pitt will quite possibly dominate the TOP battle.

Yes, Indy's scoring has picked up. However, there last 5 games have been vs:

Houston twice
St Louis
New England
Cincy

All of those teams have way worse Ds than Pitt, and 3 of them have significantly higher powered offenses.

I certainly don't expect another 13-6 (CLE) or 10-3 (JAX) game, and there's definitely a chance this game goes 38-21 (I'm not some "lock" predicting tout). However, I think it's most likley that this game goes under.

[as an aside, if I was to tease this total, I'd tease the over, not the under].

Best of luck,

hd

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

Pittsburgh #3 against the run.. and they blitz alot.. Im expecting Peyton to have his way with the Steelers secondary

I also think the Colts Defense hasnt really shown much against any team with a valid O... and granted pittsburghs not going to come out and light it up but I think the total is one to stay away from here.. good luck!

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

I'm hedging on this game. I like the over, so I've got Over 47 (-111), one unit. If that doesn't come through, though, I think that Pittsburgh has a very good chance ot win outright, so I've got the Steelers ML (+306) for 2/3 of a unit. I expect to lose one of the bets, but I'd be surprised to lose both.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

im strongly leaning towards teasing down to indy -2 and bringing o/u down to 41ish and going over, thoughts?

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

[ QUOTE ]
im strongly leaning towards teasing down to indy -2 and bringing o/u down to 41ish and going over, thoughts?

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I was kind thinking the opposite (sort of) Indy -2/Under 54. I cant see Rothlesberger (sp) throwing alot. I agree with early comments, this game will be spent on the ground rather than the air. Just my 2 cents. GL.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

As a Pitt fan, I don't normally bet on Steeler games but teasing this one is just too much to pass on for tonight. I grabbed Pitt +14.5 and under 53.5. I also put a small amount on the moneyline just for the hell of it. Again, these were just for fun because the Colts scare the hell out of me.

I do like the under though but I expect Pitt to come out throwing on their first drive to surprise them and then settle down and run the ball every drive after that (unless they fall behind). Also, look for some reverses to keep Freely from coming full steam and forcing him to stay "home". As always, look for a possible pass in that situation at least once as well, El to Ward (I hope).

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

I teased it down to -2 and paired it with the under 54. I know that I should get the favorite tied with the over but I think Pittsburg will be running a lot tonight and will make the under a good bet.

gl

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

[ QUOTE ]
I teased it down to -2 and paired it with the under 54. I know that I should get the favorite tied with the over but I think Pittsburg will be running a lot tonight and will make the under a good bet.

gl

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Why all these teases? Do people here not realize that any tease involving a total is a really bad idea? The move from 48 to 54 on the total is only worth about 70 cents - it needs to be worth more than twice that to be profitable in a tease.

At least you got it right by teasing IND (crossing the 7 and the 3), but the people who picked PIT on a tease along with the total seem to like throwing money away.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

There are several examples in this thread of how to throw away money.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

<font color="red">Why all these teases? </font>
Action. If I can't pick a side or don't have much time to properly look over a game I will sometimes make a small teaser bet just so I have a little more than a rooting interest.

<font color="red">Do people here not realize that any tease involving a total is a really bad idea? </font>
Speaking for myself, no I didn't realize that [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I have actually been doing very good on these this season and the tease has saved my bacon a few times.

<font color="red"> The move from 48 to 54 on the total is only worth about 70 cents - it needs to be worth more than twice that to be profitable in a tease. </font>
How do you calculate that or how do you find that information. It seems to me that that could be some good info to have.


<font color="red"> At least you got it right by teasing IND (crossing the 7 and the 3), but the people who picked PIT on a tease along with the total seem to like throwing money away. </font>

Yea, I did something right [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

A couple of new things to keep in mind for me though, thanks for the insight.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm hedging on this game. I like the over, so I've got Over 47 (-111), one unit. If that doesn't come through, though, I think that Pittsburgh has a very good chance ot win outright, so I've got the Steelers ML (+306) for 2/3 of a unit. I expect to lose one of the bets, but I'd be surprised to lose both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Is a Colts 24-17 win (or something similar) that difficult to conceive?

I think sometimes with these combination "hedge" bets, people lose sight of what they're betting on or against. You're basically betting on the PITT offense- which is probably the worst of the four major units in the game- on the road against a Colts defense that has given up less than 14 ppg at home this year.

Not saying that the bets are bad, and I could certainly see one or both hitting in this game, but I don't really get how they're a hedge.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

I'm liking the over even more now, and not just because the scoring is on pace to get there. Pittsburgh is running a balanced (not terribly run-heavy) offense and, more importantly, is moving at a fairly quick pace. They're leaving 8-9 seconds on the play clock every time.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm liking the over even more now, and not just because the scoring is on pace to get there. Pittsburgh is running a balanced (not terribly run-heavy) offense and, more importantly, is moving at a fairly quick pace. They're leaving 8-9 seconds on the play clock every time.

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That's curious, because I'm liking the under even more. They spent over 4 minutes to move the ball 29 yards. Their D is slowing Indy way down (except the one 80 yard bomb). Their "Balanced Attack" is indeed balanced but short 5 yard passes are about the same as runs. They keep the clock running and don't move the ball down the field too fast.

hd

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

The under is looking like the better side at the half. Still, Indy's offense has tended to make good adjustments to quality defenses and pick up the pace later in games, so we'll see.

Good luck.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

how valuable are teasers on bears-level, like 33, totals? seems like they would be worth substantially more there.

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

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how valuable are teasers on bears-level, like 33, totals? seems like they would be worth substantially more there.

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There are no 6 points that are worth teasing when it comes to totals - however, I do get a reasonable number for teasing o34 to o28 (nearly twice the difference of going from u48 to u54).

Re: Indy/Pitt Under
 

Just like I said: Colts and the Under.

Seriously, though, nice pick. I was right about the Colts jumping out to a lead, but Pittsburgh was unable to open up the offense successfully, and Indy put on the breaks big-time after that early 3rd Quarter TD. Oh well, I'll lick 'em next week.