Hat trick on the turn
 

I have pulled this trick several times and almost everytime it is successful. I was wondering if any of you do it.

Say you are on the button and raise with a nice raising hand vs 3-4 callers. The flop comes and completely misses you and in fact looks like it would help any of the limpers. All check because they are wimps and you check because there are so many limpers that you can't possibly be ahead by the board.

The board pairs the 3 and everyone checks again. now I bet immidiately and they all fold. I usually make a very quick check on the flop that looks real suspicious and quick bet te turn. They all delay in their thinking but eventually fold like I was trapping with top set. It seems to work most of the time. I am sure these fish are holding marginal hands that have me beat but because they fear that BIG TRAP they fold. But the board has to be just so to pull this off.

I see this done when a fish is trying to trap you. They limp you raise, the call. Flop comes they check you bet then call calmly. Then turn comes REAL dangerous and you missed completely with 4 cards out fish checks, you check beacuse you are sure you are behind.... River comes and the fish immidiatly bets because he missed check raising you with a set on the turn.

Thoughts?

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

I'm having a hard time envisioning what a "just so" board means in this case. In your example, you say "the board pairs the 3" in which case fish are highly unlikely to fold if they have any pair, since they'll think their J8 on the T83-3 board is maybe winning. What kind of board are you talking about that "looks like it would help any of the limpers"?

Basically, I think if you get all 3-4 opponents to fold, then it's because none of them caught a piece of the flop and of course didn't catch on the turn either.

Also, I think your idea of a "fast check" followed by a "fast bet" isn't very valuable. Nobody, especially fish, is going to be worried that you're trapping them by checking through a 4- or 5- way flop so you can bet the turn.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

sounds to me like they all fold because you have the best hand with AQ or something. Incidentally, you probably get 3 callers on the flop, because of the smaller bet and the fact that there are two cards to come. The larger bet on the turn cuts down the odds for eveyone to draw to a pair, so that may help the odss of taking down the pot. But I think you just got lucky and no one made a pair. Won't happen often in a 5 handed pot

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

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I have pulled this trick several times and almost everytime it is successful.

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Quantify "several" and "almost"...

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

that's pretty funny

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

Ok in other words I am not doing it on with AsKs on a board of 7h8h9c because I know I will get callers. The board needs to be a certain way for me to pull it off.

It works most of the time which means it is profitable since I am risking 1 BB to win 3-4 BBs. If it just worked 1/3 the time its profitable.

Thats what i mean by almost and most

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

Naw 5 handed U don't try it. 3-4 handed I do. of couse 2 I do unless the board is a total wash with a nasty draw and 2 callers no suits.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

The board depends on who calls, and it has to be the type of players that are always looking for the trap and to avoid it. We will take for example 3 players that are not super calling stations but not good either. They are low risk players that are generally weak tight. They all check twice on a board of Q852 rainbow.

Since the pot is small and I have position I can make assumptions about their hands by everyone NOT betting the turn. If I have a super calling station anywhere in there I probably won't bet as no matter what because him auto calling will induce others to call also because now the pot gets larger. But if the players are of reasonable intelligence then I know someone in later position on the turn might bet the board with a draw, an 8, or a 5. Since none did I represent that I slowplayed a set especially on a borken board like that on the flop. Most of the time I get 1-2 players thinking hard about calling then fold. Or if I smell a weak player making a value bet with some small pair or draw that is capable of folding or checking the river and is not a calling station I might raise with ace high.

These situations are very rare but I have been in them around a 30 times or so times during my last 2 years.

But recently (this month) I was able to pull it off 4 times in a row and I got reminded of this. So I posted the questions.

I read players well what can I say. I can smell weakness. I just wish I listened to my instincts more, they are right 95% of the time.

And I think you are not giving players some credit. Even fish can subconsciously notice certain timing and betting patterns of players. They can identify when someone is trying to trap, slowplay, or bluff. Not all but more than you think. Instincts come from seeing a pattern so many times that your mind registers it subconsciously and applies the knowledge later. If a fish plays a lot he can develope some skills like this. I am just trying to use their instincts against them.

I have had times when playing 4 tables that I was delayed in a decision at table C while playing a hand on table A. The opponent on table C took my delay as weakness and kept being aggressive. Of course the reason he did is because by accident my betting timing and pattern changed for that hand, but not because I was thinking but because I was busy. Thus the player misread my play and took that as a sign of weakness and pressed a losing hand anyways.

I wanted to know if others do this also online and see if there were other little tricks anyone knew about. Other players teach me little things all the time I use in poker.

Most players online are pretty much ABC and adjust to others by their GT+. Thats fine for 3/6 2/4 even 5/10. Maybe these little signs are not apparent to them.

Poker Mentor (Dan) is an associate of mine. He plays better poker than I do. His analytical skills and math skills are far superior than mine, but he can't smell out a bluff to save his life. he plays based on math and analysis not player tells. His tell skills are weak in my opinion. He's a difference player. Thinks my reads are crazy even though I am right most of the time.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

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Poker Mentor (Dan) is an associate of mine. He plays better poker than I do. His analytical skills and math skills are far superior than mine, but he can't smell out a bluff to save his life. he plays based on math and analysis not player tells. His tell skills are weak in my opinion. He's a difference player. Thinks my reads are crazy even though I am right most of the time.

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Given that Poker Mentor plays "better poker than [you]" shouldn't you deduce that math/analytical skills are significantly more important than instincts?

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

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Thinks my reads are crazy even though I am right most of the time.


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I think this is the entire crux of your post. Basically, you are asking "should I make low percentage plays because I can smell weakness so well?"

Personally, I can't answer that. I don't smell weakness particularly well, so I play like Mentor Dan. I don't recommend that Mentor Dan or myself make plays based on our instincts. Yours are apparently better honed than ours though, so maybe these plays are good for you.

Incidentally, in the example you gave (rainbow board of Q852 that was checked around on both the flop and turn), I'm willing to give you good odds that nobody had anything better than a pair of 2s.

I'm also wondering if Q85 rainbow is a flop that likely would have helped your opponents, what are the possible flops that don't help your opponents? Maybe my instincts are better than I think, because I bluff into a ragged flop like that against 3 or 4 opponents a heck of a lot more than 4 times a month and, yes, it's profitable for me too.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

I'll bet every time it worked, your ace high was the best hand on the turn. That makes it a good bet to protect your hand.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

Nope they run 50/50. The math is mostly easy. The hard ones are that you have to spot the right times mathematically raise to either eliminate opponents, save you money if you are behind, or raise to get more money n the pot when you are ahead. All these are more complicated analysis parts which I am constantly improving. PM does this very very well. He has showed me errors in my game when it comes to the analysis and why and how I need to bet. Thats the difficult part of the math.

Everyone has a different level of instincts. It can be developed over time and grown. Stu Ungar, Matasow, and Phil Hellmuth have great instincts. Phil Ivey has even been quoted "math is not as important as instints". Players like Lederer and Ferguson are emotionless rocks that make their tells on psychology and math analisys then combine the 2 for a result. Ferguson has admitted he has trouble reading players, but they have trouble reading him too.

Instincts are quickly improved just by picking up some pshychology books and Mike Caro's book on tells. The harder part of instinct comes from being intraspective. Know yourself and you will know others. Seems easy? Not! You have to be completely honest with yourself and learn to interprete each and every single response, action, and why you did it on the subconscious level. Once you are able to be this way you understand the mind of others. We are all human, we all have the same chemistry, fears, and our own little pattern.

So to answer your question they are both of equal importance. Just some are better at one that the other.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

Daniel Negreanu's viewpoint

If you don't want to read the whole thing, here are a couple of salient quotes:

"for the most part, a great player makes his read based on the actual betting that took place, not the facial tics."

"Now, I shouldn't be telling you this, but I will anyway. It's simply a scare tactic used by many pros to make you feel uncomfortable."

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

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Nope they run 50/50.

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You're wrong.

It seems like you're letting your short term results reinforce an incorrect strategy (maybe not incorrect but, at the least, flawed conecptually). This is a dangerous game you're playing.

As far as those quotes you gave from a few pro players... #1 - don't believe everything you see on T.V. - poker programs (as is any program) are fuled by ratings. #2 - I've seen some of the quotes you mentioned. I've never seen any of those quotes in the context of limit poker.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

The other big thing in this is that they all check again. Passive players (and aggro ones as well) will often check to the raiser, regardless, on the flop. But once the flop gets checked through, they are betting most decent hands (even fairly passive players) and at least check/calling with a pair, if these are the loose passive standard players we all know and love. So once you get checked to again, your hand really is good a large portion of the time (assuming AQ UI or something).

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

Its not facial ticks or one exact thing, not even close. Its lots of little things that add up to a determination if a player is weak or strong added to math and analysis. Both are together to forumate the right play.

Your telling me you never made a play at the pot because you could tell an opponent was weak even though he was betting? Or that you don't use their personality against them.

I had guys that their tells were so blatently obvious I could play my hands accordingly. One guy would look at the flop only when he had a strong hand, and look at the players when he was weak. Another would always, and I mean always say "I guess I bet" when he had a strong hand. Another guy would talk and make slight jokes when he held a monster and was trying to give you the impression he was weak. Another player would look you in the eye when he was strong. Online players will delay a long time like they are thinking to trick you into check behind for the free card. Or auto call on a draw. These are all tells. Some players are much more sutble about it. You really have to find what can give you a hint to their hand. Sometimes its a reaction to a statement you say even.

Tournament last week I had QQ and raised. I real conservative player looked at his cards looked at my stack and pushed. The pot was just so that this player could have AA-99. If I lost Im out. I made a simple statement based on what I knew about him so far "A guess your AK doesnt want a call" and his reaction told me everything I wanted to know, he had a smaller pair, and I called. He reacted instinctivly like he just got the punch line of a joke. In other words he figured by my statement I had the smaller pair otherwise if I had AA-QQ Id autocall like is common in these tournaments. I played the player, his experience, and his instints to make the call. I was at the final table and losing there would have cost me a lot of money. I could have folded to fight another time.

Something like that even I would have trouble not reacting to because my mind would get excited thinking my JJ was good because the other player looked worried. Thats why when I put someone to a decision I go off in lala land and think about something else ignoring the other player.

Fine we disagree but look at it this way. If you can read a player then its like he is playing with his hand face up.

You could have 72o and him AKs and both of you miss the flop. If you know his hand you can make him fold or pay you more when you got the better of him.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

This situation comes up rarely for me because I'll almost never check the flop in this spot. The flop has to be a complete [censored] disaster (three of a suit I don't have etc) for me to check. Otherwise, betting isn't expensive, it's still possible you have the best hand, and it sets you up to take a free card on the turn.

Will

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

Ambiguity is rampant in this thread.

First off - I never said that tells are useless. However, you never really clarified if your OP was referring to LIVE gameplay, ONLINE, or both. This is a big distinction in the response I would give.

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Its lots of little things that add up to a determination if a player is weak or strong added to math and analysis. Both are together to forumate the right play.

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You're correct in saying this. However, earlier you suggested that the ratio of one to the other is 50/50. I think you're wrong.

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Your telling me you never made a play at the pot because you could tell an opponent was weak even though he was betting? Or that you don't use their personality against them.

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Absolutely. However - again we're not distinguishing between a critical factor. Are we playing LIMIT or NO-LIMIT. The value of read-base play is clearly related to the size of the bet you're able to make. A given player may be weak-tight and fold too much but, he's going to make far fewer incorrect folds when he's faced with a bet only equal to 1/10th the size of the pot or less versus a pot-size or greater bet. Also, this should go without mentioning that, the magnitude of his mistakes are amplified in the no-limit context.

You're responses are so general that they don't much account for the vast difference that the game we're playing makes in your statements.

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I had guys that their tells were so blatently obvious I could play my hands accordingly. One guy would look at the flop only when he had a strong hand, and look at the players when he was weak. Another would always, and I mean always say "I guess I bet" when he had a strong hand. Another guy would talk and make slight jokes when he held a monster and was trying to give you the impression he was weak. Another player would look you in the eye when he was strong.

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These are definitely great tells that you're picking up on. However, these tells are a small part of the information that you should be using to base a decision on. You're certainly not using these tells to put your opponent on one specific hand - you're using them to assign that player a range of hands. Once you've got the range - it's all mathematical going forward. You're going to use that range, the probabilities of him holding each hand in the range, the pot size, the strength of your hand, the players left to act in the hand and their ranges, etc, etc... to make your final decision when the action is on you.

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Online players will delay a long time like they are thinking to trick you into check behind for the free card. Or auto call on a draw. These are all tells. Some players are much more sutble about it. You really have to find what can give you a hint to their hand. Sometimes its a reaction to a statement you say even.

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I've said this before and I'll say it again. Online tells SUCK! There's zero reliability in an online tell. They mostly have to do with timing which can be affected by many factors out of your control or ability to observe. If you're giving a ton of weight to some player's "online tell" at a decision point and acting in accordance with a pre-set strategy to that stall (or auto-bet, etc...) I think you're going to find that you're costing yourself a significant amount of money in the long run.

Let me reiterate - I'm not dismissing the impact of tells on your decisions. I'm disputing the weight of importance that you're giving this them in the overall scheme of things.

Re: Hat trick on the turn
 

I do agree that online tells like that are of LESS value. Math and analysis, betting patterns are of higher value there. I say by quite a bit. I meant to say live they have the 50/50 value. Id say online.... thats tough but probably 90/10.

Online you can't see if your opponent is checking his hand to see if he is suited or has a guy draw. You cant see them grab their cards like they are throwing them away.

In live games I feel like I have xray vision at times or I'm using the force when dealing with these players. I MUCH prefer live play. But online its a bitch to read.

Like last night I played 500+ hands, took a beating to the fish, and I made 2 real reads off of timing tells. A successful bluff, and a catching a successful bluff.

If it was a live game for 500+ hands which would be what around 14 hours of play? The tells would have been much much more.

And yes in limit there are fewer tells because the betting is structured and the stakes are not as much.

Also when playing with experts tells go down in value. I am used to playing fish, fish, and more fish. I don't want to play crunchy1, neverwins, or anyone named "Iamabigfish".

I want to play crappy players.

I do feel NL tournaments are where tells come out the most.

I took 3rd last week in a small 130 man tournament and my tell skills were accurate for the players hands when I was in or out. of course the ones I saw.

So live has much more value for tells than online. Good players drop this percentage even further because they dont give off as many tells. I know I have a specific pattern for playing tournaments, its statue like. same betting motions, same posture, same talk (nothing). Once in a while I catch myself giving something away.

Thanks whoever posted the Daniel article. BYW Full Tilt has some show on about asking the pros questions. I found it useful. Its on ESPN.

Good discussion crunchy