Folding the nuts?
 

I need a little help with this hand. I am sure I miss played it but I need to know if I am realizing the error because I am being result orientated or if my math, the chip stacks and the timing supports my later analyzes of the hand.

Multi-table tournament with 300 players left the first payout is 100 players away.
Blinds are 100-200
Chip leader (approximated) = 20,000 tournament
Chip leader table Hero with 12,540
Avg. stack tournament= 3,500

Here is the hand:

Villain has 11,800 and is in MP it is folded to him and he bets 400.
Hero is button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] folded to hero, Hero bets 1,000.
Blinds fold Villain calls. It is heads up.

Flop is
T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets 1,000 villain calls.

Turn is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain goes all-in hero calls.

River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain wins hand with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Flush

So after losing the tournament I analyzed this hand and I think I should have folded. Here is why:

I was 99.9% sure Villain had the Ace I had been playing with him for about an hour and there was no way in my mind he would bluff or semi-bluff there.

So if I call I win 1/2 the pot or $2,150 3 out of 4 times but if he is on a flush draw and hits I lose 11,800 1 out of 4 times. Now I don't know how to calculate the probability that he is on a flush draw so I need help there.

Second reason to fold is that if I fold I still have 10,000 chips and a chance to win the tournament or at least finish in the money. If I call and win I have 12,700 but if I call and lose I can get crippled needing to get very lucky to come back.

Comments please. Should I have foleded? Why? Why not? Thanks

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

I think you did the right thing by calling. It's just too unlikely that happens what has happend.
The chance he has a flush draw is about 8% (1/3*1/4). The chance the flush hits is a little over 20% (9/43). For a chance that you are beat about 2% of the time its just not worth giving up 20% of your stack. Just in case you are absolutly sure that he has the flush-draw (in addition to the ace) folding would be right.

Greetings
Dancer

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

This is a situation where saying that "the chance he has a flush draw is 8%" is not accurate. Not because of the math but because quite simply the betting line made it a STRONG possibility. If it were a vacuum with no betting then the math stands alone, but it is not. What are the odds he has one of the remaining 3 Aces? Are they the actual hand distribution odds of an A being dealt? Of course not. He opened raised, that increases the odds he has an A. He pushed in where an A was the nuts and he had to be afraid that his opponent who had him covered had one as well.

Back to the actual question, this is a really tough spot. I think caution may be the better part of valor here. In a cash game you would call, but in a tournament, with his read, I think he is not chopping it a small percentage of the time. There is some money in there but the risk vs. reward is so high.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Defintly cant fold here. Atleast if the postflop action is correct and he went all in on the turn before the flush hit on the river how can you fold. Like you originally said this is being way to result oriented. Hands like these are inevitable. They will happen every now and again. Better luck next time

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

gotta love villain's turn play though.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

This is a math problem. Effective stacks are ~12000 at the start of the hand and the pot on the turn is ~4000.

First off, assume villain has a flush draw and the Ace:

This means that 19.6% of the time hero loses his 10000 chip call on the turn,

.196(10000) = -1960 chips

80.4% of the time the pot splits and hero gets 2000 chips,

.804(2000) = +1608 chips

Given these numbers, then hero should fold if he/she believes that villian has the nut flush draw here greater than 82% of the time (1608/1960).

All that said, given the nature of the hand, the stacksizes, and the bad spot it leaves you in if you lose, you should fold.

mj

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Let's roll the movie back a little further.

If you're really worried about tangling with another big stack, why not bet the flop more aggressively? Bet pot (T2300) or so. He'll read that as you representing a set and not wanting to give him odds to draw out with his A hoping for a K. He'll probably let go of the hand there unless he's also got AK. In which case you end up chopping the blinds.

You don't make a ton of money if you play the hand that way, but you reduce your going-bust risk significantly. And given your big lead over the average stack, there's an argument for wrapping this hand up fast and then going back to your sure-fire moneymaker of grinding down the smaller players steadily, orbit after orbit.

Folding the turn strikes me as horribly weak. Don't play risky hands like AK if you feel compelled to run in such situations.

The river card is a crime against humanity. Sorry to hear abt it. But you did get your money in with the best of it, which is all we can do.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Wow, very impressed with the move by villain.
I couldnt fold that straight although knowing the guys hand, and what he bet, you should.
The chance that hes either a)bluffing b) thinks you dont have the straight and is betting non-two clubed striaght for value would be enough to make me call... Even if he was a solid rock, anyone can change their play at any time. You should never be 100% sure someone isnt bluffing.

Again this is a psychological read, he could even think you put him on two clubs and an ace and is out thinking you.

Regardless, great hand

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

If the hero should fold if he/she believes that villian has the nut flush draw here greater than 82% of the time (1608/1960), there is no way I can fold here. I'd just have to get all my money in the middle and take my chances. You can't be 82% certain of anything if a hand unless the cards are turned up.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

A good player with an Ace will often go all-in without the flush draw. The best you can have is a straight that ties him, and possibly a flush or full-house draw. You could also have a 9, in which case you have a draw for a straight to tie. He'll want you to fold those draws, and it's gravy if you also fold that Ace-high straight.

This is also a hand where a good player is likely to go all-in on a bluff. If he started with a pair of 8's or JTs, he figures he's probably beat here, but there are enough scare cards on the board that you might fold anything; even an Ace-high straight.

Therefore, you have to call. If you were first to act, you'd have gone all in, you have to give him credit for the same logic. Forget the tournament situation. If you pass up opportunities like this, you can't win.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

If you didn't post the results, no one would tell you to fold. Those who said to fold are giving you very bad advice. Some might be giving you whatever fits the results. Others would justify folding AA preflop.

The push could mean any ace, and perhaps other hands like J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It is common to overbet in this situation with just the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Even if you know the villain will push only when he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you don't know that he is free-rolling you with a flush draw. In fact, most A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hands would fold on the flop.

If the stacks were much, much deeper, you could consider folding.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Two things missing from people's math. You can't be %99 sure he has an ace. He could have two pair of various kinds, so I really think you have to factor in at least some chance he doesn't have an A.

The other factor is that you have 3 outs to a full house. So approximately %6 of the time you'll win the whole pot, so you really have to subtract that from his chance of winning the whole pot with a flush draw.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The other factor is that you have 3 outs to a full house

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm..are you sure? lol

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Bah, you're right, that was stupid.

I did want to add tho, that his call on the flop was terrible.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Had to Call

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Your opponent is on a freeroll - it happens. I refuse to believe that anybody here would not have done what you did. Sorry, you are just going to have to lose some money on hands like this. Move on, you'll do fine.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Yeesh... I wouldn't lay this down. Chances are you split the pot. Sucks that he's on a freeroll but what can you do? He caught the perfect turn card and it's all upside for him. I would think the supermajority of the time you're in this spot your Broadway is good. Folding gives up way too much.

ScottieK

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

I have to agree with riverDood. The $1000 bet on the flop was small. It was only 10% of the callers stack. With a $2300 pot, a $3000 bet would have most likely made him fold. Go with the saying "I would rather win a small pot, than lose a big one"
I also think the flop call was bad!

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The push could mean any ace, and perhaps other hands like J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought of this also. It's a running flush so he might likely know that he's the only one with it so it doesn't necesarily have to be the nuts.

Basically it's a matter of the opponents range that he'd do this with. (opponent dependent) If he was the type that never did this with less than the nuts or at least a flush, well...

Especially if he'd have gone all in with an offsuit A on the turn. If his hand range is a little wider for this on the river and he could've gotten a little tricky and decided to wait with something less than the flush, maybe even a bluffer, then it's not a very easy fold.

Again, knowing your opponents helps.

b

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Thanks for the great topic. I really like to read the responses and learn from everyone. I actually got bumped from a tourney last week 2 spots before the cash on a very similar hand. I had same nut straight and got rivered by a flush. I was upset, but after thinking it over, it's just part of the game. I think it depends on if you are trying to win tourney's or just cash. While I usually just try to survive until cashing, and then push a bit more, each situation is different. My decision was probably a bad one, because I had a cash locked up if I folded, but in your situation, there was so much time before the cut line, I really don't see how you could fold. A win there would set you up to just pick off the blinds and occasional small stacks and be in a position to really place high in the tourney. You had some bad luck, but I don't see any problem with your decision. By the way, if the Villian makes calls like that one after the flop very often, he won't be making too much money anyway.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

just did it good move.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

Heis,

"I couldnt fold that straight although knowing the guys hand, and what he bet, you should."

Not good.

Re: Folding the nuts?
 

He has 4 outs to win the whole pot and 33 cards to split. 4300 in the pot on the turn. Villain bets 9800 into 4300, hero is calling 9800 to win 14100.
4 outs to win -> (+14100) (.08696) = +1226.09
9 outs to lose -> (-9800) (.1957) = -1917.39
33 outs to tie -> (+2150) (.7174) = +1542.39

EV is approximately + 851. I think my math is right, anyone can double check me plz.

Also, this question is still ridiculous because he doesn't always have a flush draw, and so your EV is actually much higher on average, but for the specific situation you are still +EV to call the all in bet on the river. As you can see the EV is significant, its not even a close decision.

Mike