Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

Typical game, six handed. I have AKo on the button. Two callers, I raise, blinds fold and we see the flop three-handed. Flop is K-7-5, no suits. Check to me, I bet, first limper checkraises, second limper calls two cold and I call. First limper seems aggro, second one seems pretty tight so I'm concerned with his flop coldcall on this ragged board and I'm thinking set. Turn is a deuce. Check, check, check. River is a 9. Check to second player who bets, I ignore my read and decide to raise, saying I'll fold to a 3-bet. First player folds, second player now reraises. Why is it that I can read a situation so well but then do something like this anyway, and not only that, but pay it off? Am I the only one who occasionally outplays himself like this?

Jeff

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

And the river 9 means that 86o just got there, and makes 99 into a set.
I think you need to call the river because of the danger you predicted, and the draw which came in. I also 'outplay' myself (as a corollary) by seeing both monsters and bluffs where they ain't and the straightforward interpretation of the betting pattern would be far better....

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

I'm not super-keen on the river raise even if you are ahead. Combined with the possibility of getting 3-bet, it seems like a call is clearly the way to go.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

nice hand until the river. river play seems like a relatively substantial mistake.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

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river play seems like a relatively substantial mistake.

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It is. I don't know why I don't listen to my first instinct sometimes when it's usually correct. I love my turn play and then I deviate from it "just in case" I was wrong so I won't miss bets. Then I cost myself. It's just dumb, don't know where my mind was on this one (or lately for that matter, but that's another issue and another forum). I was just wondering if anyone utilizes "confused" logic like this sometimes and how to not do it ever (obv this isn't SOP for me).

Jeff

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

Why not just bet the turn here and fold to a raise? If the guy has a set, you aren't going to catch up on the river.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

Yeah, great play until the river. I cant see how a raise is proper here

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

I dunno, I will do that at times also. But in this case, with top top, I'd rather see the showdown to make sure I'm correct and avoid the turn checkraise (which has an outside chance of coming from a worse hand). Is this weak thinking here? Obviously, there are many times where bet-folding this turn is a good idea, but I felt better guaranteeing myself a one bet showdown here based on the flop action. Then, of course, I horrifically botched the river play.

Jeff

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

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I'd rather see the showdown to make sure I'm correct and avoid the turn checkraise (which has an outside chance of coming from a worse hand). Is this weak thinking here?

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Yes, if he has a worse hand it's KQ, meaning he'd have to be somewhat stupid to now raise the turn here. So it's v. unlikely. I would be happy taking this line with a complete unknown.

Turn bet is a must. You either go 2 bets when ahead and 1 bet when behind or compared to your line, 2 bets when ahead and 3 when behind.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

I'm totally puzzled.

Why not bet the turn? Couldn't he have raised with middle pair or top pair weaker kicker in that situation. and the other caller could have a draw or just a K. You seemed to have played this awfully scared given your hand, the number of players, and the flop.

And after you checked the turn, I think raising the river and is fine since he could be betting just KQ. Calling the reraise isn't horrible given the pot-size, but you're most likely beat.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

There's nothing wrong with suspecting an opponent has hand X and then changing one's supposition based on subsequent information. But here your opponent confirmed your suspicion. With you raising pre-flop and then raising the flop, your initial read for this tight player made sense. He'd expect you to bet your A-K (the most common hand opponent put you on when you raise preflop) again on the turn, so he'd continue to play possum, trying to trap the first limper.

As to your first question, I think we tend to subconsciously get entitlement disease when we have premium hands and improve on the flop. Maybe something like: "I have A-K. Cool! Ooh, and lookie here, I now have TPTK. This baby's mine." Maybe that somehow colors our objectivity when the turn and river are apparent blanks. I dunno. I think I see that type of thing more when somebody has A-A, K-K or A-K than with other hands that end up being TPTK. And as to your second question, no, you're not the only one who does this.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

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Typical game, six handed. I have AKo on the button. Two callers, I raise, blinds fold and we see the flop three-handed. Flop is K-7-5, no suits. Check to me, I bet, first limper checkraises, second limper calls two cold and I call. First limper seems aggro, second one seems pretty tight so I'm concerned with his flop coldcall on this ragged board and I'm thinking set. Turn is a deuce. Check, check, check. River is a 9. Check to second player who bets, I ignore my read and decide to raise, saying I'll fold to a 3-bet. First player folds, second player now reraises. Why is it that I can read a situation so well but then do something like this anyway, and not only that, but pay it off? Am I the only one who occasionally outplays himself like this?

Jeff

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Great post. It's hands like these where I auto-pilot away from my read and end up losing 2 extra BBs that keep me from being a big winner in this stupid game that I sometimes kind of play.

I wish I understood why I did it... but I don't yet. Probably some sort of fear of being constantly outplayed since I am such a tight player. Hopefully I will figure it out some day... I doubt it though.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

I think your read on the flop is excellent, so I liked the fact that you didnt 3 bet the flop. But I do not like your turn play. By the turn this pot has gotten pretty big (approx 6.25BB) You need to bet this turn and give your opponents a chance to fold(if they both call with lesser hands you also make money but youd much rather see both or atleast one of your opponents fold). I know a turn bet is inconsistent with your flop read but you need to bet this turn in case your read is wrong. No read is 100% accurate. Now if the flop coldcaller checkraises the turn then you can make your fold since his preflop play and flop play combined with his turn play all point to a set.
One more thing, do I ever make the mistake your talking about in this hand. Absolutely never, I play perfect poker only. Seriously though, I play poker nearly every day, and every time I play I make mistakes, sometimes small mistakes, sometimes really serious mistakes. My goal is to always play perfect, it never happens, but thats no big deal. I think its healthy to have unrealistic goals. Poker is still a guessing game since we cant see our opponents hole cards, which means mistakes like the one you made are going to happen from time to time.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

I don't think Jeff raised on the flop, Andy. He bet, a guy raised and the other guy coldcalled two. Jeff then just called.

If I were the guy who coldcalled two on the flop, I would be hard pressed to check my set to Jeff in order to let him bet the turn.

So overall, I agree with many of the others that Jeff should have bet the turn.

If the first guy checkarises the turn, eff might well 3 bet as the first guy's raise might be b/c he's thinking "wtf, I checked the turn bcause I was scared of the coldcaller but the coldcaller checked the turn and it's now Jeff who is betting after he just called my flop checekraise. I am going to hit it again with my KT".

But if the second guy chcekraises Jeff (particularly if he does it after the first guy calls Jeff's bet), then Jeff can probably find a fold although one still wonders how in hell the second guy can confidently check his set on the turn when Jeff did not show much strenghth on the flop.

Interesting hand.

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

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Why not just bet the turn here and fold to a raise? If the guy has a set, you aren't going to catch up on the river.

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Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

The middle caller is a solid player. I think he would bet a king here or a straight draw. His check-cold call of two bets on that board screamed monster to me for some reason. I can see the point you are making though.

Jeff

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

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Am I the only one who occasionally outplays himself like this?

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No. I do it sometimes and it's clearly a leak. I am working on it. One thing that helps me, I think, is I have pokertracker and I can track W$SD% and see that it is going down or up. Somehow trying to keep that number high, helps me make these laydowns.

RESULTS
 

In case it wasn't clear from my first post, villian won this hand with a set of 5's when I paid off his river reraise. Thanks for your comments folks, very helpful and more are welcome.

Jeff

Re: RESULTS
 

Is this the same Jeffage who made that mind boggling laydown of aces-up when he sensed his opponent had rolled eights in stud? After a correct fold like that how can you not fully trust yourself? That $60 on the river would have paid for your dinner on the 17th, man. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Mike Emery

Re: RESULTS
 

Don't give me that much credit - it was just aces. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Jeff

Re: Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It
 

I think you should a) bet when it gets checked to you, b) fold on the turn if the tightish player raises/checkraises.

If he checkraises you know you're beat, so you're losing one BB. By your line (checking the turn) you let the agro draw and the tight draw (if he hasn't setted already), and are still going to pay that one BB by calling a river bet.

If he's tight he's very rarely going to bluff-bet this river, if he has KQ or the like he'll probably call your turn bet, and not CR

So in my mind you're letting them draw, losing value when ahead, and going to pay the same amount if behind - only you get the pat on the back of seeing the winning hand (he bets river, you call and see set), instead of folding when you know you're beat (when he CR that set on turn)