Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

I think I played this hand well up to the turn. When the board paired, I got gun shy. Did I just flat out wuss out, or can an argument be made for calling here?

This is my second post tonight regarding flush draw flops. I am still trying to figure out how to maximize the wins with these hands.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 22.25 BB

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

UTG+1 could have flopped the str8 or be pushing the 2nd nut flush. I think either way he'd be looking to drive out anyone else that's drawing to a better hand.

I'd raise the turn to see where I stand. With two others happily cold-calling along, you're getting the equity.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

What is your read on the preflop raiser? Depending on this read I think cold-calling is the worst option. Reraise or fold.

Since you made it to the flop, why are you raising it?

Why would you raise the turn?

You played the turn and river well but misplayed preflop and flop in my opinion - except the flop cap is good.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

*grunch*

I think I call here. Villain has something he likes a LOT on a Queen-high board. I'm thinking QQ, AA, or KK. Of course, if he has QQ you're boned no matter what, and even if he doesn't, his level of aggression suggests that if you raise, it's coming back 3 to you. Right now you're getting 13 to 1 to call. 6.5:1 on a raise, and if you get 3-bet it'll be what, 7:1? You've got 9 outs to the flush, but villain is definitely playing like he's got the makings of a full house, so you can't count them all... I don't like 3-betting this turn. Maybe I'm too passive.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

Raising this turn would be bad on several levels.

The first flop raise is also no good. Look at the action. Why are you trying to isolate yourself against what is probably a much better hand, while driving out potential second-best-hand-makers?

If you were on the button with these guys inbetween you and the bettor, that's when you raise.

Pre-flop is also a concern.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

anyone else muck this PF?

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

*Grunch*
I would have been tempted to fold this preflop, at a guess the raiser either has you dominated, or has a high pair.

Anyway, on the flop, I would have been tempted to just call, a raise is possibly +ev, but only if everybody (as in this case) comes along for the ride.

Rest is fine, UTG+1 has to show you QQ or JJ.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

The pf play is not default. You need to justify it based on the players already in the hand and the likely actions behind you. I most likely fold.

Just call the flop lead. If the pot ends up raised and 3+ way you can think about pumping your draw for value. Raising doesn't make it more likely that you're going to win, and though you might get calls anyway given the coordinated flop there's no point risking it.

Raising the turn would be stupid. UTG+1 has taken all you've served up on a coordinated board and asked for more. The cost of calling the turn will be at least partially compensated by overcalls so you certainly don't want to knock them out and/or make it more expensive for you. You have nothing to protect and no equity edge to push. Call good sir or madam.

Way to make your hand on the river.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

grunch

fold preflop

flop was good ^_^

call turn is correct, that 8 possibly boats a set so you could even be drawing dead here, but you have the equity to continue

i just call the river as well, there is still a good chance you are behind. when you are you are behind you probably lose more when you get 3bet as well which makes it more painful. and when you are ahead you could only manage 1 more BB as you could lose the overcall.



edit: actually you flop such a monster draw a call to keep people in wouldnt be a mistake, although you got lucky with the CCers.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

Ok, Maybe i'm tired...

Preflop, Why you cold calling? FOLD IT!

Why the hell did you raise the flop?
-Kills the field,
-You're Drawing,
-You have no value if the field die
-You're behind.


Turn is fine,
River is standard.

I'm so baffled as to why people are happy with it!?!?!?!

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

yeah, raising this flop sucks.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I played this hand well up to the turn. When the board paired, I got gun shy. Did I just flat out wuss out, or can an argument be made for calling here?

This is my second post tonight regarding flush draw flops. I am still trying to figure out how to maximize the wins with these hands.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 22.25 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold preflop.

I don't like your flop raise. You're only four-handed, and raising the bet has a good chance of chasing out the two players who checked behind you. It worked out this time, and the flop cap is good.

The turn is fine - I don't think you have enough equity with only three opponents to make this a value raise.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

yes to the preflop fold unless UTG+1 has loose raising standards

You got 12 outs to either the nut straight or flush. At least one of the cold callers must be making a mistake by calling. I like it but would stop short of the cap.

am calling once the board pairs.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I played this hand well up to the turn. When the board paired, I got gun shy. Did I just flat out wuss out, or can an argument be made for calling here?


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke?

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

:grunch: Nope the turn looks good to me.

I would be more concerned about cold calling preflop with A10s.

Also the raise on the flop is a little iffy because you have have to be sure you have at least 3 callers, which you lucky did end up with.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

raising the turn would be worse than raising that flop, which was not very good.

You need to ask yourself why you are raising, and what will, or should likely, happen when you raise. You do not want to face the field with 2 bets cold.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

Definitely fold pre-flop. I like the flop-raise, not so much the flop cap because you may lose too many people here. The turn is scary for me, because QQ or JJ are definitely possibilities for the UTG+1, so we're drawing dead, but you have to call. Raise on the river is standard, and looks like it worked out, but you did dodge some bullets here.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The first flop raise is also no good. Look at the action. Why are you trying to isolate yourself against what is probably a much better hand, while driving out potential second-best-hand-makers?

If you were on the button with these guys inbetween you and the bettor, that's when you raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the OP would be well advised to try and soak in the concepts of relative position and how to apply it.

There is the argument that Hero could get a free card by raising here, but I think calling the initial bet is better. It's better to take advantage of the equity edge by calling this and not facing potential callers with 2 bets than going for a free card you are likely not to get anyhow.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

If raising the flop is a mistake it's still clearly +EV, and I'm not even sure it's a mistake. You're a favorite HU against his range right now (you're even a solid favorite if he has AA/KK and still have 40% equity if he has queens) and on this flop you're nearly ALWAYS going to get at least one cold-caller.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

Fold preflop, call the flop.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If raising the flop is a mistake it's still clearly +EV, and I'm not even sure it's a mistake. You're a favorite HU against his range right now (you're even a solid favorite if he has AA/KK and still have 40% equity if he has queens) and on this flop you're nearly ALWAYS going to get at least one cold-caller.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just pokerstoved it, and here are the assumptions and results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

740,460 games 0.750 secs 987,280 games/sec

Board: Qc 8c Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 55.7155 % [ 00.56 00.00 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 37.8376 % [ 00.34 00.04 ] { AcTc }
Hand 3: 04.0630 % [ 00.00 00.04 ] { JdTd }
Hand 4: 02.3839 % [ 00.02 00.00 ] { random }

I still think the call is better. That being said, if one of the other two clowns gets a wild hair up his ass and checkraise 3 bets, a cap is good. It might sounds strange, but I think you understand how I could not like the raise on this flop but at the same time love the cap.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
anyone else muck this PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

not I

EDIT: nm I was thinkin 6-max, where I raise it up all day long

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

My two cents (more like centavos). I only like the turn play on this hand. Everything else has issues.

Preflop is an easy fold, unless the guy is an 80VPIP/50PFR guy. Then you would raise.

Flop raise drives out the folks you want in. Put those two on your buddy list - they're lovely. I do like the flop cap. On the flop you have about 33% equity give or take in the pot. Once you know those two are coming along for the ride you are making a profit by capping. Kudos.

Turn is fine. I would have kicked the dog because UTG+1 likely just boated up.

Others are saying the river raise is standard. I don't like it. Unless UTG+1 is an idiot, you can reduce his likely hands down to just a few choices:

AA - 3 ways
KK - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways
JJ - 3 ways
88 - 1 way

Of those possiblilies you like 9 of them and hate 7 of them. I would think it unlikely that you would get a lot of cold callers on the river (you got 2/3 - amazing). Most of the time you will drop off those guys. If the villain has QQ, JJ, or 88 you will get repopped on the river.

The river play is anything but "standard". It all depends on the cold callers (assuming the villain is sane). He is betting into you on a straightening, flushed, and possibly boated board. I would give him a double chance of the QQ, JJ, and 88 based on this. (9 ways you like the outcome, 14 you hate it). HU is a slam dunk decision here - you call and pray he is overplaying AA or KK. Assuming you think you will get one cold caller on a raise the EV is:

calling (and getting 2/3 overcalls): 9/23(3BB) - 14/33(1BB) = .57BB

calling (and getting 3 overcalls): 8/23(4BB) - 14/33(1BB) = .96BB

If you raise and think you will get one cold caller (at Party 1/2 this is even a bit unlikely with how rockish it is) you will get repopped and lose 3BB when you are down and you will get called and win 4 BB when up. EV:

9/23(4BB) - 14/23 (3BB) = -.26BB

Say you do get the two cold callers all the way down. You would win 6BB:

9/23(6BB) - 14/23(3BB) = .52BB

All these assume a sane villain. Knowing that, this is an easy call. Actually, maybe not so easy - but my first blush when I looked at the hand was to call the river. I sat down and plugged at it to see if that made sense. Given all variables it is easly the right decision.

Take care.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If raising the flop is a mistake it's still clearly +EV, and I'm not even sure it's a mistake. You're a favorite HU against his range right now (you're even a solid favorite if he has AA/KK and still have 40% equity if he has queens) and on this flop you're nearly ALWAYS going to get at least one cold-caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree i don't dislike the flop raise at all. FWIW i have his flop equity at 45%. If we get just one cold caller on a board that has likely hit some people we give up alot of value by not jamming the flop. What hands are calling one here that aren't calling two?

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I played this hand well up to the turn. When the board paired, I got gun shy. Did I just flat out wuss out, or can an argument be made for calling here?


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would this be a joke? I am trying to improve my play of draws, and I think I currently throttled my aggression a little too high for these situations. I think some lucky rivers (including this hands) have clouded my view of what a correct play is. You know, good results != good decision.

I think my problem right now is I keep hearing (from SSHE), "Do what you can to win when the pot is big." Against loose, weak players, I think to me that means betting and raising with strong draws. I am probably wrong and, therefore, am seeking advice. So far, it sounds like I have misplayed these quite a bit.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

Looks good to me.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

grunch

pf-Unless villain is very LAG I fold. I'm not sure CC'ing is a very good option.

flop-If BB, UTG are likely to CC here with lot's of stuff I like the raise, cap.

turn- IF UTG doesn't have a boat, you have ~30% equity. Call and encourage calls behind you.

river--UTG+1 didn't raise, so I think your good here. I like the raise.


Try and include reads next time.

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Others are saying the river raise is standard. I don't like it. Unless UTG+1 is an idiot, you can reduce his likely hands down to just a few choices:

AA - 3 ways
KK - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways
JJ - 3 ways
88 - 1 way

Of those possiblilies you like 9 of them and hate 7 of them. I would think it unlikely that you would get a lot of cold callers on the river (you got 2/3 - amazing). Most of the time you will drop off those guys. If the villain has QQ, JJ, or 88 you will get repopped on the river.

The river play is anything but "standard". It all depends on the cold callers (assuming the villain is sane). He is betting into you on a straightening, flushed, and possibly boated board. I would give him a double chance of the QQ, JJ, and 88 based on this. (9 ways you like the outcome, 14 you hate it). HU is a slam dunk decision here - you call and pray he is overplaying AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG+1 just called UTG's river bet. Don't you think he would have raised a boat?

Re: Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?
 

My Feeling is why raise the river and not the turn. If you are going to call the turn because you were scared of a boat well on the river remember a boat still beats you so why raise. giving him a c/r opportunity.

Just my .02