33 in blind war
 

Villain is a fairly good player but overaggressive in steal situations. His stats are 30/25/1.3 with a 45 atsb.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

Re: 33 in blind war
 

whats he calling you on the river with? I doubt he folds a better hand since you checked the turn


if he settles down post flop, I 3 bet this PF since hes so aggresive with his raises, if hes balls crazy post flop HU too, then I just call.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

I don't think the river bet has any merit here at all.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

ok, this looks bad to me. this is a very familiar heads-up dynamic. my general impression of it is thus:

- late position is last flop aggressor
- turn checks through
- on a river blank expect to see a bet out about 80% of the time. if he checks it is almost always a marginal hand wanting to see showdown cheap. like really almost always.

is my thinking off?

Re: 33 in blind war
 

I agree that it is fine until the river. I can't think of a single worse hand that is calling you here, or a single better hand that is folding. I would be thrilled to get to do the old river check and pray.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

Yea, this was what I thought as soon as I bet the river. Anyways, villain folded.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

As others have said, betting the river has no value.

If he bets the turn, are you calling and folding the river UI?

If he bets the river, you are calling, right?

Does anyone 3-bet this preflop against someone who's ASB is this high?

Re: 33 in blind war
 

[ QUOTE ]
As others have said, betting the river has no value.

If he bets the turn, are you calling and folding the river UI?

If he bets the river, you are calling, right?

Does anyone 3-bet this preflop against someone who's ASB is this high?

[/ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet every pp in this situation.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet every pp in this situation.

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Well sometimes I 3-bet. Other times I call and raise any flop. It is just that this time I opted for the later.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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I 3-bet every pp in this situation.

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How does 3-betting 33 make you money?

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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I 3-bet every pp in this situation.

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How does 3-betting 33 make you money?

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If our opponent is raising the top 50% of his hands, 33 has a slight equity disadvantage at 49%. Reraising may make it easier for us to win postflop though. Also, 3-betting will help you in the future by making him think twice about trying to steal. I don't know if we should always be reraising here, but it certainly seems like it might have merits.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

I 3-bet because pps dont hit many flops and I get bigger folding equity.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

Let's talk about the flop:

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Villain is a fairly good player but overaggressive in steal situations. His stats are 30/25/1.3 with a 45 atsb.

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Preflop: ... SB raises, Hero calls.

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Flop: (4 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... SB checks

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K42 rainbow and this Villain doesn't make a continuation bet?

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... Hero bets, SB raises

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Never saw that one coming [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Is betting 33 into an almost certain checkraise a good idea? Either we are far behind or he is bluffing and I don't really have any idea how likely these possibilities are. My view is that the risk of a bluff is high enough that we want a showdown and shouldn't make a plan that involves folding.

Case 1: He's slowplaying. Betting the flop is bad and 3-betting is worse. We've already invested 75% of the price of a showdown and the flop isn't even over.

Case 2: It's a bluff with at least six outs but quite possibly the elaborate bluff is based on something like 65 or 53. It might appear that raising pays off here, but does it? Couldn't we have scooped up 2 BB by just sitting back and letting him attack our weakness on the turn and river? Compare that to how the hand played out and bet/3-bet doesn't look very attractive. It's very possible that we took a gigantic risk to wind up with less than the no-risk play would have made us.

The turn is a classic example of the free card play gone awry. You only get this free card when you have the best hand. That you can't find a bet here underscores how far ahead of your hand your flop 3-bet was.

The good thing about the river bet is he is almost always bust and folding so you get to cover up. There are two other unlikely possibilities:

1. He really does have the monster and is trying to recoup the checkraise he missed on the last street. Unusual but not a bad idea on his part.

2. The eight hit his hand and he will call. Oops.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

easy, easy turn bet.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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Reraising may make it easier for us to win postflop though.

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You mean it might help him get away from his hand when he misses the board.

This is supposed to be a good thing?

Re: 33 in blind war
 

I like your analysis. The only part I had problem with is the fact that you said

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The turn is a classic example of the free card play gone awry. You only get this free card when you have the best hand. That you can't find a bet here underscores how far ahead of your hand your flop 3-bet was.

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But I think a huge reason for not betting this turn is the A that fell. With most turns, I think we bet.

I like the idea about betting on the river to not give away your cards, and therefore information. Although I do think the bet is slightly -EV in the current hand, perhaps not giving away this information could be good. As a counter point though, shouldn't we check so that we can see his cards? If we are a better player, we will be able to use the information better than he can use the information about our cards. Furthermore we have position on him, so again, trading a look at each others hands has more benefit for you.

P.S. I love this new Quick Reply. I don't have to use the back button to constantly look at the whole thread again.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Reraising may make it easier for us to win postflop though.

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You mean it might help him get away from his hand when he misses the board.

This is supposed to be a good thing?

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He does have 6 outs when the board misses him, and therefor 25% equity in a 6 BB pot. I think winning it immediately is good. I do understand your point about wanting him to bluff more money at us when he is behind though.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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He does have 6 outs when the board misses him, and therefor 25% equity in a 6 BB pot. I think winning it immediately is good. I do understand your point about wanting him to bluff more money at us when he is behind though.

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The typical situation arises when he has K8 on a Q74 flop. It is unlikely that you will get a player like this away from his hand on the flop. If you call preflop he will bet the flop and if you 3-bet preflop he will peel a card getting 7-1. So if he is going to hit his hand on the turn all I can say is too bad.

The crossroads arrives at the turn. He needs to consider that he may have the best hand here plus he could improve. 2 BB hang in the balance according to whether he decides to keep going or checkfold. Six outs on the river don't begin to pay for that in a 4 BB pot and don't forget that you could be holding a set by now. You really don't want him to find this fold.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

If you can't fold to the flop checkraise I think you should have checked the flop. How often does a guy like this check the flop? A good, overaggressive player who raised preflop would rather see a K42 rainbow flop than have sex . In my experience this is almost always a monster or him trying to represent a monster by checkraising. However, the frequency of this "fake monster checkraise" isn't enough that you want to induce the raise by betting. Instead maybe induce some bluff turn and river bets and get to showdown. The only reason I would bet the flop is if I know he would only raise with a better hand, in which case I can save myself 1.5 BB by bet/folding. I hate the flop 3bet.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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The typical situation arises when he has K8 on a Q74 flop. It is unlikely that you will get a player like this away from his hand on the flop. If you call preflop he will bet the flop and if you 3-bet preflop he will peel a card getting 7-1.

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I think the situation you described is not typical. This is an agressive stealer, so he not have an overcard to the board, plus an overcard to the middle card. He may peel on the flop in your situation, but do you think he peels after your 3-bet when:

1. He has 86s and the board comes KT3
2. He has J6o and the board comes Q97
3. He has 44-66 and the board comes A87

I am probably doing the opposite now, and comming up with atypical flops in the other direction, but I do think that often we will be able to take it down with a bet on the flop.

Calling and raising most flops seems like it has merits too. But he will get to the turn more likely in that scenario (at least that is my opinion, I could be wrong), and I would rather him not see the turn.

These two lines are different, but seem close in value. I think metagame is important when you have two lines that are close in value, and I think the preflop 3-bet might be better for metagame.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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I like the idea about betting on the river to not give away your cards, and therefore information. Although I do think the bet is slightly -EV in the current hand, perhaps not giving away this information could be good. As a counter point though, shouldn't we check so that we can see his cards? If we are a better player, we will be able to use the information better than he can use the information about our cards. Furthermore we have position on him, so again, trading a look at each others hands has more benefit for you.

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I was being a little tongue-in-cheek about hiding this hand. To be clear I feel that the real risk of losing your money totally outweighs the showing cards issue.

It is better to muck both hands than see both hands for two reasons:

1. You only get to see one hand but five people get to see yours. It's hard to be smart enough to overcome those odds.

2. When Villain folds the river you already know everything you need to know about his hand. He made a big move with nothing. But you have a very interesting and enlightening hand to show.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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1. He has 86s and the board comes KT3

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Thank you for reminding us you might hit a set. The chance that he might not actually have his six outs because of a set or domination is very real.

I guess you really wanted KT2? If he bluffs the flop with 86 and checkfolds the turn that is 1 SB versus a chance to win 9 SB by hitting on the turn. Slightly +EV for him compared to checkfolding but no big deal. But if he fires a second or even third barrel then he loses heavily. Overall this case is not bad for the preflop call.

I could make a similar argument about case #2 but really I'm not sure you can get your flop fold here anyway.

Case #3 makes me wish I had reraised preflop. You might actually pull this off although it's far from a lock. Move one of the spots into the playing zone and he'll sweat a lot more.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

[ QUOTE ]


1. You only get to see one hand but five people get to see yours. It's hard to be smart enough to overcome those odds.


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holy eff...I cant believe I've never even thought of that. Seriously, i feel like the universe just opened up or something and a ray of light just smacked me in the forhead.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

Wow, thanks for the great replies stellar. FWIW, I was indeed expecting him to c/r me when he checked. I also fully intended to 3-bet him. This move oop from an aggressive opponent is more often a chance to get a free card and when I bet he raises not wanting to show weakness. I checked the turn because I figured he was capable of a c/r bluff on the turn.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

i don't understand why you didn't check the flop if you want a free card. When he checkraises the flop I think you should be less desirous of a free card because you are either way behind or significantly ahead (he's drawing to 6 outs). If you're way behind you're rarely getting that free card, you have a very weak draw, and you are only saving one small blind if you intend to showdown. If you're ahead you want him to keep bluffing.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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easy, easy turn bet.

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Re: 33 in blind war
 

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Seriously, i feel like the universe just opened up or something and a ray of light just smacked me in the forhead.

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http://homepage.mac.com/hodelas/dadd.../the_light.jpg

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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A good, overaggressive player who raised preflop would rather see a K42 rainbow flop than have sex .

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UNREAL FUNNY [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 33 in blind war
 

This hand is much easier to play against a light steal-raiser if you re-raise preflop, rather than call.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

Stellar, your point is interesting, but there's a problem with it.

1. Anytime you call with a small pair you figure to be either a slight favorite or a huge dog.

2. Since the odds are against the villain holding a PP, the odds are that you are a slight favorite preflop.

3. You would therefore theoretically show value against somebody who openraised any two, and continuation bet each street, simply by calling down.

4. However, let's face it, your preflop edge sucks. Whatever preflop edge you had might well be diminished by a villain who just checked unfavorable flops, but bet when he hit any piece of the board.

5. Therefore, I like 3-betting preflop because the hand gets much easier to play postflop. Your fold equity from raising the turn/river can't be underestimated.

6. Also, metagame blah blah.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stellar, your point is interesting, but there's a problem with it.

1. Anytime you call with a small pair you figure to be either a slight favorite or a huge dog.

2. Since the odds are against the villain holding a PP, the odds are that you are a slight favorite preflop.

3. You would therefore theoretically show value against somebody who openraised any two, and continuation bet each street, simply by calling down.

4. However, let's face it, your preflop edge sucks. Whatever preflop edge you had might well be diminished by a villain who just checked unfavorable flops, but bet when he hit any piece of the board.

5. Therefore, I like 3-betting preflop because the hand gets much easier to play postflop. Your fold equity from raising the turn/river can't be underestimated.

6. Also, metagame blah blah.

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Your preflop edge is negligible. The immediate EV of raising compared to just calling is roughly zero.

Postflop you have the button which is good but 33 has serious negative implied odds which is bad. Your point #4 is just an unfortunate fact of life. The most important piece of information about this pot is whether he has paired his hand. He knows, we don't, and so we are going to suffer for our knowledge disadvantage.

The key point in your argument is #5. I actually think you have it backwards. Calling and using the button to play way ahead/way behind is easy. Clobbering him when I hit a set is also easy. Trying to figure out whether to bet the turn and river after 3-betting preflop and betting the flop is much more difficult.

Anyway "easy" is not what matters. We want to maximize EV and that means maximizing his mistakes while minimizing ours. Any strategy based on fold equity is suspect in this situation. The reason is that it would be quite unusual for Villain to make an incorrect fold blind-versus-blind when we are holding a pair. Moreover most of the bad folds he will make will be minor--folding draws that should have peeled--and will spare him the much bigger mistake of putting money in on the river with a losing hand. By taking the initiative you are pressuring him to play correctly.

Re: 33 in blind war
 

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[Calling and using the button to play way ahead/way behind is easy.

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Not with 33. You're NEVER WA by definition when you hold 33. This is precisely the point.

FTOP says that YOU will be the most likely to make mistakes, not your opponents, due to the lack of flops that look favorable to you. Absent a set, your hand value will necessarily be ambiguous on all streets.

Your opponent, by contrast, will make a pair 1 in 3 flops, and if he's holding big overs, or ace-rag, he'll often peel the turn and make a pair bigger than your 33 about 10% of the time. So he'll like many boards by the turn.

Three betting this preflop means that under FTOP, your opponent is going to be more likely to make mistakes, because he will put YOU on the wrong hand, and will sometimes fold a better hand on a scary flop or turn.