I always pay off
 

Party 5/10, opponent is like 25/11 I guess.

I open black AJ UTG, BB defends.

flop Ac 4d 7d, check-bet-call
turn 8s, check-bet-raise

I almost always call down these turn checkraises regardless of board texture if I have TPGK here (GK = 9 or better, in this case). tell me if I'm wrong pls.

Re: I always pay off
 

I pay off too much here as well. I dunno. Im gonna start folding in spots like this more I think. I just havent been shown as many turn cr bluffs as usual lately.

-Mike

Re: I always pay off
 

thats tough. Its probably a good fold, but Id have to know his intricacies first. Like will he make retarded plays at the pot, or be willing to CR a pair + draw...etc or does he make solid raises that have u drawing for 3 outs at best.

Against just numbers this is tough, but some that do help in PAhud are the Call Continuation Bet and FOld Continuation bests...along with raise turn and Won SD when Raise Turn stats. Over a decent number of hands it can help clear some of these situations up. (on the table I have VPIP, PFR, Tot AF, Went to SD, Attempt to steal, Fold BB to steal and Call/Fold CB).

Still hard to hit the button to muck. Anyway, those numbers I mentioned could help u out.

Re: I always pay off
 

I call these down and write it off to metagame. If the board were significantly more dangerous i'd consider a fold.

Surf

Re: I always pay off
 

dude i basically call down here with no pair top kicker.

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call these down and write it off to metagame. If the board were significantly more dangerous i'd consider a fold.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]
That adds up to be a pretty expensive metagame purchase.
I'm not saying I auto-fold (or even fold at all) in spots like this. I usually call too. But here's what happens inside my head:

Flop: *Yay, I hit an ace...time to bet my lock hand*

Turn: *Good card, I still feel pretty safe*....(Our House gets raised).....*WTF!! OK, I could be drawing dead, BUT...I think most likely either I have outs to his two pair or I can be ahead to a margin of error for his bad play...I'll call*

River: *SH!T I missed. But the pot's too big at this point....I only have to be good 1 in XX times....I CALL AGAIN*

(Disappointment sets as villain shows AK or A8 or his set)

*What a fish I am...I KNEW I should've mucked on the turn, but I keep doing this. I wonder if other 2+2ers also do this*

Can anyone relate?

Re: I always pay off
 

folding here would be absolutely horrible.
this post should be about whether to threebet here, jesus.

Re: I always pay off
 

I call this down almost always as well. I certainly get shown A2 or a diamond draw or other crap often enough.

Re: I always pay off
 

Against a 25/11 in the party 5/10?

-Mike

Re: I always pay off
 

yes.

Re: I always pay off
 

Selective memory maybe? I see TAGs take shots at me a not-infrequent amount of the time. I'm too lazy/tired to do the math and see how often he has to be raising a worse hand here for our calldown to be good, but at the games I play in (15/30) you can't fold this or you'll get run over. At 5/10 with a UTG vs BB battle you could probably let it go. I can't remember what that game is even like anymore, and I've been told that my play there was probably sub-optimal because I considered metagame too heavily and my play was more suited to 10/20+.

Surf

Re: I always pay off
 

You're probably running bad and always looking at a set, but this would be a terrible fold in general. There are spots to make it, but you better know your opponent and how he will play a flopped ace/flopped monster and everything else really well.

-Michael

Re: I always pay off
 

There're a couple good fellows who I'll fold this to. They make up, like, 10% of the player base, though. If I saw you make a couple of bet bet folds on a board like this I'd start raising for showdown like mad when we got together.

Re: I always pay off
 

I think that many things work against the calldown here. You were UTG when you raised, an ace came out, the turn card did not complete any likely draw, and a generally passive opponent check-raised the turn. Also, the likelihood that this opponent is taking a shot at you based on sensing some weakness you have is low given the title of your post.

As a guess (feel free to rip apart my hand calcs). You are winning about 11% of showdowns against a range of hands (A8s, A8o, A7s, A7o, A4s, A4o, 87s, 87o, 88, 77, 44). You are winning about 80% of showdowns against some random bluff that might include a flush draw, worse pair, or pair plus weak draw. If you need to win 22% of showdowns to break even, then your opponent needs to be bluffing about 14% or more. I don't think it is likely that this passive type of opponent is bluffing this often on this board against an UTG raiser who always calls down. This just isn't a great bluffing opporunity for the BB in my opinion. If there is equity in the calldown getting ~7:2 then there can't be much.


Dave

Re: I always pay off
 

This is exactly my thought process in these situations

Re: I always pay off
 

I call this down; sometimes I three-bet (but not if the player will always fire on the river if I call); there are very few players against whom I lay down here, and a generic 25/11 in the BB doesn't hit that threshhold despite my raise having come from UTG.

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]


Flop: *Yay, I hit an ace...time to bet my lock hand*

Turn: *Good card, I still feel pretty safe*....(Our House gets raised).....*WTF!! OK, I could be drawing dead, BUT...I think most likely either I have outs to his two pair or I can be ahead to a margin of error for his bad play...I'll call*

River: *SH!T I missed. But the pot's too big at this point....I only have to be good 1 in XX times....I CALL AGAIN*

(Disappointment sets as villain shows AK or A8 or his set)



[/ QUOTE ]

lol, 5 stars. i especially love the 'lock hand' part, because i think the same thing.

Re: I always pay off
 

Good situation to discuss. I believe we're usually beat here, but that it's really hard to fold.

One thing I don't think should be discounted is the possibility that the villain has hit some relatively mediocre 2 pair on the flop or turn, especially considering he's calling from bb. In that case, you have a fair amount of outs to hit a better 2 pair.

And I also think that there's something to be said for metagame considerations. If this is an unknown opponent, I don't mind calling down once to make sure he's not pulling this routine with less than top pair; that info is pretty valuable.

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call this down; sometimes I three-bet (but not if the player will always fire on the river if I call); there are very few players against whom I lay down here, and a generic 25/11 in the BB doesn't hit that threshhold despite my raise having come from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should de-emphasize the absolute. I will fold this sometimes depending on the player. But absent a read other than the VPIP/PFR (which means he or I is usually pretty new to the table), I'll see a showdown.

Re: I always pay off
 

Whats your table image, are you stealing alot or a little? Any notes on his blind defense strategies? Is he over aggro? I can't get away from this hand heads up. Call down and take notes. Its def. a WA/WB situation.

Re: I always pay off
 

yeah a specific bead on his play can make it pretty easy, but there is such a large class of hands which fall into this situation that you need a solid basic strategy for it IMO. for instance, change the A to a Q and you have QK...what about QJ? etc...

Re: I always pay off
 

This is going to be a call a lot.

1) If it seems like you might be out of line you need to call here. If he might raise a worse Ace you need to call here. If he may be out of line...

2) If there's a lot of reason to believe you don't think he's f'in around (tight player, doesn't raise the turn often with goods) and he has no reason to believe you are f'in around then we can start thinking about folding but only if we make it past #1. Otherwise next hand.

If we aren't sure calling is going to be best as our relative strength to board is pretty good here.

We can't win them all.

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call these down and write it off to metagame. If the board were significantly more dangerous i'd consider a fold.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]
That adds up to be a pretty expensive metagame purchase.
I'm not saying I auto-fold (or even fold at all) in spots like this. I usually call too. But here's what happens inside my head:

Flop: *Yay, I hit an ace...time to bet my lock hand*

Turn: *Good card, I still feel pretty safe*....(Our House gets raised).....*WTF!! OK, I could be drawing dead, BUT...I think most likely either I have outs to his two pair or I can be ahead to a margin of error for his bad play...I'll call*

River: *SH!T I missed. But the pot's too big at this point....I only have to be good 1 in XX times....I CALL AGAIN*

(Disappointment sets as villain shows AK or A8 or his set)

*What a fish I am...I KNEW I should've mucked on the turn, but I keep doing this. I wonder if other 2+2ers also do this*

Can anyone relate?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

yeah feeling dumb in these spots is a common thing for me, but the times you do take down the pot UI feel extra good

Re: I always pay off
 

I agree. I hate how I feel like on the turn I'm calling because I know I have outs to counterfeit/beat his two-pair, but then on the river when i never improve I have to call because of the pot-size. It's almost counter-inuitive.

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]
Selective memory maybe? I see TAGs take shots at me a not-infrequent amount of the time. I'm too lazy/tired to do the math and see how often he has to be raising a worse hand here for our calldown to be good

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot is 6BB after the turn c/r, so we have to be good 2/7 times here for this to be profitable? Is my thinking off here? Obviously there are metagame considerations, but maybe not so much at 5/10. Ignore that for now.

I usually call down here, but if 2/7 is right, I can't see that being correct. What about calling down a certain portion of the time just to avoid getting steamrolled, or is that just stupid?

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Selective memory maybe? I see TAGs take shots at me a not-infrequent amount of the time. I'm too lazy/tired to do the math and see how often he has to be raising a worse hand here for our calldown to be good

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot is 6BB after the turn c/r, so we have to be good 2/7 times here for this to be profitable? Is my thinking off here? Obviously there are metagame considerations, but maybe not so much at 5/10. Ignore that for now.

I usually call down here, but if 2/7 is right, I can't see that being correct. What about calling down a certain portion of the time just to avoid getting steamrolled, or is that just stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]

would like some feedback please

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]
yes.

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The good players at 5/10 are much more rocks then at 10/20 and higher. And even good players slowplay out of position way to much. Even good players seems to think its a good move to checkcall flop and checkraise turn with a strong hand. In my book its a very fishy move that u use as deception, not as default. With a good hand out of position u play it fast, pretending u are on a draw or a pair u want to protect, hoping he will call down with unhit AJ.

3betting a VPIP25/PFR11 at $5/10 with toppair, ok kicker, at turn is a huge misstake.

If u have enough hands on him and his turnaggression is below 1.5 or something like that I think I could make myself fold. I could also see myself call turnraise and fold river if I dont hit (thinking he is on 2pair and I got 5 outs+3 more outs if board pairs). But normally call down both turn and river.

Re: I always pay off
 

Considering a almost never fold TP when heads up without a very strong read, espically not in blind defense situations.

Re: I always pay off
 

My instict says this(Instantly after looking at this hand).

BB's thoughts: Ok i got an ace, A9 so i'm protecting, Calls.

Wooo i hit my ace, Ill call then Check/Raise.

Wooo check, He bet YES!!! Now he could have AT/AJ/AQ/AK but also KK/QQ/JJ/TT/KQ and trying to make me fold. I'll raise and steal the pot and have him call me down.

Just my thoughts, But i tend to call down as the flop isn't that scary, however if you have PT check his stats and play accordingly.

Re: I always pay off
 

I can never fold this. Sometimes you counterfeit two pr, sometimes you beat a weaker ace, sometimes you make a better two pair, sometimes you catch someone (semi)bluffing b/c the board is ace high and dry. 25/11 will not tell you enough about the player to justify 3-betting or folding. There's this foggy ground inbetween where you can maybe kick some game theory. 3-bet this X% of the time and call down Y% of the time. But you've got a lot of hand value on this board and I'm not mucking here, no matter how bad I'm running.