Flushes are easy 20/40
 

I was rereading Theory of Poker today and this hand made me recall some things that I read. Seat 1 is a decent but not great regular. It's fairly irrevelant, but Seat 7 is a losing player.

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (4.05 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.53 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

6th Street - (5.53 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___?

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Well does he have the king of hearts or not? With hearts being so live, it sure looks like he caught the flush. The other possibility is that your completion confused him and he has not put you on your flush. If so, he has to be worried about you starting with split aces. You have not paired up so he could be betting with kings up, or even aces up (unlikely).

I net out with him having the flush though. I lean towards raising and hoping like hell he does not have the king of hearts, or that he has misread. If he three bets, call and then call the river again. If he just calls the raise and checks into you on the river, then bet.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Ok, he's got trips or a full house. He could have trips or even two pair and bets because he wants to slow you down, he bet now and don't have to call another bet on the river if unimproved, if makes his boat he will earn one more bet (cause you will at least call the river). But if you raise and he reraises, are you gonna throw your hand away? It will just cost you the same amount to see the hand thru. So why complicate things?
Call him down.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Villain didn't play trip fives this passively up until sixth street. AA in the hole isn't likely either. It looks like a big two pair to me. I raise here!

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

I'm willing to wager that he does not have trip eights here. Do you see why?

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Oops! Didn't see the flush, lol. Guess I'm tired (or just lousy)...

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

But what could he have in the hole except two hearts with either a jack or a king (queen is gone)? A small/medium pair maybe? But wouldn't he then folded on 5th? a high pair? Wouldn't he have raised 4th?

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Just a thought, no deep analysis here, but a quick skim of your hand made me think to call 6th and raise the river.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well does he have the king of hearts or not? With hearts being so live, it sure looks like he caught the flush. The other possibility is that your completion confused him and he has not put you on your flush. If so, he has to be worried about you starting with split aces. You have not paired up so he could be betting with kings up, or even aces up (unlikely).

I net out with him having the flush though. I lean towards raising and hoping like hell he does not have the king of hearts, or that he has misread. If he three bets, call and then call the river again. If he just calls the raise and checks into you on the river, then bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love it when someone else posts exactly what I think and I dont have to type it all out. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

One question that is important to think about is the following: if you were Seat 1 and started with a 3-flush, would you call Hero's bet on fifth street without the king of hearts?

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just a thought, no deep analysis here, but a quick skim of your hand made me think to call 6th and raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

I think a "decent but not great" player will call fifth without the king, especially if he doubts you have the flush. Now if this was Chef for example, I would give her credit for a proper read, and decide that she very likely has the king.

If I was drawing to a flush and saw your board, I would fold the hand without the king, especially considering that the queen of spades is no where in sight.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

You definitely have a point about him putting Hero on aces rather than spades. But I still think a fold has to be correct without the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If Hero catches another spade on sixth, are you still going to draw? It could get ugly. But definitely many players will call there, putting Hero on aces because they want that to be his hand...

Now, if Seat 1 reraises 6th street, is there any way Hero's hand is good? Is getting the extra bet on fifth street worth losing the extra bets when Seat 1 didn't draw to a sucker hand?

I guess Hero has some straight flush outs...ha.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Well, I have never played 20/40 so I don't know how many players there are capable of making the all important misread here. Down in the minor leagues of 5/10 where I hang out, there are enough mediocre players for me to go out on the limb and raise on sixth. Unless of course, the hand is against a known solid player.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Remeber, the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is dead. So he can't have the Q. And you are showing JT. So its alot harder for you to beat him if he has a flush (and he thinks you have a flush).

I'd probably 3-bet here. But it's close.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Let us suppose:

1. If Hero raises and Seat 1 has the higher flush, he will reraise, and Hero will call down.
2. If Hero raises and Seat 1 does not have the higher flush, he will not reraise but will call down.
3. Also, suppose that Seat 1 has a flush; if he actually has two pair the situation is in fact slightly worse since he has redraws.

That is, by raising sixth street, Hero gains one bet if ahead and loses two bets if behind. Thus, Hero needs to be correct (i.e., have the better hand) 2/3 of the time for a raise to be correct.

(I am neglecting the 1/17 chance that Hero makes a straight flush. If this happens, and case 1 occurs, and Hero will gain 3 bets: two extra bets will be put in on sixth street, and one extra one on the river. If case 2 occurs there is no difference.)

You still like a raise?

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

6th:He expects you to bet if he checks.If he felt confident that his hand was best,it is likely that he would check-raise.I think your hand is still good.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

I say raise givin the info you provided with the hand and player involved. He is very unlikely to be full; the 8's are dead and he would've raised on 3rd with trips. There is a good chance he has a flush also, but probably not AK. Anything lower you have dominated, plus you still have the one card (K) royal draw for back up if he does have the K. The odds are with you to make it 2 to go on 6th.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

I think you are missing the point. The point is that if Seat 1 should not draw to a flush without the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] if he thinks there is a good chance that Hero has a flush. Given the information of the exposed cards, I think it is clear that Seat 1's most likely starting hand was 3 hearts. Thus although on third street there was no reason to think he had the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], on fifth street there is some reason to believe he does have it. Now, certainly he won't always have that card, and he sometimes he will not even have the flush. And as lstream mentioned, Seat 1 could very well be misreading Hero's hand. But he has to at least give strong consideration to the possibility that Hero has a made flush.

But the point is he has to have the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fewer than one third of the time (see previous post) for raising sixth street to be correct. It's close, but I think calling may be a better option than raising.

Perhaps this is giving my opponent too much credit, but it is not a situation where giving him too much credit is costing the pot. At worst it is costing Hero one bet.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

The main reason that villain may not have the king of hearts is that he puts hero on split aces, with a possible flush draw here, and thus he thinks that any flush is good. The betting sequence could be identical if you did have a high pair.

I think that the question of whether to raise or not is quite close, however. If you raise villain may well assume you have the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the hole, and not three-bet even if he does have the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

There are nine hearts missing, and assuming villain has two in the hole, then the chance that he has the AK high flush is 2/9. This is assuming he is not good enough to fold an A high four flush on 4th or fifth without the King. In that case, a raise is correct.

The question seems to me then just to be a read. Is the player good enough to fold an ace high flush draw on fourth or fifth without the king of hearts. If yes, then call down. If he is unlikely to think of things like this, then raise.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

Blumpkin, do you fold a four-flush in that spot?

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

If I were seat 1 and had Aces up, I would make that same bet on 6th. I think many "decent" players would.

If I were seat 1, and I had a flush, I would make that same bet on 6th even without having a King because I would suspect that Ace that raised on 3rd (hero) probably raised with a pair of aces, which means that my flush is in the lead. I think many "decent" players would think this way.

If I were seat 1, and I had two small pair and a 4 flush, I would make that same bet, because I might very well be in the lead with 2 pair, and might very well improve to a winning flush. I think many "decent" players would think this way.

Consequently, I think a raise is the correct play. The only way you're losing is if he has that King or if he's rolled. In either case, you just have to pay off a nice hand. Far more often, I would think, it is *you* who will be getting paid off.

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

[ QUOTE ]
One question that is important to think about is the following: if you were Seat 1 and started with a 3-flush, would you call Hero's bet on fifth street without the king of hearts?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, especially if I've got a pair to go with my 4-flush. Hero could easily have only 1 pair of aces

Re: Flushes are easy 20/40
 

[ QUOTE ]

Blumpkin, do you fold a four-flush in that spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a tough decision. As it turns out, I was not Hero in the hand, but it was a solid player and Seat 1 knew Hero to be a solid player. To be honest, I probably would not fold in this spot because I would convince myself that the pot is getting fairly large and Hero could have split aces. But I'd be very reluctant because if Hero has a flush, I am nearly dead and will lose many bets, and even if Hero had split aces he could have a 4-flush on fifth street and hit on sixth or seventh. For example, what happens if I call on fifth, and then on sixth I hit and he picks up a fourth spade on board? I'm probably going to check and call sixth there. And in that situation the river might be checked through if I have the best hand. Essentially, it's an issue of reverse implied odds. To sum it up, I might actually make the call, but I wouldn't like it very much, and I certainly think folding may be the best play.

I should remark, however, that against mediocre or bad players, as Seat 1 with a flush draw fifth is a trivial call, and as Hero sixth street is a trivial raise.