10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

No read on anyone as I just sat down and I never play this game anymore, but it has looked good lately so I decided to play. Third street call is debateable with the tight ante structure, but I was closing the action meh.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (2.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

5th Street - (3.30 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___???

What and why with the intention of what on sixth and seventh?

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

Yuk! If the pot was bigger I would say raise to get the other two players out, but with it the size it is, I think this is a fold.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

I make the third-street call all day long. I bet fourth as well. I think fifth is a fold. The bettor probably doesn't have two pair, but he might. Even if he doesn't, he has two more cards to hit, which would leave you with three outs. There are two other players, either of whom is probably drawing live against your stinky two pair. 843 looks like he could have a low. This means two things:

1) You're probably playing for half the pot.

2) It could get expensive.

Of course, you could always call and make a small straight.

If nothing else, folding relieves me of the responsibility of coming up with a game-plan for sixth and seventh. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

Am I the only one that would say 3rd is a fold? Yes, the ante structure proposes tight play and is there more than a minimum chance this hand will scoop? I'm probably not as experienced as most of you guys, but I have a gut feeling this hand is asking for trouble and I'm not suprised about ending up on 5th or 6th facing big troubles - what the heck am I gonna do? I advocate a fold and wait for 3s 4s 5s. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

I have little to no Stud 8 or Better experience as well, but does his hand need to have scooping potential in this situation for a call to be justified? He's getting excellent odds on 3rd street, even if his hand doesn't have a whole lot of two way potential. He could backdoor lots of hands (straights, trips, full houses, good lows) which would entitle him to at least half of a multiway pot. If he catches bad on 4th street, he can just muck his hand, otherwise he can see what develops for what will probably be a fairly good price.

Bear in mind I'm a Stud 8 novice, and this is just my interpretation.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one that would say 3rd is a fold? Yes, the ante structure proposes tight play and is there more than a minimum chance this hand will scoop? I'm probably not as experienced as most of you guys, but I have a gut feeling this hand is asking for trouble and I'm not suprised about ending up on 5th or 6th facing big troubles - what the heck am I gonna do? I advocate a fold and wait for 3s 4s 5s. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I would make this call just about always, and I'm ready to fold 4th immediately if things look bad (you catch good, but they catch better - or you catch bad, period). Your implied odds look like they're big enough to peel.

I don't think I would have bet fourth. A good card fell, but nobody really picked up any bricks. One of those guys has 4 to an 8-low and you're chasing with only 3 to a low. You've still got lots of high chances coming, but your straight needs to hit a gutshot 5 and your 8s are dead for the high straight. So you're looking at sixes up or sevens up as your likely high hand. It might be enough, but I would like to get to 5th cheaply.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

I'd say you're right in theory. The problem is that you will get sucked in with a hand like this, never to bad to fold, never to good to jam. It's multiway now, but from 5th and forward it might be 3-way or just you and the guy with an ace. The real problem with those hands is that you can probably never start jammin. On 4th you want As 3s 4s 5d - start jammin. On 5th you want hands like As 6h 3h 4c 7d/ 8s 7d 5h 2c 6s - start jammin.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

I think you should fold here, because seats 1 and 2 have better lows than you showing, and seat 3 could easily cach Aces up.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

I would like people to fold on fifth. They are more likely to do so if I set them up to do so by betting fourth.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say you're right in theory. The problem is that you will get sucked in with a hand like this, never to bad to fold, never to good to jam. It's multiway now, but from 5th and forward it might be 3-way or just you and the guy with an ace. The real problem with those hands is that you can probably never start jammin. On 4th you want As 3s 4s 5d - start jammin. On 5th you want hands like As 6h 3h 4c 7d/ 8s 7d 5h 2c 6s - start jammin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that you must always wait for those super-strong hands to jam 4th and 5th. All you need to know is that you're probably way ahead of everyone else.

I also don't follow your logic. You seem to be implying that the hand is unprofitable because you need to have jamming hands to be profitable. In this case, all of the important villains picked up something good on 4th:

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- ???
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- Hero
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <--- low

4th street could very well have come down totally different:

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <--- brick
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- brick
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- ???
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- Hero
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <--- brick

All of a sudden, you're staring at mostly garbage boards and the one board that isn't garbage is drawing to an 8 low, which you might beat even if he already has 4 to a low. If the action were checked around to me, I'd bet. I don't have a hand where I would go for 3-4 bets, but it's still a profitable hand to play.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

You can't jam with (76)66? You can't jam with (76)643 when you're looking at garbage boards?

It is easy to get sucked in with a hand like this. You have to know when to get away from it. I think Scags is a good enough player that he has a pretty good idea of when that is. This hand is a little tougher because Scags may well have the best hand, and he still has low and straight possibilities. It's very cheap, his call closes the action, and his hand has a lot of possibilities. I call on third all day long. Some might be better off folding, and you're not giving up a whole lot by doing so.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say you're right in theory. The problem is that you will get sucked in with a hand like this, never to bad to fold, never to good to jam. It's multiway now, but from 5th and forward it might be 3-way or just you and the guy with an ace. The real problem with those hands is that you can probably never start jammin. On 4th you want As 3s 4s 5d - start jammin. On 5th you want hands like As 6h 3h 4c 7d/ 8s 7d 5h 2c 6s - start jammin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that you must always wait for those super-strong hands to jam 4th and 5th. All you need to know is that you're probably way ahead of everyone else.

I also don't follow your logic. You seem to be implying that the hand is unprofitable because you need to have jamming hands to be profitable. In this case, all of the important villains picked up something good on 4th:

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- ???
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- Hero
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <--- low

4th street could very well have come down totally different:

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <--- brick
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <--- low
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- brick
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- ???
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <--- Hero
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <--- brick

All of a sudden, you're staring at mostly garbage boards and the one board that isn't garbage is drawing to an 8 low, which you might beat even if he already has 4 to a low. If the action were checked around to me, I'd bet. I don't have a hand where I would go for 3-4 bets, but it's still a profitable hand to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this gets into those situations about representing your hands. A decent player who has any of those boards should fold on fourth unless they have a decent high draw as well. By my betting I am represnting four to a 6low. If you thought that your villian had this it would be correct to fold your 8-4draw or your 75 draw right? How else am I going to get them to fold by not betting this? Now I understand that if my opponents are terrible and wont fold anyway, than there isn't any point in doing this, but they all seemed competent and thought that there was a decent chance at narrowing the field with a bet. If I only bet with super strong hands outward and inward than good opponents will be able to read me like a book.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

with no read and a small pot I think it's a fold...

however, if you can rule out him having two pair it is a definite raise because you're about even money with him if he has a hand like a238a. However, two pair puts you in pretty bad shape.


Suppose we did raise: you're probably only actually going to have to put in 3 bets total 2 on fifth, 1 on sixth, and a free check on seventh if you don't improve. and if you do improve, you'll gain a bet or so most likely on the river. Also, there is a slight chance he'll fold to the raise on 5th or the bet on 6th (especially if you catch good and he catches bad (thinking you have straight or are freerolling for high on him). I don't think that is enough to justify it. so, with no read, and a tiny pot, I fold

-Lane

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

3rd:Nothing wrong with making this small investment in last position,imo.Good implied odds.You play better than them,right?You don't want to look like a rock & then get no action when you have a real hand.(Metagame).
4th:Good bet.
5th:You're done.Well played.Next hand.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

3rd is not debatable at all - you are a dog in both directions...easy fold.

5th is a no brainer - you are a huge dog in both directions. Chances are high that you opponents have got 7s and 6s somewhere within their hole cards...so your chances of filling to take *half* the pot are slim. Your chances of take low are even worse. You've wasted enough on this hand.

Zee has a nice list of playable 3rd street hands in his pamphlet. I'm pretty sure a pair of 6s aint on the list.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
3rd is not debatable at all - you are a dog in both directions...easy fold.

Zee has a nice list of playable 3rd street hands in his pamphlet. I'm pretty sure a pair of 6s aint on the list.

[/ QUOTE ]

being a dog in both directions doesn't necessarily make it a fold. closing the action here i think this is actually a pretty easy call.

i am pretty sure a hand like a baby pair with another baby is a playable hand here.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Zee has a nice list of playable 3rd street hands in his pamphlet. I'm pretty sure a pair of 6s aint on the list.


[/ QUOTE ] Number 9

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

I think the fact that I close the action and that the pot is multiway and all of my sixes are live makes this an ok call.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Zee has a nice list of playable 3rd street hands in his pamphlet. I'm pretty sure a pair of 6s aint on the list.


[/ QUOTE ] Number 9

[/ QUOTE ]

well, you made me go and pull-down the book from the shelf. I'll admit baby pair with baby kicker is on the list, I forgot that this list isn't one of playable hands, but one of "starting hands" - where he gives his opinions of various starting hands that people play.

What I seem to read on pages 18-19 regarding this hand is that
1) its "dangerous" and "very marginal"
-- I happen to agree

2) its "worth playing only when it appears that no one has a strong hand"
-- in this case, you've got FIVE other players - surely at least one person has a strong hand

3) "you shouldnt play these hands unless the situation appears advantageous"
--- I think 5 others players makes it very DISadvantageous.

4) "you prefer to play this hand heads up with a player whose upcard is lower..."
-- we're talking about FIVE other players, not heads up


However, I'll concede that Zee makes rooms room for certain situations where this hand is playable:
- if your kicker is a SF card
- if you can limp
- if you are heads up against door lower than your pair
- if your opponents are not completely live and your cards are very live

Seems like most on here find the fact that you're on the end as reason enough to peel one off. I think the more weighty factors make this and easy fold:
1) with your call, you're looking at a 6-way hand. This means that you are against other low hands (thus making other babies much more dead than the exposed cards would dictate). It makes the possibility that your 6s are completely dead VERY high. It also makes the possibility that someone is limping with a higher pair (e.g. the guy with the 10 on your right) much more likely.
2) In general, I believe that the tighter the structure, the tighter you need to play. With this structure, I think your best bet is to fold cheaply on hands like these that are "very marginal."

Anyway, based on our informal poll here, Zee was right: "Most players will play small-pair, small-kicker starting hands. They are hard to throw away because they look so good."

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the fact that I close the action and that the pot is multiway and all of my sixes are live makes this an ok call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be willing to bet that at least one, if not both of your other 6s are dead in other people's hole cards by virtue of how many caller limped on 3rd. IF you catch a 6 on 4th, you likely lose the 10 on your right and any busted low draws. The implied odds just arent very good I think.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yuk! If the pot was bigger I would say raise to get the other two players out, but with it the size it is, I think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the pot was bigger, raising will not get any other people out - it would just make the pot bigger.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yuk! If the pot was bigger I would say raise to get the other two players out, but with it the size it is, I think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the pot was bigger, raising will not get any other people out - it would just make the pot bigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, people do not call two big bets cold if they think they are behind in both directions unless they are very loose/stupid. Look at the boards on 5th and tell me which of the other two is likely to call two cold in say a 8BB pot. When the pot gets big you need to maximize your chances of winning it if you have decent equity.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]


No, people do not call two big bets cold if they think they are behind in both directions unless they are very loose/stupid.


[/ QUOTE ]
You must not play on Party much, or else you would know that players are indeed "stupid" and "loose" - even at 10/20. No, people won't call 2 bets if they think they're in bad shape in both directions...in fact, they'll probably dump for 1 bet. Thing is, people severly misread the value of their hand (e.g., raising an open pair of aces with two medium pair into 2 other low draws). Seat 1 and/or Seat 2 might think they've got a good draw for low and call - particularly if, as you suggest, the pot is big.

[ QUOTE ]

Look at the boards on 5th and tell me which of the other two is likely to call two cold in say a 8BB pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both could easily have draws to what *they* think will be the winning hand. Hell, seat 8 might already have an 8 low. Again, under your proposed hypothetical that the pot were bigger, either might call.

[ QUOTE ]
When the pot gets big you need to maximize your chances of winning it if you have decent equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
Indeed, this is true, but is irrelevant to the current discussion, where hero has piss poor equity. 2 pair will likely not take high, and will very likely not take low.

If you're gonna try to suck out a boat, you want those 2 drawing for low to contribute to the pot. If you catch the miracle, your half will be that much bigger. Heck, you might even scoop if the other players don't catch their draws for low.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

You played it straight. 3rd was questionable but not aweful by any means, you were getting a great +EV with the live 6's. I like the bet out on 4th getting at least 1 low to drop. 5th is an easy fold. You rolled craps, cest la vie...

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

my props to knoll & benwood who concisely expressed some good points - thanks grb for the research & stern warnings as these can be big trap hands. However, I disagree that this is a clear fold. Marginal hands are marginal because they can go either way, and the play of them takes skill and patience as there is no indisputable or easy way to play them. I disagree with grb's 'clear fold' mentality because there is some value in this hand depending on the situation. Sure heads up would be better, but without threat of being raised you can play it as a crapshoot. This particular hand benefits from a connected kicker, though the odds on making a low are pretty dead.

I actually would have checked on 4th street without a read on the players hoping to get a free card(unlikely) and then at least I could fold for two bets. Though often agressive play is the answer, your bet is a semi-bluff, and bluffing works better against a smaller pool - too much liklihood that one or more players will catch a good card again.

It was lucky you weren't raised. However, I can't fault you for betting and if I had gotten a read where both a free card and a raise was unlikely, I would have bet too. Fifth street is what makes this a trap hand, as it's harder to fold 2 pair, but you must, especially now that a split pot is likely. You're fortunate that that the ace came sooner than later.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
my props to knoll & benwood who concisely expressed some good points - thanks grb for the research & stern warnings as these can be big trap hands. However, I disagree that this is a clear fold. Marginal hands are marginal because they can go either way, and the play of them takes skill and patience as there is no indisputable or easy way to play them. I disagree with grb's 'clear fold' mentality because there is some value in this hand depending on the situation. Sure heads up would be better, but without threat of being raised you can play it as a crapshoot. This particular hand benefits from a connected kicker, though the odds on making a low are pretty dead.

I actually would have checked on 4th street without a read on the players hoping to get a free card(unlikely) and then at least I could fold for two bets. Though often agressive play is the answer, your bet is a semi-bluff, and bluffing works better against a smaller pool - too much liklihood that one or more players will catch a good card again.

It was lucky you weren't raised. However, I can't fault you for betting and if I had gotten a read where both a free card and a raise was unlikely, I would have bet too. Fifth street is what makes this a trap hand, as it's harder to fold 2 pair, but you must, especially now that a split pot is likely. You're fortunate that that the ace came sooner than later.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some very good points in your post. I do believe that the correct move is to fold on fifth. Welcome to the forums [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
my props to knoll & benwood who concisely expressed some good points - thanks grb for the research & stern warnings as these can be big trap hands. However, I disagree that this is a clear fold. Marginal hands are marginal because they can go either way, and the play of them takes skill and patience as there is no indisputable or easy way to play them. I disagree with grb's 'clear fold' mentality because there is some value in this hand depending on the situation. Sure heads up would be better, but without threat of being raised you can play it as a crapshoot. This particular hand benefits from a connected kicker, though the odds on making a low are pretty dead.

I actually would have checked on 4th street without a read on the players hoping to get a free card(unlikely) and then at least I could fold for two bets. Though often agressive play is the answer, your bet is a semi-bluff, and bluffing works better against a smaller pool - too much liklihood that one or more players will catch a good card again.

It was lucky you weren't raised. However, I can't fault you for betting and if I had gotten a read where both a free card and a raise was unlikely, I would have bet too. Fifth street is what makes this a trap hand, as it's harder to fold 2 pair, but you must, especially now that a split pot is likely. You're fortunate that that the ace came sooner than later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I think these are important concepts, and so I will continue the discussion.

I would first respond by noting that the fundamental rule of split-pot games is that you want to play hands that can scoop or are extremely strong one way. You astutely recognize that this holding in this situation is unlikely to develop into the winning low. Consequently, for it to be playable, you would want to be strong going high, which a pair of 6s clearly is not. I wouldn't play a pair of 6s multi-way in a tightly structured high only game, particularly if I could reasonably assume that the other 6s were dead. I sincerely hope you wouldn't either. That being so, I would certainly not play 6s hoping to win merely the high half of this pot.

Whatever your definition of marginal may be, I think the general principles of 3rd street hand selection apply in all cases. Factors that must be considered include ante/pot size, opponent style, implied odds, *relative* strength of cards, and dead cards. In this case, this "marginal" hands is a clear fold because: the game is tightly structured (you're not losing much by folding), you won't get paid much since you're the chances of a scoop are low, a pair of 6s isn't a strong high hand compared to a pair of 7s, pair of 8s, etc, and because your opponents are reasonably decent, you should have a high suspicion that 1 and maybe both of your remaining sixes are in your opponents hands. These factors, imho, make this hand a clear fold.

Granted, a pair of 6s with a baby kicker would be a very playable, even good hand under other circumstances, such as if no other lows were on the board, if this was a short handed game, if you had good control over your opponents, etc. However, thats just not the case here.

All of us, gamblers that we are, want to find reasons to play hands rather than find reasons to fold hands. The consistent winners develop the reverse tendencies.

good discussion

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

Very nicely put grb. How much would your decision change if this was a 30-60 game with a $5 ante?

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Very nicely put grb. How much would your decision change if this was a 30-60 game with a $5 ante?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think changing this factor alone isn't enough to warrant a call. Here are some scenarios where I give best case scenario (i.e. people are playing with equally marginal hands)

Assuming your 6s are live (highly unlikely) and only the 10 is paired : EV=.199

6s are live, but the 8s are paired : EV = .193

same, except 1 low opponent has a 6 in the hole (very likely) : EV=.171

Just for kicks: Everyone's got absolute junk (very, very, very unlikely) EV = .247

How about when your opponents going low actually have good hands:
1 strong low + 2 other decent lows : EV=.144

Since I see 3 other people representing low, I'd probably play this under the assumption that someone's got a 6. I'm not putting any more money into that pot!

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very nicely put grb. How much would your decision change if this was a 30-60 game with a $5 ante?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think changing this factor alone isn't enough to warrant a call. Here are some scenarios where I give best case scenario (i.e. people are playing with equally marginal hands)

Assuming your 6s are live (highly unlikely) and only the 10 is paired : EV=.199

6s are live, but the 8s are paired : EV = .193

same, except 1 low opponent has a 6 in the hole (very likely) : EV=.171

Just for kicks: Everyone's got absolute junk (very, very, very unlikely) EV = .247

How about when your opponents going low actually have good hands:
1 strong low + 2 other decent lows : EV=.144

Since I see 3 other people representing low, I'd probably play this under the assumption that someone's got a 6. I'm not putting any more money into that pot!

[/ QUOTE ]

Since it's a 6-handed pot, any equity above .166 means Hero is winning if it's an all-in. So at worst, hero is a small dog according to your calculations.

However, I dislike this sort of analysis. I don't like it in Hold'em and I really don't think it's very good for stud. The reason is that you're playing a game with many streets of betting to come, and so the question of whether you should play is one of mostly implied odds.

A better analysis of this situation would seem to be to look at the equity on 4th street after various card combinations fall. If most of the time, equity goes down, then hero is in a situation of strong reverse implied odds (putting money in the pot leads to situations where hero is expected to continue to lose) and a fold is prudent. If it stays mostly constant except it goes up in a few special cases (perhaps any card 5-7), then it's a situation of strong implied odds and folding is wrong.

I don't have the time to play on twodimes right now, so hopefully I'll remember to look into it later if free time becomes available.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

My own very mechanical rules of thumb are such that, unlike Andy, I would probably fold on third street for one reason: both an ace and a ten are active in the hand. I don't like playing small pairs when players start with bricks.

That said, the third-street action-closing call for the bring-in is very likely not a mistake.

I like the fourth street bet as much because of what my hand looks like as what I actually have. It's reasonable to bet the best low draw here. Both the ace and ten checked, so my pair might be good. I'd be more likely to bet here against good players than against duffers.

Fifth street, I hate the idea of raising here, and I am terrified of a rase from the 843 and a reraise from the A8A. I have a backdoor draw to a rough seven, and my two pair might be drawing extremely thin. By the way, did you notice that it isn't just a paired ace but a paired door card?.

I think this is a place to fold.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since it's a 6-handed pot, any equity above .166 means Hero is winning if it's an all-in. So at worst, hero is a small dog according to your calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "winning" you mean there's a positive expectation, then you'd be right...too bad it's not "all-in" on 3rd. If by "small dog" you mean there's a negative expectation, I would agree as well. I don't care how small the negative expectation, if its negative, you don't want to play it. I think you may be confusing the probably of winning the pot (i.e. whether or not you're a dog) with the profitability of trying to win the pot (i.e. whether or not its profitable to play despite being a dog.)

[ QUOTE ]
However, I dislike this sort of analysis. I don't like it in Hold'em and I really don't think it's very good for stud. The reason is that you're playing a game with many streets of betting to come, and so the question of whether you should play is one of mostly implied odds.
A better analysis of this situation would seem to be to look at the equity on 4th street after various card combinations fall. If most of the time, equity goes down, then hero is in a situation of strong reverse implied odds (putting money in the pot leads to situations where hero is expected to continue to lose) and a fold is prudent. If it stays mostly constant except it goes up in a few special cases (perhaps any card 5-7), then it's a situation of strong implied odds and folding is wrong.

I don't have the time to play on twodimes right now, so hopefully I'll remember to look into it later if free time becomes available.

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action.

However, showdown simulations are nevertheless good for giving you a ballpark feel for the relative strength of the hands. This is why 7CSFAP has such simulations in the back - to give you a feel of how relatively good, bad, or marginal your hand is. And indeed, the closer to the river you run these type of simulations, the more valuable they become.

BTW, this hand is more accurately considered *five* way since the BI probably doesn't have a playable hand and won't be contributing any further money beyond the BI. That being said, you need a .20 equity in the pot for your "all-in" scenario to be profitable.

In the scenarios that I consider most likely, you have pretty poor EV of .171 at best. When you compare this EV to that of good starting hands (3 to lows with good str8 and/or flush possibilities or highest pairs), you realize it just isn't worth the money, even when your ante is high as scags' scenario that he asked for my opinion on.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since it's a 6-handed pot, any equity above .166 means Hero is winning if it's an all-in. So at worst, hero is a small dog according to your calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "winning" you mean there's a positive expectation, then you'd be right...too bad it's not "all-in" on 3rd. If by "small dog" you mean there's a negative expectation, I would agree as well. I don't care how small the negative expectation, if its negative, you don't want to play it. I think you may be confusing the probably of winning the pot (i.e. whether or not you're a dog) with the profitability of trying to win the pot (i.e. whether or not its profitable to play despite being a dog.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with you here. I think the following statement is false: "If by "winning" you mean there's a positive expectation, then you'd be right." Your expectation is a function of how you play out your hand, not a hot-cold simulation. When I say he's "winning", I'm saying that he expects his hand to hold up often enough that if nothing else happens (no betting, no folding), he makes money.

The argument is more subtle than staring at EVs after 3 cards. There are two things that I'm saying:

1) There may be some cases that hero is a dog. But in those cases, he's not an overwhelming dog. If things go well in the hand (which is just an if), there are a number of favorable situations that hero can find himself in. In other words, the times that hero finds himself a small dog may be offset by the times he finds himself to be a minor favorite.

2) In a game with many streets of betting, it is not necessarity wrong to put your money in the pot with an equity deficit. Since my hold'em is much stronger than my stud, I'll pull an example from there. Suppose a player raises in early position. You know that his raise is almost certainly a big pocket pair. There are a couple coldcallers and you pick up 44 on the button. You can cold call in this spot even though your preflop equity is insufficient. The reason is that you have huge implied odds if you catch a set that will more than make up for whatever preflop deficit existed.

I'll concede that I don't have enough experience to know whether this spot ACTUALLY has enough implied odds to make the call. I'm saying that your EV argument feels very unconvincing. Hero knows he is getting 8:1 to see 4th street since he's closing the action. So the question is how often 4th street will put hero in a profitable position (proftiable when playing out his hand with betting on future streets), and how profitable it will be.

The way I see it, hero has 4 pretty good two pair/trips cards and 4 fives for 3-straight, 3-low. This means there are potentially 8 very good cards for hero to pick up. He's going to see such a card better than 1 in 9 times with a fairly large buffer for the times he picks up a good card and still needs to fold.

My bold conjecture is that Hero is getting odds to try to catch perfect on 4th, and that when he catches perfect on 4th, he's in a profitable position often enough to make money.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, I dislike this sort of analysis. I don't like it in Hold'em and I really don't think it's very good for stud. The reason is that you're playing a game with many streets of betting to come, and so the question of whether you should play is one of mostly implied odds.
A better analysis of this situation would seem to be to look at the equity on 4th street after various card combinations fall. If most of the time, equity goes down, then hero is in a situation of strong reverse implied odds (putting money in the pot leads to situations where hero is expected to continue to lose) and a fold is prudent. If it stays mostly constant except it goes up in a few special cases (perhaps any card 5-7), then it's a situation of strong implied odds and folding is wrong.

I don't have the time to play on twodimes right now, so hopefully I'll remember to look into it later if free time becomes available.

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action.

However, showdown simulations are nevertheless good for giving you a ballpark feel for the relative strength of the hands. This is why 7CSFAP has such simulations in the back - to give you a feel of how relatively good, bad, or marginal your hand is. And indeed, the closer to the river you run these type of simulations, the more valuable they become.

[/ QUOTE ]

7CSFAP has simulations in the back? Maybe I missed that when I read through it, but I don't remember that at all. Perhaps you have the wrong book?

Anyway, yes, I agree that these simulations give you a feeling for things. However, I believe that your true expectation of playing a hand is tends to be higher than the equity value given in a hot-cold simulation. The reason is that (supposedly) you can play well and put less money in the pot in losing situations and get more money into the pot in profitable ones. The more streets remaining, the farther off the hot-cold simulation will be because its increased failure to take skill into account.

The times when hot-cold runs hotter than playing out the hand is when villain has a well-hidden hand that hero can't see. I would guess that this happens more frequently in hold'em than in stud because of the shared board. Also, in stud you can "see" hands developing in stud, so it's harder to have well-hidden hands.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, this hand is more accurately considered *five* way since the BI probably doesn't have a playable hand and won't be contributing any further money beyond the BI. That being said, you need a .20 equity in the pot for your "all-in" scenario to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point in terms of future action. However, in considering the all-in equity, you must still include the presence of the bring-in because he is contributing money on that street and he will see 4th.

[ QUOTE ]
In the scenarios that I consider most likely, you have pretty poor EV of .171 at best. When you compare this EV to that of good starting hands (3 to lows with good str8 and/or flush possibilities or highest pairs), you realize it just isn't worth the money, even when your ante is high as scags' scenario that he asked for my opinion on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I would dispute 'isn't worth the money' at least as far as to say that I'm not convinced by your argument that this hand is outright bad. It's certainly marginally profitable at best, but I'd need to see some other evidence to convince me that it actually loses money.

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with the thinking that if I pair my door card I wont get any action. Stud and Stud8 play a lot different. If this were stud hi than i would agree that i probably wont get much action at all, but in stud8 it is much different. People aren't going to want to jam the hell out of it with me when I pair my door, but by the same means they aren't all going to autofold as they would in stud hi. THere are TONS of times when a player will pair his baby door card that he doesn't have trips. The truth of the matter is that most of the time the player won't have trips, most of the time the player will have 3 to a low and a small pair. I think the logic behind no one giving me any action at all when I pair my door card is flawed somewhat.

Scags

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

quote:

You make some very good points in your post. I do believe
that the correct move is to fold on fifth. Welcome to the
forums.

thanks mscaqs, it's good to be here. <font color="blue"> </font>

Re: 10-20 Stud8 Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I probably wasn't clear in my post about why I was posting the twodimes scenarios. I agree with you on the issues of implied and reverse impied odds. In my opinion, the implied odds are very poor because pairingthe door 6 early (which is what most people hope for when they peel one off here) would be a major scare card, and you'd probably get very little worthwhile action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with the thinking that if I pair my door card I wont get any action. Stud and Stud8 play a lot different. If this were stud hi than i would agree that i probably wont get much action at all, but in stud8 it is much different. People aren't going to want to jam the hell out of it with me when I pair my door, but by the same means they aren't all going to autofold as they would in stud hi. THere are TONS of times when a player will pair his baby door card that he doesn't have trips. The truth of the matter is that most of the time the player won't have trips, most of the time the player will have 3 to a low and a small pair. I think the logic behind no one giving me any action at all when I pair my door card is flawed somewhat.

Scags

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, what I said was that you wouldn't get *worthwhile* action. You think that pair of 10s will chase you? You think those busted lows are gonna risk any more money beyond 5th? I just don't see it. I guess I play a tighter game.

I think this particular point is moot - those 6s are either partially or completely dead on 3rd...you aint gonna hit trip 6s enough to make this discussion worth having.

jmho.

A closer look at 4th street
 

I found a good chunk of free time, and here's what I did with it:

Starting with grb's very likely scenario, I specified Hero's next card and randomly dealt out 4th street cards to the other players.

For reference, here are the hands on third (Hero is chasing a 7 low, two 8 lows and a pair of tens high):

Seat 1: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Seat 2: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Seat 3: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 4: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
(The bring-in has been dropped)

There were 5 sets of random cards dealt to villains. The next 4 cards off the top were:

1) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
5) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero picks up a brick (K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
Equity values: .134, .175, .120, .193, .206.

Hero picks up an eight (8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
Equity values: .135, .241, .153, .182, .258.

Hero picks up a seven (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
Equity values: .084, .193, .143, .196, .241.

Hero picks up a six (6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
Equity values: .361, .480, .361, .467, .563.

Hero picks up a five (5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
Equity values: .162, .281, .174, .244, .293.

Hero picks up a non-ace low (3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
Equity values: .146, .257, .159, .205, .292.

Hero picks up an ace (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
Equity values: .153, .274, .172, .203, .294.

So what's the point of it all?

There are 16 cards nine or bigger that are still live. If hero gets one of these, he has no reason to continue past 4th.

There are 2 eights, and picking up one of these cards doesn't usually help hero enough for him to continue. The times that continuing is good are when all villains pick up bricks.

There are 2 sevens, and they don't help hero very much.

There is 1 six, and it's the magic money card for hero.

There are 3 fives, and this does give hero enough help to continue.

There are 10 non-ace lows remaining. Hero should continue with his hand as long as the seven doesn't also improve.

There are 3 aces, and they behave pretty much like the non-ace lows. Hero should continue if the seven doesn't improve.

In all, there are 20 cards that Hero can see where he will usually not play on. There are 4 money cards that make hero's hand worth playing. And there are 13 cards where hero needs to look around and see what's going on around him. Overall, since hero is getting very nice pot odds to peel for just the money cards (8:1), it looks like hero can pull out profit from this hand.

Re: A closer look at 4th street
 

very nice analysis

Re: A closer look at 4th street
 

[ QUOTE ]
I found a good chunk of free time, and here's what I did with it:

Starting with grb's very likely scenario, I specified Hero's next card and randomly dealt out 4th street cards to the other players.

For reference, here are the hands on third (Hero is chasing a 7 low, two 8 lows and a pair of tens high):

Seat 1: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Seat 2: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Seat 3: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 4: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
(The bring-in has been dropped)

There were 5 sets of random cards dealt to villains. The next 4 cards off the top were:

1) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
5) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero picks up a brick (K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
Equity values: .134, .175, .120, .193, .206.

Hero picks up an eight (8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
Equity values: .135, .241, .153, .182, .258.

Hero picks up a seven (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
Equity values: .084, .193, .143, .196, .241.

Hero picks up a six (6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
Equity values: .361, .480, .361, .467, .563.

Hero picks up a five (5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
Equity values: .162, .281, .174, .244, .293.

Hero picks up a non-ace low (3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
Equity values: .146, .257, .159, .205, .292.

Hero picks up an ace (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
Equity values: .153, .274, .172, .203, .294.

So what's the point of it all?

There are 16 cards nine or bigger that are still live. If hero gets one of these, he has no reason to continue past 4th.

There are 2 eights, and picking up one of these cards doesn't usually help hero enough for him to continue. The times that continuing is good are when all villains pick up bricks.

There are 2 sevens, and they don't help hero very much.

There is 1 six, and it's the magic money card for hero.

There are 3 fives, and this does give hero enough help to continue.

There are 10 non-ace lows remaining. Hero should continue with his hand as long as the seven doesn't also improve.

There are 3 aces, and they behave pretty much like the non-ace lows. Hero should continue if the seven doesn't improve.

In all, there are 20 cards that Hero can see where he will usually not play on. There are 4 money cards that make hero's hand worth playing. And there are 13 cards where hero needs to look around and see what's going on around him. Overall, since hero is getting very nice pot odds to peel for just the money cards (8:1), it looks like hero can pull out profit from this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for putting the time into doing those simulations. I know its a lot of work. However, I must say I'm not quite convinced. My main problem with your analysis is that its based on 5 random deals, which is simply not enough deals to base such a sweeping analysis on. Scenario #2, in particular, seems to be the dream 4th street (everyone bricks) that most puts you at possible 4th street scenarios equty &gt;.25. Your simulation of 5 seems to imply that such a dream deal would occur 20% of the time.

I also question your analysis of the 13 cards that require you to survey the field to proceed. If you could run simulations to determine the liklihood that a favorable field would present itself in those 13 other times, and then use those to determine which of the 13 are "bricks" and which are "hits" -- your argument might have more strength.

But these are still very interesting simulations, and I appreciate the time you put into making them.

-grb

Re: A closer look at 4th street
 

Nice post, def some interesting stuff in there.